Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

M.T. Cranium

The earlier peak in winds came with the front moving across Ireland -- the strong winds are going to redevelop rather quickly now as the deep low approaches. The gradient to the south of the low (out around 15-16W) is about twice as strong as the gradient last night. I feel about 99.99% sure that this is going to come in with very strong wind gusts of at least 80 mph and probably around 100 mph in some places. Yes, Malin Head will get nailed for sure, but most of Ireland is now in the path of the strong winds with this southward jog in the track.

Actually at this point, at least in my mind, is the possibility of an extreme wind event developing. This will depend on whether this low stays in the 945-950 mb range or deepens even further. An old weather map from Dec 8, 1886 shows a low that apparently followed a similar track and deepened to 930 mbs. That one caused considerable damage in Ulster and northern parts of Leinster (from what I've read).

If you recall, there was some discussion of the 1839 storm having reached 918 mbs, but I'm not sure what that was based on. It seems like an absolute theoretical minimum for the immediate coastal region (916 mbs was recorded mid-ocean a few years ago).

Not wishing to be alarmist but we are going to need to assess the actual potential as this approaches the offshore buoys and we get reliable pressure and wind readings. But satellite imagery looks ominous. That hook yesterday was an early stage of hurricane-type development of an extratropical form of an eyewall which is now visible. In this eyewall, the strongest winds are going to develop at some distance from the centre. This isn't like a tropical hurricane with a tight circulation near the core. Like last weekend's storm, although not as extensive, there is now a 100-150 km eye with reduced winds of probably no more than 20-30 knots. We'll see evidence of that later when the core comes ashore in central Scotland. Winds at South Uist and Stornoway will probably drop off considerably this afternoon.

But all of Ireland is going to miss that reduced wind core and fall into various parts of the strongest wind zone. I'm still going for peak gusts of as high as 90 to 100 knots with this at the exposed land sites and 70-80 at some others.

sunbabe08

high winds in cork during the night, woke me up, had my window opened:o nearly blew my window away

DOCARCH

Not too often do you this forecast for the Irish Sea - from UKMO shipping forecast.

Irish SeaGale warnings - Issued: 0340 UTC Thu 11 Nov

Southwesterly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 soon, veering westerly and increasing violent storm force 11 later

Mc Love

Clear skies in Limerick this morning. Blustery conditions but nothing out of the ordinary so far.
Going miss this as it develops, but hopefully be awake when its in full flow. Should be an interesting day it seems

irish1967

Big blast of thunder and lightening here round 5 am. Wind shifted and died down here at present.

Su Campu

Ships are reporting up to 8.4m wave heights off the west coast this morning. Strongest wind was reported from a ship at N56.1 W21.6, WNW 48kts.

Here are the strongest winds quoted in Met Éireann's aerodrome forecasts for the Regional Airports, valid only up to 1400 today, so end just around when this thing gets going. They're still going for nothing above 48kts gusts.

Donegal
From 8am - WSW 35 gust 45 kts

Sligo
From 9am - WSW 25 gust 40 kts

Galway
From 9am - WSW 28 gust 40 kts

Kerry
From 9am - W 28 gust 40 kts

Waterford
From 5am - W 28 gust 48 kts


Here are the TAFs for the other airports, valid up to 6am tomorrow (except Derry and Belfast City, valid to 1500). Max winds in red, with time period in format MMDD).

Dublin
EIDW 110500Z 1106/1206 24020G30KT 9999 SCT018
TEMPO 1106/1118 4000 SHRA BKN012 BKN020CB
BECMG 1106/1109 24028G45KT
BECMG 1118/1120 27025G45KT
BECMG 1122/1201 27018G28KT

Shannon
EINN 110500Z 1106/1206 24025G35KT 9999 SCT018
TEMPO 1106/1206 4000 SHRA BKN012 BKN020CB
BECMG 1106/1109 24028G45KT
BECMG 1118/1120 27025G45KT
BECMG 1121/1124 27018G28KT

Cork
EICK 110500Z 1106/1206 24020G32KT 9999 SCT018
TEMPO 1106/1121 4000 SHRA BKN012 BKN020CB
BECMG 1106/1109 24025G45KT
BECMG 1118/1120 27025G45KT
BECMG 1121/1124 27018G28KT

Connaught
EIKN 110500Z 1106/1206 24025G35KT 9999 SCT014 SCT020CB
TEMPO 1106/1206 4000 SHRA BKN010 BKN020CB
BECMG 1106/1108 24028G46KT
BECMG 1118/1120 27025G45KT
BECMG 1121/1124 27020G30KT

Belfast Aldergrove
EGAA 110457Z 1106/1206 23015KT 9999 SCT025
BECMG 1106/1110 24020G30KT
PROB30
TEMPO 1106/1107 5000 -RADZ BKN007
PROB30
TEMPO 1107/1112 7000 SHRA
BECMG 1112/1116 26032G45KT
TEMPO 1112/1206 6000 SHRA RA
BECMG 1200/1204 27025G35KT

Belfast City (valid to 1500)
EGAC 110658Z 1107/1115 22012KT 9999 SCT025
BECMG 1107/1111 23020G30KT
PROB30
TEMPO 1107/1113 7000 SHRA
TEMPO 1113/1115 23025G40KT 7000 RA

Derry Eglington (valid to 1500)
EGAE 110730Z 1107/1115 23015G25KT 9999 SCT020
TEMPO 1107/1115 7000 SHRA RA
PROB30
TEMPO 1107/1112 4000 +TSRA
BECMG 1110/1114 25028G40KT

NOTE: All these aerodrome forecasts only apply to an area of radius 5 nautical miles around the airport, so may not be indicative of conditions further afield.

Lumi

Frequent heavy blustery showers racing in over Galway Bay at the moment. The highest gust last night was 62.3km/h at 2.15AM.
Mean speeds at the moment are WSW 14.7km/h gusting to 42.8 km/h
Temp 8.7C and falling
Pressure 977hPa, falling slowly -0.4hPa/hr

snaps

Wind seems to have got up here in the last hour, changed direction as well, seems to be coming from the NW. Infact bins are blowing over now, Rubbish everywhere.

Mace head recorded a 106 km/h gust

Su Campu

What are the chances of a stingjet developing MT? Nothing showing on satellite as yet, but are conditions conducive?

irish1967

Transatlantic aircraft all about 200 miles further south than usual this morning. The ones that usually fly over here each morning have just crossed over north cork / tipp.

digme

Any ideas on what time would be the best for high winds?

Mc Love

i'd say anytime after 13.00

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

stingjet

Like the sound of that! :P

digme

hope this turns out to be a whopper.
And of course nobody gets hurt.

Cú Giobach

This was a nice picture to wake up to. (Even though I couldn't be further from Donegal without going for a swim).


Edit; the red is gone

irish1967

Su Campu wrote: »

What are the chances of a stingjet developing MT? Nothing showing on satellite as yet, but are conditions conducive?

Ooooh that sounds good.

Su Campu

Already 40 gust 57 kts at Mace Head, 30 gust 52 at Belmullet, 28 gust 52 at Malin Head at 7am

Sligo Airport 23 gust 42
Donegal Airport 24 gust 34 kts.

You can see the METARs for these two at http://www.dawn-it.com/met

M.T. Cranium

Stingjet enhancement probably more associated with a well-organized frontal squall line. This situation more of a steady-state wind field generated by intense low pressure. The way this thing is unfurling looks like a classic mega-windstorm and I would seriously advise our western readers to expect some severe to extreme conditions. The Met-E 3-hr forecast panels show sustained 55 kt winds in the trough at all latitudes likely to be relevant to landfall on this track.

Those TAF estimates look mighty conservative to me, I expect Dublin and Aldergrove may be coping with gusts to 65 knots before this is over.

I've been considering the question, "what am I missing here?" to see if anything subjectively might pop into my head (which as you know is otherwise M.T.) to put me on a downgrade-all clear train of thought, but there's nothing pulling into the station. Meanwhile, there's a lot of traffic on the upgrade-windstorm line.

I mean basically, the big picture is 945 mb low heading straight for the "sweet spot" which for windstorms is 100-250 miles north of where you're sitting. Tight jet stream gradient, unusually low 500 mb heights -- arrival mid-day -- it all adds up to windstorm. :eek:

The main question to me is this -- can it develop even beyond the rather aggressive limits we've set (that seem to be implied in the met-E forecast also)? I'm comfortable at the moment to stick with the max gust 100 mph solution which is probably 20 mph below the limit we might imagine.

Vudgie

Some strong gusts in Dublin over night and into early morning. It looks like it has calmed a bit since about 6am but lets hope it picks up again later.

Can we expect much rain to accompany the wind?

Pangea

Bad night and morning here in Donegal.
Very noisy night, interrupting my beauty sleep!!
Had bad thunder and lightening only ten minutes ago aswell.
Didnt expect it to be like this till afternoon.

DOCARCH

Pangea wrote: »

Had bad thunder and lightening only ten minutes ago aswell.

Showing up here: http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

maquiladora

Morning guys. Very interesting reading MTs posts but I have say I dont think its looking any more severe than what the models are showing. I'm not sure if MT has followed storms on sat24 before but I find it sometimes gives the illusion of a system being further south than it actually is. To my eyes now the storm looks to be where it should be and is heading due east. Also the updated met eireann weather warning had no change in max gusts.

Pangea

This has probably been posted already but just incase.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1111/weather.html

irish1967

Yeah. We had that thunder and lightening too. Showers are frequent now and exremely vicious. And its only 8 am !!

No work today - check
Coffee - check
Cigs - check
Laptop Charged - check
Iphone Charged - check
Internet connection working - check
Fire lit - check
Local radio on - check
Cat going nuts - check
Great view of town below - check

OK carmen... come on in.

mickger844posts

7.6mm rain since midnight, Max gust was 39km/ph at 01.50. Currently 10.7c, RH 82%, Pressure 980.7mb, Light Winds from the west.

More Detail @ www.waterfordcityweather.com

ellieh1

Heavy shower in Limerick city now, Hailstones mixed in!

Speak Now

Not a bad morning here in Waterford, skies have cleared and while breezy it wouldn't be any near as bad as last Sunday evening....yet.

Coles

Wind Turbine Energy Production Chart.

It'll be interesting to see if any turbines get damaged today.

irish1967

After a little lul the M4 buoy is on the way up again
http://www.marine.ie/CMSWeb/mi/FusionCharts/DatabuoyChartFiles/Gust_M4.html

Mayo Exile

Credit to NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland
Link: http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/