Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

Trogdor

Looking like another upgrade in strengh/lower central pressure on the 12z.

maquiladora

12Z NAE has the centre of the low slightly further north at 18 hours.

ninebeanrows

Depression near 945mb to our Northwest at 5am, extremely steep gradient on it's southern flank.

mikom

"And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him."

Hope not.

Iancar29

mikom wrote: »

"And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts
And I looked and behold, a pale horse
And his name that sat on him was Death
And Hell followed with him."

Less of the scary poems please, ha

Popoutman

Winger_PL wrote: »

I was thinking about the Menawn hill on the Achill, by the radio towers, 400m ASL, surely that'll be something?
Where are you heading from?

I'd say you'll be in the cloudlayer from there. Might be a bit of a problem with stability of the car if the gusts catch it wrong. Maybe a ground anchor required?

A better place may be along the Atlantic Drive..

ninebeanrows

I think there is a possibility our saving grace from an extreme event is that the low will be just beginning to fill as it moves into Scotland.

TheMilkyPirate

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think there is a possibility our saving grace from an extreme event is that the low will be just beginning to fill as it moves into Scotland.

What do you mean?

maquiladora

GFS and NAE 12Z are both slightly further north at 30 hours.

Will this be the start of the last minute downgrade? :P

Winger_PL

Popoutman wrote: »

I'd say you'll be in the cloudlayer from there. Might be a bit of a problem with stability of the car if the gusts catch it wrong. Maybe a ground anchor required?

A better place may be along the Atlantic Drive..

We'll see how it looks when we get there. Luckily the car has a fairly aerodynamical shape and the access road to the mountain will be covered from the high winds, still, I would feel a bit better if I had 2 more souls on board for that extra weight :-) So if anyone wants to go, let me know.

Obviously, if it's slippery and extremely windy I won't risk getting on the mountain in the first place. Safety first.

Hooter23

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS and NAE 12Z are both slightly further north at 30 hours.

Will this be the start of the last minute downgrade? :P

Ya but is the pressure a bit stronger so no real difference to strength of the wind:pac:

ninebeanrows

baraca wrote: »

What do you mean?

The storm reaches peak intensity of around 945mb northwest of Ireland but fills to around 955mb as it approaches Scotland.

maquiladora

Hooter23 wrote: »

Ya but is the pressure a bit stronger so no real difference to strength of the wind:pac:

Slightly weaker winds in the south. Its interesting that both GFS and NAE are showing it further north, not much difference now, but could be the start of a trend.

Min

I am surprised the UK met office has no warnings out for Northern Ireland.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Slightly weaker winds in the south. Its interesting that both GFS and NAE are showing it further north, not much difference now, but could be the start of a trend.

SHH!! Dont be saying stuff like that!

Would be fun if it was similiar to this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEUYzOBdq1c

Hooter23

maquiladora wrote: »

Slightly weaker winds in the south. Its interesting that both GFS and NAE are showing it further north, not much difference now, but could be the start of a trend.

I can't hear u:mad: lol I don't want this storm to be a let down like the last one:D

Su Campu

Pressure observations at 15Z, tieing in nicely with model output.

snowjon

Min wrote: »

I am surprised the UK met office has no warnings out for Northern Ireland.

Yes me too - I can only imagine they are predicting a more southerly movement of the strongest winds :rolleyes:

snaps

Min wrote: »

I am surprised the UK met office has no warnings out for Northern Ireland.

Perhaps they know something we dont??

maquiladora

Press down to 960 at 4pm

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2010111016&lang=en&map=AtlN

12Z NAE has it at 960 at 6pm so it might be deepening slighty faster.

Popoutman

Winger_PL wrote: »

We'll see how it looks when we get there. Luckily the car has a fairly aerodynamical shape and the access road to the mountain will be covered from the high winds, still, I would feel a bit better if I had 2 more souls on board for that extra weight :-) So if anyone wants to go, let me know.

Obviously, if it's slippery and extremely windy I won't risk getting on the mountain in the first place. Safety first.

I know the place well enough. Cycled up it on a 7" all-mountain bike, just so I could turn around and go down. Watch out for the airborne sheep, and if driving up take care at the last bend to the left, as the road becomes visible to the winds from the west. If the car is rocking significantly, don't go up - once a car starts to move in the wind there's usually not much chance of recovering it.
Going down to Dookinella (the beach at the eastern end of Keel Beach) will give you the best location to get the effects of the seas while remaining in a relaively safe location there.

Indeed, safety first - better not to be a newspaper headline.

Oliver1985

What speeds did the winds get up to in Dublin Sunday /Monday?

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Press down to 960 at 4pm

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2010111016&lang=en&map=AtlN

12Z NAE has it at 960 at 6pm so it might be deepening slighty faster.

perhaps there could be Rapid Cyclogenesis/ bombing going on:p

WolfeIRE

Clare County Council is urging home and business owners throughout the county to take precautionary steps in view of Met Eireann’s weather advisory for tomorrow, Thursday.

Heavy rain and strong winds are expected to affect much of the country. Clare County Council say it is progressing contingency arrangements in terms of additional pumping capacity and other flood alleviation measures.

Ger Dollard, Ennis Town Manager and Director of Services confirmed that river levels have increased significantly over the past two weeks, and that the Council is “continually monitoring the situation”.

Mr Dollard added: “The Council has been involved since late last week in putting in place a lot of preparatory and contingency measures on a precautionary basis due to present weather patterns. This has involved staff being specifically assigned to these measures. We continue to maintain a high level of vigilance in relation to a potential flooding situation and are assessing the most up to date data on a daily basis to best inform our response.”

Flooding advice is available on www.flooding.ie. The website features advice on identifying flooding risks, protecting property against flooding, necessary steps to be taken if a property is flooded, and assessing and repairing property damaged by flooding.

Su Campu

Oliver1985 wrote: »

What speeds did the winds get up to in Dublin Sunday /Monday?

Gusts
Dublin Airport 38kts
Casement 53kts

maquiladora

Met Eireann forecaster Eoin Sherlock told the Herald today that very strong winds are heading for Ireland with gusts of up to 105kph expected in the Dublin area tomorrow at teatime and tomorrow night.

http://www.herald.ie/weather/big-chill-is-over-but-stand-by-for-the-105kph-winds-2414017.html

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Gusts
Dublin Airport 38kts
Casement 53kts

Let's have a competition.

They are extremely conservative estimates.

I also think Dublin Airport is more exposed to Westerlies than Casement.

I will go for,

GUST Dublin Airport 67KT
GUST Casement 63KT


These are based on 925KT winds which will come to the ground in squalls.

Think it will be one of those days with Mean windspeed of around 25-35KTs but with big gusts in squalls and showers.

tylercollins

Anyone know as to why no warnings have been issued for Northern Ireland? Are they expecting something else to happen maybe?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

irish1967

GUST Dublin Airport 72KT
GUST Casement 70KT

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann forecaster Eoin Sherlock told the Herald today that very strong winds are heading for Ireland with gusts of up to 105kph expected in the Dublin area tomorrow at teatime and tomorrow night.

http://www.herald.ie/weather/big-chill-is-over-but-stand-by-for-the-105kph-winds-2414017.html

I guess that is why it is not a big story.

Last Sunday, it was Dublin could get flooded, a bit like last winter, parts of the country were suffering in December but it was not until Dublin got affected that it was taken seriously.

Nothing against Dublin but that is how these things work, like the massive snowfall in Cavan last March, barely made the news.