Prolonged cold spell on the way

I think just because it didnt snow in Kildare, dosent mean it hasnt snowed anywhere else..
:rolleyes:

Min

Harps wrote: »

"Possibly some sleet on hilltops towards the end of the week"

Why are met eireann so conservative when it comes to a mention of snow??

Theres been sleet and snow on hilltops around here for the past two weeks, surely if it gets considerabely colder then its logical to say there'll be snow

Gerry Murphy is a well known snow conservative, the more liberal snow people at Met Eireann would have said the snow word.

maquiladora

ECM ensembles will be interesting to see if this run was out on its own or has support.

Pangea

Min wrote: »

Gerry Murphy is a well known snow conservative, the more liberal snow people at Met Eireann would have said the snow word.

I wonder how Gerry would handle a snowmaggedon forecast, he would be stuttering the word snow.

Su Campu

Jake1 wrote: »

I think just because it didnt snow in Kildare, dosent mean it hasnt snowed anywhere else..
:rolleyes:

True, but I don't remember seeing many posts from people reporting snowfall. Usually this forum gets bombarded when people even get the whiff of snow in their vicinity!

Min

Pangea wrote: »

I wonder how Gerry would handle a snowmaggedon forecast, he would be stuttering the word snow.

lol, so true, we saw that last winter when he was adverse to using that word, you would think the word was **** :pac:

Harps

Su Campu wrote: »

True, but I don't remember seeing many posts from people reporting snowfall. Usually this forum gets bombarded when people even get the whiff of snow in their vicinity!

There was nothing significant around here, snow in the mountains this time of year is hardly unusual and nobody lives up there to give any reports anyway. I cant see the taller mountains from here but there was only a light covering that melted quickly in the mornings

NickDrake

Min wrote: »

Gerry Murphy is a well known snow conservative, the more liberal snow people at Met Eireann would have said the snow word.

Exactly. Sure we got some unreal pastings last Winter and he was had forecasted rain and sleet.

Bit of a clown really

Winger_PL

Here's a few seconds shot near Lough Tay around 3pm:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvfEyefq0Vk

Su Campu

Winger_PL wrote: »

Here's a few seconds shot near Lough Tay around 3pm:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvfEyefq0Vk

You look around 400m amsl up there, would that be right? Lough Tay itself is 240m.

Winger_PL

Winger_PL wrote: »

Here's a few seconds shot near Lough Tay around 3pm:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvfEyefq0Vk

Here's a bit longer version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htaNTakXWPU

Su Campu: probably, it was pretty much the same at the Sally Gap which is at 503m/1650ft ASL.

Trogdor

Su Campu wrote: »

You look around 400m amsl up there, would that be right? Lough Tay itself is 240m.

Iirc the road above lough tay there is at around 470m asl and that looks like it's just a bit further down below the road, so between about 455-465m asl i'd say:)

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

I wonder how Gerry would handle a snowmaggedon forecast, he would be stuttering the word snow.

''Wintry possibly frozen precipitation'' or something like that!!!

BEASTERLY

Apparently the 12z ECM was a wobbler at is way milder than the esembles, thank god!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

The red on is the operational run.

Deep Easterly

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Apparently the 12z ECM was a wobbler at is way milder than the esembles, thank god!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

The red on is the operational run.

How the ensemble mean looks in chart form at 240hrs:



Tending towards unsettled with Atlantic low trying to break in under Arctic airmass.

thetonynator

Bit off toopic here, but watching the news right now, we're rightly fúcked, bit of snow might help cheer us up . . :pac:

Iancar29

Wednesday: Sleet over Dublin , hopefully it'll be colder and get some snow!

WolfeIRE

thetonynator wrote: »

Bit off toopic here, but watching the news right now, we're rightly fúcked, bit of snow might help cheer us up . . :pac:

supposedly there is an awful shower heading its way to us from brussels:)

Duiske

WolfeIRE wrote: »

supposedly there is an awful shower heading its way to us from brussels:)

Hopefully they will have to give us another loan to buy mountains of salt.

maquiladora

That ecm op run looked a bit wonky at the end alright. Hopefully the op was just dodgy and not picking up on a new trend...

MetLuver

Pangea wrote: »

I wonder how Gerry would handle a snowmaggedon forecast, he would be stuttering the word snow.

He'd have to take the day off and rest in bed, someone else would have to cover for that forecast :P

Su Campu

So winger's video shows snow (albeit a bit wet-looking) at around 450-500m today, but we'll say it was melted at 400m. Some important parameters at the time:

850hPa temp around -5°C,
theta-e around 16°C,
theta-w around 3-4°C
wet bulb zero 400-500m
dewpoint around 2°C
850-1000 thickness ~1300dm.

This would tie in well with the parameters I would use for snow at certain elevations, namely:

Elevation...Theta-E...Theta-W
0m................+8...............-1.......thickness sub-1280dm....wet-bulb zero 0-50m...dewpoint 0 or below
100m...........+10.............0
150m...........+12.............+1
250m...........+14.............+2
350m...........+17.............+4

At a push the GFS is hinting at theta-e around 10°C, theta-w 1°C, dewpoints around 0°C and thickness around 1290dm by next Friday night, meaning no snow below say 100-150m up to then.

From Saturday it has these values fall far enough to suggest snow at all levels, but I'm still not convinced that will happen, and I'd say we'll see that confirmed in the next day or so as it gets pushed out on each run. I think the ECM has a better grasp of the Norwegian low, which would bring our air cold further west, and hence more modified, before reaching us. But if the GFS turns out to be right, then I would be much more leaning towards low-level (below 100m) snow. Now that would be something!

arctictree

Su Campu wrote: »

So winger's video shows snow (albeit a bit wet-looking) at around 450-500m today, but we'll say it was melted at 400m. Some important parameters at the time:

850hPa temp around -5°C,

Looking at the charts for today, 850s look around -2 or -3 at most. -5 air doesn't hit us for a while yet.

maquiladora

No huge change on the 18Z GFS for us out to 120....

Spoke too soon, cold getting pushed back again at 138.

Su Campu

arctictree wrote: »

Looking at the charts for today, 850s look around -2 or -3 at most. -5 air doesn't hit us for a while yet.

No, around -5°C

StereoLove

There's gonna be another Big Freeze:rolleyes:

MUSEIST

Always remember when reading the charts that from about 96hrs+ the upper temps are always exagerated. So, if its showing -10's for next weekend you can assume that its will be only -5's as it approaches that time. That should be a rule people adhere too to avoid hopeless optimism.

maquiladora

Epic blizzard for high ground at least at 216, lol

maquiladora

GFS mean isnt too bad in FI

Here is the mean for 156 :

WolfeIRE

Very excited about the latest run.

Cold spell will be hanging around for longer than the 7-10 days being indicated up to last night. Snow potential will increase as the week goes on.