Prolonged cold spell on the way

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

They (ME) are looking at the exact same charts as we are. We are not dependent on what ME says so I don't understand why people keep bringing it up. For people with internet access ME is pretty much redundant in terms of national forecasting for us on here. We have enough information to come to our own conclusions.

Rubbish. They have a lot more ECMWF and HiRLAM parameters to look at. Are you saying a member state only gets to view the limited free output we get online?

Most people here use the GFS because there is a huge range of parameters to choose from, and all for free. The ECMWF only allows very limited output into the public domain. As far as I know Met Eireann don't use the GFS, and probably for good reason.

You're also leaving out the most important assets of all - knowledge and experience. Are you saying you know as much as Aidan Nulty, Gerald Fleming, Evelyn, Jean, etc. etc? They've been doing this for an awfully long time, and between them all in there they'll know when it will snow and when it won't.

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

They (ME) are looking at the exact same charts as we are. We are not dependent on what ME says so I don't understand why people keep bringing it up. For people with internet access ME is pretty much redundant in terms of national forecasting for us on here. We have enough information to come to our own conclusions.

I'd have to disagree with you there darkman. At the end of the day they are fully qualified professionals. And apart from that, surely they would have access to higher levels of detail on the ECMWF and HIRLAM outputs?

Still doesn't mean we can't make up our own forecasts and have a bit of harmless fun on here, but I disagree that ME is redundant.

ninebeanrows

It's all about consensus and think the ECM ensemble mean on Wetterzentrale is a great new addition.

gothwalk

I'm hearing a second-hand report of a flurry of snow in Blanchardstown this morning - not sticking, of course, but visible nonetheless.

Trogdor

I think while they may see it happening, they're not comfortable putting their necks on the line yet and coming out and forecasting it, as it's still all subject to change. Members of the forum can forecast as they wish without any repercussions whereas ME can not, they need to be as accurate as possible and if they are not full confident on a development 5-6 days out it's probably best for them not to mention it. I do not agree at all that ME are redundant for those with access to weather charts though!

Su Campu wrote: »

No, I meant that ME haven't issued snow for the weekend as they don't see it happening.....yet.

They do mention "wintry showers" on the east coast from as early as tonight though;)

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd have to disagree with you there darkman. At the end of the day they are fully qualified professionals. And apart from that, surely they would have access to higher levels of detail on the ECMWF and HIRLAM outputs?

Still doesn't mean we can't make up our own forecasts and have a bit of harmless fun on here, but I disagree that ME is redundant.

True Maq. Also let us not forget that it is data from met eireann stations that is feed into the ECMWF model that makes it the best medium range NWP in the world!

Speak Now

darkman2 wrote: »

They (ME) are looking at the exact same charts as we are. We are not dependent on what ME says so I don't understand why people keep bringing it up. For people with internet access ME is pretty much redundant in terms of national forecasting for us on here. We have enough information to come to our own conclusions.

Now in fairness to ME they are the professionals, yes we have plenty of information to come to our own conclusions but i'd hardly call them redundant. I suspect you might have said that with tounge firmly in cheek knowing very well who'd bite :pac:

maquiladora

gothwalk wrote: »

I'm hearing a second-hand report of a flurry of snow in Blanchardstown this morning - not sticking, of course, but visible nonetheless.

For what it's worth, this twitter user said it was "snowing" in North Dublin about half an hour ago.

http://twitter.com/Partlyfallen

darkman2

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd have to disagree with you there darkman. At the end of the day they are fully qualified professionals. And apart from that, surely they would have access to higher levels of detail on the ECMWF and HIRLAM outputs?

They have as much detail on the models they use as we have on the GFS. No more and no less.

It is remarkable how comfortably and accurately we can forcast here. 10 years ago everything was dependent on what an organisation - experienced but incompetent like everything else in this country - said on tv and radio.

glossy

gothwalk wrote: »

I'm hearing a second-hand report of a flurry of snow in Blanchardstown this morning - not sticking, of course, but visible nonetheless.

not to sure about that, but we did have a good couple of hail showers in my part..

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

They have as much detail on the models they use as we have on the GFS. No more and no less.

It is remarkable how comfortably and accurately we can forcast here. 10 years ago everything was dependent on what an organisation - experienced but incompetent like everything else in this country - said on tv and radio.

Yes, but the GFS is a notoriously worse performer than the ECMWF in these situations, so why do you insist on disregarding the extra info they have, coupled with their knowledge of Irish weather, and state that you're as good as them. :rolleyes:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

And so you should! for all of Gerry's unpopularity for not mentioning the S word in accordance to our whims he tends be fairly spot on when wintry showers are being forecast as to what type of showers they will be.

i'd have to disagree paddy1, while of course he should not base his forecast on our whims:p, he has in the past downplayed the chances of snow only to be proven wrong. he was at it again recently, talking of sleet on the mountains, when snow was already being reported on the mountains.

anyway, after reading the uk metoffice update, is there any chance we can bring christmas forward a week or two? it would be a sickener if it stayed cold up to the week before Christmas, for it to only then get mild.

delw

gothwalk wrote: »

I'm hearing a second-hand report of a flurry of snow in Blanchardstown this morning - not sticking, of course, but visible nonetheless.

heard something similar in artane

roryc1

A bit off topic but the irish sea is making some big showers for the east
http://www.sat24.com/gb

meathgal2010

Was driving from navan to sligo this morn and there was snow at the side of the road dublin side of carrick on shannon. Got very excited ! Was on a call to a collegue and randomly shouted snow he he

ninebeanrows

Heavy Hail shower here now, good signs that these things coming off the Irish sea can be quite juicy with the higher SST's.

darkman2

Thunder and hail here to report near Malahide.


This is not unusual in these flows in October and November. One can just imagine the type of spark much colder air traveling over the Irish sea will spark toward the weekend.

nacho libre

meathgal2010 wrote: »

Was driving from navan to sligo this morn and there was snow at the side of the road dublin side of carrick on shannon. Got very excited ! Was on a call to a collegue and randomly shouted snow he he

i don't mean to sound cheeky, but are you sure it wasn't the remnants of a heavy hail shower? as i don't think even the more optimistic experts on here were predicting snow till about mid- week onwards

MUSEIST

I'm liking the models. Bit by bit things seem to be snowing in the right direction.

maquiladora

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Dec 2010 to Tuesday 21 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here.

Updated: 1200 on Mon 22 Nov 2010

Happy days. UKMO still going for only a small chance of the cold breaking down before Dec 21st in the UK.

Su Campu

The cloud cleared from the mountains there 20mins ago and there was a thin layer of lying snow or hail on Kippure, down to around 650m I reckon. It seems to be melted now.

Diddler1977

gothwalk wrote: »

I'm hearing a second-hand report of a flurry of snow in Blanchardstown this morning - not sticking, of course, but visible nonetheless.

Can't say I saw any snow here all morning

delw

darkman2 wrote: »

Thunder and hail here to report near Malahide.


This is not unusual in these flows in October and November. One can just imagine the type of spark much colder air traveling over the Irish sea will spark toward the weekend.

yeah heard the thunder aswell

Sierra Oscar

So, snowy conditions for canvassing?

MUSEIST

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So, snowy conditions for canvassing?

Good frost bite inducing conditions, excellent:D

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

i'd have to disagree paddy1

You have the audacity to disagree with me Nacho??? TO THE GALLOWS with you!! :mad:


Ah yeah, he may have not been 100% spot on 1% of the time but in general he calls these set ups quite well overall.

Su Campu

Current weather and dewpoints at midday today.

DOCARCH

darkman2 wrote: »

Thunder and hail here to report near Malahide.

Showing up here: http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

nacho libre

http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/weather-faq/a-guide-on-how-to-forecast-snow-in-ireland/

this is a very useful link for lamp post watchers who maybe new to the forum and the seasonal visitors. it's a good explanation for those times when you despair that it's cold enough to freeze the rats but only cold rain falls

ellieh1

Here is a pic of our car this morning.....