Prolonged cold spell on the way

Scubadevils

Frequent heavy hail showers here in Lusk this morning...

Redsunset

I remember when the Great Lakes were above normal temps and when the Arctic airmass flowed over them they created an even more intense snowstorm than usual.

Im not saying this is going to happen in our scenario however would be good to see.

Just wanted to say to the gurus on here, I think you all are fantastic helping us plebs understand the weather a bit more.
I have learned so much from you .

So thanks, Deep E , Su Campu, Weathercheck, Beasterly, RedSunset Darkman,
and of course the legend that is MT Cranium. If I missed anyone sorry, but you all know who you are.

hotwhiskey

The BBC weather at 1.30 just confirmed it will be getting colder as the week goes on and staying bitterly cold well into next week.

Deep Easterly

To get us all in the mood for the up and coming cool spell a look back at The Meteorological Service's (before it was re-named Met Eireann) weather summary for Jan 1963, published in the Irish Independant on the 2nd Feb 1963:

kakee

Posted by some one on the cycling forum http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htaNTakXWPU

I can't believe its that time of the year again already. Looking here for signs of snow for Tipperary, trying to read charts I knew nothing about, checking the forum to see was snow on the way or not. I love it !!!!!!!!!!!!

WolfeIRE

sky news

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Article/201009115821839

Iancar29

kakee wrote: »

Posted by some one on the cycling forum http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htaNTakXWPU

I can't believe its that time of the year again already. Looking here for signs of snow for Tipperary, trying to read charts I knew nothing about, checking the forum to see was snow on the way or not. I love it !!!!!!!!!!!!

Eh thats winger_pl's video, he's a regular to this forum .

WolfeIRE

kakee wrote: »

Posted by some one on the cycling forum http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htaNTakXWPU

great video alright. that was in fact recorded by our 'Storm Chasing' weather forum member Winger_PL.

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

I remember when the Great Lakes were above normal temps and when the Arctic airmass flowed over them they created an even more intense snowstorm than usual.

Im not saying this is going to happen in our scenario however would be good to see.

Gotta love that lake effect snow...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1N99WNTF_8

Redsunset

maquiladora wrote: »

Gotta love that lake effect snow...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1N99WNTF_8

Dude....... Where's my Car!!!!!!!!!!!!

And

Min

Here on the Castlecomer plateau we had no frost this morning, it was cloudy and at 230asl we had a rain shower. I cannot say what fell during the night but it doesn't feel as cold today so far as it did yesterday.

I expect as the week goes on and temperatures to fall that it will be a different story. Easterly winds or a variation of easterly winds is always good for showers around here.

It is amazing though, one could be in Kilkenny city and it might be a rain shower but drive about 5 miles onto the hills and you could have snow. What I like is when it is raining and as you go further up you start to see a few flakes in the shower, continue on home and it's snowing.
There is a strange thing though around here, in winter there seems to be a natural snow line in that it is always near the same height locations that the snow stays while about 50 metres lower than than my location and the snow seems to go quickly.

My father says that in 1947 that when in Kilkenny they would say 'you still have the snow up there' but then when the thaw came they got it all in floods.

skipz

If i get snow here on the Louth coastline and it sticks over the next week, it will be a bit amazing.
I cant see it happening but ill have to keep a eye on the Cooley/Mourne mountains as a guide to what to expect. When i see snow on the lower levels of the mountains its a good sign for me.
Nothing on them now, but some nice convection happening out in the Irish sea.

arctictree

Bucketing rain here for the last few days.

It seems to be slightly warmer today than yesterday for some reason. 4.5c ATM.

BTW, there was snow on some of the mountains this morning. Looked like it was down to around 500M

Elmo5

rain here too all day, no frost. Had one big shower with a little lightning.

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

BTW, there was snow on some of the mountains this morning. Looked like it was down to around 500M

Lug is completely white looking at it from the Arklow direction.

Iancar29

Another clap of thunder in N Dublin

maquiladora

Northern Scotland & parts of NE England getting have an advisory now...

Heavy Snow Thu 25 Nov

There is a moderate risk of severe weather on Thursday.

There is potential for snow showers to become frequent in places giving localised accumulations of 2-5 cm of snow inland with 10 cm on high ground.

Icy stretches may develop on untreated surfaces.

Issued at: 1054 Mon 22 Nov


Blizzards & Heavy Snow Fri 26 Nov

There is a moderate risk of severe weather on Friday.

There is potential for snow showers to become frequent in places giving further localised accumulations of 2-5 cm of snow inland with 10 cm on high ground. In addition, a strengthening northerly wind may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting, particularly on high ground.

Icy stretches may develop on untreated surfaces.

Issued at: 1102 Mon 22 Nov

DominoDub

Need some snow to put a smile on my face !:( ...sad day

in the mean time until then more Doom & Gloom ...:D

ScallowayLass

We have a weather warning just put in place for Friday, have to say it feels strangely mild and calm here just now, no wind.

Musicman2000

Just posted over on Netweather


Winter Forecast 2010-2011
(The Watcher)

This forecast I have constructed using sound knowledge of Global and Hemispheric values and their effects in long term patterns. I have also factored in SST anomalies, amplification of the jet stream and its counterpart in upstream patterns (using an evolving logic) and a small dose of Solar influence.



A La Nina (Strong) dominated winter coupled with a moderate – strong and a high tendency of upstream amplification in the jet stream suggests HP will be dominant in certain areas this winter. Favourable areas are the North Atlantic, Northwest Europe and the UK (in particular). However, at certain junctions I suspect (using an evolution of jet stream patterns) we will see 2 significant periods of a more mobile pattern within the early and late winter periods. Solar influence will be less of an influence this year as we see a slightly stronger period than the minimum of last, although as we head towards a max in 2013 of a somewhat weaker cycle we do have a small helping hand in bringing the colder aspects of winter to light. Let us move on to a little bit of forecasting now shall we.





DECEMBER:

First week of December will begin on a cold-very cold note with High Pressure in situ to the Northwest of the UK with Low Pressure to or on the SE of the UK. Significant snowfall could occur to areas of the NE/E/SE of the UK in the first half of this period, although the SE will tend to be more liable for rain/sleet. Other areas will likely see wintry showers (mainly of snow), most frequent on coastal areas. Frost will be widespread at night, especially to the North and West. Temperatures will be bitterly cold and struggling to get above freezing for most areas.

During the mid – latter half of the first week winds will back WNW-W as a West based -NAO sets in, allowing High Pressure to develop to the SW of the UK whilst Low pressure to the NW pushes SE. An unsettled period for the bulk of the UK will last for around 10 days with the Jet stream pushing North over the UK, bringing wet and windy weather at times and temperatures 3/4c above average by day, with mild nights where cloud cover persists. Although the SW will favour drier weather at times as the High Pressure gets close to the UK. Overnight frosts will be rare during this period.

Into the 3rd week of December we still start to see High Pressure ridging towards Greenland again from the Mid Atlantic. Winds will veer Northwest bringing an initial cold showery spell for Northern and Western areas while the East and Southeast remain drier. As the week progresses it will quickly become colder as an area of Arctic Northerly air heads South over the UK with showers quickly turning to Snow for areas in the North of Scotland and then progressing South to most areas partial to the strong Northerly airflow. The South and Southwest will remain driest overall, but will still see the chance of wintry precipitation at times.


The Christmas period will see a settled spell begin to push over the UK from the SW, winds will become slack allowing frost to become hard and severe at times for many areas, especially central UK. High pressure will likely dominate this period with a possibility of only the far North and SW seeing the possibility of any precipitation at times. Fog and cloud will be extensive in SE areas of the UK.


DECEMBER CET: 3.8c

RAINFALL: 85%


JANUARY:

Beginning on a dry note, especially for Central and Eastern areas, but only a few days in and a breakdown from the SW will occur pushing High Pressure to the North East of the UK and bringing a very brief period of very mild temperatures, wet weather and possibly some strong winds, especially to the S and SE of the UK. This unsettled spell will push into the near continent leaving the North and East to become drier whilst the South and West will see Low Pressure close to the SW at times pushing Eastwards and bringing some wet weather. Winds will be from a general ESE/E/ENE direction during this period and things will cool down from the North and East, bringing colder weather as we approach the mid month period. By mid month the whole of the UK will see colder air sourced from the East and High Pressure situ close to NE Scotland will mean Northern areas will remain driest while the South will be most likely to see precipitation (of a wintry nature) at times.



After mid month we are likely to see this colder spell break down from the West once again with the chance of some significant snowfall in the North and East of the UK as it comes up against the colder air mass in these regions. We are then likely to see a period of Low pressures pushing through the UK, bringing a real mix of weather for all areas, with milder air on the leading edge followed by brief Northerly airflows behind we can expect to see some Wintry showers following any spells of rain, especially for Northern and Western areas. I expect temperatures in this period to be average. As we approach the end of January things will generally settle again for the SW of the UK as the Azores ridges towards us, leaving the Northeast in the brunt of a colder and unsettled period for the remainder.



JANUARY CET: 3.4c

RAINFALL: 110%


FEBRUARY:

Beginning settled in the South and West with the North and East colder and more unsettled with some snowfall for Scotland and NE England. To end the first week High pressure will begin to develop to our Northwest introducing a colder Northeasterly flow for all areas of the UK with some further significant accumulations likely in Northeastern areas as the cold air pools to our NE and spills down over the UK. I expect this colder period to last for 8-12 days with the winds veering between North and Easterly directions during the period, bringing snowfall to most areas of the UK with only the far SW liable to remain the driest. During the second half we will see a breakdown of the colder weather to be replaced with LP to the South and West of the UK, possibility of a snowy breakdown most likely in Central and Northern areas. Once again I expect the jet stream to appear over head or slightly North of the UK meaning a Westerly dominant regime for us all. Temperatures will be generally be average-slightly mild in the latter half and rainfall could be exceptional for Southwestern areas, especially Wales and Ireland. So an unsettled end to February seems most likely with the far North and Hills having the likelihood of seeing any wintry precipitation.



FEBRUARY CET: 4.2c

RAINFALL: 150%



Into March and there is a good possibility we will see a return of some wintry weather into the Second week with a potent Northerly bringing snow to Scotland and some Central areas of the UK, however settling snow is not likely at Low Levels.

maquiladora

Slight upgrade 850 temps on the 12Z GFS thats coming out.

-6 line down to the southwest coast at 96 hours. On the 06Z run it was still -2 in the southwest corner at the same point in time.

maquiladora

12Z UKMO at 72 hours brings in the cold faster than the GFS :

lucy2010

Deleted User wrote: »

Lug is completely white looking at it from the Arklow direction.

& from Bray direction - got all excited

arctictree

12z GFS looks good. -10 uppers here by the weekend. All locations at risk from snowfall but esp eastern and northern areas.

TBH, snow line in the east is now at around 600 or 700 Meters. This just has to come down over the next few days...

carlmwan

lucy2010 wrote: »

& from Bray direction - got all excited

could you take a picture id lve to see:D

ninebeanrows

UKM is tasty my boys.

GFS too.


UMK Charts

JanuarySnowstor

Not sure where everyone is gone but the UKMO would give us a snowfest.
Bitter bitter cold next wkd whether or which

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM is tasty my boys.

GFS too.


UMK Charts

Funny how that low over Southern/Central GB on the UKMO charts you posted is an extremely positive feature for us, whereas it would pose a serious threat to any significant accumulations in Southern England. Bitter winds here with precipitation feeding in off the irish sea

maquiladora

Will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECM shows something similar to the UKMO.