Prolonged cold spell on the way

darkman2

The 12z GFS from 100hrs onwards does give quite an appreciable amount of snow especially to the East. Disruptive amounts. Have to be watched very carefully. The UKMO is somewhat similar. Even at as little as 60hrs there is a snow risk.

WolfeIRE

ECM has cold spell digging in out to 240hrs.

lucy2010

carlmwan wrote: »

could you take a picture id lve to see:D

Ill try go back over southern cross tomorrow & take ... very pretty looking.... May get up to Lugala over next few days hopefully ( Camelots filming up there ) will take tons of pics if i do

I was refering to lugnaquilla mountain by the way not lugalla.
You can't see lugnaquilla from the southern cross.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

ECM has cold spell digging in out to 240hrs.

If and it's a big if,it carried on that far,the 850 temps can fall back to -7's and -8's and you'd still have coastal snow as by that stage you'd have polar/scandi air at surface levels in situ over Ireland.

Winger_PL

WolfeIRE wrote: »

great video alright. that was in fact recorded by our 'Storm Chasing' weather forum member Winger_PL.

That was actually quite a surprise, I've had friends over from Poland for the weekend and we went into mountains as my friend wanted to propose to his girlfriend. That did happen, despite the completely unexpected snow. The video was recorded while we were waiting for the couple-to-be to show up.

Saganist

RTE just mentioned the S word..
:eek::eek:

saxo_vtr

Gerry Murphy says sleet and snow at the weekend!:):):)

Redsunset

Yeah on hills,to be honest it still looks all very tame to me.

gally74

saturday looks like the day,

rugby and snow!!!

maquiladora

Surprised nobody has mentioned the12z ecm yet...

roryc1

Yeah, they look ok to me, pushing the real cold back a bit

JanuarySnowstor

redsunset wrote: »

Yeah on hills,to be honest it still looks all very tame to me.

The charts are far from tame. The gfs shows it quite dry but bitterly cold with nightime temps down to -8, the UKMO and ECM less bitter but much more ppn around which looks likely to be mainly of snow.
Met Eireann now on board aswell, in fact even more than that with Gerry Murphy even on side.
My own opinion for what it's worth is that the odds are shortening on a significant snow event this weekend for all areas!
Incredible charts that would bring the country to a halt!!

Redsunset

maquiladora wrote: »

Surprised nobody has mentioned the12z ecm yet...

I don't see anything great bout them. The wind shifts to North so nothing for me inland

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Surprised nobody has mentioned the12z ecm yet...

Still in shock after seeing it maq!:pac:

Looks great for the east coast, unlike that RTE forecast, 0 chance of snow for the east by the looks of their charts!

Quick question, does the GFS play down the shower activity and underestimate how far inland they will get, certainly did for today and yesterday.

maquiladora

The gfs and ukmo will probably follow the ecm. I think we will be on the wrong side of marginal at low level with ecm uppers 2 to 4 milder than the other models were showing.

Could just be cold rain and sleet for most of us....

Redsunset

Yeah i will say for November it's fantastic to see such colder than normal temps but as regards something epic well,tis not happening in my eyes. No whiteouts for lower levels,hills caught in heavy showers will get a good pasting alright.

carlmwan

Winger_PL wrote: »

That was actually quite a surprise, I've had friends over from Poland for the weekend and we went into mountains as my friend wanted to propose to his girlfriend. That did happen, despite the completely unexpected snow. The video was recorded while we were waiting for the couple-to-be to show up.

lol i thought i heard people talking polish in the video ha i thought i was going mad

nacho libre

i don't see how he(Gerry Murphy) is on side, when he stated the following:
" Showers will be more wintry by that stage with sleet, and possibly snow on the hills"

anyway we may as well call it all off if redsunset isn't going to get any snow:P

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

The gfs and ukmo will probably follow the ecm. I think we will be on the wrong side of marginal at low level with ecm uppers 2 to 4 milder than the other models were showing.

Could just be cold rain and sleet for most of us....

Purely wrong IMO, ECM always underestimates 850hpa temps and there are still sufficient for snow to sea level for most of the time.

ltdslipdiff

Is that a big ramp I see in the distance?:P

BEASTERLY

Weathercheck wrote: »

Purely wrong IMO, ECM always underestimates 850hpa temps and there are still sufficient for snow to sea level for most of the time.

Do you think the GFS has a proper grasp on percipitation, if so the East may give up on seeing snow, even mountains.

Is there a better model for percipitation?

carlmwan

I hope we get snow even a bit i miss the snow from last year but i just have a gut feeling most of us wont see any of the white stuff HOPE I AM WRONG

Kippure

This is a better set-up then October 2003. We will see snow, mostly on the north and eastern coasts.

BEASTERLY

Kippure wrote: »

This is a better set-up then October 2003. We will see snow, mostly on the north and eastern coasts.

But the GFS shows no percipitation for the east at all until 180hrs.

Kippure

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But the GFS shows no percipitation for the east at all until 180hrs.

Right now there are showers coming in off the irish sea of rain hail and sleet.

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Snow on higher ground. Its going to get colder through the week.........


The models are only a guide really.

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But the GFS shows no percipitation for the east at all until 180hrs.

meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=2

DarkJager

carlmwan wrote: »

I hope we get snow even a bit i miss the snow from last year but i just have a gut feeling most of us wont see any of the white stuff HOPE I AM WRONG

I hope you are right I don't want to see any of that white satan fluff this year at all, its just too much to work around. Too much driving to do and not a car I'd really want to trust my life to on an icy snow covered road.

kenmc

DarkJager wrote: »

I hope you are right I don't want to see any of that white satan fluff this year at all, its just too much to work around. Too much driving to do and not a car I'd really want to trust my life to on an icy snow covered road.

Wierdo. Get out.

Yrag2E

had an intense hail storm about an hour ago in Dublin 20.