Cowen to address the nation

OPENROAD

Mark200 wrote: »

If the EU goes down, then we go down. It is, after all, the EU (with help from the IMF) who are giving us this bailout.

And possibly the UK who may be paying double for us. i.e. once through the EU fund and secondly a separate additional contribution.

skelliser

<Ollie> wrote: »

You can't leave a major bank to roll over overnight, that's just preposterous. All the major bankers met him that night and blackmailed him. The country would have collapsed the following day. He already explained his decisions to keep the bank running and later revealed the information that only came to light in the preceding months. He was in the worst situation of any political representative in living memory.

Wrong.

Dept of Finance officials, the people who advise the gov. arrived that night with the paperwork to nationalise Anglo, (the correct solution btw) and gaurantee the other banks.
Cowen is rumoured to have said "WE ARE NOT ****ING NATIONALISING ANGLO!!!"

A year later we nationalised anglo.

Buford T Justice

<Ollie> wrote: »

You can't leave a major bank to roll over overnight, that's just preposterous. All the major bankers met him that night and blackmailed him. The country would have collapsed the following day. He already explained his decisions to keep the bank running and later revealed the information that only came to light in the preceding months. He was in the worst situation of any political representative in living memory.

And blackmail in itself is a crime. What happened to the bankers? Big cheques and golden handshakes and they buggared off to other countries. now That's action for ya.

Revolution9

Mark200 wrote: »

Well considering the finance ministers who have said he did the right thing are together giving Ireland almost €100bn of their money, I'd imagine they gave the issue thorough consideration.

Wouldn't they prefer not to have to hand over that money? Endanger the future of the Euro and all that.
The decision they agreed with has led to, or at least hastened, the arrival of the IMF and the lending of almost €100bn of their money and potentially put the future of the euro at risk.
A thoroughly considered decision? "The right decision at the time" as you put it?

Barristers running our finances rather than economists and jumping at the advice of external forces. Amateur stuff.

skelliser

Mark200 wrote: »

Yep, anything that goes against the narrative that anything FF do must be wrong, based solely on their party being FF, must of course be made up.

Nope.

I wasnt talking about FF. Im talking about europe.

FF are a none entity now. finished.

AskMyChocolate

Jake1 wrote: »

Would you mind if we all used this and sent a complaint to RTE?
They deserve to get thousands of complaints about this.

Done. Got an automatic response saying they'll respond asap. I would imagine they'll be very busy though.

lmaopml

ascanbe wrote: »

This 'bailout' for Ireland is simply money being put through our govt. into our banks so that they can pay off their debts to foreign banks and the ECB and so that the Irish taxpayer is left with the bill.
The reason we haven't been able to borrow on international markets is because no-one sane would wish to invest in a country that has such crushing, insane levels of sovereign debt; debt that is the result of the blanket bank guarantee/Anglo-bailout.
This 'bailout' will only mire us even further in debt.

'Anglo' the most hated word in Ireland and rightly so, is not even 'comparable' to the cost of simply running this country for a year. Something 'had' to give.....

The EU are not out to 'get' us in our beds at night - we made monumental mistakes as far as regulation was concerned and ignored the 50 out of 100 economists that saw it coming etc. etc. and now write lots of colums or star in TV documentaries, but the simple fact is, we're left with it now, and it needn't be the worst thing ever in our history, or mean that we should start digging Wolfe Tone up just yet to turn him on his front and all that stuff..

At the time when the guarantee was given many people hailed it many people didn't! The arguement as to whether we would be worse or better off etc. would need a fortune teller or somebody who could transmigrate between the multiverse where it happened and where it didn't...

Either way we're left with it. We're angry, pissed off etc. etc. but let's get real and deal with it...

th3 s1aught3r

I wonder what 'restructuring' the banks actually means. It sounds like they will be taken over or merged. It sounds like a load of job losses for the ordinary bank staff

The Pontiac

skelliser wrote: »

Wrong.

Dept of Finance officials, the people who advise the gov. arrived that night with the paperwork to nationalise Anglo, (the correct solution btw) and gaurantee the other banks.
Cowen is rumoured to have said "WE ARE NOT ****ING NATIONALISING ANGLO!!!"

A year later we nationalised anglo.

So who was in control that night, the Taoiseach or the Minister for Finance (who was only in power a few months)? Lenihan has already revealed there were wrong decisions made. The Taoiseach is the leader of the country and will ultimately make the final decision.

OPENROAD

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I wonder what 'restructuring' the banks actually means. It sounds like they will be taken over or merged. It sounds like a load of job losses for the ordinary bank staff

That would be my understanding, heard it said we have too many banks for a country of our size.

Monty Burnz

Mark200 wrote: »

If the EU goes down, then we go down. It is, after all, the EU (with help from the IMF) who are giving us this bailout.

And if Anglo was allowed go bust, confidence would have instantly evaporated in the other Irish banks on the international market. The results could have been worse than what we've heard today.

The EU would not have gone down if Anglo had failed! Wow, do you really believe what you wrote there?!! Do you know anything about finance at all?

Secondly, if we let Anglo fail, we wouldn't need the frigging bailout in the first place!

The propagandists are out in force now...

themadhair

OPENROAD wrote: »

That would be my understanding, heard it said we have too many banks for a country of our size.

Does the same apply to, say, Switzerland or the Caymann Islands? Just sayin'.

efb

<Ollie> wrote: »

So who was in control that night, the Taoiseach or the Minister for Finance (who was only in power a few months)? Lenihan has already revealed there were wrong decisions made. The Taoiseach is the leader of the country and will ultimately make the final decision.

As an Irish Mammy would say- 'they're's two of you in it''

Neither is exonerated-both guilty

skelliser

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I wonder what 'restructuring' the banks actually means. It sounds like they will be taken over or merged. It sounds like a load of job losses for the ordinary bank staff

it means that allied irish banks is toast.
broken up and merged with bank of ireland.

Cheap Thrills!

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I wonder what 'restructuring' the banks actually means. It sounds like they will be taken over or merged. It sounds like a load of job losses for the ordinary bank staff

I heard somewhere (can't remember where) that they'll merge AIB and BOI, letting half the staff go.

Monty Burnz

<Ollie> wrote: »

You can't leave a major bank to roll over overnight, that's just preposterous. All the major bankers met him that night and blackmailed him. The country would have collapsed the following day. He already explained his decisions to keep the bank running and later revealed the information that only came to light in the preceding months. He was in the worst situation of any political representative in living memory.

You don't have a clue mate. Hundreds of major banks were let go in the US in the last 2 years. Did you hear of any states going bust? No, nor did I. Because the banks debts were not nationalised. I guess they didn't get the memo from Fianna Failure HQ.

skelliser

It seems that some posters here are the part of the 17% of FF supporters that lurk in this country.
You know who you are.

Anyways im off to bed but il leave ye with this little qoute.

the cheapest bailout in the world

-Brian Lenihan 23 oct 2008

Now if you still support/beleive them after reading that and watching todays events then im sorry, dont take it personally, but you are a fool.

Mark200

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The EU would not have gone down if Anglo had failed! Wow, do you really believe what you wrote there?!! Do you know anything about finance at all?

Secondly, if we let Anglo fail, we wouldn't need the frigging bailout in the first place!

The propagandists are out in force now...

As a poster already stated, all the European banks are interconnected. If Anglo went down, there would be banks in Germany and other European countries that would suddenly find themselves down by billions of Euro. On top of that, Anglo going down would have hugely increased the possibility of AIB, BOI or other Irish financial institutions of going down too.

Obviously the illustration of the EU going down is almost an exaggeration, but chain reactions of these kind of things can lead to very serious consequences...

The same reason why the EU pressured Ireland to take the bailout. They had to get rid of this problem before it came bigger than the EU could handle.

OPENROAD

themadhair wrote: »

Does the same apply to, say, Switzerland or the Caymann Islands? Just sayin'.

Don't know, only passing on what I heard on the news, economically how do we compare to the above places?

Mark200

skelliser wrote: »

It seems that some posters here are the part of the 17% of FF supporters that lurk in this country.
You know who you are.

Anyways im off to bed but il leave ye with this little qoute.


-Brian Lenihan 23 oct 2008

Now if you still support/beleive them after reading that and watching todays events then im sorry, dont take it personally, but you are a fool.

No doubt you'll sleep well assuming that anyone who disagrees with you must automatically be a supporter of FF. Seems like a tactic that far too many posters on this forum like to use.

ascanbe

lmaopml wrote: »

'Anglo' the most hated word in Ireland and rightly so, is not even 'comparable' to the cost of simply running this country for a year. Something 'had' to give.....

The EU are not out to 'get' us in our beds at night - we made monumental mistakes as far as regulation was concerned and ignored the 50 of 100 economists that saw it coming etc. etc. but simply fact is, we're left with it now, and it needn't be the worst thing ever in our history, or mean that we should start digging Wolfe Tone up just yet to turn him on his front and all that stuff..

At the time when the guarantee was given many people hailed it many people didn't! The arguement as to whether we would be worse or better off etc. would need a fortune teller or somebody who could transmigrate between the multiverse where it happened and where it didn't...

Either way we're left with it. We're angry, pissed off etc. etc. but let's get real and deal with it...

'The argument as to whether we would have been better' wouldn't 'need a fortune teller or somebody who could transmigrate between the multiverse where it happened and where it didn't..'. It was laid out in quite clear terms by a number of the economists you alluded to in your second paragraph that we would be considerably 'worse' off if a blanket guarantee and the Anglo-bailout/Nama route was persued.
This govt had a chance to 'get real' and deal with the situation; instead they made it infinitely worse and are making it very hard for people to envision how we can possibly 'deal with it'.
So peoples anger at them is entirely justified; and so is wondering whether the route we are now going down is the correct one.
I agree with you, though, in hoping that we can find a way to improve our situation without significant trouble.

Buford T Justice

Cheap Thrills! wrote: »

I heard somewhere (can't remember where) that they'll merge AIB and BOI, letting half the staff go.

BOI isn't nationalised, and the Govt has only stuck in 3BN, i think. so I would seriously doubt if it will be merged.

aDeener

Ali Babba wrote: »

All due respects but Lenihan shouldn't even be a minister if his health is poor, he should be at home with his family instead of putting himself through this kind of stressful job.

so making fun of his ill health is okay then?

easy knowing the likes of you and efb are hiding behind a computer screen :rolleyes:

th3 s1aught3r

skelliser wrote: »

it means that allied irish banks is toast.
broken up and merged with bank of ireland.

Thats several thousand jobs gone so

Buford T Justice

aDeener wrote: »

so making fun of his ill health is okay then?

easy knowing the likes of you and efb are hiding behind a computer screen :rolleyes:

I don't see anyone here making fun of his ill health

johngalway

If he's already said it I didn't hear it. If he hasn't I don't want to hear it. It'll either be awful news, lies, or just plain proven to be wrong.

Unless he's resigning and calling an election I just don't give a crap what he or any of the rest of his lot has to say.

skelliser

Fingers McGee wrote: »

BOI isn't nationalised, and the Govt has only stuck in 3BN, i think. so I would seriously doubt if it will be merged.

We own 90% of AIB, it will be nationalised.
A good bank bad bank will then be set up.
The good part will be merged/bought by BoI.

themadhair

Mark200 wrote: »

Seems like a tactic that far too many posters on this forum like to use.

That tactic seems much more defensible that completely and utterly exaggerating the effects of an Anglo collapse. Just sayin’. As was pointed out to you, when major banks tanked it in the states the effects you would have predicted simply did not occur. Similar situation applies here.

Monty Burnz

Mark200 wrote: »

As a poster already stated, all the European banks are interconnected. If Anglo went down, there would be banks in Germany and other European countries that would suddenly find themselves down by billions of Euro. On top of that, Anglo going down would have hugely increased the possibility of AIB, BOI or other Irish financial institutions of going down too.

Obviously the illustration of the EU going down is almost an exaggeration, but chain reactions of these kind of things can lead to very serious consequences...

The same reason why the EU pressured Ireland to take the bailout. They had to get rid of this problem before it came bigger than the EU could handle.

Thanks for that lesson. I'm actually doing a Phd in this stuff. No banks would have failed if Anlgo were let go, with the possible exception of AIB and BOI, which are bankrupt anyway. They should all have been put in administration, saving us hundreds of billions. Cheers FF.

Liam Byrne

Ali Babba wrote: »

All due respects but Lenihan shouldn't even be a minister if his health is poor, he should be at home with his family instead of putting himself through this kind of stressful job.

If a heart surgeon screws up your auntie's operation because he has the flu, do you say "ah, the poor thing had the flu and should have been at home with his family" ?

Biggins

An english outside point of view of the situation.
Tomorrows Times.

Humiliated Irish forced into €85bn bailout loan

Ireland capitulated last night to international demands to accept a bailout as the eurozone struggled to contain its sovereign debt crisis.

After an emergency Cabinet meeting in Dublin, Brian Cowen, the Taoiseach, said his country had formally asked for a rescue package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. EU ministers endorsed the request, saying that it was “warranted to safeguard financial stability in the EU and the euro area”. It represented a U-turn by Ireland, which insisted last week that it needed no bailout.

The package is understood to be worth €80-90 billion, but the final figure has to be negotiated. The UK is expected to contribute in the region of £7 billion, including a bilateral loan with Sweden, alongside the EU/IMF programme. One official said that Britain was acting because it has “a strong interest in Ireland’s economy being stable”.

Last night’s request made Ireland the second eurozone member to require a bailout after Greece agreed a €110 billion rescue in May. It came after financial markets reacted to fears that eurozone debt was out of control, sending the cost of borrowing in Portugal spiralling upwards last week.

Addressing a press conference in Dublin, Mr Cowen denied that he was a “bogeyman” who had brought his country to the brink. “We were hit by an economic and financial crisis and we have had to change direction.”

He added: “We need to show the solidarity in our country that our neighbours have shown to us at this time.”

Leading economists warned that the rescue would not of itself end the eurozone chaos. Gerard Lyons, the chief economist at Standard Chartered bank, said: “This is the end of the beginning, but it is not the beginning of the end. It will stabilise the situation for Ireland, but there are bigger issues. If economic growth disappoints, other economies could get into difficulties.”

The announcement leaves Ireland in political turmoil, with a by-election in Donegal South West on Thursday. Mr Cowen’s Fianna Fáil party, which is backed by the Greens and three independents, is likely to lose the seat, reducing the coalition’s majority to just two seats.

There will be more by-elections next year, but it must first win a vote on the budget on December 7. Striking an almost casual tone, Mr Cowen brushed aside suggestions he should resign, arguing that “all the decisions we took were in the national interest”.

Discussions over the details of the package were under way last night as Irish officials met representatives from the EU, IMF and the European Central Bank.

Earlier, a protester was arrested as ministers arrived at Government Buildings in Dublin. The middle-aged man had refused to allow a car carrying Mary Hanafin, the Tourism Minister, to pass. Another protester was struck and injured by a ministerial car leaving after the meeting ended.

The rescue deal has two elements: a fund to recapitalise the banks and a facility to ensure that the State can borrow enough to bridge the gap between tax revenues and public spending during the coming three years.

The bank restructuring will involve disposals of parts of the country’s hobbled lenders, making them “significantly smaller so they can stand on their own two feet”, Mr Cowen said.

The idea is to bring Ireland’s finances and banking system into a stable state, but there is no guarantee that this can be achieved. The country has already run up a budget deficit of 32 per cent of gross domestic product to try to stabilise its banks.

Yesterday’s special Cabinet finalised a four-year plan to pare back spending that will involve at least €15 billion of cuts and tax increases — about 10 per cent of annual economic output. This will be announced tomorrow, while Mr Cowen said the rescue agreement would be finalised within weeks.

The move follows weeks of denials by Irish ministers, who insisted that they had no need of financial aid. But Brian Lenihan, the Finance Minister, said yesterday that Ireland’s debt-saddled banks were too big a problem for the country to tackle alone.

In recent months, Irish banks have become increasingly reliant on the ECB to stay afloat after billions of euros of property loans went sour.

The banks had some €130 billion in loans from the ECB outstanding at the end of last month, accounting for about a quarter of the liquidity provided by the ECB.

themadhair

skelliser wrote: »

We own 90% of AIB, it will be nationalised.
A good bank bad bank will then be set up.
The good part will be merged/bought by BoI.

There is an aspect to all of this that almost leaves me shaking with rage. I don’t necessarily have an objection to the government stepping in to bail out a bank. My anger stems from performing that action in a manner that leaves the taxpayer with all the risk while private industry enjoys all the reward. It may happen here.

The Pontiac

Monty Burnz wrote: »

You don't have a clue mate. Hundreds of major banks were let go in the US in the last 2 years. Did you hear of any states going bust? No, nor did I. Because the banks debts were not nationalised. I guess they didn't get the memo from Fianna Failure HQ.

Oh dear. lol. Are you talking about Lenham Bros here? It was the single worst political decision ever made to leave one of the world's biggest banks go down. Did you see the effect it had? It led to one the worst global recessions ever. The world markets collapsed, and we still haven't recovered from the subprime mortgage crisis/ Do you know how much it would have cost to save it? It was a tiny amount considering the absolute global travisty it caused. It is widely viewed, by practically everyone, that it was the absolute wrong decision.

Monty Burnz

Mark200 wrote: »

No doubt you'll sleep well assuming that anyone who disagrees with you must automatically be a supporter of FF. Seems like a tactic that far too many posters on this forum like to use.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, votes like a duck, and loads of folks are taking pot-shots at it, then it's probably a duck.

Mark200

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Thanks for that lesson. I'm actually doing a Phd in this stuff. No banks would have failed if Anlgo were let go, with the possible exception of AIB and BOI, which are bankrupt anyway. They should all have been put in administration, saving us hundreds of billions. Cheers FF.

Right, so you're saying that it's possible that all major financial institutions in our country could have gone bankrupt?

I don't see a huge similarity between all of our major banks going bankrupt, and some of America's major banks going bankrupt. And the US saved the banks that were too big to fail.

Revolution9

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Thanks for that lesson. I'm actually doing a Phd in this stuff. No banks would have failed if Anlgo were let go, with the possible exception of AIB and BOI, which are bankrupt anyway. They should all have been put in administration, saving us hundreds of billions. Cheers FF.

You could've let him know at beginning of the debate! What a trump card to play

Clearly know more about economics than our current minister for finance anyway!

figarofigaro

If I ever see Brian Cowen I'll torture him. Just listen to the intro to this track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mi88gydfYI

Liam Byrne

<Ollie> wrote: »

Oh dear. lol. Are you talking about Lenham Bros here? It was the single worst political decision ever made to leave one of the world's biggest banks go down.

And this is relevant to Anglo (a cesspit of a barely-known niche bank until it collapsed) how, exactly ?

Mark200

Monty Burnz wrote: »

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, votes like a duck, and loads of folks are taking pot-shots at it, then it's probably a duck.

I'm embarrassed for every poster on here who tries to claim that anyone who disagrees with them is a FF supporter.

How exactly do you know how I vote?

For the record I'm a member of Young Fine Gael. Not that that should make the slightest bit of difference to how someone should interpret the content of my posts.

Monty Burnz

<Ollie> wrote: »

Oh dear. lol. Are you talking about Lenham Bros here? It was the single worst political decision ever made to leave one of the world's biggest banks go down. Did you see the effect it had? It led to one the worst global recessions ever. The world markets collapsed, and we still haven't recovered from the subprime mortgage crisis/ Do you know how much it would have cost to save it? It was a tiny amount considering the absolute global travisty it caused. It is widely viewed, by practically everyone, that it was the absolute wrong decision.

No I'm not referring to Lehmans, and thanks for verifying that you don't have a clue. Oh, and your point is wrong too.

ascanbe

Mark200 wrote: »

As a poster already stated, all the European banks are interconnected. If Anglo went down, there would be banks in Germany and other European countries that would suddenly find themselves down by billions of Euro. On top of that, Anglo going down would have hugely increased the possibility of AIB, BOI or other Irish financial institutions of going down too.

Obviously the illustration of the EU going down is almost an exaggeration, but chain reactions of these kind of things can lead to very serious consequences...

The same reason why the EU pressured Ireland to take the bailout. They had to get rid of this problem before it came bigger than the EU could handle.

So let 'Germany and other European countries' deal with the losses in their banks, that occured as a direct result of their failure to practice due diligence, in whatever way they wish to.
Why the hell should the Irish state be responsible for their incompetence?
What has increased the liklihood of our entire banking system collapsing is the fact that Ireland took on crazy levels of debt in bailing out the not systemically crucial Anglo, which ensured that no-one would would lend to the state and that we would not have sufficient capital to deal with the problems in the banks that actually are systemically crucial.

Mark200

Revolution9 wrote: »

You could've let him know at beginning of the debate! What a trump card to play

Hardly a trump card to play. You can ask two different economists the exact same question and get two completely different answers.

lmaopml

skelliser wrote: »

It seems that some posters here are the part of the 17% of FF supporters that lurk in this country.
You know who you are.

Anyways im off to bed but il leave ye with this little qoute.


-Brian Lenihan 23 oct 2008

Now if you still support/beleive them after reading that and watching todays events then im sorry, dont take it personally, but you are a fool.

I voted FF in the past - so hang me! lol...

I also voted FG at times, and gave Joan Burton a vote once or twice...


What's this crap about the 17% 'lurkers' - like they're the slime people or something and should be ashamed and bashful about ever voting for FF? ....and ye know everybody else is so sparkly and sweet and gorgeous and just handed all the money back and tutted and spoke about not increasing minimum wage etc. etc. for years on end.....

Get a grip. Everybody can comment and have 20 20 goggles, it's just easier when you detach yourself from the problem as singularly 'special'.

themadhair

<Ollie> wrote: »

Oh dear. lol. Are you talking about Lenham Bros here? It was the single worst political decision ever made to leave one of the world's biggest banks go down. Did you see the effect it had? It led to one the worst global recessions ever. The world markets collapsed, and we still haven't recovered from the subprime mortgage crisis/ Do you know how much it would have cost to save it? It was a tiny amount considering the absolute global travisty it caused. It is widely viewed, by practically everyone, that it was the absolute wrong decision.

Sorry, but this is complete bollocks. If you check into what occurred in the US you would see that the securitisation of mortgages, which allowed the banks over there to flood the international markets with triple-A-rated crap, was the reason the crisis spread. It helped take down Lehmann Bros, and it is complete bollocks to suppose that pumping money into Lehman Bros would have helped this.

You really have swallowed some serious factually incorrect information here.

Revolution9

Mark200 wrote: »

How exactly do you know how I vote?

He doesn't. Probably being the key word in his post.

Monty Burnz

Mark200 wrote: »

Hardly a trump card to play. You can ask two different economists the exact same question and get two completely different answers.

That is true. However, this is factual stuff, not opinion.

There are good papers on contagion by Nier et al., one by Simon Wells re. the UK, Elsinger et al for Austria - most Euro countries have been covered. Nguyen and Degryse did Belgium, Worms and Upper covered Germany. Some stuff will be on the web.

OPENROAD

ascanbe wrote: »

So let 'Germany and other European countries' deal with the losses in their banks, that occured as a direct result of their failure to practice due diligence, in whatever way they wish to.
Why the hell should the Irish state be responsible for their incompetence?
What has increased the liklihood of our entire banking system collapsing is the fact that Ireland took on crazy levels of debt in bailing out the not systemically crucial Anglo, which ensured that no-one would would lend to the state and that we would not have sufficient capital to deal with the problems in the banks that actually are systemically crucial.

Some would say why should German,British, French taxpayers bail us out.

themadhair

OPENROAD wrote: »

Some would say why should German,British, French taxpayers bail us out.

For 5% interest?

th3 s1aught3r

what will be even more enraging is the sight of bankers being paid big bonuses in banks that have just been bailed out by the taxpayer. They will claim they have contracts and are 'entitled' to them
If the govt does anything it has to sort out the pay and bonus schemes operated in the Irish banks, which it now owns

Mark200

Revolution9 wrote: »

He doesn't. Probably being the key word in his post.

'Probably' wasn't in reference to how I vote.