Fine Gael overall majority: our best hope

Permabear

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almighty1

FG, overall majority?

Sounds like a bad horror movie :eek:

thebigcheese22

whatawaster wrote: »

As much as i'd like a FG overall majority, it's not going to happen. It's going to be FG-Lab, so hopefully it will be something like a 70-30 split rather than closer to 50:50.

Labour aren't all bad, I think someone like Ruari Quinn would be a good addition to any cabinet for instance.

I hope for 3 things:
1) FG led government
2) FG Finance Minister (it has to be Richard Bruton - his punishment period is over)
3) FG Health Minister

No chance of Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and a FGer in Finance. If FG do win the election, they won't be much ahead of Labour.

Yitzhak Rabin

I would really love a FG overall majority.

I am really fearing the inevitable FG/Labour coalition. I think it is going to do real damage to this opportunity we have to fix our failed government model. I can see the next government being plagued by in-fighting, party politics, appeasing the unions in a Croke park mk II type deal. Then the worst part of all, is its going to allow FF to make lots of noise from the sidelines, and then a "reformed :rolleyes:" FF will get back into a position of power within a decade.

Nothing will have changed, and we will be left with this broken, clannish, juvenile political system we still have.

Given that the next government will be a FG/Labour coalition, the best outcome I can see, would be for it to fall apart within 12-18th months due to the diameterically opposing views on reform, and allow for a strong new party to emerge, with solely 'political and economic reform' as their platform to enter into a coalition with a slightly weakened FG and let them completely, and radically reform our system, and allow us to emerge from this in a decades time with a mature, efficient, and credible political system.

Valmont

Einhard wrote: »

Socialising bank losses wasn't a "centre right neo-liberal economic policy". Neither was hiking SW payments to unsustainable levels. Neither was benchmarking. Etc, etc, etc...

He's probably been reading the New Statesman. They've been harping on about neo-liberals ruining the world economy for months now.

droidus

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Your figures on Public sector pay are massively, and Im sure willfully distorted by including the small percentage of top earners, which I have already mentioned, the main reason SW is such a burden now is because the economy has collapsed and the number of people on SW has nearly quadrupled, at the time the increase in SW was easily covered by the massive income in tax incomes, and was arguably necessary considering inflation was running at between 3-5% per annum during the boom years and the cost of living here increased to Nordic levels.

Benchmarking and the increase in SW were, as I said a marginal attempt to keep the PS happy and to pass on a tiny fraction of the wealth of this country to the poorest, it was not 'socialist', it was crumbs from the table, which we are now regretting because we've run out of bread and blown up the bakery.

If we hadn't created the "Wild West of European finance" in the IFSC through absolute abdication of regulatory responsibility, if we hadn't allowed the banks to go insane whilst laughing at the whitsleblowers and naysayers, if we'd had responsible regulation and taxation we would never had had a property bubble, or the financial crash and our deficit would be manageable.

We had to call in the IMF NOT because of our deficit, but because of our banking crisis. That much is abundantly clear.

The fact is, that we have lower taxation than nearly all of Europe, our spending on Public Services is in the lower third of the EU and our cost of living is still high.

There is certainly a case for PS wages at the top to come down, and there is a case for SW to come down - if accompanied by a reduction in the cost of living through utility reductions etc... but to blame SW and PS spending for this crisis is ridiculous, and betrays the kind of 'high net worth' wishful thinking and idiocy that got us into this mess.

dolphin city

wouldnt trust FG as far as I could throw them either. its FF all over again - have ye not learned that yet.

I don't know why the word "left" has everyone shaking in their shoes. Its a left govt that we need now. not this ar*e lickers and I am including labour in that - they are just as bad as the rest of them.

droidus

Valmont wrote: »

He's probably been reading the New Statesman. They've been harping on about neo-liberals ruining the world economy for months now.

Maybe you need to look up what it means, and consider why we've been ranked in the top twelve of the globalisation index for over a decade.

LK_Dave

I don't know if FG...or Labour for that matter...would be any different from the current shower. I just received a letter from FG's TD Jimmy Deenihan looking for the vote in the coming general election and asking if I had any issues to rise with him. All nice and sound of him but it was posted in a prepaid Seanad Éireann envelope. When will the gravy train never stop for these guys?? He may well be entitled to do this under the rules - rules which they drew up, I don't know. But this is just a small example how the Irish Tax payer is asked to take it up the a$$ every time from these muppets.

Einhard

droidus wrote: »

Your figures on Public sector pay are massively, and Im sure willfully distorted by including the small percentage of top earners, which I have already mentioned, the main reason SW is such a burden now is because the economy has collapsed and the number of people on SW has nearly quadrupled, at the time the increase in SW was easily covered by the massive income in tax incomes, and was arguably necessary considering inflation was running at between 3-5% per annum during the boom years and the cost of living here increased to Nordic levels.

Benchmarking and the increase in SW were, as I said a marginal attempt to keep the PS happy and to pass on a tiny fraction of the wealth of this country to the poorest, it was not 'socialist', it was crumbs from the table, which we are now regretting because we've run out of bread and blown up the bakery.

If we hadn't created the "Wild West of European finance" in the IFSC through absolute abdication of regulatory responsibility, if we hadn't allowed the banks to go insane whilst laughing at the whitsleblowers and naysayers, if we'd had responsible regulation and taxation we would never had had a property bubble, or the financial crash and our deficit would be manageable.

We had to call in the IMF NOT because of our deficit, but because of our banking crisis. That much is abundantly clear.

The fact is, that we have lower taxation than nearly all of Europe, our spending on Public Services is in the lower third of the EU and our cost of living is still high.

There is certainly a case for PS wages at the top to come down, and there is a case for SW to come down - if accompanied by a reduction in the cost of living through utility reductions etc... but to blame SW and PS spending for this crisis is ridiculous, and betrays the kind of 'high net worth' wishful thinking and idiocy that got us into this mess.

There's some truth in what you're saying alright. The regulation and oversight in this country was far too light, and that which was in place was unenforced. That certainly played a major part in our downfall, and it can be described as being a traditional part of right wing, laissez faire economic thinking.

However, and here's the nub, you refuse absolutely to accept that we were spending far beyond our means, and that government intervention was quite often unwarranted, heavy handed, and counter productive. The bailout of the banks cannot be described as right wing thinking for example. As for PS and SW payments, you ignore the fact that we are running a €20 fiscal deficit, which was brought about in the main by unsustainable spending. Certainly not part of traditional right wing ideology.

I think it's a mistake to attribute blame to one particular system or ideology, especially because there are few nations or governments which operate one only. In Ireland, Britain, even America, government policy operates on a fusion of left and right wing ideas. And aspects of both are to blame for our current position. There was too little regulation, yes; but equally, spending was uncontrolled. It's a bit disingenuous to call for oversight of the banks' spending, yet refuse to admit that the same is necessary for government spending. We are where we are, and we have to put ideology aside, and have an objective analysis of where we went wrong. And that means acknowledging that no one system got us into this mess, and that no one system will get us out of this mess. To state otherwise is but ideological posturing.

paddy462

I'll be happy with a Fine Gael - Labour government. They had the economy in a healthy position in '97 before things went crazy under Fianna Fail.
I'd like to see the creation of a Liberal Democratic Party in this country, one with no links to Fianna Fail whatsoever.

droidus

Einhard wrote: »

There's some truth in what you're saying alright. The regulation and oversight in this country was far too light, and that which was in place was unenforced. That certainly played a major part in our downfall, and it can be described as being a traditional part of right wing, laissez faire economic thinking.

However, and here's the nub, you refuse absolutely to accept that we were spending far beyond our means, and that government intervention was quite often unwarranted, heavy handed, and counter productive. The bailout of the banks cannot be described as right wing thinking for example. As for PS and SW payments, you ignore the fact that we are running a €20 fiscal deficit, which was brought about in the main by unsustainable spending. Certainly not part of traditional right wing ideology.

I think it's a mistake to attribute blame to one particular system or ideology, especially because there are few nations or governments which operate one only. In Ireland, Britain, even America, government policy operates on a fusion of left and right wing ideas. And aspects of both are to blame for our current position. There was too little regulation, yes; but equally, spending was uncontrolled. It's a bit disingenuous to call for oversight of the banks' spending, yet refuse to admit that the same is necessary for government spending. We are where we are, and we have to put ideology aside, and have an objective analysis of where we went wrong. And that means acknowledging that no one system got us into this mess, and that no one system will get us out of this mess. To state otherwise is but ideological posturing.

Thanks for a more considered reply.

Im not saying we should ignore Government spending. Im in favour of fiscal restraint and responsible spending.

I disagree with your assessment of our economic policies though, and even the examples you mention, the UK, the US and Ireland - are all well known to be closer to 'Boston than Berlin' in their economic policies.

I also disagree with the causes of the problems we face now. We were one of the most open economies in the world, the poster child of globalisation, held up as an example of all that is positive about neo-liberal policies, and now we are an example of what happens when those policies are taken to their natural extent in a real world situation.

AFAIC, one system DID get us into this mess - it was the overarching framework of right wing economic, pro-business, low tax, low regulation policies pushed by the PD's combined with FF's instinctive pro business stance and local cronyism and corruption which got us here.

But yes, we are where we are. and what I dont want to see in the future is more of the same kinds of policies that got us into this mess being repeated again, nor do I want to see the citizens of this country bear the burden of the casino losses made by banks and bondholders.

FG have no new ideas, they're going to pursue the same aims through different policies.

I think we need to look at different aims.

Bottle_of_Smoke

With Kenny as leader a FG overall majority gov is nothing but a pipe dream but too late to change that now. Pity because it may well be the best thing for the economy right now. It will be Labour/Fine Gael. I'd say something like 35:65.

Permabear

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Dannyboy83

I believe a Fine Gael majority is the only viable option for the future sustainability of this country.

This image shows how the boom was squandered in Ireland.
Very few of the promises in Cork were delivered on, no North ring Road, no flood defences, a useless airport which is crumbling with debt and being strangled by the DAA. Cork is little different to most of the rest of the country, so much of the money was squandered.

This image shows the unsustainable positions Ireland maintains with regard to minimum wage - which is over inflated due to lucrative public sector wages and pensions

This table helps to portray the apartheid which continues to exist between public and private sector pay

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63180709&postcount=1

Last but not least; The IMF are to here to help fix the financial mess created by the Irish government and nothing else - not the social mess, not the union drama.
The bottom line is what concerns them.

Bear in mind, we have an income of 31billion.
We borrow 20billion per year, to pay for Social Welfare and Publi sector wages.
Socialism is strangling baby Ireland in her cot.


Either we elect a Fine Gael government, or the BRAIN DRAIN will begin - mass exodus of the wealth generating class who will refused to be taxed to the back teeth to prop up this socialist nightmare.

Liam Byrne

Einhard wrote: »

Ireland does not, by any means, have a high individual tax burden.

Factor in the cost of living here and doing business here and you have people on €1,500 a month who cannot afford to pay more.

Reduce the costs (many of which are due to Government contracts and quangos) and then see what's left over.

All I'm saying is that - in total - I have absolutely no money available to pay more tax; I don't mind paying what I am paying, and if the Government actually do some good for a change I don't mind paying out the same amount, but I cannot afford to pay more.

Einhard wrote: »

The average industrial wage is still one of the highest in Europe, and once the unemployed are removed, average Irish disposable income is in the same category.

And the cost of living comes out of that - including the cost of putting a roof over your head.

There is no point in looking at what people are paid unless you look at what people have to pay out. And I'm not talking luxuries here; I'm talking the basics, such as the sickening €450 house insurance quote that arrived today in the post.

the groutch

an overall majority would be bad for the country imo, we need accountability for the biggest party, which wasnt realistically possible in recent coalitions with the junior partner
at least with the FG/Labour coalition, Labour have a proper say and keep FG in check (thst's assuming that FG are the senior partner)

Spacedog

FG are pretty much the same as FF policy wise. for every corrupt FF politician there is a FG one on the other side.

as opposition FG resort to cheap name calling because 75% of the time they would so the same if they were in power.

as for the bitterness towards Labour, and the begrudging of social secutity payments to those who had contributed during the good times. you seem perfectly happy to take the last peice of bread from the mouths of the poorest people, for fear of becomming poor yourselves.

the implication that it's better for middle class people to leave Ireland to preserve a life of comfort, rather than poor people leaving ireland to scrape out a living is typical from both FF/FG supporters. show a bit of backbone and be willing bite the bullet and pay your share.

paddy462

FG and FF have similarity but they are members of two different groups in Europe.
A good move for the country is if someone had the leadership and strength to create a new Liberal Democratic Party without being linked to the old politics.

droidus

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Well, lets look at PS pay in comparison with other European countries:

One of the problems in comparing public sector wages internationally is that there is no internationally agreed definition of ‘public sector’ employee. For instance, in Ireland are ESB workers ‘public sector’? They’re not private sector as the company is publicly owned. However, they don’t fall into the category of ‘General Government Employee’ nor are they paid out of the Exchequer pay and pension budget. Defining these ‘public enterprise’ workers is one of the complications international agencies face when defining ‘public sector’ or ‘Government employees, especially when different countries have widely varying organisational practices.

However, the EU Klems database compiles comprehensive data on total labour costs and total hours worked by various economic sectors. Some of these can be directly related to the public sector - in particular NACE L: Public Administration & Defence. Throughout Europe, including Ireland, it is likely that all employees in this category will be public sector workers (unlike NACE N: Health & Social Work where, in Ireland, only about 55 percent of all employees are in the public sector).

So what do we find when we compare labour costs (wages plus employers’ payroll contributions) in the public administration sector which, in Ireland, makes up approximately 100,000 employees?



Irish labour costs rank 10th out of the EU-15
Irish labour costs per hour are €2.02 below the EU-15 average – or 7.2 percent
When compared with our peer group in the EU-15 (excluding the poorer Mediterranean countries), Irish labour costs per hour are €4.28 per hour below average – or 14.2 percent.

Of course, this is before both the pension levy (which wouldn’t show up as a pay cut in these tables) and the Budget 2010 pay cuts (which would). So there is a reasonable chance that Irish public sector labour costs will have fallen further behind European averages. (I won’t even go into PPPs, factoring in living standards; Irish public sector wages would fall even further behind European averages).

http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2010/03/in-a-previous-post-we-saw-that-public-sector-labour-costs-are-below-average-by-eu-15-standards-the-argument-that-irish-publ.html

So even with filthy reds throwing money into the Public Service orgy of champagne and truffles, it seems we never went above 10th in the EU. Almost enough to make you think that the PS was actually underpaid at the onset of the bench marking process. Almost as if that was the situation that benchmarking was originally designed to address...

Have a look at the increases in dole payments from 2000-10:

Budget 2000: €96.50
Budget 2001: €106.66 (+10.5%)
Budget 2002: €118.80 (+11.3%)
Budget 2003: €124.80 (+5%)
Budget 2004: €134.80 (+8%)
Budget 2005: €148.80 (+10.3%)
Budget 2006: €165.80 (+11.4%)
Budget 2007: €185.80 (+12%)
Budget 2008: €197.80 (+6.4%)
Budget 2009: €204.80 (+3.5%)
Budget 2010: €196.00 (-4.3%)

Inflation during the past decade was nowhere near the level you claim it was. If benefits had increased in line with inflation since 2000, dole payments would be around €130 a week at the present time. Instead, they are €66 a week higher than that.

First of all, I never claimed that SW climbed in line with inflation, I said inflation was high during the boom years.

It also seems that in 2001, our net spending on SW was one of the lowest in the OECD, luckily mexico and South Korea stopped us from coming last:

Denmark 29.2 37.9 $29,000
Sweden 28.9 38.2 $24,180
France 28.5 34.9 $23,990
Germany 27.4 33.2 $25,350
Belgium 27.2 32.7 $25,520
Switzerland 26.4 31.6 $28,100
Austria 26.0 32.4 $26,730
Finland 24.8 32.3 $24,430
Netherlands 24.3 27.3 $27,190
Italy 24.4 28.6 $24,670
Greece 24.3 28.4 $17,440
Norway 23.9 33.2 $29,620
Poland 23.0 N/A $9,450
United Kingdom 21.8 25.9 $24,160
Portugal 21.1 25.5 $18,150
Luxembourg 20.8 N/A $53,780
Czech Republic 20.1 N/A $14,720
Hungary 20.1 N/A $12,340
Iceland 19.8 23.2 $29,990
Spain 19.6 25.3 $20,150
New Zealand 18.5 25.8 $19,160
Australia 18.0 22.5 $25,370
Slovak Republic 17.9 N/A $11,960
Canada 17.8 23.1 $27,130
Japan 16.9 18.6 $25,130
United States 14.8 19.4 $46,000
Ireland 13.8 18.5 $32,410
Mexico 11.8 N/A $8,430
South Korea 6.1 11.0 $15,090

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_state For a proper table

Again, its almost as if SW levels in relation to GDP were very low to begin with.

No, I'm afraid you are completely wrong. In a hypothetical world without the crippling deficit, we would have faced into the banking crisis with a balanced budget and a low national debt of around €38 billion. Market confidence in our economy would have remained high. We could easily have managed on our own. The bankers have not brought this country to its knees by themselves.

Im sorry, this is nonsense. Youre saying that if our deficit was lower then we could have dealt with the banking crisis. Im saying that the Irish banking crisis was a direct result of the neo liberal policies of FF and the PD's, and that its clearly the crisis and the blanket guarantee which have dragged us down. Without the banking crisis the slump would not have been so severe, we'd have far less people on social welfare and the deficit would have been far more manageable.

The deficit is not the cause of this crisis. It is of course undesirable, but its still a relatively minor contributory factor. Even without the deficit the banks would still have dragged us to the door of the IMF. We're looking at what? €250 billion to stabilise the banking sector? The PS and SW bills are nothing in comparison.

T runner

Einhard wrote: »

PS: I'm really beginning to dislike Paul Gogarthy. What on earth was he thinking bringing his child to the press conference yesterday?

from Paul Gogarty on Twitter:


"perhaps cos the family member that normally minds her when i am working wasn't able? She was happy and content "

"ps I know lots of TDs who have brought kids in on occasion. Should men be different to women?"

"I wouldn't call it parading. Leave her without me crying or with me happy. She was going in with me before press conf agreed"

"give me another example then. I avoid putting my kids in photos like plague, even election literature. Timing today unplanned "

"plus watch my rte interview, made sure I wasn't holding baby in that "

"but timing of conf had 30 minutes notice after pp ended. It could have been last night"

I think thats fair enough to be honest. A once off.

ciarriaithuaidh

I cannot stomach having that wooden buffoon Kenny as Taoiseach. He would be worse, yes, worse than Cowen for our international reputation..he has the charisma of a wet teabag and doesnt inspire confidence or sound like he is an authority on ANY subject.
Get Richard Bruton in charge and the Blueshirts (for the first time ever..and my Grandfather would turn in his grave!) will have my vote for sure. That or the oft called for "Elite party" with the brains from each faction.
As is in my own constituency of Kerry North, the Fine Gael candidate Jimmy Deenihan is probably the only one I would cross the road to vote for in any case..nothing to do with him being a football hero. He actually makes a contribution in the Dail and to party policy and is constantly available to the people of his constituency. Apart from that we have a guy who thinks its ok to shoot cops and a buffoon who has never uttered a word in the Dail afaik.

Sulmac

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

I cannot stomach having that wooden buffoon Kenny as Taoiseach. He would be worse, yes, worse than Cowen for our international reputation..he has the charisma of a wet teabag and doesnt inspire confidence or sound like he is an authority on ANY subject.

The hell he would.

Cowen is an international laughing stock. You have the likes of Jay Leno in the U.S. using him for material, and his joke of an interview on Morning Ireland replayed on almost every major news show in the world. He has single-handedly done more to encourage the stereotype that we are a nation of incompetent drunks than anyone else in the country.

Kenny is actually very well respected internationally, especially within the European People's Party (the party of which Sarkozy's UMP and Merkel's CDU are members) where he is Vice-President! We need friends in Europe right now - they're going to be the ones calling the shots for a few years thanks to Cowen and his failed administration - and Kenny has a far better chance of doing this than Cowen ever could.

oscarBravo

Hopefully our international reputation will rest on something more than an apparent veneer of charisma.

Sadly, it looks like our choice of government will come down, in part, to such shallow trivia.

T runner

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Either we elect a Fine Gael government, or the BRAIN DRAIN will begin - mass exodus of the wealth generating class who will refused to be taxed to the back teeth to prop up this socialist nightmare.

It was the wealth generating class who caused this nightmare!!

Between scams like foreign residency, capital gains, disguising capital acquisitions by acquiring companies, etc etc this class of people (top 3%) have averaged 15% tax revenue to this state.

Your sentiment above is exactly what FF believed: That you must let thse people do as they wish without taxation or else theyw ill take their money elsewhere. From what i can see they extracted massive profits from this state, paid their taxes abroad wheer they couldnt avoid them here and ran the economy over a cliff.

And you want more of the same????

Is ther any reaosn why these people shouldnt pay their taxes fairly liek anyone else? Are citizenship rights different for multi-milionaires than for ordinary people?

They are only being asked to pay their share.

daravinny

REMEMBER one thing, any strong credible government needs a good opposition to challenge them. the demise of FF causes worries here. Hopefully the competition between Lab and FG in the next gov will keep each other on their toes. many backbenchers will have little to do.

Zillah

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Haha, how can anyone say this with a straight face?

ciarriaithuaidh

Sulmac wrote: »

The hell he would.

Cowen is an international laughing stock. You have the likes of Jay Leno in the U.S. using him for material, and his joke of an interview on Morning Ireland replayed on almost every major news show in the world. He has single-handedly done more to encourage the stereotype that we are a nation of incompetent drunks than anyone else in the country.

Kenny is actually very well respected internationally, especially within the European People's Party (the party of which Sarkozy's UMP and Merkel's CDU are members) where he is Vice-President! We need friends in Europe right now - they're going to be the ones calling the shots for a few years thanks to Cowen and his failed administration - and Kenny has a far better chance of doing this than Cowen ever could.

Kenny is well respected? A lot of his own bloody party respected him so much they tried to give him the heave-ho!! Like i said, get Richard Bruton as leader and im in, not Kenny. Merkel or Sarkozy or anyone would be quite happy to deal with a politician from Ireland who can speak coherently and doesnt look like a charicature for a change. Kenny has gone missing the past few days again..James Reilly doing most of the public appearance gigs.

T runner

Spacedog wrote: »

FG are pretty much the same as FF policy wise. for every corrupt FF politician there is a FG one on the other side.

as opposition FG resort to cheap name calling because 75% of the time they would so the same if they were in power.

I come from a FF family. (Although i havent voted FF in 2 elections (Labour, Green).

I disagree with what you say. FF has shown corruption at the highest level.
I see this now. They had admirable republican aspirations is the past. However the getting elected side (which every party must have) has dominated for a long time. Im not saying they deliberately ran the country to ruin, but corrupt and quasi corrupt politics contributed hugely.

The amount of corruption that FG has displayed is less than FF by a long way. Its not in their culture. (i dont like FG policies BTW)

I believe a lot of FF supporters have been duped.

It is possible that the envirnmental political system here means that the mutation of parties into the beasts that FF has become is ineviatble. Either way FF needs to go.

Laois_Man

Einhard wrote: »

there is still significant scope for increases in personal taxation, without resulting in overly onerous burden on people.

Someone on TV came up with this brillian nugget the other night too! He claimed we play less tax than the likes of the Germans! I nearly spat up my digestive buiscuit!

GERMANY!!!! Where the average income in my own profession is similar to what it is here - but, where Tax Free Income for single person is €8,004 and the next €13,500 is taxed linerally at between 14% and 24% and then increases linearly from 24% to 42% for the remainde up to €53,000 and 45% for the rest.

Compare that to here where we have a flat 1% income levy on EVERYTHING under €100,000 2% on EVERYTHING above that, plus 20% on the first €36,400 after credits which for a single person, the basic credit is pittence compared to Germany - and then the 41% on the rest! No "Linear" increases at all.

Plus, Germany did not have a property bubble and do not have thousands of famalies living in properties with extortionate mortgages on very modest 3-bed semi-detached homes!