Fine Gael overall majority: our best hope

Permabear

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rumour

donegalfella wrote: »

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Good post I couldn't agree more and am already making plans to leave should this prove to be the case.

Additionally I have a fundamnetal problem with increasing tax. Currently it is for no other objective other than to fuel the addicition by the states institutions for EASY money. This I believe is the crux of all our problems.

If we could manage to live within our means first, (30bn was good enough in 2003, why not now?) then when our government has proved itself fit to run an efficient country I have no problem participating and contributing tax's for investments in our future. These do not include salaries for teachers gardai and nurses or the minimum wage.

Call me selfish but it is fundamentally wrong to reward faliure with easy money.

dan_d

Completely agree. As I've said elsewhere - it's like the water and property taxes. If I see returns for these taxes, if they are ring fenced to upgrade the water system (the water tax), then fine. I'll pay.

If they are funding the public service wage bill....forget it.

If income taxes go up a few percent and I see a decent health system ( or at least an extremely high level of upgrading the one we have), and decent public transport and other good levels of service in the PS...then fine.

If taxes go up a few percent, and nothing changes (except the amount of borrowing we have to do to pay the PS wage bill every month decreasing as a result of increased tax take)...then forget it.Not a hope in hell.

We've accepted the levies as a necessary evil to increase tax take. Which is fine (to an extent). But I'm firmly of the belief that from now on, given the state we are in, the level of spending has to be looked at first, prior to tax increases. If I'm not seeing any return for my money, then I will be seriously against paying anything extra.And I don't think that's too much to ask.

Laois_Man

rumour wrote: »

should this prove to be the case.

You already know it IS going to be the case. And even if FG/Labour were the one's putting together this Dec 7 budget, it would still be the case. They both agree that taxes will be increased. The only thing they disagree on is the how much the split will be between cut-backs and tax increases in the adjustments!

Plus, the property tax effectively adds a 13th monthly mortgage payment per year to those already struggling to pay the 12 payments! Plus water charges coming in a couple of years! All on top of income tax and/or levy increases!!

You already know it!

droidus

Can you provide a source for that graph please? Why also, is it conflating GDP and GNP? why does it not show GNP levels for all countries? Does it take into account the 14% pay cut since 2008?

Ah, yes, the neoliberal policy of turning banking debt into sovereign debt....

You keep coming up with this line and its garbage. I have quite clearly stated that it was neo-liberal policies which created this crisis. Low tax, low corporation tax, little or no regulation of the banking or financial services, creation of tax havens for same, no oversight of banking practices, letting the market sort everything out, they are classic neo-liberal policies, and those are the factors which caused the banking crisis. None of this is controversial.

Either you dont know what neo-liberal economics are, or your 'high net worth' status is distorting your perception.

Bailing out the rich I agree is not 'neo-liberal', but it is an extension of the same general sentiment - do whatever you can to protect the interests of business and capital.

Nonsense. If you look at other areas with unsustainable property bubbles and similar overreliance on the construction sector, unemployment is at similar levels to Ireland, even without a remotely comparable banking crisis. The unemployment level in the state of Nevada is around 14.5 percent.

Nevada??? What a bizarre comparison. Here is the unemployment rate throughout europe in 2010 and the impact of the recession:



And here are national debt levels as a % of GDP

Big picture here: http://www.visualeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/national-debt.gif

We currently stand at about 66%.

So this begs the question, if France and germany have a comparable amount of debt, and italy is approaching double, then why cant we borrow money and try and get the economy going agin?

Anything to do with the black hole of the banks sucking up all the cash and scaring the **** out of the markets? Nah - it must be SW and PS pay... :rolleyes:

Denerick

droidus wrote: »

Can you provide a source for that graph please? Why also, is it conflating GDP and GNP? why does it not show GNP levels for all countries? Does it take into account the 14% pay cut since 2008?



You keep coming up with this line and its garbage. I have quite clearly stated that it was neo-liberal policies which created this crisis. Low tax, low corporation tax, little or no regulation of the banking or financial services, creation of tax havens for same, no oversight of banking practices, letting the market sort everything out, they are classic neo-liberal policies, and those are the factors which caused the banking crisis. None of this is controversial.

Either you dont know what neo-liberal economics are, or your 'high net worth' status is distorting your perception.

Bailing out the rich I agree is not 'neo-liberal', but it is an extension of the same general sentiment - do whatever you can to protect the interests of business and capital.



Nevada??? What a bizarre comparison. Here is the unemployment rate throughout europe in 2010 and the impact of the recession:



And here are national debt levels as a % of GDP

Big picture here: http://www.visualeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/national-debt.gif

We currently stand at about 66%.

So this begs the question, if France and germany have a comparable amount of debt, and italy is approaching double, then why cant we borrow money and try and get the economy going agin?

Anything to do with the black hole of the banks sucking up all the cash and scaring the **** out of the markets? Nah - it must be SW and PS pay... :rolleyes:

I don't see the point of any of your posts thus far. Current government spending exploded over the last decade, with real terms increases in social welfare and public sector wages - and it has now got to the stage where up to 70% of entire departments such as the department of education is spent on payroll. You cannot deny or brush aside these facts.

The bank bailout is of course racking up massive debts for the state, but these are one off payments many of which may even be offset by future repayments. Current spending, the structural problem with our deficit, is wildly out of synch with what we can actually afford. Also our national debt is over 33% higher than what you claim.

invinciblePRSTV

Fine Gael are damaged goods, a mirror image of FF.

How can anyone place confidence in a party that supported without question the bailout of the failed Irish banking system in 2008.

A party who actively supported, and wished to outmanouevre FF, in fanning the flames of the property bubble during 2002 - 2007.

A party who controlled many of the local councils which allowed for many of the terrible corrupt planning decisisons that lead to the culture of sleaze and corruption from the 1970s right up the present day.

A party that believes just as strongly in the preeminence of political dynasties and patronage politics.

A party who has no problem pursuing the kind of stroke politics to win elections we associate with FF (€300 pension & medical cards to the middle classes in 2007 anyone?).

At least the op has been honest in his intentions, he doesn't want to pay extra tax as per his ideological leanings, but to present FG as something they are not - a responsible political party immune to the worst characteristics of the the Irish political system - is false.

The Irish electorate deserves better then the tweedledee/tweedledum parties who have combined to to send this country down the toilet twice in the past 30 years.

Denerick

Well said. FG and FF have always been two cheeks of the same arse. I always get amused when certain posters here castigate FF in such strong terms - in complete denial, of course, that FG would have done pretty much the same thing. They suffer from the same clientalism, the parish pump shíte. And I'm sick to the bloody gut of how so many otherwise intelligent people in this country insist on deluding themselves. Moronic just doesn't quite convey the point.

What is even worse is the level of partisanship involved. for example I am widely assumed to be a Fianna Failer because I think Fine Gael and Labour are a part of the problem, not the solution. You simply cannot insult the political establishment in this country. Because nearly everyone has a stake in it.

oscarBravo

invinciblePRSTV wrote: »

The Irish electorate deserves better then the tweedledee/tweedledum parties who have combined to to send this country down the toilet twice in the past 30 years.

Great. Now all we need is a credible alternative.

droidus

Denerick wrote: »

I don't see the point of any of your posts thus far. Current government spending exploded over the last decade, with real terms increases in social welfare and public sector wages - and it has now got to the stage where up to 70% of entire departments such as the department of education is spent on payroll. You cannot deny or brush aside these facts.

The bank bailout is of course racking up massive debts for the state, but these are one off payments many of which may even be offset by future repayments. Current spending, the structural problem with our deficit, is wildly out of synch with what we can actually afford. Also our national debt is over 33% higher than what you claim.

Your summary of the banking bailout is absurdly optimistic. We will get nothing back and our exposure is ridiculously high. We will spend tens of billions simply to preserve the existence of the banks and we will never be repaid.

Denerick

droidus wrote: »

Come now Denerick, I dont really see the point of your existence, but theres no need to get personal.

Do you know, I'm constantly asked why I exist. I'm beginning to develop a complex about it.

Your summary of the banking bailout is absurdly optimistic. We will get nothing back and our exposure is ridiculously high. We will spend tens of billions simply to preserve the existence of the banks and we will never be repaid.

You're probably right. But your graph doesn't account for the huge increase in government debt (50 billion) announced a couple of months ago.

meglome

donegalfella wrote: »

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As you and others have said it isn't perfect but it's by far the best option we've got right now. They seem to be really trying to do what's required.

invinciblePRSTV

oscarBravo wrote: »

Great. Now all we need is a credible alternative.

There isn't going to be a single credible alternative is there? As always, it'll boil down to peoples self interest, rather then the national interest, and in the absence of new parties emerging we'll just see a continuance of the same self interested voter intentions winning out. It's why i think FF will take a hammering this round but are far, far from political extinction, they are the ultimate catch all party.

tails_naf

Many people say the would not vote FG because 'they can't get anything done'.

The one thing FG have got going for them is at least they are suggesting real actual policies about what they want to do, what they will try do.
None of the others are suggesting anything - so if a party isn't even TALKING about doing something tangible, then they have no hope of doing it.

Heck, I'll vote FG for the univeral health care they have proposed alone. Cynics will say they will never achieve it - and maybe so, but the other lot(s) definitely won't achieve it because they won't even try, or talk about trying.


Also, I can't really understand the absolute hatred for Enda Kenny. At least he seems honest and somewhat respectable - something we've been crying out for!
I see people on here daily lamenting the fact 'why oh why are all the politicians so corrupt' - well the reason why is when there is a reasonably honest one like Enda is there, no one wants to vote for him, we want the charisma of the likes of Bertie, or the self serving cooper-flynns !

rumour

Laois_Man wrote: »

You already know it IS going to be the case. And even if FG/Labour were the one's putting together this Dec 7 budget, it would still be the case. They both agree that taxes will be increased. The only thing they disagree on is the how much the split will be between cut-backs and tax increases in the adjustments!

Plus, the property tax effectively adds a 13th monthly mortgage payment per year to those already struggling to pay the 12 payments! Plus water charges coming in a couple of years! All on top of income tax and/or levy increases!!

You already know it!

I have no idea what they are going to do with increased taxes??? I'll make my mind up when I find out. As I said putting swift plans in place.

Also these idiots are postulating as if they have choices which they can deliver to the Irish people. They are deliberately deceiving people. Its seems our opposition have completely forgotten that the EU & IMF are in town. What holds me here is that they are in control, yet we will still go through the farce of political posturing.
While our absolute idiot politicians have their pretend debate about what they'll do events are moving abroad. It is increasingly feasible that what we think we will get from the IMF will be dramatically reduced between now and January as action is needed for Portugal and Spain caused by our petulance, expect less sympathy for our bloated PS pay bill. Thus ensuring cuts, the very thing that for example Labour are campaigning against.

This is a paradox unfolding entirely made from Irish politicians and the Irish electorate.

I rest assured that ultimately they are so addicted to credit that they all, Labour FG or whatever hue of government is elected will grovel on their knees for some more credit rather than tell the Irish people to live within their means.

Secondly I'll add that those who think tax is the solution really do fail to understand the motivations of the IMF ECB and EU. They want money back, that money comes from the private sector. Labour FG will simply not be allowed jeopardise that. Simple as.

Laois_Man

tails_naf wrote: »

Enda is there, no one wants to vote for him, we want the charisma of the likes of Bertie, or the self serving cooper-flynns !

AS I said yesterday, the premise of your point is false IMO as Charisma is NOT the only thing kenny is lacking.

Because his interview on RTE Radio 1 on Sunday morning, Nov 7th with Richard Crowley, clearly demonstrates that he's missing a lot more - to the point where even his own party members had to come out and say kenny was a little confused about the numbers FG were presenting in their proposals!

http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2010/pc/pod-v-07111030m59sthisweekpart1.mp3

Liam Byrne

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

I cannot stomach having that wooden buffoon Kenny as Taoiseach. He would be worse, yes, worse than Cowen for our international reputation..he has the charisma of a wet teabag and doesnt inspire confidence or sound like he is an authority on ANY subject.

There is no comparison between Kenny and Cowen. Kenny wasn't Minister for Finance walking us into this mess, and never shouted "we're not letting f**king Anglo fail!" as has been attributed to our current incompetent idiot.

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Get Richard Bruton in charge and the Blueshirts (for the first time ever..and my Grandfather would turn in his grave!) will have my vote for sure.

What does your grandfather have to do with the current economic climate and the incompetence of FF ?

DB10

SF are the only party IMO, that can see us out of this trouble. No Labour candidate ever stands in my constituency so that leaves FG-FF.

Between FF, FG, and SF: Sinn Fein do it for me and I hope I'm not the only one.

Permabear

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Soldie

droidus wrote: »

I have quite clearly stated that it was neo-liberal policies which created this crisis. Low tax, low corporation tax, little or no regulation of the banking or financial services, creation of tax havens for same, no oversight of banking practices, letting the market sort everything out, they are classic neo-liberal policies, and those are the factors which caused the banking crisis. None of this is controversial.

By keeping interest rates low the ECB pursued an expansionary monetary policy, and it lead to malinvestment. Coupled with tax breaks and incentives for the construction sector and house-buyers, the malinvestment in Ireland took the form of a property bubble. The bubble inevitably burst, and that was the initial crisis.

The current crisis is the gargantuan budget deficit, and the bank debt which has now become sovereign debt.

Neo-liberal policies were responsible for neither.

tails_naf

Laois_Man wrote: »

AS I said yesterday, the premise of your point is false IMO as Charisma is NOT the only thing kenny is lacking.

Because his interview on RTE Radio 1 on Sunday morning, Nov 7th with Richard Crowley, clearly demonstrates that he's missing a lot more - to the point where even his own party members had to come out and say kenny was a little confused about the numbers FG were presenting in their proposals!

http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2010/pc/pod-v-07111030m59sthisweekpart1.mp3

Look, bottom line, I'd prefer if Enda was not the front man.
That said, there are a lot of good proposals on the table by FG - so I wouldn't let the front man sway my voting decision in the slightest. This vote cannot be about individuals, local TDs or anything, it has to be about party policies.

Enda might not last 6 months as the leader, but the next party will be in power for a while, so might as well make sure we like the party policies, and from what I can see FG is the only party with decent proposals, the rest have nothing tangible, and FF have nothing flat out.

invinciblePRSTV

donegalfella wrote: »

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I don't share your idea that a credible alternative should be a party that won't hit your wallet with tax increases. No Irish political party will be able to resist implementing tax increases, as well as cutting public spending, over the next few years if they are in power. This is the political reality we now face, there's no getting round it.

Henceforth i'd suggest establishing your own party to reflect your politics, this is your best bet rather then pinning your hopes on FG, otherwise i reckon you're going to be in for a huge disappointment whether or not FG go it or alone or coalesce.

RonMexico

I'll be voting FG in the next election. I agree with Donegalfella on this one, they are by no means perfect but we cannot afford to throw the future of our country in with Labour. Gilmore is a spoofer or some sort of magician - he thinks we can make savings by not cutting social welfare and by not cutting the public service wage bill. The fact that my socialist loving hippy friends who piss their dole up against the wall every weekend and wouldn't work to warm themselves are all in favour of Gilmore and Labour only reaffirms my decision to avoid the Labour Party like the plague.

Hopefully a FG majority.

Permabear

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Soldie

invinciblePRSTV wrote: »

I don't share your idea that a credible alternative should be a party that won't hit your wallet with tax increases. No Irish political party will be able to resist implementing tax increases, as well as cutting public spending, over the next few years if they are in power. This is the political reality we now face, there's no getting round it.

The only realistic way out of the current crisis is to grow our way out. Raising taxes will have the opposite effect, and contract the economy even further.

Permabear

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meglome

Soldie wrote: »

The only realistic way out of the current crisis is to grow our way out. Raising taxes will have the opposite effect, and contract the economy even further.

I agree generally but...

• Ireland’s top 0.5% of earners, the 11,714 people who earned more than €275,000 in a year, paid almost 18% of all income tax, over €2bn in total. Their average tax rate was 27.5%.
• Almost 770,000 people earned less than €17,000. Understandably, given tax credits, these workers paid a tiny amount of tax, €20m in total. Their average tax rate was about 0.5%.
• It’s in the middle, though, where things seem to go all screwy. The median earner, earning about €25,000, paid just 4% in income tax! As I argued before, we seem to have got ourselves into a situation where the typical Irish worker pays hardly any income tax and yet seems to think they are heavily taxed.

Posted in here previously from the Ronan Lyons site.

If these figures are accurate there is a big imbalance in the tax system. We can't afford to lower the tax on the high earners nor would it be sensible to tax them too much more. So that average low taxed worker is going to have to be taxed more.

invinciblePRSTV

Soldie wrote: »

The only realistic way out of the current crisis is to grow our way out. Raising taxes will have the opposite effect, and contract the economy even further.

Yes this is the mantra beloved of parties of the right - inc. a certain well known and not fondly forgotten Irish party - for the past few decades, but it ignores that Ireland is a low tax economy, there is scope there for tax increases.

As much as some would like to cut SW to ribbons, this isn't going to happen, public spending cuts have to be conducted in tandem with tax increases. Unless of course you are committed to widening even further income inequalities and the inevitable breakdown in social order this would entail.

To that end, and assuming Corpo Tax is sacrosanct, that leaves us with little choice but to introduce new taxes and raise personal & consumption taxes. I'd argue that consumption taxes are high enough, but there is plenty of scope for personal tax increases via widening the tax base and increasing the existing tax rate on middle and higher incomes.

Yeah no one likes it but thats the way it is, 'we are where we are'.

donegalfella wrote: »

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This is why i think you'll be disappointed when it comes to FG in power. A FG/Lab coalition will compromise in the national interest and reduce the budget deficit and accept watered down versions of each others red line issues - pay cuts & job losses in the public sector for the former, and tax increases on all income earners for the latter - i think you over emphasise Labours willingness to tax people to the 'hilt', but seeing as you are acting in your own self-interest (your wallet), and ideologically opposed to the concept of taxation and provision of public services in general, then i s'pose it's natural you are weary of them.

donegalfella wrote: »

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Plenty of libertarian inclined posters here on boardsm i'm sure they'd lend a hand.

lmtduffy

donegalfella wrote: »

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Did you notice you addressed liberalism not neo-liberalism in this post?

Neo-liberalism opens every oppurtunity for maximising profit and minimising losess, so cutting taxes for businesess and high earners adn then bailing them out if they mess up is a classic neo-liberal policy.

And while we're at it, liberalism will not solve our problems here either, it has been made redundant by the changing structure of society.

Rebelheart

Einhard wrote: »

Socialising bank losses wasn't a "centre right neo-liberal economic policy".

:rolleyes: Mar dhea. More like a rightwing one. But how predictable that all our apologists for rightwing Thatcherite policies are trying to distance themselves from this now.

States all across the western world have been using public funds to subsidise private businesses in capitalist societies for a long time now.