General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

Jimdagym

Has at ony else played "spot the fianna fail logo sn Michael kennedys election posters?"

It's a good game.

Uriel.

Corsendonk wrote: »

Anyone else thinking the line up of candidates in Dublin North is pretty poor? There isn't exactly much of an alternative to voters and a disgraceful shortage of women candidates.

On the Pat Kenny show yesterday they examined the Dutch Health Model that James Reilly is pushing, apparently under the system Dutch Doctors are the best paid in the world........

There is a real shortage of candidates alright. I am not just even talking about a shortage of "good" candidates but just candidates in general. It's quite surprising really.

The old reliables (Kennedy, Daly etc...) still hovering around. I am seriously gonna weep if Daly gets elected. There are no real heavy weights either - except, Deputy Reilly, who has done a good job in recent years getting his profile up.

cathy01

I believe the debate can be seen later today on
http://www.fctv.ie/

Cathy

martinn123

Uriel. wrote: »

There is a real shortage of candidates alright. I am not just even talking about a shortage of "good" candidates but just candidates in general. It's quite surprising really.

The old reliables (Kennedy, Daly etc...) still hovering around. I am seriously gonna weep if Daly gets elected. There are no real heavy weights either - except, Deputy Reilly, who has done a good job in recent years getting his profile up.

Oh for the days of, Rambo, Nora Owen ( in Justice ) Sean Ryan, even GV Wright, then we had real politics in NCD. Now its just tame.

Antway on Pat Kenny Radio today they speculate, Reilly, Ryan, then perhaps Daly as the dark horse.
Dog fight for last seat between 2 FF, (O'Brien maybe ahead), and Trevor, with Trevor by a short head. So perhaps no FF in the area for the first time in ?? how long.

The most interesting part of this election will be the count, roll on Sat.

Uriel.

martinn123 wrote: »

Oh for the days of, Rambo, Nora Owen ( in Justice ) Sean Ryan, even GV Wright, then we had real politics in NCD. Now its just tame.

Antway on Pat Kenny Radio today they speculate, Reilly, Ryan, then perhaps Daly as the dark horse.
Dog fight for last seat between 2 FF, (O'Brien maybe ahead), and Trevor, with Trevor by a short head. So perhaps no FF in the area for the first time in ?? how long.

The most interesting part of this election will be the count, roll on Sat.

Kennedy topped the poll last time around didn't he?

I am not sure on his chances this time, in some ways I'd actually be surprised if he wasn't re-elected. From what I've seen his entire time as a Deputy has been very much devoted to local issues and he was very quick to come out against Cowen. He has also distanced himself a fair bit from the FF body in recent times.

it will be interesting to see anyway. It's a pity that, with the exception of Reilly, I personally could not see any of the candidates being a future Minister (irrespective of their party or the current economic crises etc...)

Peckham

Jimdagym wrote: »

Has at ony else played "spot the fianna fail logo sn Michael kennedys election posters?"

It's a good game.

I had two canvassers call to my house on Saturday afternoon on behalf of Kennedy (no sign of the man himself though).

I challenged them on the almost invisible FF logo on his posters, and got them to look at the three posters I can see from my front door. They dodged the question by switching the conversation to local issues (Metro North), and made their departure quite quickly as they that I was a lost cause in terms of them getting any sort of worthwhile preference vote.

Was surprised to see FF calling to the door though - I was under the impression that they were keeping a low profile.

In terms of canvassers at the door, we've had: Farrell (himself), Kennedy (others on his behalf), Ryan (but we were out at the time).

Corsendonk

Boards Poll Today

SP: Daly C
FG: Reilly J
Lab: Kelleher T
GP: Sargent T

Has Rolestown National School suddenly established boards.ie accounts or has Labour voters started to turn to Kelleher as a viable option as TD?

cathy01

Maybe its a mistake, Ryan is 86 , and Keller is 83 first prferance vote???

The Hill Billy

There was a lot of movement in votes over the weekend. Ryan & Kelleher have been switching positions nearly each time the vote calculations are run. First pref votes are displaying in real time I think, but vote transfers aren't updated until a new calculation is run. Date & time of latest calc is now displayed on the 'Examine the transfers' page.

Nodster

Desperate measures or what? - certain candidate personally signing his leaflet....only Balbriggan man

cathy01

no, I think thats because he is the only Balbriggan person running.
Correct me if Im wrong.:o

dabestman1

just for a bit of informfation, how would people rate dalys chances of getting a seat having read the constituency been redrawn since 2007?

Jimdagym

http://www.finegael2011.com/game/

Peckham

dabestman1 wrote: »

just for a bit of informfation, how would people rate dalys chances of getting a seat having read the constituency been redrawn since 2007?

Would figure she'll stay in the running for the duration, but she'll find it hard to pick up the transfers and the constituency boundary changes will hurt her.

Final seat will come down to Sargent/Daly/Farrell, with Sargent shading it. Reilly, Ryan and Kennedy to the the first three elected.

Spidermany

Peckham wrote: »

Would figure she'll stay in the running for the duration, but she'll find it hard to pick up the transfers and the constituency boundary changes will hurt her.

Final seat will come down to Sargent/Daly/Farrell, with Sargent shading it. Reilly, Ryan and Kennedy to the the first three elected.

O'Brien not Kennedy, but otherwise agreed.

RobFowl

Just thought I'd try to encourage everyone who can to get out and vote this friday.
Looking at Libya this morning has highlighted (for me anyway) how important it is to use our votes.
We all have our favourites but with the candidates standing in North Dublin there is someone to represent at least partially all shades of political opinion. Any I know are decent, hard-working and honest as well.
Good luck to all those standing and for those successful I don't envy you but this is certainly the most important election in my lifetime and we all need you to do a good job...

The Rooster

RobFowl wrote: »

Just thought I'd try to encourage everyone who can to get out and vote this friday.

+1

Plus vote the whole way down your voting card

The Hill Billy

I had been planning to come home in time to vote, but unfortunately work has gotten in the way. The polling stations close at 10pm tomorrow - is that right?

Frank Spencer

Hill Billy wrote: »

I had been planning to come home in time to vote, but unfortunately work has gotten in the way. The polling stations close at 10pm tomorrow - is that right?

Correct and open at 7am.

Any chance of getting home?

martinn123

I think FF are going to be wiped out in this election. With them polling so low there is possibly only one quota available, with 2 candidates I can see them both eliminated, as they will attract few transfers.

If Reilly gets well over a quota his surplus may bring in his running mate,

so my predection, Reilly, Ryan, Sargent, both FF eliminated, and a few hundred votes seperating, Daly,FG ( forgot his name ) and Kelleher, with Daly getting the nod without reaching the quota.

Now off to Paddy Power's:)

SeaSide

Order of elimination will be the minefield.

Kelleher and Daly will transfer to each other so whoever lives longest wins.

No longer seeing a FF seat - if FF are at 10% in Dublin they are both gone

My revised call

Reilly
Ryan
Sargeant
Kelleher/Daly

but if Reilly gets a big enough surplus Farrell to get through instead of Sargeant

Final thoughts is do you want a strong Government or a strong opposition?

The Hill Billy

Frank Spencer wrote: »

Correct and open at 7am.

Any chance of getting home?

My new flight doesn't land until 22:05 tomorrow evening.

tbh

got a letter from Leo V telling us it's crazy that Swords has been split, it will probably be returned to Dub N after the next census, but that if elected he'll work as hard for us as he does for the rest of the Dublin West heads.
Not a single canvasser this campaign.

Jimdagym

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451

Reilly 1/40
Ryan 1/12
Daly 2/5
O'Brien 6/4
Kennedy 6/4
Farrell 13/8
Sargeant 13/8
Kellehar 6/1
Harold 20/1

Frank Spencer

Corsendonk wrote: »

A certain well know bookmaker is quoting these odds today

James Reilly (FG) 1/14
Michael Kennedy (FF) 8/11
Alan Farrell (FG) 11/1
Brendan Ryan (Lab) 1/10
Trevor Sargent (Gr) 5/4
Candidate (SF) 12/1
Clare Daly (Soc) 1/3
Tom Kelleher (Lab) 13/8
Marcus de Brun (Ind) 25/1
Darragh O'Brien (FF) 8/11

Jimdagym wrote: »

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451

Reilly 1/40
Ryan 1/12
Daly 2/5
O'Brien 6/4
Kennedy 6/4
Farrell 13/8
Sargeant 13/8
Kellehar 6/1
Harold 20/1

Some people may find it interesting to compare the current odds to those from 4 weeks ago.

The two FF candidates and Tom Kelleher's odds have drifted significantly whilst Alan Farrell's odds have shortened dramatically along with Reilly's. Daly's odds have also lengthened slightly.

Sargent's and Ryan's odds have remained pretty steady.

RobFowl

Interesting change in the odds over the course of the Campaign.

I too see it as Reilly, Ryan and Daly with a 4 way scrap for the final seat.

Honestly think it's to close to call and suspect it'll go right down to the wire. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a recount either.

If I had to put money on it (and I wouldn't :rolleyes:) I'd say Sargent would edge it.

Splitting Swords was a crazy decision and can't see any logic in it at all.

Tough luck Hill Billy. Especially as it seems to be an election where every vote will count.

Beasty

The Boards Poll now has more detailed Transfer Analysis (unfortunately not including Clare Daly's transfers, presumably because the Socialist Party is running a very small number of candidates nationally), and Demographics for the Dublin North Constituency (it has similar information at the national level also)

dsmythy

The Rooster wrote: »

+1

Plus vote the whole way down your voting card

Why? I'll vote for who i'd like to be a TD and leave the rest.

The Hill Billy

According to the detailed transfer analysis FG are picking up a significant number of transfers. This could bode well for Cllr Farrell.

cathy01

Ive been banging on to everyone that will listen about how nice Trevor Sargent is and what a great guy he is etc.My eight year old daughter asked me today , if I was in love with him, than she asked was I going to get a divorce from her Daddy and Marry Trevor.What goes through a childs mind?Who knows.......Roll on the election .............:D