General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

Spidermany

Am I right in saying that the boundaries of the Dublin North Constituency may have changed since the last election, but we will still have 4 TDs?

Spidermany

I would not commence Metro North, but I think the DART should be extended to Balbriggan which I think is the extent of the County Dublin train stations.

There are a lot of commuters in the towns along this route, and yet again due to the vagaries of the weather we cannot rely on Dublin Bus past Swords.

I do think it's ridiculous that Dublin's airport doesn't have a rail link, but I think more people would benefit from an extended dart.

Uriel.

Spidermany wrote: »

I would not commence Metro North, but I think the DART should be extended to Balbriggan which I think is the extent of the County Dublin train stations.

There are a lot of commuters in the towns along this route, and yet again due to the vagaries of the weather we cannot rely on Dublin Bus past Swords.

I do think it's ridiculous that Dublin's airport doesn't have a rail link, but I think more people would benefit from an extended dart.

I have to disagree with you on this one (maybe that's because I live in Swords) :-) I think MN would be a much greater asset and priority over an extension of the dart line. MN takes in a much larger catxhment area and would be the first rapid transport opened up to bog areas like ballymun, swords and the airport.

I don't disagree that the dart line should be extended but I believe MN takes priority.

Spidermany

My arguments are:

1. It would be cheaper to extend the DART.
2. The bus service to the areas you mentioned is a reasonable service, with alternative routes I believe.
3. I live in Rush

Obviously, by far the most compelling reason would be number 3.

Corsendonk

Spidermany wrote: »

Am I right in saying that the boundaries of the Dublin North Constituency may have changed since the last election, but we will still have 4 TDs?

Ok I broke my golden rule about posting again in this thread :pac: Yes we have 4 seats in the next election and some important boundary changes to the south of the constituency. Some Swords and Portmarnock voters might be shocked to find they are no longer in Dublin North. The below post was in 2009 on Politics.ie so some has changed but I think the poster did a pretty good job of analysis. It does shed some light on the Socialist Party interest in Donabate/Portrane and Rush in the last couple of years.

Politics.ie 2009

Two of the most interesting constituencies next time are Dublin North and North-East because of the boundary changes. The Boundary Commission really made some significant changes here which in the light of recent opinion poll and local election trends suggest they may not run with conventional wisdom. Dublin North loses 22k of population to DNE and DW. The Portmarnock area pop. 9200 moves to DNE and a chunk of Swords pop. 11700goes to West. A further circa 2800 goes from DNE to NC. Who are the winners and losers?

In terms of DNE, losing some city vote to NC and gaining a large middle-class block of vote, would appear to be curtains for Larry O'Toole and SF. Especially in light of the local elections. Will Labour run Peter Coyle as a 2nd candidate as he represents the Portmarnock/Howth area as a Cllr and is a really strong votegetter in the Portmarnock area? Michael Woods is retiring and they do not seem to have a ready made replacement in the constituency. A Peter Coyle/Tommy Broughan division of the constituency could potentially deliver 2 seats at FF's expense especially as Dublin 3 seaters are just going to kill FF at the next GE. Terrence Flanagan seems a certainty for FG but I just cannot see FG carving out the possibility of a second seat here if Coyle runs for Labour. If the election were held tomorrow I would call it 2 LAB 1 FG if Labour run Coyle. Labour HQ must be thinking this way?

Dublin North is a bit more tricky. The loss of voters from the Swords and Portmarnock areas will hit both sitting FF TD's. But will FF just run with their two incumbents who are now fishing out of a smaller pool of vote in the Southern end of the constituency? I think not. I think they will have to find a candidate for the Northern end but they do not have even a Cllr in Balbriggan! They may have to turn to Jim Glennon to run. For FG and Labour the maths are simple - run a Swords/Malahide candidate along with a Northern candidate. For FG that means running a Malahide candidate (our very own Fingal MCC most likely) along with O'Reilly and for Labour it means running a Swords candidate with Ryan. The new Dublin North is very mixed for the other contenders. Claire Daly will not miss Portmarnock but she will miss the Swords area gone to West. Trevor Sargent will lament the loss of middle-class vote but his Northern base is in tact.

In short FF will have to run 3 candidates for 1 seat. Pick the winner from that yourself. I think that Trevor and Claire may now lose out. Trevor because of the weakness in the Green vote and Claire because of the loss of a significant chunk of her Swords base. There are 3 seats between FG/LAB but who will get the majority? My guess is that FG are best placed for 2 as the rural part of the constituency is intact and I think that Brendan Ryan is actually a pretty weak candidate. As of today I call 2 FG 1 LAB 1 FF.

Map of changes
http://www.constituency-commission.ie/Images/map_c.jpg

Zoom feature on the link is pretty poor, if I find a better map I will post up.

Posters in the south of the constituency may want to review the map before posting as you might not have a option to vote in Dublin North.:eek:

Corsendonk

List of Members Interests of Current North Dublin TDs.


FYI- REGISTER OF INTERESTS OF MEMBERS OF DÁIL ÉIREANN PURSUANT TO SECTION 6 OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACTS IN RESPECT OF THE REGISTRATION PERIOD 1 JANUARY, 2009 TO 31 DECEMBER, 2009.

Reg of Dail Members Interests 2009.

O'BRIEN, Darragh (Dublin North)
1. Occupational Income …….. Nil

2. Shares ……………………..
Investment Bond: Friends First L.A.C., Cherrywood Business Park, Loughlinstown, Co. Dublin: life assurance company.

3. Directorships……………… Nil

4. Land ………………………
11 Castleheath, Malahide, Co. Dublin, apartment: rental property.

5. Gifts ……………………… Nil

6. Property and Service …….. Nil

7. Travel Facilities ………….. Nil

8. Remunerated Position ……. Nil

9. Contracts …………………. Nil

SARGENT, Trevor (Dublin North)
1. Occupational Income …….. Faic

2. Shares …………………….. Faic

3. Directorships……………… Faic

4. Land ……………………… Faic

5. Gifts ……………………… Faic

6. Property and Service …….. Faic

7. Travel Facilities ………….. Faic

8. Remunerated Position ……. Faic

9. Contracts …………………. Faic

faic= nothing

KENNEDY, Michael (Dublin North)
1. Occupational Income ……..
Insurance Broker: Lordan Magnier Insurances Ltd., The Plaza, Swords, Co. Dublin.

2. Shares …………………….. Nil

3. Directorships……………… Executive Director: (1) Lordan Magnier Insurances Ltd.: insurance brokers; (2) Lordan Magnier & Partners Ltd., The Plaza, Swords, Co. Dublin: insurance brokers.

4. Land ……………………… (1) Drumbawn, Newtownmountkennedy, Co. Wicklow, 50 acres farmland plus 2 houses on land: 1 house used as holiday home, one is vacant, land rented out;
(2) Apartment, 25 Balmoral Place, Brewery Wharf, 2 Bowman Lane, Leeds LS10 1HQ: rented out.

5. Gifts ……………………… Nil

6. Property and Service …….. Nil

7. Travel Facilities ………….. Nil

8. Remunerated Position ……. Nil

9. Contracts …………………. Nil


REILLY, Dr. James (Dublin North)
1. Occupational Income …….. (1) Medical doctor: Fingal Clinic, The Square, Lusk, Co. Dublin; (2) Landlord: Lusk Town Centre and Surgery, Lusk, Co. Dublin.

2. Shares …………………….. Nil

3. Directorships……………… Lusk Property Investments Limited: Century House, Harolds X Rd., Dublin 6W: property management and leasing company.

4. Land ……………………… (1) ½ acre Cock Hill, Stamullen, Co. Meath: site; (2) Derelict ruin on ¼ acre, Balrothery, Co. Dublin: site - derelict - no planning permission; (3) Commercial building, Lusk Town Centre, Lusk: comprising surgery, treatment rooms, consulting rooms, offices, pharmacy, supermarket, bookmakers, barbers, restaurant, apartments & 3 sites for town houses & vacant floor: surgery & associated rooms used for my medical practice, the other buildings leased to tenants, apartment for my own use; (4) Former family farm, Baldrummond, Lusk, Co. Dublin, 86 acres - let for tillage; (5) Holiday home, Doonbeg No. 32, The Courtyard: investment; (6) House, Seafoam, Rush, Co. Dublin on .7 acre: residence; (7) Green Hills Nursing Home, Carrick on Suir, Tipperary, ¼ share: care of the elderly; (8) Commercial site on one third share of 1.3 acres at Nevinstown, Swords, Co. Dublin: proposed "one stop shop" medical centre; (9) Land at Loughton, Moneygall, Co. Offaly 150 acres: farming & woodland; (10) Golf club membership at Doonbeg G.C., Co. Clare: golf and leisure.

5. Gifts ……………………… Nil

6. Property and Service …….. Nil

7. Travel Facilities ………….. Nil

8. Remunerated Position ……. Nil

9. Contracts …………………. Mother & Child Scheme, Vaccination Scheme, Heartwatch, GMS Schemes: HSE, St. Patrick Dunne's Hospital, Dublin 2: Minister for Health.

Other Information Provided: Normal contracts associated with a GP's practice.

Spidermany

Corsendonk - two very interesting posts - thank you

Corsendonk

Public Standard Allowance(PSA) Claimed- ok if cost and service provided by your local TD is a factor who you vote for, the expenses claims below from March 10 to date might be of interest. It seems that their all are consistent with expenses even when the Dail is on holidays!! We have two travel and accomodation bands Dublin and 1 and the PSA is a calculation of TAA and the Public Representative Allowance. Michael Kennedy seems value for money as he has to travel both North and South of the constituency on the lowest expenses claimed.

Source:Oireachtas.ie

TRAVEL AND ACCOMMODATION ALLOWANCE (TAA)
This allowance covers the costs of travel to and from Leinster House, accommodation where applicable and, for Deputies only, constituency travel. The allowance is based on the Dublin band and twelve bands of 30km depending on the distance from Leinster House with a fixed accommodation allowance. Each Member is paid a band allowance based on the distance from their declared normal place of residence to Leinster House.

Source:http://www.oireachtas.ie/ViewDoc.asp?DocId=-1&CatID=169&m=m

Darragh O'Brien
PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
Vouched Dublin 31/03/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 30/04/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 27/05/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 25/06/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 30/07/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 27/08/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 24/09/2010 3,141.67
Vouched Dublin 29/10/2010 3,141.67

Trevor Sargent
PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
Vouched 1 31/03/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 30/04/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 27/05/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 25/06/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 30/07/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 27/08/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 24/09/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 29/10/2010 4,483.84


Michael Kennedy
PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
Unvouched Dublin 31/03/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 30/04/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 27/05/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 25/06/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 30/07/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 27/08/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 24/09/2010 2,250.00
Unvouched Dublin 29/10/2010 2,250.00

James Reilly
PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
Vouched 1 31/03/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 30/04/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 27/05/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 25/06/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 30/07/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 27/08/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 23/09/2010 4,483.84
Vouched 1 29/10/2010 4,483.84

TDs PRA
VOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €25,700 MAXIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

Where evidence in the form of vouchers or receipts is available to show that the expenses were incurred (held for five years as subject to audit)

UNVOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €15,000 MINIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

This amount is certified by Members as expended in accordance with the regulations.

Purposes of Allowance
1. Rent, rates and other such charges in relation to an office or offices,
2. Utilities of an office or offices (e.g. electricity and gas bills),
3. Improvements to office accommodation,
4. Signage in respect of the constituency office,
5. Purchase or maintenance of office furniture or equipment,
6. Purchase of stationery,
7. Insurance including for office accommodation or equipment and public liability insurance,
8. Cleaning of office accommodation,
9. Telephone calls, otherwise than from Leinster House, including line rental and mobile phone calls, relating to the performance of his/her duties as a Member,
10. Web hosting and other related computer costs,
11. Hiring rooms for clinics or other meetings relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member of the Oireachtas,
12. Leaflet and newsletter distribution,
13. Advertising relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member,
14. Attendance at conferences relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member (except expenses relating to travel).

Brendan Ryan Senator
PRA TAA Band Date of Payment Amount
Vouched 1 31/03/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 30/04/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 27/05/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 25/06/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 30/07/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 27/08/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 23/09/2010 3,175.50
Vouched 1 29/10/2010 3,175.50

Source: Oireachtas.ie

PUBLIC REPRESENTATION ALLOWANCE
SENATORS


Members select either a vouched or unvouched allowance option at the start of the year.

Unused amounts will be refunded by end of February 2011.
Applications for additional amounts will be submitted by end of January 2011
VOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €15,000 MAXIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

Where evidence in the form of vouchers or receipts is available to show that the expenses were incurred (held for five years as subject to audit)

UNVOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €9,250 MINIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

This amount is certified by Members as expended in accordance with the regulations.

Purposes of Allowance
1. Telephone calls, otherwise than from Leinster House, including line rental and mobile phone calls, relating to the performance of his/her duties as a Member,
2. Web hosting and other related computer costs,
3. Leaflet and newsletter distribution,
4. Advertising relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member,
5. Hiring rooms for meetings relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member and
6. Attendance at conferences relating to the performance of his or her duties as a Member (except expenses relating to travel).

LeoB

Corsendonk. Great work. This is good stuff to have out in hte public domain.

2 Questions if I may,
Why are the figures all the same for each T.D?
Why would you think Michael Kennedy has lowest expenses?

Thanks again. Did you ever consider....... Eh challenging one of these T.Ds? for a seat that is!!

Corsendonk

LeoB wrote: »

2 Questions if I may,
Why are the figures all the same for each T.D?
Why would you think Michael Kennedy has lowest expenses?

I will answer your last question first. As explained the Public Service Allowance or expenses is made up of two parts, the Travel and Accomodation Allowance(TAA) and Public Representation Allowance(PRA)

TAA
Michael Kennedy like Darragh O'Brien comes under the Dublin Band which has an upper Travel and Accomodation Allowance of €8,400. While Sargent and Reilly have a serious advantage with a TAA of €24,457. A serious unfair advantage for TDs in the same constituency representing voters from all parts in my opinion but every system has its advantages and disadvantages. Thats one factor that his expenses are lower.


Band Number Distance Office Holders Annual

Dublin Less than 25km €8,400

1 25km or more but less than 60km €24,457

2 60km or more but less than 90km €27,150

3 90km or more but less than 120km €28,950

4 120km or more but less than 150km €30,289

5 150km or more but less than 180km €30,750

6 180km or more but less than 210km €31,196

7 210km or more but less than 240km €31,643

8 240km or more but less than 270km €32,550

9 270km or more but less than 300km €33,443

10 300km or more but less than 330km €34,350

11 330km or more but less than 360km €35,257

12 360km or more €36,150

Oireachtas.ie

Verification and Certification for Payment for TAA
Payment of this allowance is verified by attendance at Leinster House. Members must attend a minimum of 120 days annually to receive full payment. The 120 days can be registered on any day that Leinster House is open to attend and is not specific to the sittings of the House.

Where attendance is below this, Members will refund 1% of the travel and accommodation allowance payable for each day below 120 days. For 2010 the attendance requirement is 100 days attendances as the scheme started on 1st March.

Members must certify within one month of the end of the year that the amount paid to them was used for expenses allowed under the regulations. Members have two months from the end of the year in which to make refunds


SYSTEM FOR RECORDING ATTENDANCE

Members may record their attendance in Leinster House using an electronic system for recording attendance in order to register the attendance for the payment of the travel and accommodation allowances. In addition, a manual system, with proof of attendance, is administered by the Houses of the Oireachtas Service. The regulations provide that the attendance record may be corrected, for the appropriate number of days, if the Member can show that their attendance was not recorded at Leinster House due to:

Attendance abroad in the performance of his or her duties as a Member or as an Office Holder, or in the State, (otherwise than in Leinster House) as part of or on behalf of an Oireachtas Committee,
Ill-health certified by a medical practitioner (the Member must declare that the absence is medically certified),
Extraordinary circumstances, determined by the Ceann Comhairle or Cathaoirleach, as may be appropriate, to be good and sufficient and which could not have been foreseen by the Member. In this regard, a Member must apply to the Ceann Comhairle or Cathaoirleach as appropriate

Secondly, Michael Kennedy expenses of the 4 TDS are unvouched for so he can only claim a max of €15,000 for this year. He would have agreed to the unvounched allowance at the start of the scheme, he could apply for more at the end of the year. Its basically an option to do your books at the end of year while the others have to keep their expenses in order throughout the year but they get a higher allowance for that so more transparency.


PUBLIC REPRESENTATION ALLOWANCE (PRA)

Members select either a vouched or unvouched allowance option at the start of the year.

Unused amounts will be refunded by end of February 2011.
Applications for additional amounts will be submitted by end of January 2011


VOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €25,700 MAXIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

Where evidence in the form of vouchers or receipts is available to show that the expenses were incurred (held for five years as subject to audit)

UNVOUCHED ALLOWANCE: €15,000 MINIMUM ANNUAL AMOUNT

Michael Kennedy Expenses Budget
€15,000 PRA
€8,400 TAA
€23,400 PSA max yearly expenses

Currently his expenses are on target for €22,500 for the year.

It will be tougher next year as currently with the introduction of the scheme in March 2010 their PRA is spent over 10 months while next year they have the same Budget for 12 months. Of course I could say their expenses budget for 2010 should be lower because they only have 10 months. But they kept that quiet in all parties.:rolleyes:


Darragh O'Brien Expenses Budget
€25,700 PRA
€8,400 TAA
€34,100 PSA max yearly expenses

Currently his expenses are on target for €31,476 for the year.

James Reilly & Trevor Sargent Expenses Budgets
€25,700 PRA
€24,457 TAA
€50,157 PSA max yearly expenses

Currently both have expenses on target for €44,838 for the year.

Just to compare fellow band 1 members monthly expenses
Mary Wallace(FF) 4,483.84
Sean Power(FF) 4,483.84
Fergus O'Dowd(FG) 4,483.84
Sean O'Fearghail(FF) 3,592.17(unvouched)
Andrew Doyle(FG) 4,483.84
Bernard Durkan(FG) 3,592.17(unvouched)
Thomas Byrne(FF) 4,483.84
Michael Fitzpatrick(FF) 4,483.84
Emmet Stag(LB) 3,592.17(unvouched)

Strange isn't it for anyone that has filled out expenses in the private sector to see expenses consistently matching every month with so many different individuals and variables involved. Remember this covers electricity and some calls so the consistent figures are staggering. Anyone else think its just a paper exercise going on here?

Corsendonk

FYI
Constituency Profile for Dublin North- information is pulled from 2006 Census so some info will have changed dramatically with the recession but an interesting browse all the same. We are better educated than the average citizen and have a longer commute to work than the average citizen among many facts to delight your friends in the pub or club with!!

http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/library/constituencies_profiles/Dublin_North.pdf

LeoB

Wow You are reallly Sherlock Holmes?

I suppose just maybe they actually spend more and claim the max allowable? My fuel over a mont for the van is probably around €300 but I do the approx the same miles every day give or take 5 0r 10 so it could be €290 or €310 but they I imagine would have a lot of variables to factor in. Thats strange ok.

Thanks for that post, excellent.

Oh and the challenge in my previous post?????

Jimdagym

Alan Farrell is running. Only (re-)elected as counciller June last year.

Alan Farrell

Jimdagym wrote: »

Alan Farrell is running. Only (re-)elected as counciller June last year.

only?

Corsendonk

Alan Farrell wrote: »

only?

http://www.fingalcoco.ie/Files/Council/2009%20Local%20Election%20Results%20Howth%20Malahide%20LEA.pdf

Elected 4th out of 5 on the 10th count after receiving the second highest(2739) first preference in the ward of Malahide Howth. Tranfers were rather weak do.

Smart idea selecting a candidate from the south of the constituency with another candidate from the north/centre, FF did it with GV and Jim Glennon in the past to help manage the votes better. But the Malahide-Howth Ward is split between two constituncies so not a strong as move as it seems.

Local factor won't count either with two sitting TDs with very close links to that area of the constituency unless the family tree can be used to point out relatives living in the centre and north areas.

James Reilly was elected on the 10th count last time so will he be strong enough this time around to pull in transfer for the other FG candidate?

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2007&cons=96

wow sierra

I hope that one word comment from Alan Farrell will be the last we hear from him on this thread. I assume comments from an actual candidate counts as electioneering?

SeaSide

wow sierra wrote: »

I hope that one word comment from Alan Farrell will be the last we hear from him on this thread. I assume comments from an actual candidate counts as electioneering?

Perhaps a separate electioneering, full contact, spitting, biting, name-calling and scratching thread???

Alan Farrell

wow sierra wrote: »

I hope that one word comment from Alan Farrell will be the last we hear from him on this thread. I assume comments from an actual candidate counts as electioneering?

I'm sure the readers of this thread/regional area will not view my reply as electioneering given I've been here for a number of years.

The Hill Billy

wow sierra - Quit the back-seat modding.

Alan has a proven track record as a poster on many topics in this forum & I am sure that he will abide be the forum & thread rules.

HB

Corsendonk

Declared Candidates for North Dublin so far. 4 seats to be filled.

Source: Electionsireland.org

Michael Kennedy FF
Daragh O'Brien FF
James Reilly FG
Cllr Alan Farrell FG
Sen Brendan Ryan Labour
Trevor Sargent Greens
Cllr Clare Daly Socialist Party


As yet no white smoke from the dark horse party in the next election SF. Interestly Labour have decided to play it safe and only selected one candidate in Dublin North, there were rumours that they were going to have two on the card.

Even do the Greens have took a battering I expect Trendy Trev to survive if he remains the only strong candidate from Balbriggan, people might not like him or his policies but for many any local TD is better than none so he should scrape in on transfers from heavily populated Balbriggan.

Joe Higgins MEP will be running in Dublin West, he should benefit from any of Clare Daly supporters transferring from Dublin North into Dublin West.

Jimdagym

Corsendonk wrote: »

Joe Higgins will be running in Dublin West, he should benefit from any of Clare Daly supporters transferring from Dublin North into Dublin West.

You mean MEP Joe Higgins.

LeoB

My prediction is
Darragh OBrien
Michael Kennedy
Brendan Ryan
James Reilly.

I think Brian Cowan done a good job today especially on News at 1 with Sean O'Rourke. He put it up big time to Enda Kenny and Eamonn Gilmore. It was the feisty Cowan we have not seen for about 2 years. There could be a little fight left there yet. (I accept he will not be Taoiseach after election)

I am not so sure Trendy Trevor will get re elected. From what I hear around Balbriggan his support is somewhat on the slide and has been for a while. As was pointed out earlier we need to get away from this local politics, Parish Pump stuff and hopefully people from N.C.D will see it the same way and vote in who is best for the constituency and not for someone who fixed a pothole or filled in a form for them.

I would like to see and hear a bit more Brendan Ryan, he is a very nice man and I have been impressed with him when I met him at at a few meetings. I think unless Enda Kenny can pull a rabbit from a hat F.G wont do as well as predicted. I personally am sick of his snide comments and where I was reasonably impressed with him last year I dont think he would be any better than what is currently leading us.

I dont think Clare Daly or Alan Farrell will get elected. Alan I doont think has the profile out here and people might like Clare on issues such as EirGrid but I dont think The Socialist Party have the all round support.

SeaSide

Don't see FF getting transfers from anyone other than themselves so they will be unlikely to get to the two seats. I would see either Labour or FG getting a second seat at the last count. Third seat likely to be a real toss-up.

LeoB

Quote SeaSide, Third seat likely to be a real toss-up.

Think you can add 4th to that. I just dont see the point the change for change sake. By that I mean, I hear quite a few say say throw out F.F. but the opposition from what I can se dont offer a great alternative.

One thing I would like see is serious electorial reform and a change to our political set-up I have been know to be a bit cynical on a few issues but I think there are very good and capable people in all the parties, F.F., F.G, Lab, S.F., I would like to see the best people returned after the next election given the important roles, no matter what party they are from. But will the dynasties of Irish political life go for that? Not a hope.

SeaSide

Sorry bad translation between my brain and the keyboard

I see the seats falling in this order:

FG
Labour
FF probably or SP
FG or Labour ( not sure if Labour will run a second candidate though)

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

Sorry bad translation between my brain and the keyboard

I see the seats falling in this order:

FG
Labour
FF probably or SP
FG or Labour ( not sure if Labour will run a second candidate though)

Labour have only declared one, Ryan was a shoe in for running. Labour made him a Senator to boost his profile in the contituency in an area with a strong Labour streak. As I said in a previous post I think their playing it safe and going for one seat this time around and build upon that in future elections. Didn't Labour have a TD with the surname Ryan before?? Ohh wait yes the brother!!:rolleyes:

There has been some disappointment already at some of Labours choices of candidates for the coming election, Upton, Spring, Ryan, all family members of existing or former TDs. Nepotism exists on the left too.

A lot of people seem to think that Reilly is a cert for the Health Minister position due to his powerful position as Deputy Leader of FG but bear in mind that he secured that position on the back of his support for Enda(remember him?), if Enda falls in the next leaders struggle Reilly will be lucky to get a Junior Ministers job unless he plunges the knife into Enda first.

Peckham

I say the seats will be filled in the following order....

1) Reilly - massive national profile, is Minister for Health in waiting, will increase his vote from last time and top poll to be elected on first count

2) Ryan - personally I feel he's a weak candidate, but is very active on the ground and the Labour vote surge will carry him through

3) Kennedy - his vote will probably fall back to the high 6,000s, but you'd feel O'Brien is only going to last a couple of counts and his transfers will take Kennedy over the line

4) Daly - although she's lost a chunk of votes with the revised boundary, she's going to do very well this time out. She did well enough last time, and that was effectively as an Independent. The formal grouping between the Socialist parties will mean they'll have much higher national prominence, and so long as she stays ahead of Sargent she'll get through. Sargent is going to lose a lot of his personal vote through the anti-Green sentiment

Corsendonk

Peckham wrote: »

4) Daly - although she's lost a chunk of votes with the revised boundary, she's going to do very well this time out. She did well enough last time, and that was effectively as an Independent. The formal grouping between the Socialist parties will mean they'll have much higher national prominence, and so long as she stays ahead of Sargent she'll get through. Sargent is going to lose a lot of his personal vote through the anti-Green sentiment

Not to forget her New Labour make over!!
1997


Present

tbh

Personally, I think Reilly, Kennedy, Ryan with the fourth a shootout between sargent, daly and Alan Farrell.
I'd be optimistic that AF will get enough transfers from Reilly to get him home.

Jimdagym

Peckham wrote: »

I say the seats will be filled in the following order....

1) Reilly - massive national profile, is Minister for Health in waiting, will increase his vote from last time and top poll to be elected on first count

Absolutely zero chance of anybody being elected on the first count.