General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

ragg

Corsendonk wrote: »

1. Dr James Reilly TD Fine Gael - potentially
2. Michael Kennedy TD FF - not on your nelly
3. Darragh O'Brien TD FF - nope
4. Trevor Sargent TD Greens - will get a vote not sure what priority
5. Cllr Alan Farrell Fine Gael - not a chance in hell
6. Cllr Clare Daly Socialist Party - nope
7. Cllr Tom Kelleher Labour - potentially
8. Senator Brendan Ryan Labour - potentially
9. Dr Marcus de Brun Ind - would like to, but I fear it would be a vote wasted

My intiall thought process, but would likely change somewhat if we get some SF candidates declared

Corsendonk

rubberdiddies wrote: »

Based on that the only candidate I can see working nationally is James Reilly (after all I've never seen him do anything locally.....but maybe that's a good thing!)

He is the Deputy Leader of FG since he came to Enda rescue so he gets substantially more media time than the rest of the sitting TDs. It may appear he works more due to that higher profile and as Deputy Leader he speaks on a wide variety of subjects apart from Health and most likely he has a team of researchers and fellow deputies making him look good. Remember when he started off in the Dail in 2007 he seem to struggle with the workload so much that he couldn't drive home to Rush.


Sunday Tribune January 16, 2011

FG TD claims €32k for 18-mile journeys to Dáil

Travel and subsistence from Rush for James Reilly twice the average of Dublin deputies

Dublin-based Fine Gael health spokesman James Reilly claimed more than €32,000 – an average of €1,800 a month – for travel and subsistence despite having a home in Rush, just 18 miles from Dáil Éireann.

The former Irish Medical Organisation president also owns a house on the Offaly/ Tipperary border, but a spokesman for Fine Gael said the claims had "nothing to do with a Tipperary residence".

The claims relating to his first 18 months in the Dáil were almost twice the average of Dublin TDs for the period, and between 46% and 64% higher than other Dublin North deputies.

Reilly says that the reason for the high figure in '07/'08 is that when he first became a TD, he spent a lot of overnights in Dublin city centre, rather than travelling the 18 miles to his home in Rush, north county Dublin.

The amount which Reilly claimed for 'travel and subsistence' dropped dramatically from the end of 2008 – he claimed just €10,282 in 2009.

A spokesman for Fine Gael stressed that Reilly's "primary residence is in Rush and always has been since he was elected".

"He incurred more expenses during that period [June 2007-December 2008] and it has nothing to do with a Tipperary residence... In 2009, he made a conscious decision to get to Rush at night and he incurred less expenses from then on," the spokesman said.

The average 'travel and subsistence' claim for the period June 2007 to December 2008 for Dublin TDs was under €19,000, some €13,700 less than Reilly's claim of €32,624.

However, it should be pointed out that Reilly's base in Rush is further from the Dáil than the two Fianna Fáil TDs in the constituency, Darragh O'Brien and Micheal Kennedy, and under the old system he was in a different expenses band to them.

The spokesman for Fine Gael stressed that, unlike most Dublin TDs, Reilly was fully entitled to claim for overnights. "James was in accordance with the old regime. He was outside the exclusion zone," he said.

Reilly has been one of the big successes of the Fine Gael front bench, producing a new landmark health policy for the party and providing trenchant criticism of health minister Mary Harney.

Hopefully if he becomes Minister for Health he can screw the consultants like his deal for the IMO screwed the state. From what I can see public funds subsidise the private sector at the cost of the public health service. Then to put the cherry on the cake for the cash strapped consultants paying off mortgages on bad property investments we buy private health care because we can't trust the public. Only in Ireland.:rolleyes:

Some anecdotal evidence, a very good friend of mine works as a senior PA to a consultant in a well know southside hospital. The consultants should have a 50/50 split between private and public patients as part of the IMO agreement She informs me that typically most of the consultants do 70% private and 30% but using some inventive counting the reports produced every month for the dept of Health have figure closer to the 50% split.

Thats all they do generate reports that tell the governments what they want to hear. Now I accept when Michael Martin was Minister of Health he was the King of Reports and Mary Harney followed suit but surely responsiblity for the mess in Irish Healthcare rests with the medical staff and civil servents caressing these figures for their own financial benefit and career advancement?

Corsendonk

ragg wrote: »

My intiall thought process, but would likely change somewhat if we get some SF candidates declared

Listening to the tally experts on the radio for Marcus de Bruin to have a chance he will need a good block of first preference votes otherwise he may not be around for the 4/5th preference votes.


Rare example of Independent coming from behind

Finian McGrath in 2002, he polled 6th in the 1st count then managed to get elected on the 6th count.
http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2002&cons=97&ref=

Corsendonk

rubberdiddies wrote: »

On a separate note, can Claire daly be prosecuted for littering? Her election posters are already up outside the 30 day limit

Pretty Stupid that FCC haven't brought in By Laws for election posters, a deliberate oversight????


Source: Citizens Information

General election posters and signs
The law in Ireland forbids the erection of posters/signs on poles or other structures in public places unless you have the written permission of the owner of the pole or other structure in advance of putting up the posters/signs. There are no rules in place regarding how far in advance of a general election that posters and signs can be erected. However, local authorities have the power to introduce bye-laws if they so choose to set down when promotional material can be erected. Local authorities also have the power to remove these items should they disintegrate or cause a litter nuisance.

Following a general election, a party/candidate must remove posters within a seven day period. After that date, an on-the-spot fine of €150 is issued by your local authority in respect of each offence. Your local authority will remove the poster as the fine is issued. If a party/candidate has been issued with a fine and refuses to pay, they can be prosecuted in the District Court by your local authority to enforce payment. The maximum penalty in the District Court following summary conviction for non-payment of the fine is €3,000.

Bluetonic

LeoB wrote: »

AQlan Farrell probably wont either as I have never seen him around Rush/ Lusk (except for Boards.ie)

Don't you know he's been all around the place for the last year God help us, hasn't even seen anyone from FF in that time. He even managed Balbriggan & Lusk on the morning of the 15th. It must have been pretty intensive :rolleyes:



His regular whining on Twitter re: FF is tiresome at this stage.

I mean why criticise Jim Glennon if he is considering coming back into the fold. It's pointless. Surely to God you would welcome the competition, although at 11/1 to take seat perhaps not.



Get on with your own polices Alan and stop the gutter Twitter having a go at every chance. It's drone.

Why the need to always have a dig? Aren't your policies strong enough? Genuine question.

Jimdagym

Bluetonic wrote: »

Get on with your own polices Alan and stop the gutter Twitter having a go at every chance. It's drone.

Why the need to always have a dig? Aren't your policies strong enough? Genuine question.

I don't think it's fair to ask a candidate to explain himself in a thread that he is not allowed post in.

Bluetonic

Jimdagym wrote: »

I don't think it's fair to ask a candidate to explain himself in a thread that he is not allowed post in.

Fine, I'm available on PM.

LeoB

Bluetonic wrote: »

Don't you know he's been all around the place for the last year God help us, hasn't even seen anyone from FF in that time. He even managed Balbriggan & Lusk on the morning of the 15th. His regular whining on Twitter re: FF is tiresome at this stage.
Get on with your own polices Alan and stop the gutter Twitter having a go at every chance. It's drone.

Why the need to always have a dig? Aren't your policies strong enough? Genuine question.

Now you have hit on an idea there re get on here Alan and the rest for a Q & A session.

Darragh O'Brien has been canvasing in Rush since early November and from what I hear is not getting the hard time you would expect, but in fairness he has been around here since he became a candidate in the last election

Jimdagym wrote: »

I don't think it's fair to ask a candidate to explain himself in a thread that he is not allowed post in.

Paul Gogarty uses him name on Boards where he takes questions.

I will probably be one of the first to get my wrist slapped but I hope we dont have to put up with the same **** slagging. This is way to serious and we need people of the highest calibre who will focus on getting us back on our feet, no matter what party they are from. That means all party politics and if I remember correctly Alan Farrell is totally against that from a thread here about 18 months - 2 years ago.

Beasty

Jimdagym wrote: »

I don't think it's fair to ask a candidate to explain himself in a thread that he is not allowed post in.

There is no rule preventing Alan posting in this thread, but the "no electioneering" rule does make it difficult for him to contribute anything but basic information.

Could I remind all posters of the "no electioneering" rule. This thread is for discussing local issues and the policies of local candidates. It is not for having a dig at some candidates or saying who's going to get your votes

Thanks

Beasty

Corsendonk

Quantum Research pole in todays Sindo, its a small research sample poll so less reliable than Red C.


FG 27%
Lab 29%
FF 8%
SF 8%
Ind 11%
Greens 3%
Dont Know 14%

I be pretty pissed if I was leading FG if that poll is anyway correct. 14% don't know is a substantial floating vote.

meditraitor

Corsendonk wrote: »

Quantum Research pole in todays Sindo, its a small research sample poll so less reliable than Red C.


FG 27%
Lab 29%
FF 8%
SF 8%
Ind 11%
Greens 3%
Dont Know 14%

I be pretty pissed if I was leading FG if that poll is anyway correct. 14% don't know is a substantial floating vote.

For sure, considering they have a 15-18% family vote.......

Corsendonk

meditraitor wrote: »

For sure, considering they have a 15-18% family vote.......

Anymore polls like that for FG and Enda will be looking for the sniper on the roof when he speaks in public.:D

LeoB

14% dont knows is a major factor in the upcoming weeks to be swayed one way or the other. It might not be as accurate as the red c poll but is still something to bite for all the other parties.

It also give me the notion a lot more people are into change. Change in the way we elect people through our party system. I dont know how we are going to get change there as the big party machines wont allow or want this to happen.

Corsendonk

Corsendonk wrote: »

Pretty Stupid that FCC haven't brought in By Laws for election posters, a deliberate oversight????


Source: Citizens Information

Actually reading further on this you might not need by laws. Does anyone have a photo of her election posters around Dublin North?

cathy01

Could be wrong but once an election date has been called you can put up posters.
Cathy

Corsendonk

Not according to this article below.


Journal.ie 22/01/10

A SITTING FINE GAEL TD has been forced to deny being in breach of littering laws, after being pictured on the front of today’s Irish Times with a campaign poster – well in advance of the allowed period for raising them.

Frank Feighan, who topped the poll in his Roscommon-South Leitrim constituency in 2007, was pictured on the front page of today’s paper in Brian Farrell’s photograph, with a campaign poster in hand at an otherwise-abandoned lamppost at Ballyfarnon, Co Roscommon.

As Politics.ie’s David Cochrane noted, however, the erection of party posters before the 30-day period in advance of an election is outlawed under the official guidelines issued by the Department of the Environment and Local Government.

Those guidelines state that under the Litter Pollution Act, election posters can only be displayed for either the 30 days ahead of an election date, or from the date that the polling day order has been issued.

The polling order for the Dáil elections hasn’t yet been issued, and the March 11 date announced by Brian Cowen on Thursday is not binding – but even if it was, polling posters could not be put up until February 9.

As a result, Feighan took to Twitter this morning to assure anyone who cared that he was not breaching any litter laws, but was simply “sizing up” potential places to put a poster.

“I am very aware of litter laws,” Feighan assured his 82 followers – reposting the picture, where it was made more apparent that his small step ladder would not have given him the altitude needed to put the poster in any prominent spot. His poster, it also appears, uses Fine Gael’s older logo.

We can probably expect more candidates to run a little closer to the law in the coming 18 poster-free days.

Beasty

We have deleted a number of posts today made by one of the election candidates, Marcus de Brun, together with the related responses

Some of these posts can be considered "electioneering" which is against the rules of this thread as set out in post #1

Marcus, do not post in this thread again unless you have specific permission from either Hill Billy or me

Thanks

Beasty

Corsendonk

A certain well know bookmaker is quoting these odds today

James Reilly (FG) 1/14
Michael Kennedy (FF) 8/11
Alan Farrell (FG) 11/1
Brendan Ryan (Lab) 1/10
Trevor Sargent (Gr) 5/4
Candidate (SF) 12/1
Clare Daly (Soc) 1/3
Tom Kelleher (Lab) 13/8
Marcus de Brun (Ind) 25/1
Darragh O'Brien (FF) 8/11

cathy01

Corsendonk wrote: »

A certain well know bookmaker is quoting these odds today

James Reilly (FG) 1/14
Michael Kennedy (FF) 8/11
Alan Farrell (FG) 11/1
Brendan Ryan (Lab) 1/10
Trevor Sargent (Gr) 5/4
Candidate (SF) 12/1
Clare Daly (Soc) 1/3
Tom Kelleher (Lab) 13/8
Marcus de Brun (Ind) 25/1
Darragh O'Brien (FF) 8/11

Wish I know how to rad all that betting stuff .I HONESTLY havent a clue.My brothers on his way down, so Ill get him to explain it for me.
Thanks corsendonk, your a great one for the info.Cathy

LeoB

Corsendonk wrote: »

A certain well know bookmaker is quoting these odds today

James Reilly (FG) 1/14
Michael Kennedy (FF) 8/11
Alan Farrell (FG) 11/1
Brendan Ryan (Lab) 1/10
Trevor Sargent (Gr) 5/4
Candidate (SF) 12/1
Clare Daly (Soc) 1/3
Tom Kelleher (Lab) 13/8
Marcus de Brun (Ind) 25/1
Darragh O'Brien (FF) 8/11

I think this is going to a right battle North Dublin. And judging by the performance of Pearse Doherty and Pat Rabbitt this morning there will be great debates over the next few weeks. Unless Lab and F.G get their shows running a little better we could be in for a few shocks.

Trevor is gone from my list anyway to sit with Alan and Clare, 3 gone 7 left to pick from

Jimdagym

Corsendonk wrote: »

A certain well know bookmaker is quoting these odds today

James Reilly (FG) 1/14
Michael Kennedy (FF) 8/11
Alan Farrell (FG) 11/1
Brendan Ryan (Lab) 1/10
Trevor Sargent (Gr) 5/4
Candidate (SF) 12/1
Clare Daly (Soc) 1/3
Tom Kelleher (Lab) 13/8
Marcus de Brun (Ind) 25/1
Darragh O'Brien (FF) 8/11

Tha doesn't make any sense. 5 candidates odds-on and a total of 7 less than 13/8. Terrible book-making.

tbh

Jimdagym wrote: »

Tha doesn't make any sense. 5 candidates odds-on and a total of 7 less than 13/8. Terrible book-making.

must be ivan yates so

RobFowl

FWIW I see James Reilly, Brendan Ryan and Trevor Sargent as well as one of Michael Kennedy/Darragh O Brien filling the 4 seats.
Clare Daly will poll well but will I believe struggle for transfers.
Trevor will suffer for the ill judged coalition with FF but his record will ensure enough transfers to see him through.
Of the FF'ers I think Michael Kennedy's opposition to Cowen leadership will see him take a seat.

Will be an interesting count though. As I recall last time rounf James Reilly took the last seat from Claire Daly on the 10th or 11th count.

For me the biggest local issues are planning/zoning going forward, the state of the roads, water supply and schools.

LeoB

tbh wrote: »

must be ivan yates so

Would we get paid????

RobFowl wrote: »

FWIW I see James Reilly, Brendan Ryan and Trevor Sargent as well as one of Michael Kennedy/Darragh O Brien filling the 4 seats.
Clare Daly will poll well but will I believe struggle for transfers.
Trevor will suffer for the ill judged coalition with FF but his record will ensure enough transfers to see him through.
Of the FF'ers I think Michael Kennedy's opposition to Cowen leadership will see him take a seat.

Will be an interesting count though. As I recall last time rounf James Reilly took the last seat from Claire Daly on the 10th or 11th count.

For me the biggest local issues are planning/zoning going forward, the state of the roads, water supply and schools.

Brendan Ryan I thinkl will get in ok. But maybe Marcus de Brun can put Reilly under a little pressure, wishful thinking on my part.

I take your point on Michael Kennedy but for me Darragh O'Brien is of the new breed of young politican from accross all the parties who have left the old style wheeling and dealing behind and that might just swing it for him. Both O'Brien and Kennedy have worked well in the costituancey. They appear to have split it in 2 sections but credit where its due both were regular at meetings around Rush from what I see, but listening to the news @ 1 and the % of votes required in a 4 seater 20% first preferences needed and I dont see them getting enough unless whoever the elect as the new leader gets a mighty bounce.

I dont even want to consider Trevor Sargent or Clare Daly

SeaSide

LeoB wrote: »

Darragh O'Brien is of the new breed of young politican from accross all the parties who have left the old style wheeling and dealing behind and that might just swing it for him.

Dont think that this was demonstrated by supporting Cowen

LeoB wrote: »

but listening to the news @ 1 and the % of votes required in a 4 seater 20% first preferences needed and I dont see them getting enough unless whoever the elect as the new leader gets a mighty bounce.

That doesn't make sense. a candidate getting 20% plus one vote would get elected on the first count. (eg four candidates at 20% plus one vote would equal 80% plus four votes so noone else could catch them.

But i am open to correction.

From memory when a friend was running they needed to be around 14-15% on the first count otherwise they'd be eliminated before transfers would impact

Perhaps our resident candidate would be able to enlighten us (without electioneering of course)

LeoB

RobFowl wrote: »

For me the biggest local issues are planning/zoning going forward, the state of the roads, water supply and schools.

Issues are something we have overlooked here,

For me the issues would be around health, policing education, social/family affairs
More Gardái with a much lower level of tolerance of street violence
Total reform of our health service, thats a huge debate from medical cards to consultants and private health insurance
Education, smaller class sizes, no grants to private schools, Physical education including food science/awareness to start in Junior infants, breed a healthy nation
Tax and pensions

I am no expert on any of the above but feel we can make small changes to have a more equitable and social society.
Some of our streets are out of bounds such is the anti-social behaviour. have a more visable presence of Gardái

Our health service is top class when you get into the syatem but the wait is crazy and we have to many beds blocked by people who should be in nursing homes as a step on the way home.
I dont agree with health insurance, why pay P.R.S.I and health insurance? I am not for free hospital care I do believe we should all contribute something IF we have the means but because I am wealthy does not give or should not get me treatment ahead of someone else less well off. Grade medical cards, full card, 3/4 - 1/2 depending on circumstances. We hear so often of people who feel they cant afford to go back to work because of what they would lose so do it stages.
We should have a number of Emergency treatment rooms around the city and 50M to cater for the sprains, cuts and bruises and the Saturday and Sunday night brawlers which clog up A&E. People who are very drunk and or high on drugs should not be let in near where we have very ill elderley people or just very ill people in general. To see rows in A&E is disgraceful and friightening for people who are already stressed through illness. I have seen on 2 occasions pretty serious altercations and there stuck in the middle are sick elderly people and nurses trying to do their job.

We here how unhealthy we are so P.E at least 3 or 4 times a week would in years to come pay rich dividends as we would have a healthier population and lessen the cost and need of medical treatments.

Pensions I feel should be means tested and I agree with Michael Lowry bankers bonus's should be taxed at 90% for foreseeable future.

Now form an orderly que and tear me apart:mad:

LeoB

SeaSide wrote: »

Dont think that this was demonstrated by supporting Cowen



That doesn't make sense. a candidate getting 20% plus one vote would get elected on the first count. (eg four candidates at 20% plus one vote would equal 80% plus four votes so noone else could catch them.

But i am open to correction.

From memory when a friend was running they needed to be around 14-15% on the first count otherwise they'd be eliminated before transfers would impact

Perhaps our resident candidate would be able to enlighten us (without electioneering of course)

I wouldnt hold loyalty against him. Dont think Brian Cowan was ever going to lead F.F after this election anyway? They now need to watch carefully who they vote for in this leadership election. Oh and hope they get re elected

Sorry if I was unclear or misleading, I just caught part of the interview and think it may indeed have been dealing with more than 1 F.F candidate in 4 seater and the fact they would neeed a higher percentage of 1st preferance votes as transfers to them will be scarse. Your friend on 14%- 15% was probably getting some transfers?

This scenario is mainly why Noel Aherne is not running so Pat Carey will have a better chance of being re elected, if I understand it correctly

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

Dont think that this was demonstrated by supporting Cowen



That doesn't make sense. a candidate getting 20% plus one vote would get elected on the first count. (eg four candidates at 20% plus one vote would equal 80% plus four votes so noone else could catch them.

But i am open to correction.

From memory when a friend was running they needed to be around 14-15% on the first count otherwise they'd be eliminated before transfers would impact

Perhaps our resident candidate would be able to enlighten us (without electioneering of course)

I think they were talking about the party vote. So two FF candidates in a 4 seater need min of above 20% in first preference to have a chance of pulling the two over the line with transfers. Hinting that FF might be better just to run one candidate.

2007 Dublin North Results

Candidate Vote % Count
Michael Kennedy 10,869 19.89% 3
Trevor Sargent 7,448 13.63% 8
Darragh O'Brien 7,055 12.91% 9
Dr James Reilly 7,667 14.03% 10


Transfer of Votes Analysis 2007
http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2007&cons=96

cathy01

More Gardái with a much lower level of tolerance of street violence
YEP

Education, smaller class sizes, no grants to private schools, Physical education including food science/awareness to start in Junior infants
Yep except for the food part, as its been show to not be healthy , too many concerns about weight etc from an early age.

We should have a number of Emergency treatment rooms around the city and 50M to cater for the sprains, cuts and bruises and the Saturday and Sunday night brawlers which clog up A&E. People who are very drunk and or high on drugs should not be let in near where we have very ill elderley people or just very ill people in general. To see rows in A&E is disgraceful and friightening for people who are already stressed through illness. I have seen on 2 occasions pretty serious altercations and there stuck in the middle are sick elderly people and nurses trying to do their job.
God, yes please:D

Pensions I feel should be means tested
Nope, you pay your way, you deserve your pension.

Michael Lowry bankers bonus's should be taxed at 90% for foreseeable future.

Sort of Yep, Id have it at 99%:)
Thanks Leo,

Corsendonk

LeoB wrote: »

Issues are something we have overlooked here,

For me the issues would be around health, policing education, social/family affairs
More Gardái with a much lower level of tolerance of street violence
Total reform of our health service, thats a huge debate from medical cards to consultants and private health insurance
Education, smaller class sizes, no grants to private schools, Physical education including food science/awareness to start in Junior infants, breed a healthy nation
Tax and pensions

I am no expert on any of the above but feel we can make small changes to have a more equitable and social society.
Some of our streets are out of bounds such is the anti-social behaviour. have a more visable presence of Gardái

Our health service is top class when you get into the syatem but the wait is crazy and we have to many beds blocked by people who should be in nursing homes as a step on the way home.
I dont agree with health insurance, why pay P.R.S.I and health insurance? I am not for free hospital care I do believe we should all contribute something IF we have the means but because I am wealthy does not give or should not get me treatment ahead of someone else less well off. Grade medical cards, full card, 3/4 - 1/2 depending on circumstances. We hear so often of people who feel they cant afford to go back to work because of what they would lose so do it stages.
We should have a number of Emergency treatment rooms around the city and 50M to cater for the sprains, cuts and bruises and the Saturday and Sunday night brawlers which clog up A&E. People who are very drunk and or high on drugs should not be let in near where we have very ill elderley people or just very ill people in general. To see rows in A&E is disgraceful and friightening for people who are already stressed through illness. I have seen on 2 occasions pretty serious altercations and there stuck in the middle are sick elderly people and nurses trying to do their job.

We here how unhealthy we are so P.E at least 3 or 4 times a week would in years to come pay rich dividends as we would have a healthier population and lessen the cost and need of medical treatments.

Pensions I feel should be means tested and I agree with Michael Lowry bankers bonus's should be taxed at 90% for foreseeable future.

Now form an orderly que and tear me apart:mad:

Well considering the budget cuts I don't think some of your concerns will be answered when they couldn't be sorted in the good times. So your looking for some smart thinking or candidates that can challenge the normal answers. Otherwise its robbing Peter to pay Paul politics all over again.