General Election Thread - Mod Note - please read post #1 before posting

LeoB

Corsendonk wrote: »

No canvassers either, I did get my first election mail on Monday from Labour. I assume they got my address from the union rather than a general election register mail out.

If it was the standard piece of mail it comes of register of electors or a register within the local council.

Fine Gael are delivered today and tomorrow and Sinn Fein on Friday. I would not be happy if my union gave my details to any political party. Altough dont all union members make a contribution to the Labour Party indirectly, or directly.

Beasty

We have a new candidate

Looking to split the "Independent Doctor" vote - Mark Harrold

Corsendonk

Is he safe to go out in public? Sounds like he needs an anger management session rather than a run at the Dail.


Dr Mark Herrold Website

I am standing in this election because I am angry. I am angry about the decimation of our country by vested interests. I am furious about the toxic elitism which has led to such an uneven distribution of our resources and created such hardship for so many – the unnecessary deaths in our under-resourced hospitals, the unacceptable level of suicide, the mass emigration of our young people and the deep depression visited on so many families as a result of the USC and other taxes. I want to find a way to ensure that those who have operated just below the threshold of criminality are made to account for their actions, and are never again allowed to occupy positions of influence.

He is certainly aiming for the populist vote, the usually list of banks, reform, health service etc But no policies on how he hopes to deliver. I am not really a fan of independents, Lowry and Healy Rae turned me off. Imagine trying to form a government with 10 Independents, parish pump politics all the way then!

BroomBurner

What time are canvassers calling at?

With all these doctors getting involved, I hope they're practicing what they're preaching. If not, then why would we trust them? If they bemoan over charging (including GP fees), while still charging €50 per visit, then they can shag off.

LeoB

SeaSide wrote: »

I do agree that FF will recover but not by much. Their demographics are older and this in shown in the boards poll. They will also loose much of their support as their voters die horrible deaths on hospital trolleys.

I would prefer to take a chance on FG and Labour policies rather than the proven FFailure of the last 14 years. Is there anything that they could have done to make things worse?

Ita's is supposed to be the new home of the central mental hospital if it ever moves

Supporters of all sides wait on trollys there is nothing new here. Perhaps ifsome of the administrator and consultants done their job a little better the waiiting times would reduce quite a bit. Do you think Mr Reilly will change that? I am not so sure. He is hardly going to upset the people whos contracts he negotiated in the first place!!

Im pretty sore with F.F like a lot of others here but am not so sure about our choice of replacements.

I think there is huge potential for St. Itas not only as a mental care facility but also a community care/ stepdown option for North Dublin.

cathy01

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

Im thinking of Charging Dr James O Reilly €50 to visit my house.Even though there is nothing wrong...just to tell hm when hes here that everything is fine.€50 please.I agree with Broom burner.If they know about hardship why charge 50 quid everytime , two kids ,two sore throats,€100 .I agree with Leo, how can he go back and change his mind.Its no news to anyone that I dislike him. There more I read on this thread,Im getting more angry.
Im looking for a day care centre of a person 63.No, NONE, AT ALL only ...over 65 or under 60.
OT, still never happens, and at the moment Im saving up to get a filling.
I think our health system is a sickness in itself..Oh sorry, I think Im having a rant.Better go and get the kids out.:D

Eoineo

BroomBurner wrote: »

What time are canvassers calling at?

With all these doctors getting involved, I hope they're practicing what they're preaching. If not, then why would we trust them? If they bemoan over charging (including GP fees), while still charging €50 per visit, then they can shag off.

Mark Harrold isn't a GP - he's a Clinical Pyschologist.

Canvassers can call anytime they like, I'm at home all day, everyday.

St Ita's could be potentially the short term care solution to many of NCD hospital problems. Our Lady of Lourdes is geographically closer to many residents but Beaumont is our local hospital.

Jimdagym

Corsendonk wrote: »

No canvassers either, I did get my first election mail on Monday from Labour. I assume they got my address from the union rather than a general election register mail out.

Myself and the wife got that too. I had a 2 minute anger flash at the thought of my info being given out. I calmed down once I remembered the register.

How are parties allowed that information to canvass though? I understand the need to inform people from it when there is a referendum, but there is an obvious distinction between that and a GE? (Heading off-topic, I know, Sorry Mods).

Peckham

Nominations are now closed and the official list of candidates for Dublin North is available.

At a national level there are 20% more candidates running this time compared to 2007. However in Dublin North the number running has dropped from 13 last time, to only 9 this time.

Was hoping for some inspiring candidate to give my no.1 to, but choosing from that list is more a process of elimination than anything else (and I'm not particularly happy voting for the candidate I'm left with in that process of elimination).

SeaSide

From Newstalk

Review of Dublin North constituency by Adrian Kavanagh
February 10th, 2011

Dr. Adrian Kavanagh is based in the Geography Department of the National University of Ireland, Maynooth.

Over the next few days and weeks I am going to briefly review each of the forty-three Dáil constituencies and I will relate these to what the December 2010 Newstalk prediction survey says about the different constituencies and how these tally with the general trends observed in my more recent opinion poll analyses on www.politicalreform.ie – these views will of course be influenced by party’s candidate selections with up-to-date news about these available from the Irish General Election Facts and Figures blog (http://geographyspecialinterestgroup.wordpress.com/)

Dublin North (4-seats): In the Spring Tide 1992 election, Labour probably threw away a seat in Dublin North because they ran just one candidate, Sean Ryan; the knock on effect was that Trevor Sargent’s Dáil career began at this election largely due to vote transfers from the Ryan surplus. With the Gilmore Gale expected to be more impactful than the 1992 Spring Tide Labour should have prospects of two seats here, but it is worth noting that Labour lost their seat in this constituency to Fine Gael in 2007. Labour should regain that seat in 2011 (as otherwise the Gilmore Gale would be akin to a Gilmore Squall) but may find gaining a second seat here as a step too far. That said the Labour ticket is a strong geographically balanced one, as indeed is the Fine Gael ticket. Reilly is joined on the FG ticket by Malahide councillor, Alan Farrell. Reilly took the last seat in Dublin North by 1,200 votes in 2007 and will be hoping his high profile as FG deputy leader and health spokesperson cements his seat here with a higher vote, although a former FG deputy leader, Nora Owen, did lost a FG seat in this constituency in 2002. Labour’s Sean Ryan held a seat in Dublin North between 1989 and 2007, save for a year between 1997 and 1998, but his brother, Sen Brendan Ryan, failed to hold this in 2007 – he and Swords councillor, Tom Kelleher will be looking to reclaim that Labour seat.

Dublin North is a good test case for the different approaches being taken by Fianna Fail to candidate selection for this election

* the “burnt/salted earth” approach (used in Dublin South, Cork North Central) where one of the sitting FF TDs takes a “hit” and steps down, with FF effectively giving up one of their seats and leaving the other remaining FF TD to try to win that, without worrying that the voter will be split - an approach they tried in Laois-Offaly but got, er, burnt trying to do so

* the “high noon” strategy – the sitting TDs both refuse to slip into the sunset and go out guns blazing for one last fight, in mind of some strategists running the risk of both getting shot in the cross fire. Dun Laoghaire good example of this, but Dublin North also another case with two sitting TDs Darragh O’Brien and Michael Kennedy both opting to defend the seats they both won for the first time in 2007.

* the “man marking” strategy: run same number of candidates as Fine Gael and in more or less the same areas – classic examples of this being Longford Westmeath and Carlow-Kilkenny

Both Kennedy and O’Brien are in trouble due to drop in Fianna Fáil support, but also due to losing part of their main support bases/bailwicks in the boundary changes made by the 2007 Constituency Commission – Kennedy will be losing votes in western Swords, O’Brien will be losing votes in the Portmarnock area.

The Socialist Party/United Left Alliance candidate, Claire Daly, is a strong prospect here too, but her chances have been undermined significantly by the moving of part of her Swords base to Dublin West in the 2007 Constituency Commission boundary revision (a move which in turn may help out Joe Higgins’ prospects in Dublin West).

One of the Fianna Fail seats will probably be lost to Labour. Based on national support trends for the Green Party, Trevor Sargent would be expected to lose his seat here, but his local popularity may shield him from a national trend of decline in Green support, possibly leaving him in the same position as in 1992 – as the only Green Party TD. Most of the polls analyses predict 1 FF 1 FG 1 LB and 1 SP/ULA here, while the local survey Newstalk local survey prediction called this as 1 FF 1 FG 1 LB and 1 GP. Ultimately the loss of the western part of Swords Town to Dublin West may mean that Claire Daly misses out here and Trevor Sargent holds his seat against strong challenges from the second-strongest Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail candidates; the local prediction may have called this more effectively.

Labour gain and Fianna Fail loss *– O’Brien FF, Reilly FG, Kelleher LB, Sargent GP

Potential surprise package: If Trevor Sargent does not manage to hold his seat here then Alan Farrell would be well placed to win a second Fine Gael seat in Dublin North.

Beasty

Sticking my head on the block here, but I suspect neither FF candidate will get in. My prediction - Reilly, Farrell, Ryan, then a close thing between Sargent, Daly and Kelleher (with them finishing in that order)

dsmythy

Corsendonk wrote: »

Is he safe to go out in public? Sounds like he needs an anger management session rather than a run at the Dail.


Dr Mark Herrold Website


He is certainly aiming for the populist vote, the usually list of banks, reform, health service etc But no policies on how he hopes to deliver. I am not really a fan of independents, Lowry and Healy Rae turned me off. Imagine trying to form a government with 10 Independents, parish pump politics all the way then!

Well if you believe him he wants to eliminate parish pump politics. Of course saying this means people won't actually vote for him such is Ireland.

Corsendonk

SeaSide wrote: »

Review of Dublin North constituency by Adrian Kavanagh
February 10th, 2011

Dr. Adrian Kavanagh is based in the Geography Department of the National University of Ireland, Maynooth.

Over the next few days and weeks I am going to briefly review each of the forty-three Dáil constituencies and I will relate these to what the December 2010 Newstalk prediction survey says about the different constituencies and how these tally with the general trends observed in my more recent opinion poll analyses on www.politicalreform.ie – these views will of course be influenced by party’s candidate selections with up-to-date news about these available from the Irish General Election Facts and Figures blog (http://geographyspecialinterestgroup.wordpress.com/)

Dublin North (4-seats): In the Spring Tide 1992 election, Labour probably threw away a seat in Dublin North because they ran just one candidate, Sean Ryan; the knock on effect was that Trevor Sargent’s Dáil career began at this election largely due to vote transfers from the Ryan surplus. With the Gilmore Gale expected to be more impactful than the 1992 Spring Tide Labour should have prospects of two seats here, but it is worth noting that Labour lost their seat in this constituency to Fine Gael in 2007. Labour should regain that seat in 2011 (as otherwise the Gilmore Gale would be akin to a Gilmore Squall) but may find gaining a second seat here as a step too far. That said the Labour ticket is a strong geographically balanced one, as indeed is the Fine Gael ticket. Reilly is joined on the FG ticket by Malahide councillor, Alan Farrell. Reilly took the last seat in Dublin North by 1,200 votes in 2007 and will be hoping his high profile as FG deputy leader and health spokesperson cements his seat here with a higher vote, although a former FG deputy leader, Nora Owen, did lost a FG seat in this constituency in 2002. Labour’s Sean Ryan held a seat in Dublin North between 1989 and 2007, save for a year between 1997 and 1998, but his brother, Sen Brendan Ryan, failed to hold this in 2007 – he and Swords councillor, Tom Kelleher will be looking to reclaim that Labour seat.

Dublin North is a good test case for the different approaches being taken by Fianna Fail to candidate selection for this election

* the “burnt/salted earth” approach (used in Dublin South, Cork North Central) where one of the sitting FF TDs takes a “hit” and steps down, with FF effectively giving up one of their seats and leaving the other remaining FF TD to try to win that, without worrying that the voter will be split - an approach they tried in Laois-Offaly but got, er, burnt trying to do so

* the “high noon” strategy – the sitting TDs both refuse to slip into the sunset and go out guns blazing for one last fight, in mind of some strategists running the risk of both getting shot in the cross fire. Dun Laoghaire good example of this, but Dublin North also another case with two sitting TDs Darragh O’Brien and Michael Kennedy both opting to defend the seats they both won for the first time in 2007.

* the “man marking” strategy: run same number of candidates as Fine Gael and in more or less the same areas – classic examples of this being Longford Westmeath and Carlow-Kilkenny

Both Kennedy and O’Brien are in trouble due to drop in Fianna Fáil support, but also due to losing part of their main support bases/bailwicks in the boundary changes made by the 2007 Constituency Commission – Kennedy will be losing votes in western Swords, O’Brien will be losing votes in the Portmarnock area.

The Socialist Party/United Left Alliance candidate, Claire Daly, is a strong prospect here too, but her chances have been undermined significantly by the moving of part of her Swords base to Dublin West in the 2007 Constituency Commission boundary revision (a move which in turn may help out Joe Higgins’ prospects in Dublin West).

One of the Fianna Fail seats will probably be lost to Labour. Based on national support trends for the Green Party, Trevor Sargent would be expected to lose his seat here, but his local popularity may shield him from a national trend of decline in Green support, possibly leaving him in the same position as in 1992 – as the only Green Party TD. Most of the polls analyses predict 1 FF 1 FG 1 LB and 1 SP/ULA here, while the local survey Newstalk local survey prediction called this as 1 FF 1 FG 1 LB and 1 GP. Ultimately the loss of the western part of Swords Town to Dublin West may mean that Claire Daly misses out here and Trevor Sargent holds his seat against strong challenges from the second-strongest Labour, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail candidates; the local prediction may have called this more effectively.

Labour gain and Fianna Fail loss *– O’Brien FF, Reilly FG, Kelleher LB, Sargent GP

Potential surprise package: If Trevor Sargent does not manage to hold his seat here then Alan Farrell would be well placed to win a second Fine Gael seat in Dublin North.

Is that a mistake that he has predicted Kelleher to claim the Labour seat before Ryan? He doesn't really mention it in the above article.

sNarah

Latest results for NCD on Boards GE.

I must admit I am suprised that Clare Daly is doing so well. My bet would be on James Reilly to win in, he does *seem* competent and trustworthy imho.





Candidate List

#


Candidate Party 1st Prefs Vote Share 1
DALY, Clare

Profile - Website
Socialist Party 72 19.9% 2
REILLY, James

Profile - Website - -
Fine Gael 61 16.9% 3
RYAN, Brendan

Profile - Website
Labour 51 14.1% 4
FARRELL, Alan

Profile - Website - -
Fine Gael 45 12.5% 5
SARGENT, Trevor

Profile - Website - -
Green Party 43 11.9%

dan_d

Canvassers around Rush yesterday, for Michael Kennedy, about 4.30pm

The problem I have with canvassers is that there's no point getting annoyed with them.I want to see the politician themselves.

And the other problem I have is......take Kennedy.Now he's doing his best to get elected, but every conversation is about what he'll do for North County Dublin, and how hard he works for the people out here.Well, that's fine...but what if I'm not interested in the state of the roads, and footpaths, or the street lights in the local town, but the bigger issues, around the country? What if I want to know about how he's going to fix the health service, what is going to be done for the unemployed, what they're going to do about the public transport system, how are they going to make the banks function properly (and under regulation) again??

He can't do any of those things. His party are not going to get in...so...what??What am I supposed to say to someone like him???

LeoB

dan_d wrote: »

Canvassers around Rush yesterday, for Michael Kennedy, about 4.30pm

The problem I have with canvassers is that there's no point getting annoyed with them.I want to see the politician themselves.

And the other problem I have is......take Kennedy.Now he's doing his best to get elected, but every conversation is about what he'll do for North County Dublin, and how hard he works for the people out here.Well, that's fine...but what if I'm not interested in the state of the roads, and footpaths, or the street lights in the local town, but the bigger issues, around the country? What if I want to know about how he's going to fix the health service, what is going to be done for the unemployed, what they're going to do about the public transport system, how are they going to make the banks function properly (and under regulation) again??

He can't do any of those things. His party are not going to get in...so...what??What am I supposed to say to someone like him???

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!! Good post. I explained to F.G canvaser the other day why I wouldnt vote for James Reilly even though I was probably wasting my time. He is a fairly good speaker but comes accross to me rightly or wrongly as a bit of a bully and bluffer.

The more I listen to various reports the more I am worried about our Taoiseach elect and his party. Everything is negative and knocking what has gone on. Listening to Simon Covney this morning he sounds just the same negative politican we have come to know this past few years, the Labour contributor was no better while Michael Martin tried to distance himself somewhat from some decisions of the past year or two. We have to look forward.

Interesting point made was that Mary Harney had a few obsticles put in her way by senior figures in F.F and Mr. Martin was able to credit her with some positive stuff that has come about from her tenure in Health.

I dont believe F.G will bring bankers to task, (lock any of them up)
I dont think they will provide universal free private health care, Can we afford it? we will be hammered in TAX.
I dont think they will be able to do much about unemployment figures
They wont bring the waste and fraud in social welfare under control but if they did they would have about €4 billion saved and at least soften what budgets we have to face over the next few years.

To come back to a local proposal, Would anyone here be in favour of a windfarm off the east coast? Well off the back of Lambay, Rockabill or islands of Skerries.

LeoB

cathy01 wrote: »

why charge 50 quid everytime , two kids ,two sore throats,€100 .

Why pay it. If Ibrought my 2 kids I would not be handing over €115 or €120. Say no. its ONE visit

cathy01 wrote: »

.OT, still never happens, and at the moment Im saving up to get a filling.

I have been chasing various therapies for someone close to me and the bottom line is Cathy you have to shout and shout very loud.

I am coming at this from a different angle (fostering) but we as carers have had to question a lot of things the H.S.E wanted / proposed that we didnt agree with and finally now after 3 years they listen to us because we dont go away. They dont like being challenged and questioned nor do they like being questioned. So get on the phone every day, hassle every politican, do lots of research on the net dont rely on what a G.P or H.S.E tell you.

Corsendonk

LeoB wrote: »

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!! Good post. I explained to F.G canvaser the other day why I wouldnt vote for James Reilly even though I was probably wasting my time. He is a fairly good speaker but comes accross to me rightly or wrongly as a bit of a bully and bluffer.

The more I listen to various reports the more I am worried about our Taoiseach elect and his party. Everything is negative and knocking what has gone on. Listening to Simon Covney this morning he sounds just the same negative politican we have come to know this past few years, the Labour contributor was no better while Michael Martin tried to distance himself somewhat from some decisions of the past year or two. We have to look forward.

Interesting point made was that Mary Harney had a few obsticles put in her way by senior figures in F.F and Mr. Martin was able to credit her with some positive stuff that has come about from her tenure in Health.

I dont believe F.G will bring bankers to task, (lock any of them up)
I dont think they will provide universal free private health care, Can we afford it? we will be hammered in TAX.
I dont think they will be able to do much about unemployment figures
They wont bring the waste and fraud in social welfare under control but if they did they would have about €4 billion saved and at least soften what budgets we have to face over the next few years.

To come back to a local proposal, Would anyone here be in favour of a windfarm off the east coast? Well off the back of Lambay, Rockabill or islands of Skerries.

You want a third one?

Spook_ie

With the nominations now closed does anyone have a definitive list of candidates that are standing? There always seems to be independants that you never get to know until you look at the ballot slip

LeoB

Corsendonk wrote: »

You want a third one?

Eh!! Please.

Beasty

Spook_ie wrote: »

With the nominations now closed does anyone have a definitive list of candidates that are standing? There always seems to be independants that you never get to know until you look at the ballot slip

Here;)

Peckham

Beasty wrote: »

Here;)

Minus DeBrun - he's not on the official list of candidates declared by the Returning Officer.

Seems a bit odd given the number of posters he has up around the place. Wonder if there was an admin error or if he changed his mind.

Corsendonk

Peckham wrote: »

Minus DeBrun - he's not on the official list of candidates declared by the Returning Officer.

Seems a bit odd given the number of posters he has up around the place. Wonder if there was an admin error or if he changed his mind.

From his Twatter ohh sorry I mean Twitter.

Corruption at every turn. Nomination not accepted by county Sheriff. De Brun denied opportunity to stand.
about 5 hours ago via web

A bit funny he only knew 5 hours ago? Tuesday was the deadline?

tbh

From his website:

o the Voters of Dublin North.

I cannot stand as a candidate for Dublin North, because I was not permitted to put my name on the candidate list. I received my invitation to register as a candidate on the afternoon of Fri the 4th of Jan (letter dated feb 1st). This letter requested that I call the County Sheriff to make an appointment to join the register, it included no date or closing time for nominations.

When I called the Sherrif's office on Monday I could not get through and the answer machine instructed not to leave a message. When I reached his office on wed at 12:06 I was informed that nominations were closed. When I informed the Sheriff that his correspondence contains no reference to the deadline for nominations he told me this information is available on his website. When I informed the Sheriff that there is no website mentioned in his correspondence he made no response.

To be nominated as a candidate for the election one must secure the nominations of thirty reguistered voters, one must ensure that these voters are on the register and one must have each of these nominations notarised by either a notary or member of the Gardai.

When I informed the Sheriff that it would not have been reasonably possible to secure the signatures of thirty voters, to confirm these voters are registered and have those nominations notarised by a member of the Guards or Notary... within 2 working days, he informed me that I could avoid this by paying his office a 500 fee, and simply nominate myself. When I asked the sheriff how many candidates had managed to acquire the 30 notarised signatures within 2 working days, he made no reply.

As a consequence of this I have not been permitted to register my candidacy and I take this to be another example of the corruption and incompetence that is endemic to our political establishment. I have little doubt that few if any candidates had an appropriate amount of time to submit thirty notarised signatures within the time allowed even if they had been properly informed of the closing date or time for nominations. I have little doubt that the late discharge of applications by the Sheriff was designed to facilitate the collections of deposit/fees by his office.

I have been informed that the decision of the County Sherrif is final and there is no opportunity for appeal.

Sincerely

Marcus de Brun

tbh

so if I read that correctly, he found out he had to contact the sheriff on the 4th of Jan, but didn't actually contact him until six minutes after the deadline had passed?

Corsendonk

tbh wrote: »

so if I read that correctly, he found out he had to contact the sheriff on the 4th of Jan, but didn't actually contact him until six minutes after the deadline had passed?

Yeap sounds like it, maybe the HSE is a mess because the doctors can't get their paperwork right. Except the bill, they never do undercharge.

Look on the brightside HB can stop following him on Twitter now!:D

Unshelved

Maybe it's just as well if he's that disorganised. Surely leaving it to the last minute as he did reeks of amateurism? Given that he's probably spent a lot of money already on posters and so on - why didn't he just cough up the €500? Cold feet?

Corsendonk

Surely if your going to run you check the paperwork your going to need for nomination before printing your posters etc.

I just googled Dublin County Returning Officer and the site popped up no bother. It has a tab for candidates and the below page.

Prospective candidates may obtain nomination papers from our office during normal business hours or may download nomination papers here:

Nomination Paper

Páipéar Ainmniúcháin

A person may nominate himself/herself as a candidate or may, with his/her consent, be nominated by a proposer who is registered as a Dáil elector in the constituency.

A nomination paper from a candidate of a registered political party must have a certificate of political affiliation attached.

If no certificate is attached, the candidate must, before the latest time for receiving nominations, either-

secure 30 assents to the nomination by way of statutory declarations by Dáil electors registered in the constituency (forms available from this office or the registration authority), or
make a deposit of €500 (deposit may also be made on the candidate’s behalf).
Details of these requirements are set out in the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2007.

The latest time for receiving nominations is 12 noon on the 9th day of February, 2011.

A nominated candidate may withdraw his/her nomination at any time up to 12 noon on the 10th day of February, 2011.

Candidates should contact this office by telephone at 01-8306785 to arrange an appointment to lodge their application.

Last Updated on Thursday, 10 February 2011 19:15

RobFowl

Unshelved wrote: »

Maybe it's just as well if he's that disorganised. Surely leaving it to the last minute as he did reeks of amateurism? Given that he's probably spent a lot of money already on posters and so on - why didn't he just cough up the €500? Cold feet?

It's a pity someone who wanted to stand can't but reading his note it's hard to blame anyone but the candidate himself.
At least he can't lose his deposit now

tbh

RobFowl wrote: »

It reading his note it's hard to blame anyone but the candidate himself.

read his prison thread - it's a blessing really