Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

glossy

Su Campu wrote: »

It's snowing in Scotland and northwest England this evening, down to 23m amsl in Boulmer.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=000E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2010&mes=11&day=24hora=18&vsg=Sg

a friend told me it snowed a bit in Newcastle (they live there) this afternoon,

maquiladora

Already down to 0 at Ballyhaise. Just 1 at Casement.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

roryc1

None of you Pro,s going to give us your take on ecm 12z

ninebeanrows

roryc1 wrote: »

None of you Pro,s going to give us your take on ecm 12z

Smashing output, lots of snow potential.

Almost time to start watching the radar and check your temps!

Saganist

Bit of a ramp there from RTE ?
:D

maquiladora

Can't complain about that forecast. Cold & scattered wintry showers at the weekend. I'll take that.

JanuarySnowstor

More of the same from Jean.
It appears it will take snow falling beofre they will get warnings out.
To me the charts scream dangerous driving this wkd, listening to Jean you would think a Northerly toppler was immiinent
Not good enough or factual enough, coastal showers blah blah

darkman2

roryc1 wrote: »

None of you Pro,s going to give us your take on ecm 12z

meh, im getting bored of seeing such cold and snowy charts.:p

oterra

The met on rte gave quite subdued forecast. Although snow showers tomorrow night were mentioned but nothing much to get the blood flowing. Anyone else get that impression from met eireann?

maquiladora

roryc1 wrote: »

None of you Pro,s going to give us your take on ecm 12z

It's great out to 192. Beyond that, not so good but thats so far in FI it doesnt matter anyway.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Not good enough or factual enough, coastal showers blah blah

She did mention the rain might turn to snow in the east tomorrow night. Apart from that all the other precip on the ECM is mainly coastal out as far as Monday.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

Can't complain about that forecast. Cold & scattered wintry showers at the weekend. I'll take that.

Would be surprised if we see any snow down our way Maq but the charts are so positive and the cold will be in place so why not i guess. I'm just thinking back to last Winter when places like Wexford were getting streamers from the Irish Sea but only on a few occasions they made it far enough to give us anything here. Its fun watching the Board all the same but i'm very causious and not getting too excited.;)

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Would be surprised if we see any snow down our way Maq but the charts are so positive and the cold will be in place so why not i guess. I'm just thinking back to last Winter when places like Wexford were getting streamers from the Irish Sea but only on a few occasions they made it far enough to give us anything here. Its fun watching the Board all the same but i'm very causious and not getting too excited.;)

Yeah we are in a bad position for those showers due to terrain. I remember walking home right in the middle of the tail end of the only one we really got last year, only lasted about 5 minutes but it was outstanding.

Out best chance is from frontal snow pushing in from the southeast with the winds coming in over land rather than the sea.

ninebeanrows

I have just looked back at charts from last year and my confidence is increased.

850hpa temps were not anything exceptional last year, ranging from -4/5c to -9c at times.

This splash of cold looks quite similar if not colder.

redsteveireland

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah we are in a bad position for those showers due to terrain. I remember walking home right in the middle of the tail end of the only one we really got last year, only lasted about 5 minutes but it was outstanding.

Out best chance is from frontal snow pushing in from the southeast with the winds coming in over land rather than the sea.

At least there is some potential there for the East. Spare a thought for us poor snow lovers on the West this weekend. Raining around Galway at the moment.:(

Saganist

Anyone know if those showers in the Irish sea hit the Irish coast what would they fall as ?

M2 buoy DP is -0.4c

TheMilkyPirate

lol at the amount of rain at johnstown castle :pac:

http://www.irelandsweather.com/

These showers will become confined to coastal areas of the northwest and north early tonight but later parts of the east coast may also get a few wintry showers. Most other places will become dry, clear and cold with some patchy fog locally. Widespread sharp to severe frost with lowest temperatures of -3 to +1 degrees.

Woo!

Trogdor

Some lovely cumulus bubbling away and being backlit by the moon just a small bit off the coast here:)

Saganist wrote: »

Anyone know if those showers in the Irish sea hit the Irish coast what would they fall as ?

M2 buoy DP is -0.4c

It's marginal right on the coast, here the temp is 3.0C anyway with a dewpoint of 1.4C so a bit high for definate snow right at on the coast...although i expect those values to fall a bit more as the night goes on (provided surface winds don't turn too far easterly and begin coming in off the sea). A bit further inland should increase chances (provided any actually make landfall).

Kippure

Things look in good shape from tomorrow night. It,ll be soon lamp post watching time...

irish1967

Just say this in after hours and thought that it would make ye smile while we wait fir the White stuff.

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash2/hs494.ash2/76713_483620669112_512884112_5381119_753819_n.jpg

ninebeanrows

irish1967 wrote: »

Just say this in after hours and thought that it would make ye smile while we wait fir the White stuff.

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash2/hs494.ash2/76713_483620669112_512884112_5381119_753819_n.jpg

Pure ignorance though.

JanuarySnowstor

Weathercheck wrote: »

I have just looked back at charts from last year and my confidence is increased.

850hpa temps were not anything exceptional last year, ranging from -4/5c to -9c at times.

This splash of cold looks quite similar if not colder.

Matty if I remember correctly 850's were close to 0 around Christmas last year yet the cold was severe!
Hopefully this wkd will be awesome

trogdor

trogdor wrote: »

Some lovely cumulus bubbling away and being backlit by the moon just a small bit off the coast here:)



It's marginal right on the coast, here the temp is 3.0C anyway with a dewpoint of 1.4C so a bit high for definate snow right at on the coast...although i expect those values to fall a bit more as the night goes on (provided surface winds don't turn too far easterly and begin coming in off the sea). A bit further inland should increase chances (provided any actually make landfall).

Rob Mcelwee [ yay \o/] is the current forecaster on bbc news 24 and he mentioned the showers forming off dublin tonight will all be rain and are heading due south to hit pembrokeshire as rain but maybe snow on the moors down in Cornwall/Devon area.
The graphics which are basically the current Nae showed them staying off shore.
Tomorrow nights event could be rain or snow ,though he had the graphics over ireland as rain.
After that ,his words were snow,snow snow...
He was excited as ever.

JonnyM

Kippure wrote: »

Things look in good shape from tomorrow night. It,ll be soon lamp post watching time...

hahha forgot all bout that, perfect lampost right outside my house :P

Queen-Mise

In the near future: are we likely to get snow or is it wishful thinking ??

Ahorseofaman

dingle peninsula is getting a bit of precip,anyone care to report?

ninebeanrows

Queen-Mise wrote: »

In the near future: are we likely to get snow or is it wishful thinking ??

I'm sorry but that is such a pejorative term, and i am sorry but i don't accept it. However moving forward we must be responsible in forecasting and take measures that are necessary in the National Interest.

TheMilkyPirate

Queen-Mise wrote: »

In the near future: are we likely to get snow or is it wishful thinking ??

If you read the thread you'd have your answer. and it also depends on where your referring to it snowing. The east coast at low levels? Maybe. High levels? More than likely. The west coast and south? Probably not.

Trogdor

Deleted User wrote: »

Rob Mcelwee [ yay \o/] is the current forecaster on bbc news 24 and he mentioned the showers forming off dublin tonight will all be rain and are heading due south to hit pembrokeshire as rain but maybe snow on the moors down in Cornwall/Devon area.
The graphics which are basically the current Nae showed them staying off shore.
Tomorrow nights event could be rain or snow ,though he had the graphics over ireland as rain.
After that ,his words were snow,snow snow...
He was excited as ever.

Ah i see, I'm still hopeful of seeing a few flakes if any showers make it onshore despite this though:p 2.5C/0.2C here and the showers are still going strong down the sea. I saw a flash of lightning about 20 minutes ago off around greystones-ish followed by a rumble while out taking pictures, so there's some pretty hefty cells around!
Here's a pic of the convection:
A few more bigger pictures here

carlmwan

here in meath the temp is 0c and dew point is -2 would Precipitation fall as snow?

Figuramatyi

trogdor wrote: »

Ah i see, I'm still hopeful of seeing a few flakes if any showers make it onshore despite this though:p 2.5C/0.2C here and the showers are still going strong down the sea. I saw a flash of lightning about 20 minutes ago off around greystones-ish followed by a rumble while out taking pictures, so there's some pretty hefty cells around!
Here's a pic of the convection:
A few more bigger pictures here

Stunning pictures!!

Pangea

Unreal picture, I thought it was fake for a second.


Looks like theres snow in many places in UK , see link and peoples status.
http://youropenbook.org/?q=snow&gender=any

maquiladora

carlmwan wrote: »

here in meath the temp is 0c and dew point is -2 would Precipitation fall as snow?

Should be possible, though there is not much precip around.

Figuramatyi

England in heavy snow again on the 18z, just like it was on the 12z:

FlawedGenius

Whats the cances of getting more snow in Dublin low levels to last year?? Come Monday will it be mayhem?:D

Queen-Mise

Weathercheck wrote: »

I'm sorry but that is such a pejorative term, and i am sorry but i don't accept it. However moving forward we must be responsible in forecasting and take measures that are necessary in the National Interest.

You do realise that there is a drinking game called 'National Interest' - every time it is said, you have to drink a short. You now have to take responsibility for my descent into alcoholism... That last one, was the one, that did the damage :o:o:o

baraca wrote: »

If you read the thread you'd have your answer. and it also depends on where your referring to it snowing. The east coast at low levels? Maybe. High levels? More than likely. The west coast and south? Probably not.

I have been reading these threads for the past week or so... I am a little surprised and excited - that snow is a possibility this early. Strange times,

danni2

Seen the rte forecast at half nine, I'm quite satisfied on what she said, cold weather will last all next week and she mentioned the possability of snow for a time tomorrow evening as the front moves south and on the chart it showed snow for the midlands and east, sure hope she's right:)

maquiladora

Figuramatyi wrote: »

England in heavy snow again on the 18z, just like it was on the 12z:

Though it does turn to heavy rain in the south as the milder air arrives



Very strong winds with that too. I wonder if the GFS is overdoing that low. Long way off anyway...

delw

Brenireland wrote: »

Lads even if we don't get our snow,I reckon we maybe in for a nuclear winter if N&S Korea keep at each other!

I would like to make a prediction regarding the upcoming winter,I expect that come the 10th of December the wind direction will switch to an Westerly/South Westerly wind meaning this winter will both be Mild,above the average temp & Plenty of wet rain :cool:

is your prediction just a guess or is it based on anything?

nacho libre

Brenireland wrote: »

Lads even if we don't get our snow,I reckon we maybe in for a nuclear winter if N&S Korea keep at each other!

:

let's hope they go to war so. then we will see who really are the cold lovers:pac:

but seriously according to the experts over on netweather, the Teleconnections appear to support continued strong heights to our NW, which would back up what WolfeIRE was saying last night about no return to raging zonality any time soon.

Harps

Just seen a report on BBC News, seems to be snowing heavily in Northern England, 5cm predicted overnight in Newcastle and it looked quite deep already from the report

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Though it does turn to heavy rain in the south as the milder air arrives



Very strong winds with that too. I wonder if the GFS is overdoing that low. Long way off anyway...

it would be very unsual alright for a low of that intensity to develop with a blocking high to the north east of it.

maquiladora

Just for fun....sensational battleground snowfest/washout deep in FI at 264 hours:

lord lucan

Had a couple of flashes of lightning a while ago,amazing to see on a completely clear night.

As an aside,thanks for the in depth coverage guys. I ride a motorbike to work and some of my shifts start at 04.00 & 06.00 in the morning so any heads-up i can get on potential ice or snow so i can make alternative arrangements is very welcome. I love snow and extreme weather but i have to be a bit selfish and be concerned about getting to work and earning a living which i why i tend to duck out of snow-loving threads for fear of upsetting snow lovers!;)

TheMilkyPirate

Quick question whens the next gfs rolling out?

maquiladora

baraca wrote: »

Quick question whens the next gfs rolling out?

It just finished.

0Z starts around 3:30am.

Figuramatyi

maquiladora wrote: »

Just for fun....sensational battleground snowfest/washout deep in FI at 264 hours:

Lol even better at 276
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-276.png?18

JanuarySnowstor

18z = awesome.
Ireland will close down early next week if these charts come off
Truly exceptional, with no end in sight to the freezing conditions.

mickger844posts

Harps wrote: »

Just seen a report on BBC News, seems to be snowing heavily in Northern England, 5cm predicted overnight in Newcastle and it looked quite deep already from the report

Check it out here, definitely snowing there, lucky gits

http://www.tynebridgewebcam.com/south.htm

maquiladora

Figuramatyi wrote: »

Lol even better at 276

Bring it on.

Just a shame there is a 99% chance it wont happen. :rolleyes: