National Recovery Plan

Économiste Monétaire

The four-year budgetary plan has been released, you can find the documents here:

http://www.budget.gov.ie/RecoveryPlan.aspx

Économiste Monétaire

Consolidation and debt summary:
| 2011| 2012| 2013| 2014|
General Government Deficit (% of GDP)| 9% | 7%| 5.5%| 2.8%|
Total Consolidation| €6bn | €3.6bn| €3.1bn| €3.1bn|
--Expenditure| €3.9bn | €2.1bn| €2bn| €2bn|
----Current| €2.1bn | €1.7bn| €1.6bn| €1.6bn|
----Capital| €1.8bn | €0.4bn| €0.4bn| €0.4bn|
--Taxation| €1.4bn | €1.5bn| €1.1bn| €1.1bn|
--Other| €0.7bn||||
|||||
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)| 100%|101%|102%|100%|

force eleven

Have they cut TD's pay? Touched their inflated pensions? Thats the very least I would expect.

Économiste Monétaire

Economic outlook (most in % annual change):
|2011| 2012| 2013| 2014
GDP real| 1¾| 3¼| 3| 2¾
GDP level (€m)| 161,200| 168,100 |175,400 |183,500
GNP real| 1| 2½ |2½ |2½
GNP level (€m)| 127,900 |132,500 |137,600 |143,400
components of real GDP||||
- consumption| 0 |1 |1½ |1¾
- government| -3| -2| -2¼| -2
- investment| -6 |5¼ |5 |5¼
||||
- exports |5 |5| 4½ |4
- imports |2¾ |3 |3¼ |3
- BOP current account (% GNP)| ¼ |1½ |2½ |3½
||||
HICP |¾ |1 |1¾ |1¾
GDP deflator| ¾ |1 |1¼ |1½
||||
Employment| -¼ |1¼ |1½ |1¾
Unemployment (%)| 13¼ |12 |11 |9¾

Tweeter

force eleven wrote: »

Have they cut TD's pay? Touched their inflated pensions? Thats the very least I would expect.

Are you mad??
They will continue to live their 5 star lifestyles (as they have done), while you and me take all the hit.
These ars*holes are so far detached from what's happening on the ground to families around the country, it's actually beyond belief.

Économiste Monétaire

Taxation measures:
|2011| 2012| 2013| 2014|Total
Income Tax (€m) | 1,245 |260 |210| 160 |1,875
Pensions (€m)| 260 |225 |225 |155 |865
Tax Expenditures (€m) |405 |100 |100 |60 |665
Site Value Tax (€m)| - |180 |175 |175 |530
Carbon Tax (€m)| - |220| - |80 |300
Capital Tax (€m)| - |145 |- |- |145
Value Added Tax (€m)| | | 310 |260 |570
Other Measures (€m)| 110 |- |- |- |110
TOTAL (€m)|2,020 |1,130 |1,020 |890 |5,060

Économiste Monétaire

Noodler will be happy that this table has been released . Distribution of income tax earners:

|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008|2009|2010
Total |2,013,701 |2,174,999 |2,370,732 |2,489,108 |2,459,240 |2,287,202 |2,214,300
Higher rate|23% |21% |18% |16% |16% |14% |13%
Standard rate| 43% |43% |43% |42% |42% |42% |42%
Exempt |34% |36% |39% |42% |42% |44% |45%

Économiste Monétaire

There's also an interesting table in the appendix: Debt-Deficit Dynamics - Sensitivity Analysis

|2011| 2012 |2013 |2014
||||
Pessimistic Scenario||||
Nominal GDP growth (%) |1.5 |3.2 |3.3 |3.6
Average interest rate (%) |4.4 |4.9 |5.4 |5.7
Primary budget balance (% of GDP) |-6.3 |-4.0 |-2.4 |0.3
General government debt (end-year, % of GDP) |102 |106 |110 |113
General government debt (end-year, % of GDP)** |104 |111 |116 |119
||||
Optimistic Scenario||||
Nominal GDP growth (%) |3.5 |5.2 |5.3 |5.6
Average interest rate (%) |2.4 |2.9 |3.4 |3.7
Primary budget balance (% of GDP) |-5.5 |-2.4 |0.0 |3.5
General government debt (end-year, % of GDP) |97 |96 |94 |89
General government debt (end-year, % of GDP)** |100 |101 |100 |95

Économiste Monétaire

Public Service numbers:
|2000 |2008 |2010 |2011 |2012 |2013 |2014
Opening numbers ceilings |247,250 |319,450 |307,900 |308,000 |307,400 |308,500 |309,350
Numbers ceilings ||||301,000 |298,800 |296,500 |294,700
of which:|||||||
Civil Service |34,050 |39,300 |37,350 |36,200 |35,800 |35,250 |34,600
Health Sector |81,500 |111,050 |106,850 |105,300 |103,800 |102,300 |100,800
Education |67,850 |94,650 |93,700 |93,300 |94,100 |95,050 |95,750
Justice |12,250 |15,700 |14,800 |13,750 |13,600 |13,400 |13,250
of which Gardaí: ||14,400 |14,500 |13,500 |13,350 |13,150 |13,000
Defence |12,100 |11,250 |10,800 |10,500 |10,400 |10,300 |10,300
Local Authorities |29,100 |35,000 |32,200 |30,750 |30,400 |30,000 |30,000
NCSAs** |10,400 |12,500 |12,200 |11,200 |10,700 |10,200 |10,000
Annual Ceilings Reduction||| |7,000 |8,600 |12,000 |14,650
Cumulative Numbers Reduction since 2008||| |18,450 |20,650 |22,950| 24,750
** Non-Commercial State Agencies.

noodler

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

Noodler will be happy that this table has been released . Distribution of income tax earners:

|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008|2009|2010
Total |2,013,701 |2,174,999 |2,370,732 |2,489,108 |2,459,240 |2,287,202 |2,214,300
Higher rate|23% |21% |18% |16% |16% |14% |13%
Standard rate| 43% |43% |43% |42% |42% |42% |42%
Exempt |34% |36% |39% |42% |42% |44% |45%

Delighted.

Still very disappointed that there is virtually nothing on the Universal Social Charge though. Is it going to increase revenue or not?

The property tax (or Site Value Tax!) is also confusing. It appears to be interim and on a flat basis before being replaced by a valuation version. However, the document also says one or two things which lead you to believe the interim charge will be in addition to the flat rate.

cavedave

Nominal GDP growth (%) 2011 1.5
when taking 6 billion out of the economy? The fiscal multiplier is about .5 here right?

So is a 1.5% growth rate believable?

cavedave

Dr Bacon was on newstalk this morning predicting growth in GDP of around 0% for 2011

Standard & Poor's now expects close to zero nominal GDP growth for 2011 and 2012. We do not envisage GDP exceeding 2% a year in real terms before 2013.

Others (probably unreliably) give figures of -6.5%.

What non government body is predicting 1.5% growth. Do you think that level of growth is credible. Why are we looking at GDP and not GNP?

You will know that reality has finally set in when all the relevant numbers are presented relative to G.N.P., not G.D.P.

What does it mean if these growth figures are off for austerity in next years budget?

noodler

cavedave wrote: »

What non government body is predicting 1.5% growth. Do you think that level of growth is credible. Why are we looking at GDP and not GNP?

In the fouyr year plan the Gov compared its foecasts for 2011 with the recent forcasts (October most of them) and the Gov is actually as pessimistic (or realistic as any).

1.75% IN 2011 TO 3.25% IN 2012 IS THE LEAP of faith alright.

Anonymous1987

Debt interest (as a % of tax revenue),
2011 15%
2012 17%
2013 19%
2014 20%

:eek: 20c out every €1 of tax raised just to pay interest. Also note that these figures are post consolidation and exclude further capitalisations of the banks.

Since we are given the debt interest amount for 2009 (€2.5bn) and 2014 (8.4bn) as well as the General Government Gross Debt (given as a % of GDP, hence multiply this by the GDP level figures to get GGGD) I should be able to calculate the implied debt interest rate but the figures I get are 1.55% for 2009 and 4.58% for 2010, am I missing something?

cavedave

an expansion of the economy – forecast at 1.5 per cent, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). In October, the ESRI believed GDP would grow by a more robust 2.25 per cent.

The Government has based its budget estimates on a GDP expansion of 1.75 per cent.

from the Irish times and the ESRI puts 2012 GDP growth at 2.5%

cavedave

Economic growth forecast halved

The new 2011 projections for gross domestic product (GDP) have been cut by more than half. In December, the Department of Finance believed GDP would increase by 1.8 per cent this year. Now it foresees an expansion of only 0.8 per cent....

In December the public debt was expected to peak at 103 per cent of GDP. The new projection is for a high point of 118 per cent to be reached in 2013.

Not anything too surprising. I do think this thread is interesting to see how growth and debt predictions evolve over time though