Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

Figuramatyi

Lol GME is on speed

Lol at Gerry murphy on radio one just now...
Rain in the afternoons except on high ground over the weekend despite max temps of just 2c snow mainly at night time
no warnings and no mention of accumulations at all:rolleyes:

what is he like :rolleyes:

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

what is he like :rolleyes:

Anti-Ramper!

ME outlook this morning is good for the entire week:

Saturday night will be extremely cold with a widespread severe frost and icy stretches on roads. Most places will be dry. However wintry showers of sleet and snow will affect coastal counties of Leinster, Ulster and north Connacht. The showers in these areas will continue on Sunday. They'll fall mainly as rain or sleet along the coast, but will fall as snow further inland. Most of the country will be dry and bright with sunny spells. Day time temperatures will only reach between 0 and 2 degrees and there'll be another severe frost on Sunday night. From Monday through to Friday it will continue to be extremely cold mainly moderate northeasterly winds. Daytime temperatures will range from 0 to 2 degrees and with values dropping as low as -5 or -6 at night giving severe frosts. Most of the country will be dry, but wintry showers of sleet and snow will continue to affect coastal counties of Leinster, Ulster and north Connacht. The showers in Leinster will push further inland at times and will fall as snow.

Cassidy28

Very dissapointing alright,looks like we wont get much snow,if any at all:(

roryc1

They will probably do the usual
8am forecast, rain showers today, cold, top temps 2-6

9 pm update today we had heavy showers of snow 2-10 cm in places, causing dangerous driving conditions etc etc

Su Campu

I hate to say I told you so but the temperature didn't get below zero last night or this morning, despite the widespread forecasts of -3C. Lowest on met.ie is +1C at 0800. Am I still off my trolley???!!! :-D

There's a light dusting above ~400m on the Dublin mountains at the moment.

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

I hate to say I told you so but the temperature didn't get below zero last night or this morning, despite the widespread forecasts of -3C. Lowest on met.ie is +1C at 0800. Am I still off my trolley???!!! :-D

There's a light dusting above ~400m on the Dublin mountains at the moment.

in fairness you did call it but would i be right in saying its only from today on that the proper cold moves in? this morning was quite mild relative to other mornings. also what is your view on the event next Tuesday/Wednesday flagged by MT and others or is it too far away yet?

Villain

Nice covering of Snow in Hacketstown last night snow line was 140m

average_runner

Basically all i like to know will Dublin West get any snow over the weekend?

irish1967

Warmest morning of the week here so far. First time I haven't had to de ice the car. Was expecting temps to dip after rain stopped. Dry here now. And totally calm.

Su Campu

munsterlegend wrote: »

in fairness you did call it but would i be right in saying its only from today on that the proper cold moves in? this morning was quite mild relative to other mornings. also what is your view on the event next Tuesday/Wednesday flagged by MT and others or is it too far away yet?

That's true, today marks the start of business, but on Tuesday I said we wouldn't see many sub-zero temperatures until tonight and I was slated. Others said we'd have them before last night's rain and after it cleared but there was always going to be too much cloud cover for that.

Regarding Tuesday, it would look a more organised chance of more widespread snow. It will be frontal, as opposed to this weekend's convective nature, so with warm overrunning we could see bands of snow to maybe all levels inland, still dodgy at the windward coasts. Of course the exact evolution of this low will determine the minor details

Just saw the forecast on bbc news 24 with Chris Falkes and boy it's a classic.
It shows the East coast of Ireland getting hammered with snow showers first overnight tonight and at times tomorrow but it looked like blizzards all along the East coast on Sunday and well inland from there.

He also mentioned the storm system to the south of the UK for the first time bringing significant snow there and a spell of heavy snow spreading in to Ne England that was going to head all the way out into the irish sea on sunday with Dublin in it's sights to add to the irish sea snow.

(am I ramping now or was that Chris Falkes?)

:D:D

snaps

I think we are all getting our hopes up. I remember last week that it was suppossed to turn cold from mon/tuesday onwards. Everyday its been pushed back and back. Last night was a normal november night with lashing rain and temps peaking at 7.6c around midnight here. Yesterday morning the mountains here was snow covered to about half way down (The reek looked gorgeous). The other night also it rained and it was exactly 0c, which just froze straight onto the frozen ground. I think i am going to avoid this forum now and just hope to wake up one morning, drawing back the blinds and seeing a covering of snow, just like when i was a kid back in the UK in the 70's/80's (Wish we had winters like those again!)

Snaps in the old thread,I always said as did su campu that it would be into the weekend before business begins.
I think today won't be a patch on tomorrow and the rest of the weekend in terms of cold.
I'm much more hopefull of snow on the East coast than I was a week ago mainly due to the strength of the convection and the strength of the NE or East wind-Especially sunday.
After that I'll take any bonus if it comes.
It's early to pin details.
Some people will be disappointed because they miss shower trains in the upcoming Easterly.Even parts of the East will miss them such is the lottery of shower trains.

By the way Chris Falkes also said the irish sea showers now going into North wales were all falling as snow.
This was shown also on the bbc wales news this morning.

MUSEIST

snaps wrote: »

I think we are all getting our hopes up. I remember last week that it was suppossed to turn cold from mon/tuesday onwards. Everyday its been pushed back and back. Last night was a normal november night with lashing rain and temps peaking at 7.6c around midnight here. Yesterday morning the mountains here was snow covered to about half way down (The reek looked gorgeous). The other night also it rained and it was exactly 0c, which just froze straight onto the frozen ground. I think i am going to avoid this forum now and just hope to wake up one morning, drawing back the blinds and seeing a covering of snow, just like when i was a kid back in the UK in the 70's/80's (Wish we had winters like those again!)

Well the cold does always seem to be pushed back. Shock horror, thats never happened before. But the cold never really sets in until tonight/tomorrow. Some snow showers to inland eastern areas over the weekend. Very cold for my location, barely above 0 an down to -5 at night during the start of next week but it will be snowless here.

nellygill

9:08 rte.ie
Motorists are being advised to take extreme care on the roads this weekend as temperatures are set to fall as low as -5C degrees at night with snow and icy conditions expected from this evening.
The wintry weather is forecast to hit this evening with snow showers expected in north western counties and parts of Leinster.
Snow showers are expected to affect north Connacht, Donegal and eastern counties of Leinster giving accumulations of 3cm to 5cm at times.
The accumulations will occur mainly at night time, with occasional thawing likely by day.
Met Éireann is warning temperatures could drop as low as -5C degrees overnight at the weekend.
The Road Safety Authority has urged that drivers, cyclists and pedestrians should be extra vigilant.
The RSA is advising people to watch out for black ice, use dipped headlights, leave plenty of space to brake and be prepared for breakdowns.
In Britain, up to 15cm of snow fell yesterday; the earliest snow for November in almost two decades.

linguist

Morning all. Haven't really been around here much since all the fun we had during those great days of January 2010. Here's hoping we've a lot more to comment on here over the days and weeks ahead. Just great to have something else to talk about than the dreaded economy.

H2UMrsRobinson

Deleted User wrote: »

I think today won't be a patch on tomorrow and the rest of the weekend in terms of cold.
I'm much more hopefull of snow on the East coast than I was a week ago mainly due to the strength of the convection and the strength of the NE or East wind-Especially sunday.
QUOTE]

You know it'll be good when Black Briar is hopeful...!

Speak Now

Well GFS 06Z is rolling out now and at T33 we have a good northeasterly with good cold uppers so we'll know soon enough

pp_me

daytime temperatures will range from 0 to 2 degrees and with values dropping as low as -5 or -6 at night giving severe frosts. Most of the country will be dry, but wintry showers of sleet and snow will continue to affect coastal counties of Leinster, Ulster and north Connacht. The showers in Leinster will push further inland at times and will fall as snow.

Very definite forecast from Met.IE

H2UMrsRobinson

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

You know it'll be good when Black Briar is hopeful...!

I'm very hopefull but I'll admit,my gut instincts and experience is slow to discount su campu's caution either.
Some of the irish sea showers driving into wales are a rain snow mix at raf valley on anglesea.
However,you got to look at where the air there is coming from,it's essentially still very modified polar maratime.
It haslittle or no mixing from the cold air down the East of scotland/NE England and no scandi element.
Hence it's dewpoint is marginal.
Swing those winds round to the north east,dragging in air from the north sea and across Northern England and eventually from scandi and you get a big colder difference.
Air temps and dp's might drop from by 2 to 3 degree's by day time and that would say snow to me.
The sst at the m2 buoy is already down a degree on last week standing at 12c
Air there is 7c which is a no no currently but crucially look at the dp there versus that high temp and the rh.
So lets see and lets be hopefull.
Yes I am

lucernarian

Quick thoughts - WRT Tuesday, the sea surface temperatures could play a very significant role in preventing snow along the east coast itself. The GFS 00z dewpoint model for example, despite the cold air mass, is still putting borderline dewpoints throughout Tuesday.

The showers for this weekend I am more hopeful for, as my experience so far is that showery convective conditions tend to be more robust to marginal dewpoints, perhaps because the smaller scale of such showers means there's more variance in temperatures such as places with colder than expected temperatures etc. The upper air temperatures also seem very good for this weekend, even with sea temperatures. However, su campu's tephigram forecast for Dublin has dented my optimism and it does suggest that altitude will be particularly important this weekend.

I may head home for this weekend. 120 metres higher than in Dublin should help the snow cause!

maquiladora

06Z GFS has that low on Tuesday weaker and further to the east than on the 0Z run but with slightly better upper temps for us.

Correction : east, not west!

WolfeIRE

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS has that low on Tuesday weaker and further to the west than on the 0Z run but with slightly better upper temps for us.

further west is good for us. Not too bothered that it's somewhat weaker. As long as it is tracking a little closer our way.

If you hate snow, I apologise for my overpowering desire to see snow fall here next tuesday

TheMilkyPirate

Anybody up for making a little map like we had a few times last year where it shows where they think the snow will fall and how much? It would help with everyone asking will it snow here or there. I would but wouldn't be the most knowledgable.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Quick thoughts - WRT Tuesday, the sea surface temperatures could play a very significant role in preventing snow along the east coast itself. The GFS 00z dewpoint model for example, despite the cold air mass, is still putting borderline dewpoints throughout Tuesday.

The showers for this weekend I am more hopeful for, as my experience so far is that showery convective conditions tend to be more robust to marginal dewpoints, perhaps because the smaller scale of such showers means there's more variance in temperatures such as places with colder than expected temperatures etc. The upper air temperatures also seem very good for this weekend, even with sea temperatures. However, su campu's tephigram forecast for Dublin has dented my optimism and it does suggest that altitude will be particularly important this weekend.

I may head home for this weekend. 120 metres higher than in Dublin should help the snow cause!

yup
Remember the front that came in from the south towards the end of last january's spell.
That fell as rain/sleet/rain snow/rain on the coast.
That was against a strong NE/east wind of a dp compromised at that stage irish sea at a colder time of the year.
That said,this is not nailed yet by any means for beyond monday.
It's a case of watching developments.

MUSEIST

looks fairly dry for most next week;)

Lol...
From the 6z gfs...look at the temp at 6am over cork FI [fantasy island]

leahyl

Not much hope for snow in the south it looks like - although cold and crisp which is christmassy enough i suppose:D

munsterlegend

Deleted User wrote: »

yup
Remember the front that came in from the south towards the end of last january's spell.
That fell as rain/sleet/rain snow/rain on the coast.
That was against a strong NE/east wind of a dp compromised at that stage irish sea at a colder time of the year.
That said,this is not nailed yet by any means for beyond monday.
It's a case of watching developments.

i remember it well - gave us our only snow event. turned to sleet/rain by evening on the cork coast. that front on Tuesday represents our best chance for snow at present anything else would be a passing isolated shower though MT has showers more widespread than Met Eireann.