Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

nacho libre

leahyl wrote: »

Not much hope for snow in the south it looks like - although cold and crisp which is christmassy enough i suppose:D

remember what happened last year? with this low on tuesday it may well give snow in unexpected places and rain in others. my gut instinct tells me this will be a rain and snow mix for Ireland.

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Not much hope for snow in the south it looks like - although cold and crisp which is christmassy enough i suppose:D

hey u - there must be snow in the air given we're both on again!

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

hey u - there must be snow in the air given we're both on again!

haha i know - me and my unhealthy love of snow! Hopefully it will pay off for each one of us here hoping and praying;)

WolfeIRE

Britain is facing a ten-day wintry blast from the North Sea with temperatures plummeting as low as minus 6C.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkh-RK9v4Ts

HellFireClub

Was it just me as a young lad who used to feel sick to the core of your stomach years ago as a kid when it started to snow and your da would come in from work and mutter those dreaded words, "it's not sticking"?!?

leahyl

HellFireClub wrote: »

Was it just me as a young lad who used to feel sick to the core of your stomach years ago as a kid when it started to snow and your da would come in from work and mutter those dreaded words, "it's not sticking"?!?

haha brilliant:D I hated when my parent used to say that too - "that's only wet snow....it won't stay on the ground at all":mad:

steps_3314

Anyway to find out what the weather will be like this day 2 weeks.

Getting married on Dec 10th and would love weather similar to what were getting now. Cold and Sunny with a slight frost :)

hotwhiskey

I know the expections are high here for next Tuesday for the potential for heavy snow! I don't want to damping the enthusiasm but the latest GFS run has backed off on this storm since yesterday.

Just looking at this morning compared to this time yesterday the storm has filled out slightly but more worrying its alot further east over south Belgium making a track through Holland and into the north sea where before it had been over southeast England. It just might be a wobble as the say!!!

But on a good note the ECM is sticking to it's guns keeping on a track along southeast England which is very good for southern Ireland.:)

maquiladora

WolfeIRE wrote: »

further west is good for us. Not too bothered that it's somewhat weaker. As long as it is tracking a little closer our way.

If you hate snow, I apologise for my overpowering desire to see snow fall here next tuesday

I actually meant to say further east, not west! :P Sorry Wofle.

roryc1

steps_3314 wrote: »

Anyway to find out what the weather will be like this day 2 weeks.

Getting married on Dec 10th and would love weather similar to what were getting now. Cold and Sunny with a slight frost :)

Yeah sure is,
Get a hat and some paper
Write wet on one piece of paper
Dry on another, then hot, cold etc
And pick one

MUSEIST

steps_3314 wrote: »

Anyway to find out what the weather will be like this day 2 weeks.

Getting married on Dec 10th and would love weather similar to what were getting now. Cold and Sunny with a slight frost :)

cold, dry, wet, snowy, frosty, windy or heatwave. One of these

leahyl

hotwhiskey wrote: »

But on a good note the ECM is sticking to it's guns keeping on a track along southeast England which is very good for southern Ireland.:)

WOOHOO!

nacho libre

hotwhiskey wrote: »

I know the expections are high here for next Tuesday for the potential for heavy snow! I don't want to damping the enthusiasm but the latest GFS run has backed off on this storm since yesterday.

Just looking at this morning compared to this time yesterday the storm has filled out slightly but more worrying its alot further east over south Belgium making a track through Holland and into the north sea where before it had been over southeast England. It just might be a wobble as the say!!!

i just can't understand the gfs being so bullish early on about low of that intensity, then backing off when it comes closer to time. there could be a lot of toys strewn about the place over on netweather over the latest gfs ouput, but it just shows that you should always be skeptical of their mouth watering outputs in fi.

munsterlegend

hotwhiskey wrote: »

I know the expections are high here for next Tuesday for the potential for heavy snow! I don't want to damping the enthusiasm but the latest GFS run has backed off on this storm since yesterday.

Just looking at this morning compared to this time yesterday the storm has filled out slightly but more worrying its alot further east over south Belgium making a track through Holland and into the north sea where before it had been over southeast England. It just might be a wobble as the say!!!

But on a good note the ECM is sticking to it's guns keeping on a track along southeast England which is very good for southern Ireland.:)

which would you consider more reliable?!

steps_3314

MUSEIST wrote: »

cold, dry, wet, snowy, frosty, windy or heatwave. One of these

Great...bit closer to knowing at least

hotwhiskey

munsterlegend wrote: »

which would you consider more reliable?!

Lol!:D I asked the same question here earlier on this week!

Answer i got ECM.:)

leahyl

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Lol!:D I asked the same question here earlier on this week!

Answer i got ECM.:)

This is fantastic news! For me....:D

darkman2

Just looked over all the models and we are still on track really from tomorrow morning. Later tonight we will see the first showers on the East coast. Probrably hail and sleet at first on the coast but turning to snow later in the night. And then it's a case of snow showers in the East and Southeast through tomorrow, tomorrow night and Sunday and on into Sunday night. At times showers could be patchy but pepping up also now and again.


The UKMO is probrably best for the shortest term or the next 24 hrs. Very cold. Showers will be of mostly snow (maybe some hail at times, no bad thing) there is no doubt about it.

Midnight tonight



6am




Interesting fax chart for later tonight




Temperatures falling very low tonight - down to -5 in places with severe frost and ice where rain, sleet or snow falls today.

Deep Easterly

An interesting (or pointless) stat. Yesterday's mean temperature (IMT of 1.8c) was the lowest daily mean IMT temperature recorded since the 8th of March.

DOCARCH

Deep Easterly wrote: »

An interesting (or pointless) stat. Yesterday's mean temperature (IMT of 1.8c) was the lowest daily mean IMT temperature recorded since the 8th of March.

Ditto here! Except I had a mean here yesterday of 1.25c, being the lowest since March 8th. Didn't post up earlier as it is pointless (but interesting).

Su Campu

I've limited access to models today as I'm using my phone but could someone post the latest GFS forecast sounding for Dublin Airport (EIDW) for 12Z Saturday, like the one I posted last night?

Go to http://www.ready.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html and type in EIDW for airport code. Select "Sounding" and model timescale, select 00Z run, select 27th 12Z, 1200dpi, to 400hPa only and the security code and then save the resulting image as a png. I'm just interested in if it's changed at all overnight.

Thanks slaves, now get to work....whittttish!!

Winger_PL

That what you're looking for?

Cionád

Am I incorrect? :-)

Su Campu

Actuall I got it to work on my phone! The 06Z run has upgraded slightly with the warm layer now about 1000ft....better but still not ideal.

Dotsie~tmp

My effort. Probably wrong.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Am I seeing this wrong or can you see the track of the shower in the Irish sea veering towards us on the rainfall radar ?

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

I've limited access to models today as I'm using my phone but could someone post the latest GFS forecast sounding for Dublin Airport (EIDW) for 12Z Saturday, like the one I posted last night?

Go to http://www.ready.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html and type in EIDW for airport code. Select "Sounding" and model timescale, select 00Z run, select 27th 12Z, 1200dpi, to 400hPa only and the security code and then save the resulting image as a png. I'm just interested in if it's changed at all overnight.

Thanks slaves, now get to work....whittttish!!

Probably done it wrong, but here it is.

Shows Zero Temp Therm at circa 975mb

Su Campu

Dotsie~tmp wrote: »

My effort. Probably wrong.

Bang on! Thanks guys

Deep Easterly

DOCARCH wrote: »

Ditto here! Except I had a mean here yesterday of 1.25c, being the lowest since March 8th. Didn't post up earlier as it is pointless (but interesting).

A more modest mean 2.5c here Docarch as temps rose yesterday evening along with the rain.

Bigcheeze

My Accuweather app is giving a warning for Dublin of 1-3 inch accumulations on Sunday. Is Accuweather reliable ?