Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

darkman2

I think the snow showers (very initially hail and sleet on immediate East coasts turning to snow) will arrive on the Wicklow/Wexford coasts before 1am and North of that extending to Dublin and maybe Meath shortly after. Could be a long night....

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

Hope you are right Darkman, but we don't usually get snow showers reaching as far as Waterford from the Irish Sea in this kind of a setup due to terrain and the distance the showers have to travel.

Tuesday/Wednesday might be more interesting if things fall on the right side of marginal. I have my doubts though.

I agree with you on that one Maq, I remember radar watching last Winter and seeing those showers heading for us just dying a death. There were just one or two made it to us.
The wind here though has picked up at 18km/h NW which has really dried out the air. Temp is 5.4c DP 0.0c RH 68%. Will be interesting to see what happens when the really cold air comes in later tonight and tomorrow.


More Detail @ www.waterfordcityweather.com

Iancar29

Winger_PL wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLvZJifIyj8

EDIT: and here's the real thing: http://www.skiclub.ie/Location/Default.209.html

Cant wait to try them out!... haha

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

That hirlam model wolfie posted has the showers plastering into waterford and east cork too.
I kinda trust hirlam at t-24hrs too.

Also Siobhán Ryan said snow showers in the east from late tonight onwards and she did not say sleet or rain on the coast.

Mixed messages coming out of glasnevin underlining some of the uncertainty.

We have been saying this since the 15th of November or something similar. I think we know what is going to happen:) pffft rain...

K-9

Way hay.

Snowing here now.

patneve2

I don't want to ramp or anything but I believe that these showers could be heavier than most people think they will...thinking back to our last episode of convection here on the East Coast (about 5 days ago), a mere breath of wind from the NE gave accumulations of over 25mm here in SE Dublin. Watch out for the odd rumble of thunder too, the sea is still warm and that is the main shower-making factor.

ongarboy

If you click on Weather Warnings, they still have the 12:30 timestamp.

I find they update the Outlook part of their general forecast once a day first thing in the morning but the today/tonight/tomorrow part is updated at intervals throughout the day (so is more up to date) but the wording on Outlook is still the same as it was at 6am this morning and can be out of date by end of day when more accurate forecasts are available. As we can see the wording of the today/tomorrow forecasts changes with each update so best to rely on that for met eireann's latest take on what will happen for the following 36 hours.

hotwhiskey

Deleted User wrote: »

That hirlam model wolfie posted has the showers plastering into waterford and east cork too.
I kinda trust hirlam at t-24hrs too.

Also Siobhán Ryan said snow showers in the east from late tonight onwards and she did not say sleet or rain on the coast.

Mixed messages coming out of glasnevin underlining some of the uncertainty.

It will be a mix of wintry showers and some hill snow but mostly rain!:p

ffarrell7

It appears from the most recent RTE weather update that the East coast will get the heaviest snow showers and will also be the coldest part of the country. Dublin is being earmarked in the local weather as having heavy snow showers late tonight, Saturday, Sunday and Monday with day time teperatures 1 degree at best. My bet is that Dublin/Wicklow part of Kildare will get the worst of the weather with the South and West (Waterford/Cork/East Kerry/Clare/Galway) escaping completely. Currently in Castleknock it is 1.5 degrees.

faktisperminute

Had really heavy hail showers following by snow !
yay

darkman2

Tomorrow night, if anything, will be more interesting then tonight. Conditions perfect for heavy snow showers in the East and disruptive amounts aswell.

(UK Met Office)

Pressure (perfect, not too strong, Northeasterly flow)



850hpa temps (again pretty much perfect, -9s in the North Irish Sea and sub zero dew points)



Precipitation (plenty of showers)

munsterlegend

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It appears from the most recent RTE weather update that the East coast will get the heaviest snow showers and will also be the coldest part of the country. Dublin is being earmarked in the local weather as having heavy snow showers late tonight, Saturday, Sunday and Monday with day time teperatures 1 degree at best. My bet is that Dublin/Wicklow part of Kildare will get the worst of the weather with the South and West (Waterford/Cork/East Kerry/Clare/Galway) escaping completely. Currently in Castleknock it is 1.5 degrees.

but wait until the frontal snow event next tuesday/wednesday night and the south gets plastered!

force eleven

Not optimistic for any snow in the midlands. Those streamer type set ups never favour us from the northeast. Need proper troughing from the northwest to have any chance for say, Offaly Westmeath Laois and North Tipp . Will not be lamppost watching tonight, and not just because we don't have any here

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

Mixed messages coming out of glasnevin underlining some of the uncertainty.

I think the "Outlook" part of the Met Eireann forecast is only updated once a day, very early in the morning. That might explain the mixed messages in the outlook as opposed to the latest forecast for tonight/tomorrow?

WolfeIRE

ffarrell7 wrote: »

My bet is that Dublin/Wicklow part of Kildare will get the worst of the weather with the South and West (Waterford/Cork/East Kerry/Clare/Galway) escaping completely.

Clare, kerry and galway will see some heavy wintry showers tomorrow evening according to all models and RTE.

darkman - is that a shallow low in the south irish sea ?

howlinwolf

will be drivin home from work tonight a little after 12, from newbridge to carlow, might be a little early in the night to see some snow but heres hopin;)

TheMilkyPirate

Anyone else excited like a little child? Watching the toy show tonight with the young fella watchin the snow fall outside, christmas starts tonight!

(okay maybe it won't be falling when the toy show is on but shhh don't ruin my fantasy.)

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

darkman - is that a shallow low in the south irish sea ?

Yes, technically because the entire circulation is below -5 at 850hpa level you could describe it as a shallow polar low - technically. It is extremely unusual in the depths of winter any year but even more extraordinary given this is only the end of November. It would be hard to emphasise enough how unusual this whole setup is for this time of year. It's definately the most sustained and deep cold I can remember in my little life time - you would have to go back a very long way to find anything similar to this. But that's some setup there for the East tomorrow night. Your gonna do well out of that

Pangea

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It appears from the most recent RTE weather update that the East coast will get the heaviest snow showers and will also be the coldest part of the country.

I wouldnt agree with that, equally heavy showers expected in the north and northwest expecting frequent snow showers over the next few days according to the karina buckleys forecast at lunchtime.

maquiladora wrote: »

Sounds like a bit of an upgrade on the latest ME forecast for tonight?

Current Forecast:
Friday, 26 November 2010 12:39

Tonight

Wintry showers affecting northern and western counties tonight, some falling as snow, in particular over Ulster. Later in the night snow showers will feed in from the Irish Sea to affect much of east Leinster, with some snow accumulations here towards morning. Lowest temperatures of -3 to 0 degrees, with a widespread severe frost and icy patches, and light northerly breezes.

.

munsterlegend

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Clare, kerry and galway will see some heavy wintry showers tomorrow evening according to all models and RTE.

you could have said cork as well!

maquiladora

darkman2 wrote: »

Tomorrow night, if anything, will be more interesting then tonight. Conditions perfect for heavy snow showers in the East and disruptive amounts aswell.

(UK Met Office)

I wonder if those UKMO precip charts are overdoing it a bit?

I mean, look at the chart for 1pm today, you'd expect showers quite far inland in the southeast from looking at that :



The reality :

nacho libre

I can't wait to read Philip Eden's column on this period of weather. it surely will go down as one of the coldest ends to a November ever recorded.

Figuramatyi

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Clare, kerry and galway will see some heavy wintry showers tomorrow evening according to all models and RTE.

I hope that these words will be become true!
In the meantime, heavy snow showers are attacking Connacht, not yet in Galway but my hopes are high



Edit: animgif not working linked. Learned sg. today too!

Edit 2: that massive patch will *just* miss us by an inch to the east.. so typical
Anyway, looking forward to the next 7-10 days with huge excitement

glossy

baraca wrote: »

Anyone else excited like a little child? Watching the toy show tonight with the young fella watchin the snow fall outside, christmas starts tonight!

(okay maybe it won't be falling when the toy show is on but shhh don't ruin my fantasy.)

:D:D

Sierra Oscar

It is bloody freezing! Brrrrr . . .

darkman2

maquiladora wrote: »

I wonder if those UKMO precip charts are overdoing it a bit?

I mean, look at the chart for 1pm today, you'd expect showers quite far inland in the southeast from looking at that :



The reality :

They are at a lower resolution but they would not be as off as what we have seen there today simply because I suppose the wind direction suits us. It is probrably overdoing things a bit but it can't be ignored all the same. The potential is definately there.

The higher res for tomorrow afternoon for example

Deep Easterly

Snow is beginnig to stick here!

ffarrell7

munsterlegend wrote: »

you could have said cork as well!

No offence but is is so unusual for snow to fall in Cork especialy the City. It snowed last year for one day there. My neighbour even drove down to see it (he is from Cork) whilst we had been blasted with it in West Dublin since 31 December to 12 January with sub zero daily temperatures and 2 cm of lying snow from 3 January when the heaviest snow falls closed the airport on three or four occasions. My neighbour had been living in Castleknock for two years and during both winters we had heavy snowfall something he never snow in Cork. The mountain passes had been closed for weeks and the snow only melted high up in late March/April.
Hope you get some though.

MayoForSam

Can anyone confirm if those showers moving down through Connacht at the moment are actually snow showers (my house is right below the pink spot even as we speak :eek:)?

Last update from Knock Airport was reporting snow right?