Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Maq

I spotted this earlier too but discounted it as it surely would have been spotted by ME and others if it was going to happen. I also wondering why the winds have not shifted from their NNW pattern all day when they were due to shift to N and then NNE nefore turning NE tonight.

not necessarily. a polar low can develop quite quickly and it can be difficult to know where they'll track exactly, so they could easily be missed, or discounted by met eireann as not a threat to us.

WolfeIRE

watch that system maq was talking about here

forms off norway and tracks SW
http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

It is most likely that this system will keep tracking sw but may deliver some hefty showers for NW and N

faktisperminute

WOOW POLAR LOW!!!!! :D:D I am gonna watch out for her!

lucernarian

Christ on a bike the models have shown this feature today and I never even copped it. Particularly the ECMWF model. Western parts of Donegal and Mayo are particularly at risk.

Chicken Run

well those of you who remember my weird talent from last year...

about 2pm today I got a real sudden sharp frontal headache...dint think too much of it

about 4pm - SNOW

and for those in Clare - the headache is still there and still strong so we have more to come.

Temp was 6.5C at noon, 3.5C at 3pm and now 0.3C

mickger844posts

Hopefully the wind change tomorrow to NE will give some action to the Eastern half of the country.

irish1967

Do we get to name a polar low??? I think we should call it SNEACHTA

Iancar29

In work Now ( Tesco ) and the place is packed for a Friday evening!! ... People must know that cold is coming!!

... Now off to do some work!

joe199

arnt the winds to change tonight to a north easterly? hoping to wake to a whiteout in the morning:D

patience patience i no, arghh

WolfeIRE

looks like it will brush off the nw coast only. Can't see what is going to make it change course and track further south

irish1967

WolfeIRE wrote: »

looks like it will brush off the nw coast only. Can't see what is going to make it change course and track further south

Well I think I would be happy with that ! Except I have to drive to Derry early tomorrow... that wee spinner could change everything.:eek:

irishdub14

joe199 wrote: »

arnt the winds to change tonight to a north easterly? hoping to wake to a whiteout in the morning:D

patience patience i no, arghh

Yes I will be absolutely gutted if there isn't snow on the ground tomorrow morning!

Chicken Run

irishdub14 wrote: »

Yes I will be absolutely gutted if there isn't snow on the ground tomorrow morning!

Not too much please - I've to drive to work on a "not-too-fabulous" stretch of road

darkman2

Just an observation about overnight and tomorrow morning in the East - the temperatures in the East will drop below freezing before the showers arrive because the wind will still be off shore until midnight at least. So any initial hail or sleet will fall on to a cold surface so is likely to hang around. Then when snow begins to fall it may settle quickly so don't be supprised if the ground is white in the morning if your near the East coast. Id expect at the very least that driving will be tricky where showers occur (water onto frozen surfaces etc).

irish1967

Weather story coming up on 6-1 news in a few minutes

maquiladora

Just Contribute

Hey guys! I don't know anything about any of this stuff, and I was wondering if you think there is any chance of it snowing in Cork overnight and if that snow will stick?

darkman2

Just Contribute wrote: »

Hey guys! I don't know anything about any of this stuff, and I was wondering if you think there is any chance of it snowing in Cork overnight and if that snow will stick?

A small chance but it's unlikely tbh.

Bigcheeze

Does Met.ie not have a proper bloody graphic for snow ? It looks like hail.

Soooo in the space of two hours we seem to have gone from predictions of East getting a quite a bit of snow tonight to very little or nothing or am I misinterpreting ?

Su Campu

At last, back home and access to the charts again!!

Strange, the 12Z Satrep (byt the Austrian Met Office I think) gives not one but two Polar Lows, one off Scotland and one off southeast England, but I'm pretty sure they're not actual proper PLs, and indeed the Dutch Satrep that Maq posted above would confirm that they're just comma systems. The one off the north is a bit enhanced by lee troughing from the Scottish terrain, and neither of them show proper polar low satellite characteristics and nor are they warm-cored.

But I have been watching the area west of Norway for signs of proper polar low genesis as conditions are ripe there.

TheMilkyPirate

Just Contribute wrote: »

Hey guys! I don't know anything about any of this stuff, and I was wondering if you think there is any chance of it snowing in Cork overnight and if that snow will stick?

Unfortunately, Probably not.

lucy2010

I never drive in snow or ice - Hate it so just leave betsy at home ... Well some prize tool has just ploughed side of my car out of it in Tesco car park. NO ICE OR SNOW TO BLAME just a prize f%^&(()£ tool....

arctictree

irish1967 wrote: »

Weather story coming up on 6-1 news in a few minutes

Bit of a tame report there from RTE. 'A few snow showers possible' ??? WTF - GFS is showing a whiteout on the east coast from tomorrow...

TheMilkyPirate

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Does Met.ie not have a proper bloody graphic for snow ? It looks like hail.

Soooo in the space of two hours we seem to have gone from predictions of East getting a quite a bit of snow tonight to very little or nothing or am I misinterpreting ?

I don't know where your getting this out of?

Bigcheeze

arctictree wrote: »

Bit of a tame report there from RTE. 'A few snow showers possible' ??? WTF - GFS is showing a whiteout on the east coast from tomorrow...

Boards weather forum, your credibility is at stake. Don't let me down!

Bigcheeze

baraca wrote: »

I don't know where your getting this out of?

WolfeIRE wrote: »

looks like it will brush off the nw coast only. Can't see what is going to make it change course and track further south

from WolfeIRE but on re-reading he isn't talking about the snow is he ? Sorry!

darkman2

6hr precipitation between 00 and 06am tonight illustrates nicely the snow showers moving onto the East coast. These should last till maybe midday tomorrow but as WC said the winds will go Northerly for a time tomorrow due to a shallow low in the flow so the showers will move offshorse again for a time.

faktisperminute

everything is white! heavy snoW!!!!!!:D

irish1967

lucy2010 wrote: »

I never drive in snow or ice - Hate it so just leave betsy at home ... Well some prize tool has just ploughed side of my car out of it in Tesco car park. NO ICE OR SNOW TO BLAME just a prize f%^&(()£ tool....

hmmmm.. and to quote Iancar29 earlier...

In work Now ( Tesco ) and the place is packed for a Friday evening!! ... People must know that cold is coming!!

... Now off to do some work!

oh dear :rolleyes:

lucernarian

Looking at the satellite footage more closely, there seems to be a tight circulation in the Aberdeen area at about 1200 hours which looked more like a proper polar low, but there was no warm core associated with it either. The wind speeds associated with that circulation were also very timid.

I'm suprised that the sub -40 degree temps to the west and north of Scotland haven't led to something more pronounced than a couple of commas. The ECMWF seemed to pick up on the comma approaching Ireland's west coast particularly well.