Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 25/11/2010 onwards

roryc1

Hey Maq what part or the country are you in?

ninebeanrows

ECM is sweet, and for once is keen to have sub -8c Air during Saturday and Sunday, briefly heading up to -6/-7c Monday before heading back to Sub -8c Tuesday as the winter storm ramps up in Biscay.

This would suggest with slack easterly winds from late Friday evening during Saturday and Sunday for banks of snow showers to affect
the Eastern coasts, with decent accumulations at times.

Probably spreading upto 10-30 miles inland depending on wind speed etc.

maquiladora

roryc1 wrote: »

Hey Maq what part or the country are you in?

Waterford. :rolleyes:

Kippure

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM is sweet, and for once is keen to have sub -8c Air during Saturday and Sunday, briefly heading up to -6/-7c Monday before heading back to Sub -8c Tuesday as the winter storm ramps up in Biscay.

This would suggest with slack easterly winds from late Friday evening during Saturday and Sunday for banks of snow showers to affect
the Eastern coasts, with decent accumulations at times.

Probably spreading upto 10-30 miles inland depending on wind speed etc.

That is some little storm developing on the models. Do you think we are seeing maybe a new pattern developing here? Atlantic trying to push in from the south against cold north easterlys?

irishdub14

Hey guys, I have been lurking around here for awhile and just want to know how to get the altitude of my location?

DOCARCH

irishdub14 wrote: »

Hey guys, I have been lurking around here for awhile and just want to know how to get the altitude of my location?

Here: http://www.earthtools.org/

Su Campu

irishdub14 wrote: »

Hey guys, I have been lurking around here for awhile and just want to know how to get the altitude of my location?

http://www.earthtools.org

Cionád

irishdub14 wrote: »

Hey guys, I have been lurking around here for awhile and just want to know how to get the altitude of my location?

Click the tools tab, then height
http://www.earthtools.org/

maquiladora

ECM out as far as next Thursday, still cold...

pauldry

5degrados and raining in Sligo.

No snow yet. All we can do is hope really.

Black ICe this morning was first signed of Winter

Minus 0.4 last night but think 2 c tonight

And dont think we will be getting all that snow just a few showers 6 to 10am the best time for snow

Its 1848pm now and thats a bad time hence the rain

Bigcheeze

Hi, I'm due to fly out of Dublin on Tuesday morning, back Wednesday evening. Reading over the last few pages it sounds like that could be around the peak of this cold spell. Do you think there's a significant risk of travel disruption then ?

demakinz

Rain here at the mo.

ffarrell7

Why are a lot of you using miles??? This country is metric and all distances and speeds are in kilometres only and have been for the past few years. 90 per cent of the world measures distances and speeds in kilometres including Canada and Australia.:D:D:D:D

irish1967

Because we want to

gally74

rocking forcast on RTE!!!

isle of man

so my little weather forcasters, can you show you magic again.

whats the chances of getting a bit of the white stuff over the next few days.

With what i have seen and looked at, im thinking its a 50/50 chance of snow if the showers hit us in the right spot,
i got quite good last winter of getting snow right with all your help that is.

so just looking at increasing me skills this year.

I think the hills may get a dusting but i dont think it be in any great amounts

cheers in advance

maquiladora

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Hi, I'm due to fly out of Dublin on Tuesday morning, back Wednesday evening. Reading over the last few pages it sounds like that could be around the peak of this cold spell. Do you think there's a significant risk of travel disruption then ?

Way too early to know. Chances are though that things wont turn out that bad. Keep an eye on the weather forecast on TV over the weekend just in case.

gally74

rte started with a weather warning, snow and accumlations, max daily tem 2-3 degrees for the next few days,

could really happen,

Elmo5

gally74 wrote: »

rocking forcast on RTE!!!

What did they say? I missed it!

patneve2

can anyone re-cap on what was said on the RTE weather? Missed it by 5 minutes:mad:

TheMilkyPirate

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Why are a lot of you using miles??? This country is metric and all distances and speeds are in kilometres only and have been for the past few years. 90 per cent of the world measures distances and speeds in kilometres including Canada and Australia.:D:D:D:D

I don't think i'll ever get the hang of the metric system, Ever. I know how fast 60mph is i know how fast 100mph is i don't know how fast 130km/h is. Metric sucks.

dbyrne

raining here at the moment and according to earth tools i am 34m above sea level

gally74

weather warning,

snow and really cold temps,


aaccumlations up to 5cm,

cold temps out to next wednesday.......:)

gally74

starting to think i need to buy a snow board for ireland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27EV7nsiklg&feature=player_embedded#

Snowman10

just looked at sky news weather and the snow showers coming down from the north totally miss kildare carlow kilkenny and western wicklow :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

ffarrell7

baraca wrote: »

I don't think i'll ever get the hang of the metric system, Ever. I know how fast 60mph is i know how fast 100mph is i don't know how fast 130km/h is. Metric sucks.

Imperial measurements are British ...the Irish copy everything the British do and even when they implement the metric system officially they still think and act like the British (in general). That is what is wrong with this country..nothing against Britain..we just cannot think independently..Britain is always our point of reference for everything..even the weather!
Anyway looks like the East, especially Dublin and Wicklow, in a for some snow days.:D

carlmwan

is there a rte news on at 9 because i dont like tv3 weather forcast

gally74

watch it on the rte news player

M.T. Cranium

There is good model consensus now on a snowfall event for Tuesday, with all four (or five) of the major models showing a storm tracking northeast from near northwest Spain Monday night to some position in northern France. The GFS is most aggressive in bringing this storm north into southeast England and the North Sea. The GEM model has almost the same evolution but not quite as far north and seems the strongest of all in terms of snowfall potential for Ireland. The UKMO and ECM models are more prone to stalling the low in France as they maintain the signal of blocking high pressure to the north. With that evolution, snowfall depends mainly on the strength of the easterly flow across Britain and Ireland.

Obviously too early to be definitive, but snowfalls in the 10-15 cm range would be plausible with any of these models or the model consensus at this stage, with the heaviest falls inland eastern and southern counties.

I continue to think Friday and the weekend will bring scattered outbreaks of 3-5 cms of snow, with the north favoured more than other parts of the country at first, but then later the east and central counties well exposed to incoming snow streamers from the Irish Sea. Winds will tend to veer from NNE towards ENE during the period which should be the main reason for a shift further south in the heavier accumulating snowfall bands.

I also think that snow streamers on the weekend will have vigorous convection due to the extreme difference in air mass temperature and sea temperature (still reported at 12 C at the M2 buoy). Air mass temperatures streaming off the U.K. land mass will be something like -1/-5 for temp dp values. This air will warm rapidly to about 5/2 near the surface but the profile above 200m will only be slightly modified. This will lead to vigorous convection and our many weather watchers in Meath, Dublin and Wicklow as well as some neighbouring counties will no doubt be reporting heavy falls of snow, hail and snow pellets as well as possibly a bit of rain at times, and lightning seems quite likely with this (especially later Saturday and Sunday).

I seem to be going backwards here because now I'm talking about almost a nowcast. As picked up in our forecast, there is a weak warm sector being pulled into the northerly circulation from the near Atlantic and this is temporarily raising temperatures especially in the west. This is a response to the developing wave dropping southwest from Norway, and this warm sector should be pushed off the south coast late tonight, so expect the current rain showers to start mixing more with sleet, hail and snow as the night goes on, but also, more to the east where the warming is less noticeable. A fairly strong cold front will develop tonight around the Hebrides and sweep south across Ulster during the morning. This should mark the onset of the coldest weather and the more organized bands of accumulating snow.

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I also think that snow streamers on the weekend will have vigorous convection due to the extreme difference in air mass temperature and sea temperature (still reported at 12 C at the M2 buoy). Air mass temperatures streaming off the U.K. land mass will be something like -1/-5 for temp dp values. This air will warm rapidly to about 5/2 near the surface but the profile above 200m will only be slightly modified. This will lead to vigorous convection and our many weather watchers in Meath, Dublin and Wicklow as well as some neighbouring counties will no doubt be reporting heavy falls of snow, hail and snow pellets as well as possibly a bit of rain at times, and lightning seems quite likely with this (especially later Saturday and Sunday)

Is this lake effect snow?