December 2010 forecast contest

Su Campu

5.4 ..... 12.9 ..... -9.3 ..... 95 ..... 100 ..... 6.8/-0.8 ..... N

WolfeIRE

5.5C .... 9c .... -12.9C .... 110% .... 95% .... 7.5C/1.9C .... N

Rebelbrowser

2.8 ..... 12.7 ..... -10.6..... 88 ..... 105 ..... 4.9/-3.6 ..... Y

waterways

4.7 ..... 12.9 ..... -14 ..... 87 ..... 110 ..... 5.9/2.8 ..... N

thetonynator

I know i entered too early, but can i edit my min again to -13.5?? I really should leave it til today to enter, but i thought i wouldn't get online this week.
And i've heard the latest forecasts . . .:rolleyes:

Speak Now

4.1 ..... 13 ..... -10 ..... 75% ..... 120% ..... 7/-2 ..... N

homolumo

thetonynator wrote: »

I know i entered too early, but can i edit my min again to -13.5?? I really should leave it til today to enter, but i thought i wouldn't get online this week.
And i've heard the latest forecasts . . .:rolleyes:

same here, could not edit my post. -10.9

pauldry

same panic here can I change mine to minus 11.2c

nilhg

4.1C ..... 13.1C ..... -13.1 ..... 89% ..... 100% ..... 8.9C/0.4C ..... N

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts received so far ...

FORECASTER ..... IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN ... 25th ... SNOW
________________________________________________________________

DeepEasterly ..... 8.1 .... 14.3 ..... -3.0 .... 060 .... 150 ... 14.0/6.9 ... Y
Pauldry ............ 5.8 .... 11.0 .... -11.2 .... 108 .... 115 .... 9.0/3.0 .... N
WolfeIRE ........... 5.5 ..... 9.0 .... -12.9 .... 110 .... 095 .... 7.5/1.9 .... N
Tae laidir .......... 5.5 .... 12.9 ..... -7.9 .... 121 .... 088 ..... 9.0/5.0 ... N
Su Campu ......... 5.4 .... 12.9 ..... -9.3 .... 095 .... 100 ..... 6.8/-0.8 .. N
hellboy99 .......... 5.3 .... 15.0 .... -11.0 .... 077 .... 113 .... 6.0/-2.2 ... N
harry21 ............ 5.1 .... 12.3 .... -10.0 .... 105 .... 110 .... 4.5/1.0 .....N
200motels ........ 5.1 .... 13.2 .... -11.5 .... 129 .... 132 ... 11.0/1.0 ... N
Fionagus .......... 5.0 .... 10.5 .... -11.0 .... 080 .... 092 .... 7.0/-1.0 ... N
Joe Public ......... 4.9 .... 12.9 .... -12.9 .... 139 .... 089 ..... 9.9/3.9 ... N
DOCARCH ......... 4.8 .... 12.8 .... -11.9 .... 089 .... 098 .... 6.2/-1.2 ... N
waterways ........ 4.7 .... 12.9 .... -14.0 .... 087 .... 110 .... 5.9/2.8 ... N
danno .............. 4.7 .... 12.7 .... -14.6 .... 065 .... 110 .... 3.4/-4.7 .. Y
John mac .......... 4.7 .... 10.7 .... -12.3 .... 098 .... 120 .... 10.0/4.0 .. Y
homolumo ......... 4.5 ..... 8.3 .... -10.9 .... 099 .... 118 .... 5.8/-1.1 .. Y
SeaFields .......... 4.5 ..... 8.0 .... -10.5 .... 060 .... 110 .... 6.0/-3.0 .. Y
kindredspirit ...... 4.3 .... 14.6 .... -10.5 .... 080 .... 120 .... 9.0/2.0 ... N
Jambofc* ......... 4.3 .... 12.6 ..... -6.3 .... 100 .... 153 ..... 7.2/1.0 ... N

Con Sensus ...... 4.3 .... 11.0 .... -11.3 .... 090 .... 115 .... 6.2/-1.0 ... N

talkabout ......... 4.3 ..... 8.2 ...... -8.9 ..... 097 .... 110 .... 6.7/-1.2 .. Y
dasa29 ............ 4.2 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.3 .... 125 .... 112 .... 2.0/-6.0 .. Y
Nilhg ................ 4.1 .... 13.1 .... -13.1 .... 089 .... 100 .... 8.9/0.4 ... N
Jerry Seinfeld .... 4.1 .... 13.0 .... -10.0 .... 075 .... 120 .... 7.0/-2.0 .. N
baraca ............. 4.1 .... 14.2 .... -11.0 .... 106 .... 125 .... 6.0/-2.0 .. Y
mickger844pst ... 4.0 ..... 9.1 .... -11.8 .... 076 .... 110 .... 6.2/-1.8 .. Y
nacho libre ....... 3.9 ..... 8.7 ..... -9.6 ..... 085 .... 135 .... 7.3/0.3 ... N
Strasser ........... 3.9 ..... 9.5 .... -11.2 .... 080 .... 115 .... 8.4/3.5 ... N
Cherryghost ...... 3.5 ..... 9.4 ..... -12.0 .... 090 .... 110 .... 4.1/-3.0 .. Y
Sponge Bob ...... 3.3 .... 10.2 .... -10.8 .... 077 .... 137 .... 5.0/1.0 .... N
jd ................... 3.1 ..... 8.1 .... -13.9 .... 098 .... 110 .... 3.8/-2.1 ... Y
Thetonynator ... 3.0 .... 10.0 .... -13.9 .... 070 .... 120 .... 6.0/-2.5 ... N
Rebelbrowser .... 2.8 .... 12.7 .... -10.6 .... 088 .... 105 .... 4.9/-3.6 .. Y
M.T. Cranium .... 2.6 .... 11.0 .... -13.2 .... 070 .... 155 .... 2.0/-3.5 ... Y
Gothwalk ......... 2.4 ..... 7.1 ..... -14.5 .... 075 .... 110 .... 2.0/-4.0 ... Y
Redsunset* ...... 2.3 ..... 6.0 .... -19.0 .... 100 .... 130 .... 5.0/-9.0 ... Y
TheInquisitor .... 2.0 ..... 6.0 ..... -12.0 .... 060 .... 120 .... 2.0/-8.0 ... Y

* late entries, subject to penalty if score >60

As of midnight, no further editing allowed ... unless you want to risk the late penalty ... entries accepted through Thursday 2nd at late penalty.

The consensus forecasts are cold, dry, sunny and almost half the contestants think it may snow on the 25th (climatology says 10%).

Joe Public

I think DE is planning on importing some snow or hoping the IMF will bail him out:D

jambofc

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
4.3..........12.6.......-6.3.......100%......153%.......7.2/1...........n

late again sorry

Redsunset

Damn im very late but here goes anyway

2.5, 6 , -19 ,100 , 130, 5 -9, yes

M.T. Cranium

No worries, you two are only "late" not "too late."

It will only cost you if you score >60. Glad to see that everyone (on my list) has returned and now we await the grim verdict of history.

Will be either editing or re-posting the table and moving consensus a little.

pauldry

min so far minus 9.1c Gurteen

Thats after 1 day!

Tonight is already approaching that :eek:

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

min so far minus 9.1c Gurteen

Thats after 1 day!

Tonight is already approaching that :eek:

Its -10 in mullingar on the 11 pm report.

pauldry

how low did it go n met?

thetonynator

Totally irrelevant IMT for the first 2 days of december is -3.86.

:pac:

waterways

pauldry wrote: »

how low did it go n met?

Look here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69360560&postcount=14

Sponge Bob

-10.8 up to Midnight in Mullingar, now stay there willya

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

M.T. Cranium

It will drop, I saw -12 C at Oak Park during my late night forecast prep (well it's late night for you, not me). Not sure what hour that was, 0200-0400. I also saw -15 C at Carlow on the IWN network (not part of our official base).

And then there's the matter of the next cold spell and the one after that and ... well, good luck if you went mild this month.

waterways

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It will drop, I saw -12 C at Oak Park during my late night forecast prep (well it's late night for you, not me). Not sure what hour that was, 0200-0400. I also saw -15 C at Carlow on the IWN network (not part of our official base).

And then there's the matter of the next cold spell and the one after that and ... well, good luck if you went mild this month.

You are right.
But you haven't clicked on my link above to Villain's posting.

Sponge Bob

-12.9 in Oak Park 04 Dec, drat


One of the "climatological" stations , Mt Juliet (see page 10 of that link) , recorded -16.4 not very far away from there ) Mt Juliet held the record in January 2010 as well, -16.3. However it does not count for the competitions on Boards save as a special question by MT maybe

That is unlikely to be bet this month in my opinion, either the Oak Park or the Mt Juliet numbers

thetonynator

Sponge Bob wrote: »

-12.9 in Oak Park 04 Dec, drat


One of the "climatological" stations , Mt Juliet (see page 10 of that link) , recorded -16.4 not very far away from there ) Mt Juliet held the record in January 2010 as well, -16.3. However it does not count for the competitions on Boards save as a special question by MT maybe

That is unlikely to be bet this month in my opinion, either the Oak Park or the Mt Juliet numbers

I wouldn't count it out yet, its only the 4th!! we could have another ecord spell yet!!!

pauldry

browsing through met stations data for the month and none of the imt stations have a positive avg

find it quite confusing trying to calculate averages from minus figures for some reason

however unless theres a heatwave after midmonth it looks like the final IMT for December will be 1 or 2c at best eeeek

Im gone cr*p at this

M.T. Cranium

The mean for the first four days of the month was a sporty -2.7 C.

If the current GFS run is near being accurate, I would estimate this figure will soar all the way to about 0.1 C by the 14th, after which it could come drifting back down again. That's being fairly generous to any possible warming tendencies some of which may get negated on the spot by snow cover feedback at night.

thetonynator

Hmmm. . . Looks like 3 degrees was being pessimistic!

M.T. Cranium

I think this month's contest could probably be renamed the Twelve Stages of Denial ... ranging from the modest to the extreme.

So far I've been really impressed by the similarity between the IMT and the CET, for example in November, the difference was 0.1 C and I suspect even less before rounding.

What that tells me is that the historical CET is probably a good indication of conditions in Ireland before there were records available, in historic winters like 1684 and 1740. Based on that, I would say that a month at -4 C is about the climatic extreme for the IMT and if we get an inversion cold spell in the otherwise mild interval and then back into this deep freeze, who knows where this month could end up. It's all so dependent on snow cover, that seems to create a 3-5 degree drop in mean temperatures for colder months. Without this snow cover the current IMT would probably be about 0-1 deg C.

thetonynator

-2.9 for the first 6 days . . .drop on yesterday!!!

What is strange is how much of an effect this cold spell is having on the IMT for the whole year, which is dropping quite quickly and is now at 9.24.

Might have made some mistakes here, but the average for the full year seems to be 9.28, which would mean that we are already below average for the year with most of what seems to be a cold december still to come.

pauldry

I should go with what my website says and not my head

5.8c?? what was I thinking.

Maybe therell be a heatwave:rolleyes:


Even if there was, December is in such negative equity due to mild weather austerity measures in Budget 2011 and the universal social freeze.;)