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December 2010 forecast contest

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135

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    #62
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After seven days:

    IMT -2.6 C

    precip at 63% as eastern stations above normal, west mainly dry.

    sunshine at 199% despite Casement and Dublin being below normal.


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    #63
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    We should have another bonus question....:P

    When will IMT rise above zero (If at all :eek:)


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    #64
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Possibility of the min being broken again tonight maybe? A slight possibility anyway, oak park at -9 at 7pm.


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    #65
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Ooh aah, I saw a 9.2 at Malin Head in the Friday reports ... will that stand up? I wasn't on line this afternoon your time, maybe it was eclipsed today.

    The running precip is falling off to about 40% now but as we've seen in various other months, one big week near the end can wreck any low figure. The sunshine is drifting back towards 150% now, I would estimate.

    The IMT will soon be positive at this rate (briefly). :cool:


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    #66
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Is it just me MT or does 2010 seem to have been very sunny?

    None of my weather stations have sun measuring facility on them but every time I drive Im blinded and last year I wasnt.

    Rainfall of 5mm(December 2010) is all I have for december in Sligo so far but that excludes snow coz me pesky rain gauge doesnt measure that. The same thing happened last year.

    Hope that you can continue this monthly competition going in 2011. Its great crack. This and Fantasy Football are the two reasons I get up in the morning ... nearly:)


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    #67
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Nearly the reasons you get up, or the reasons you nearly get up?! :P :P


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    #68
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It has indeed been a sunny year relative to average ... only July so far has failed to break average (at 73%) and September managed a modest 104%, otherwise every month has been in the range of 120-150 per cent. I would estimate the running surplus is about 25% of the annual total. :)


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    #69
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Nearly the reasons you get up, or the reasons you nearly get up?! :P :P

    me secrets out. sh*t ! :)


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    #70
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭pauldry


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    It has indeed been a sunny year relative to average ... only July so far has failed to break average (at 73%) and September managed a modest 104%, otherwise every month has been in the range of 120-150 per cent. I would estimate the running surplus is about 25% of the annual total. :)


    Cool so I wasnt just imagining it. I might nearly get up so.:)


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    #71
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sorry for not updating in a while guys but for now current IMT on -1.5c.

    Top 5 coldest days in the IMT zone in 2010:

    1. January 9th: Daily IMT of -5.8c
    2. January 8th: Daily IMT of -5.6c
    3. Decmeber 2nd: Daily IMT of -4.5c.
    4. January 7th: Daily IMT of -4.4c
    5. December 8th: Daily IMT of -4.2c


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    #72
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Ooh aah, I saw a 9.2 at Malin Head in the Friday reports ... will that stand up? I wasn't on line this afternoon your time, maybe it was eclipsed today.

    Valentia reached 10.2 yesterday.


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    #73
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    boo-yah!!!

    we broke 10 -- some of us may get some points now. :D


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    #74
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Weird month where it looks like the min will be further below 0 than the max is above 0. . :P


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    #75
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After fourteen days, the IMT still sits at -0.8 C and looks to take a bit of a tumble again soon. Remarkable anomaly in the making here, bring out the mercy rule yet again.

    Rainfall (precip) this past seven days has been 4% of normal which drags down the old average to 32% at present. Boatloads of snow and rain will now be required to verify most of our guesses. That's not all bad, of course, because some forecast models show exactly that.

    Sunshine continues to sprint ahead at 173% maintaining a good margin for the month now at 186% of normal -- a totally cloudy finish will therefore bring that home near normal. A cloudy second half like 50% would bring the month home near 120% so I feel that's the lowest figure likely to verify.


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    #76
    Welsh Wizard
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Welsh Wizard


    What do the experts on here think of this....

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/weather/cold-snap-specials


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    #77
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Homolumo and myself went in yesterday for the colder than -6 option when it was priced 5/1, now it's 11/8. What does that tell you?

    Anyone who buys the bets milder than zero is basically donating to charity on that table.

    Would advise that hedged bets (bet something for the -4 to -6, and a second bet for the coldest) seem like easy money combined at this point, but like they say here, always wager within your comfort range, don't try to make rent on a bet.

    The white Christmas bets from earlier may all pay off if the ECM is right, the only variable seeming uncertain is whether any precip would fall on the day, but if it does, some should be snow (Ireland/UK).


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    #78
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Homolumo and myself went in yesterday for the colder than -6 option when it was priced 5/1, now it's 11/8. What does that tell you?

    Anyone who buys the bets milder than zero is basically donating to charity on that table.

    Would advise that hedged bets (bet something for the -4 to -6, and a second bet for the coldest) seem like easy money combined at this point, but like they say here, always wager within your comfort range, don't try to make rent on a bet.

    The white Christmas bets from earlier may all pay off if the ECM is right, the only variable seeming uncertain is whether any precip would fall on the day, but if it does, some should be snow (Ireland/UK).

    A few others got on just in time too. This morning about 9 or so, it was 3/1 for lower than -6.


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    #79
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    I think this cold spell puts my chances of topping the year on ice, quite litterally... which brings me to the pain-pleasure balance... loose the year competition to get a huge dose of cold and snow! Hmmm... BRING ON DA SNOW!!! :D


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    #80
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    boo-yah!!!

    we broke 10 -- some of us may get some points now. :D

    Did someone say 10.2c would be the montly high ???


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    #81
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    You did ... might hold up at this rate. The IMT is a real trainwreck at this point. :eek:


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    #82
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Annual IMT at 9.02 looks set to drop below 9 before the end of the year. Quite a cool year overall!!!


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    #83
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Chart graphing the Demember IMT up to midnight 17th:

    139943.jpg

    Has yet to reach into postive territory and remains even colder than at this stage last year. Current IMT value on -0.2c. At this stage last year, it was on +5.2c That is over a 5.0c difference!



    Data source:
    Met Eireann


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    #84
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Ballyhaise showing -9c at 18:30 hours. I feel that the Mount Juliet/Thomastown 16c+ record may yet be bet...but in the North Midlands not the south midlands.

    The 6 o c news predicted a low of -10c thereabouts for the state overnight.


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    #85
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,514 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I realize Castlederg is not in contest territory but they never got above -10 C today and the current reading there is about -15 C. This shows the potential for Ballyhaise to reach a very low figure tonight if it stays clear, as well as Mullingar and possibly even Finner Camp and Knock. We shall see.

    Also there are three or four more nights of potentially very low readings somewhere in Ireland.


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    #86
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Ballyhaise showing -9c at 18:30 hours. I feel that the Mount Juliet/Thomastown 16c+ record may yet be bet...but in the North Midlands not the south midlands.

    The 6 o c news predicted a low of -10c thereabouts for the state overnight.


    Won't be beaten in Mt. Juliet anyway, only -4 here.

    Edit: Ballyhaise is at -10 at 19.00


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    #87
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I feel that if you are going to set a record low temperature over the next while that the coldest place in Ireland, for the record, really should be that station called "Boyle" :cool: ( the actual unit must be out in Lough Key Forest Park)

    WebClimMap1.gif


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    #88
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    mullingar looks like the best chance now, -10 at 10 pm, ballyhaise up to -6.


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    #89
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭John mac


    BALLYHAISE -13 @ 23:00


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    #90
    MadDogGreener
    Registered Users Posts: 340 ✭✭MadDogGreener


    Welsh Wizard wrote: »
    What do the experts on here think of this....

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/weather/cold-snap-specials

    This bet should pay out now shouldnt it? Its disappeared from the paddy power website, but my betslip says "Lower than 6"/"Lowest temp in Dublin week ending 27th Dec". It was -9 at the airport this morning. And AFAIR, they are using wunderground as the metric.


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    #91
    mountjuliet
    Registered Users Posts: 20 ✭mountjuliet


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Ballyhaise showing -9c at 18:30 hours. I feel that the Mount Juliet/Thomastown 16c+ record may yet be bet...but in the North Midlands not the south midlands.

    The 6 o c news predicted a low of -10c thereabouts for the state overnight.

    Apparently it was beat overnight, Castlederg in Co Tyrone recorded a temperature of -18C overnight and the temperature in Foxford, Co Mayo dropped to -17.2C. Mount Juliet's -16.8 is moved to 3rd place.

    Wouldn't be surprised if we get some snow here in Mount Juliet in the next 48 hours.


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