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THE SNOW RETURNS!
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Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,503 CMod ✭✭✭✭
Join Date:Posts: 8117
Next weeks possibility of returning wintry conditions is as strong as ever . . . people should be aware of that.
M.T. Cranium wrote: »Folks, use this mild spell and the open conditions (even when it turns a bit colder early next week, it won't be very wintry as such) to get yourselves well prepared, because I think a real blast of winter is coming back with a vengeance around the 16th or 17th, and here's what I just posted on another forum:
I think the eventual outcome will be closer to GFS than ECM in the day 8 to 12 time frame, but taken together it shows the potential in this situation for a massive arctic outbreak with a cyclonic disturbance embedded. I would take that as the main theme and given the energy peak at 20-21 Dec, a plausible outcome would be for cold to sweep south, create a vast pool of sub-freezing air mass, then create a storm at the maritime boundary somewhere west of France that would try to move east along the southern boundary of the cold air mass at that time. Could spell snowstorm or even blizzard potential for the UK and Ireland around that time frame, and as for any push back of mild air afterwards, that's likely down to the GFS tendency to try to return to zonal default. The signal is so persistent and so strong (and so well-timed with the retrograde index peak on 20 Dec from my research) that I have to say, word to the wise, there could be a very disruptive period ahead from about Thursday 16th on, use these mild and open days while you have them especially if you're in a location or situation that is prone to travel disruptions.
Just to give boards readers some extra thoughts on this, the models at day 8 and beyond can only be taken as general indicators. Some of the details especially the location and intensity of actual storm systems, often come into focus only by about day 4-5. This is why I try to blend my research with the model output in forecasting, because on a statistical basis, the research is actually more likely to verify in gross terms than the model output at day 8 and beyond. Now there's quite a difference in the ECM and GFS at present, but they share the common theme of massive retrogression (that being the westward shift of high pressure next week) and large-scale cold outflow from the arctic towards Europe. If I blend that general foundation and take some of the shaping of each model, then factor in my research data, I see every possibility of winter storm conditions developing some time during the period and most likely around 20-21 Dec but certainly within the larger time frame of 18-23 Dec. As to any milder push back around Christmas, that so far is only based on the inevitable tendency of the GFS to start returning to default values -- you can pretty much sense as a weather watcher that the massive cold outbreak on the 18z run is being slowly dissolved into some artificial zero-anomaly grid, nature wouldn't just bring south all that potent cold air and have it decay over a five day period, it's much more likely to lead to active frontal boundary dramatics of some kind, especially with the major energy peak so conveniently timed.
Bastardi: Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold
Could get interesting . . . 0 -
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parker kent wrote: »Bigger fine, bigger incentive to bring it back. Somebody might see a fine of a few cent and think "Sure it is only a few cent". But with a higher fine, it is more likely people will want to avoid it. Common sense really.
Obviously some people will always bring it back (or renew) to avoid a fine. I never had a library fine in a public library or in UCD. But not everybody thinks like that.Also, I've held onto a book after it was due and couldn't be renewed before, because the fines for a week was cheaper than buying it, and i needed that book.I remember i rented 'The Wedding Singer' video from Movie Magic and lost it so i had to pay them £80
I wouldn't mind but they wouldn't give me a proper case incase i found itfluorescence wrote: ȣ80! You could have bought loads of copies of the movie for that! Bit excessive...oh be goda.sounds like were going to have a "the day after tomorrow" situation during exams. think ill start burning the books in the library now.
speaking of which, over heard a fire nearly broke out on the second floor:eek:. . .I don't think so, unfortunately. Building are usually closed on Sundays and AFAIK its only the library that opens coming up to exams on sundays. I stand to be corrected, however.For some reason I can only imagine that being said in a robotic voice...
I think I've been spending too much time in the library. I need to start socialising with people, not books.
And Now Back To The Snow 0 -
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Exactly, unfortunately UCD can't control the weather...
*Shakes Fist*
Anyway, the forecast for Dublin:
Tonight
Cold tonight with frost in a few places and some fog patches. Any frost and fog clearing in the early morning as cloud and winds increase. Lowest temperatures of 1 to 3 in the early night.
Tomorrow
Breezy tomorrow with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle becoming widespread in the early morning. The rain and drizzle will clear during the early afternoon to colder weather and scattered wintry showers with snow. Highest temperatures 6 to 9 degrees in the morning but becoming bitterly cold in the afternoon.
I note the lack of snow
0 -
*Shakes Fist*
Anyway, the forecast for Dublin:
Tonight
Cold tonight with frost in a few places and some fog patches. Any frost and fog clearing in the early morning as cloud and winds increase. Lowest temperatures of 1 to 3 in the early night.
Tomorrow
Breezy tomorrow with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle becoming widespread in the early morning. The rain and drizzle will clear during the early afternoon to colder weather and scattered wintry showers with snow. Highest temperatures 6 to 9 degrees in the morning but becoming bitterly cold in the afternoon.
I note the lack of snow
Once again i shall laugh at Met Eireann and there lack of further potential in the weather in advanced..
Heres a real forecast for ya.
ONIGHT ... Cloudy and relatively mild with scattered outbreaks of light rain mostly after midnight, winds picking up gradually from a westerly direction to reach 20-30 mph, temperatures steady 2-4 C for most. Late tonight, turning very windy and much colder in north coast Ulster, with hail and snow showers spreading rapidly south to cover most of Ulster by sunrise, and some parts of north Connacht and north Leinster by 0800h. Snowfalls in this zone only 3-7 cms. Temperatures falling to -3 C inland, +1 C near coasts, in the north only.
THURSDAY ... Very windy and turning much colder from north to south. The milder air will remain in place for the morning in central counties and to mid-afternoon in the south. In all areas, a rapid change to much colder weather as winds shift from W 25-40 mph to NW 30-50 mph with higher gusts in Connacht. Earlier rain showers will change to hail, sleet and snow in a squally fashion with some thunder and lightning. Earlier snow in the north may intensify to heavy snow at times giving 10-15 cms locally there, while further south amounts will average 1-3 cms and a few spots may escape snow but nowhere is likely to escape icy roads by evening.
THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY ... Continuing windy and very cold with frequent squally showers of hail and snow, considerable accumulations possible but mostly in Ulster and Connacht, west Munster, and parts of north and west Leinster where amounts will average 5-10 cms and reach 15 cms locally. Highs for the day only -3 to -1 C in north (inland) and 2-4 C in southwest, 0-2 C in southeast and east. Some intervals of bright sun will also be hazardous because of glare off snow and ice at low sun angles. Roads becoming very treacherous in many counties but with highly variable conditions too, travel with care if you can't avoid travel.
WEEKEND ... Bitterly cold to start with some clearing late Friday night and lows generally -7 to -4 C but as low as -10 C in any northern valley locations under clear spots in the general overcast. Ice fog likely over central counties. Then snow likely to spread in or break out locally, heavier in the northeast at first, then becoming rather heavy in many areas, local accumulations of 5-15 cms both days, potential for near-blizzard or blizzard conditions with Dublin possibly near the higher snowfall zone that is likely to extend from about Meath to Laois and Tipps, but should emphasize that heavy snow could develop quite widely outside that zone too. Maximum snow accumulations could reach 20-30 cms. Some thunder-snow likely. Winds will increase at times to NE 20-40 mph blowing this snow around, in temperatures in the range of -2 to +1 C (could stay colder than that in parts of Ulster and inland Connacht).
MONDAY ... The above snowstorm to blizzard conditions may continue or may ease slowly, but in any case, there will be a lot of snow on the ground and temperatures near -1 C with potentially strong E to NE winds at times.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Some snow could continue in the south, and flurries or freezing drizzle will keep roads icy in many areas, but this could be a somewhat drier period with breaks in the overcast and very cold temperatures at night as a result, lows may fall to -8 C or lower, highs will remain in the range of -2 to +2 C.
OUTLOOK ... I tend to discount any suggested warmings but there is a chance of milder weather around Christmas, however, I think there is an equal chance of a further period of snow with the mild air held back to the southwest.
For those with an interest in weather in the U.K. or northern France for their travel plans, it seems quite possible that the snow in Ireland will break out over large parts of the U.K. as well, and may extend at times into northern France. Parts of central England are likely to see the worst of the snow there, 20-40 cms potential. Eastern Scotland may see some snow, but central Scotland and northern England could see bitterly cold overnight lows during the period, as low as -20 C in some places, but generally -10 C or lower.
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/severe-weather-alert-issued-15-dec-2010.html0 -
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