Cold Spell Forecasts and Synoptic Forecast Discussion - 26/11/1020 onwards

munsterlegend

Hi Wolfe just regard your earlier chart, what decaying low are you referring to?

WolfeIRE

i think there should be a weather alert in place for kerry and cork

it has been overlooked elsewhere and I believe that it is highly likely that some disruptive snowfall will affect these counties tonight

all models indicate that snow will sweep NW over waterford/cork border before tracking sw. it could dump quite a bit of snow in the south/southwest

WolfeIRE

munsterlegend wrote: »

Hi Wolfe just regard your earlier chart, what decaying low are you referring to?

take a look at any of the euro satellite's ML and you will see it track NW towards south coast

WolfeIRE

How little Wolfe ?? Wow 2 snowmageddons for him & he aint even 1 yet lol... Think ive ony had about 5 in my lifetime lol ( Jenzz)

he is great Jenzz:)

No snow for him yet this month though. Clare, Limerick and Cork have been left out of this snowmageddon snow far. Sledding on frost is not fun:)

Redsunset

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think there should be a weather alert in place for kerry and cork

it has been overlooked elsewhere and I believe that it is highly likely that some disruptive snowfall will affect these counties tonight

all models indicate that snow will sweep NW over waterford/cork border before tracking sw. it could dump quite a bit of snow in the south/southwest

YES there should be an alert.and this is shown very well on Hirlam precip model.

Also this afternoon could bode very well for Dublin with heavy precip.

These charts are doing very well.

Dublin hit



South west plastered

leahyl

As a percentage wolfeIRE how certain are you that cork city will see at least some of this snow?:) I don't want to get too excited!

WolfeIRE

HIRLAM also showing a band of snow sweeping west across the country on tuesday. further snow for the east and NW tomorrow as well.

Looks like things will be getting significantly worse before they get better

Joe Bastardi, where are you?

WolfeIRE

leahyl wrote: »

As a percentage wolfeIRE how certain are you that cork city will see at least some of this snow?:) I don't want to get too excited!

90% certain Leahyl.

10% relates to an unexpected shift in winds.

lucernarian

I think this afternoon could be a snowy one for much of Dublin. But the movement of the various LP systems seems to be always a bit more sluggish than the models suggest.

What are people's thoughts on the active front sliding through central Scotland? Is there anything to suggest that it will track a bit further south, which would more widely affect Ulster and Connaught? The latest models seem to have the upper low over Ireland slightly further east later in the afternoon, than the previous runs have.

joe199

WolfeIRE wrote: »

HIRLAM also showing a band of snow sweeping west across the country on tuesday. further snow for the east and NW tomorrow as well.

Looks like things will be getting significantly worse before they get better

Joe Bastardi, where are you?

:D!

ytareh

Highly enthusiastic lurker again as with last snow 'event'...!Great to get some reliable up to the moment advice from you weather guys n gals ...

Su Campu

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

Iancar29

Su Campu wrote: »

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

Dont be saying stuff like that!.... my nerves will be off the wall in excitement! ha:pac:

Eastcoastryan

Su Campu wrote: »

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

Man, that is post of the year right there!!!!!! :eek:

zara100

hi all

this is such a great forum i am addicted was just wondering will north tipp
get any snow at all thanks oops heading meant to read any snow sorry

opr

Su Campu wrote: »

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

Are you still on the drink from last night ? :pac:

Opr

Redsunset

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Man, that is post of the year right there!!!!!! :eek:

He's right just look at it on satellite spinning

Could be mega

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

su campu in ramping shocker:eek::p

oterra

A 'pants filing' event will occur in many locations with all this excitement!
:eek::eek:

lucernarian

Su Campu wrote: »

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

:eek:

I suppose some of the prerequisites are theoretically there, and the circulation is starting to pick up, but get a hold of yourself man! That's one ramp too far:P

Slimity

Su Campu wrote: »

Polar Low forming in the Irish Sea????!!!! Explosive development has taken place in the last hour or two, and latent heat release could warm the core enough to make it one by the time it reached the east coast. Could bring blizzard conditions to a lot of northern Leinster this afternoon. One to watch!!

Sounds great Su Campu. How about Southern leinster coasts this afternoon?

Timistry

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think there should be a weather alert in place for kerry and cork

it has been overlooked elsewhere and I believe that it is highly likely that some disruptive snowfall will affect these counties tonight

all models indicate that snow will sweep NW over waterford/cork border before tracking sw. it could dump quite a bit of snow in the south/southwest

Go on my son!!! Glad to see the SW might be getting in on the action. We had a pitiful 1/2in during the entire of last winter. Kerry is the worst possible place to be during a N or NE flow

Su Campu

I'm outside now and looking towards the south, blocking the sun, I can see what looks like diamond dust blowing in the wind. This is usually common below -20C but I can definitely see tiny glimmmering crystals reflecting the sun. Go outside and check it out!

nacho libre

according to the bbc precipitation chart it's going to be dry here for most of the week. of course an unexpected feature could pop up and makes its way here, but taking the precipitation chart at face value i'll have to wait till Friday's frontal snow event for any more snow.

Victor Meldrew

I'm about 4K from the sea, on a north eastern slope, we got another 5cm of lovely powdery stuff ("Nicest Snow seen in years") last night . -4 at 9am.

Here's the thing, there have been clouds stuck in dublin bay / off Dun laoghaire all morning. Bright sunshine here in Cabinteely.

The radar on Met.ie shows nothing moving anywhere. do we really see anything moving inland?

NickDrake

Getting reeady for the drive up from Mallow to Dublin. Fingers crossed.

Will Dublin get more snow tonight?

Timistry

gbee wrote: »

No. See we are the lost city of Atlantis, and the ancients have a protective dome over us, it has yet to fail. You noticed how snow fell as close as Ballycotton and some deep snow in Kerry ~ this is not a quirk of nature, it's the ancients protective dome over Cork, it has failed briefly two or three times in 55 years.

Watch stargate much?:D

ffarrell7

BBC is not reliable....never was. Stick with met.ie - Irish weather stations for Irish weather. They were forcesating some snow for London yesterday and it was 5 degrees there and not a flake...rarely snows in that city anyway.

delw

Su Campu wrote: »

I'm outside now and looking towards the south, blocking the sun, I can see what looks like diamond dust blowing in the wind. This is usually common below -20C but I can definitely see tiny glimmmering crystals reflecting the sun. Go outside and check it out!

su i posted something about 3 last night saying similar,looked foggy&little crystal like particals blowing,was wondering what it was

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Is that another band of snow for Dublin/wicklow aswell Wolfe?

yes slimity. it will continue to develop out at sea before pushing west. Def more snow on the way

by the way, analysis of yesterday's snowfall now on IWO
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/11/analysis-of-saturdays-snowfall-in.html[/QUOTE]

that's an excllent article. i really like the technical explanation of events at Belmullet.