6.7 % rate for the bailout.

Scofflaw

mike65 wrote: »

The deal has been done apparently and there will be an EU Finance ministers metting tomorrow. One can only suspect the worst deal has been struck if the have got this done 24 hours before they really needed it done.

Finally, the dust will settle, and there will be a brief period before whatever has been agreed is spun in a million different directions to form a new cloud of dust. At least these days the actual details are likely to be available online somewhere pretty quickly.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Hayte

Phoenix Park wrote: »

Oh come on....it's cheaper than most credit cards!


Just

You ever tried to escape a credit card debt where the balance + interest per month is more than you earn in a month? You need to sell stuff so that whats coming in every month is more than whats going out every month. If you keep doing that until you have nothing left that you can sell for two s**ts then I believe the only way out is paddle + dingy + try to make it to Cuba.

RichardAnd

Inquitus wrote: »

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

I've totted up similar figures myself and I've come to much the same conclusion. We have a mountain of debt to climb and really, I don't think anyone really believes we'll reach the top of it. What I see happening is either long term debt servitude or a default and I'm not sure which would be worse.

We must remember that the EU aren't there to help us, if they wanted to help Ireland, they would have fixed the interest rate low so what we could pay off the loan and not the interest. It is blatantly obvious that the aim of the Europeans is to put us into into economic stagnation where we can be kept under control and never jeopardise the Euro zone again.

Granted, we are guilty in this in that we got ourselves into this mess but sadly, it is the case that, once again, the unlucky few pay for the sins of the masses.

Hayte

Or the unlucky masses pay for the sins of the lucky few.

Brussels Sprout

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

FG/Lab 1.08
FG/FF 23.00
FF/Lab 11.00
FF/FG/Lab 15.00
FG/Lab/Green 17.00
Technocratic Government 21.00
FG/FF 23.00
FG Minority Government 26.00
Lab/SF/Green 29.00
FF/Green/SF 41.00
FG/Green 41.00
FG Majority Government 41.00
FG/Lab/SF 51.00
Labour Minority 51.00
FF/SF 67.00
FF Minority Government 101.00


http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?aff_id=60001&ev_oc_grp_ids=46674

Intriguing

Festus

kaiser sauze wrote: »

No matter what way I scribble them down, I can't add them up to €460Bn. :eek:

Sorry, can't find the BBC source - found this though

http://chartingfinancials.wordpress.com/2010/05/06/europes-web-of-debt-who-owes-who-and-how-much/

Hayte

^^^ Thats like the axis of fiscal irresponsibility right there. We are probably better off forming an alliance and declaring war or something.

Bob_Latchford

you might be onto something, reminds me of opening credits to Dads Army

Hayte

^ I thought of Dad's Army too when I saw that picture.

adomino

gollem_1975 wrote: »

+1

and unlike Ireland not every other country in the EU welcomed people from the accession states into their countries either.

+10

Hayte

Sorry, how did Ireland welcome people from the accession states? Did I miss something?

Festus

Something funny in the chart...

We're owed from
Italy 46
Spain 30
Greece 8.5
Portugal 5.4

Total 90.4

Ok, we owe them some and its in dollars but it looks like the bailout facility is designed to negate only what they owe us and we own them.
It doesn't touch what we owe to Britain, Germany and France.

Looks like Greece's bail out does cover almost their full indebtedness and supposedly is noting to do with Mr Windsor being Greekish or Mrs Windsor being Germanic.

or am I just reading too much into it

Festus

kaiser sauze wrote: »

No matter what way I scribble them down, I can't add them up to €460Bn. :eek:

Danny boy reckons on €340bn - see National debt figure thread

Sand

@Hayte

^^^ Thats like the axis of fiscal irresponsibility right there. We are probably better off forming an alliance and declaring war or something.

Dunno if military alliances with Italy have ever led to great success.

Sorry, how did Ireland welcome people from the accession states? Did I miss something?

IIRC, when the EU absorped the Eastern European states back in 2004, many of the Western European countries feared a mass invasion of Polish plumbers. Several of the EU 15 put in place temporary bans on the free movement of people from these countries to ward off the feared human wave. Ireland did not, along with the UK and Sweden IIRC.

Hence Ireland relatively speaking had a fairly calm attitude to the accession states vs. the great fear which animated other member states.

gizmo555

Hayte wrote: »

Sorry, how did Ireland welcome people from the accession states? Did I miss something?

We allowed them unrestricted rights to move to Ireland and work here when their countries joined the EU. Many other countries put in place temporary restrictions, usually for a period of about seven years, IIRC.

Dannyboy83

Festus wrote: »

Danny boy reckons on €340bn - see National debt figure thread

Those are Brian Lucey's figures; See the Vincent Browne show here where he states it:
http://tv3.ie/shows.php?request=tonightwithvincentbrowne&tv3_preview=&video=29656

Mister men

It was a nice country whilst it lasted.

Kev_ps3

Im glad its 6.7%, wish it was higher to be honest. Now we can have a default;)

Bob_Latchford

was watching bbc news 24 last night and they went to economist in New York who had worked for IMF in the past. (sorry for sketchy details)

He reckoned it would be unlikely Ireland pay more than Greece.

Scofflaw

Sand wrote: »

@Hayte


Dunno if military alliances with Italy have ever led to great success.



IIRC, when the EU absorped the Eastern European states back in 2004, many of the Western European countries feared a mass invasion of Polish plumbers. Several of the EU 15 put in place temporary bans on the free movement of people from these countries to ward off the feared human wave. Ireland did not, along with the UK and Sweden IIRC.

Hence Ireland relatively speaking had a fairly calm attitude to the accession states vs. the great fear which animated other member states.

Part of the deal for accession was that the Member States didn't have to open their labour markets to the new members until 2011 at the outside. Neither Ireland nor the UK availed of the option, other countries did for varying periods. In Ireland's case it seems to have been largely a move to expand the labour market, which had already hit full employment at that point. To be fair, the majority of Irish people were pretty welcoming, although there was always a vocal anti-immigration brigade.

cordially,
Scofflaw

doc_17

We had a lot of people calling for the IMF to come in and I'm wondering if they are the same ones that are now calling for the default!

gonedrinking

Does there not need to be a vote in the dail about whether to agree to the bailout terms and conditions? Surely such a monumental decision for Ireland can't just be decided by the taoiseach alone?

ArtSmart

Ok. I'm gonna guess 5.4 %

The speil will be that the monies will be in three sections.

the IMF money first at IMF rate

then money at EU rate

then money from stability fund rate

no bond holder burning, though some 'restructuring' down the road hinted at.

Edit: if it's 5.8 (my other guess) it will included some time scale speil will be pushed to suggest it wont be for long - 'flexible rate' speil.

Bob_Latchford

Reckon it will be hard to understand the deal. Alot of emphasis will be on not knowing the amount drawn down and that it is just a facility etc.

just more opacity

RichardAnd

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Im glad its 6.7%, wish it was higher to be honest. Now we can have a default;)

Be careful what you wish for.

Butch Cassidy

gonedrinking wrote: »

Does there not need to be a vote in the dail about whether to agree to the bailout terms and conditions? Surely such a monumental decision for Ireland can't just be decided by the taoiseach alone?

Nope apparently not.

Bob_Latchford

Some interesting reading

http://www.humanrights.ie/index.php/2010/11/22/imf-conditionality-the-irish-constitution-and-the-need-for-a-dail-vote-on-the-bailout-agreement/

On Friday, the Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan commented that the Government does not “normally have to seek approval of parliament to borrow funds”, and, while noting the unusual nature of the events, stressed that he was seeking legal advice on the necessity of the vote.

The involvement of the IMF provoked questions in some quarters regarding the applicability of Article 29.5.2 of the Constitution to any agreement between Ireland and the IMF.
Article 29.5.2 provides that:

“The State shall not be bound by any international agreement involving a charge upon public funds unless the terms of the agreement shall have been approved by Dáil Éireann”.

you would have to be a laywer to unpick it I reckon

Bob_Latchford

My 2c, its clearly against the spirit of the constitution.

If FF had a clear majority it would be put to the vote, since they dont they will try without.

zig

This is interesting, I guess the words "shall have have been approved by Dail Eireann" could mean anything, i.e. The two Brians approving it is enough surely if you're talking in terms of the constitution? I don't know, as mentioned, you would need a lawyer.

zig

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

Some interesting reading

http://www.humanrights.ie/index.php/2010/11/22/imf-conditionality-the-irish-constitution-and-the-need-for-a-dail-vote-on-the-bailout-agreement/





you would have to be a laywer to unpick it I reckon

I think this post is important and this deserves its own thread.