6.7 % rate for the bailout.

Rubik.

ardmacha wrote: »

FG have credible candidates in pretty much every constituency. Labour have problems in regions further from Dublin and can lose votes to SF, whereas FG lose few votes to SF.

I would agree that FG will be the larger of the two parties, but we will have more equal coalition partners than we have had before.

Scofflaw

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I am rooting for a full FG majority.

Scofflaw - any particular reason why would you prefer to see Ruari Quinn involved?
And why do you want a Labour minority (or it simply that you think FG cannot have a full majority?)

I think a full FG majority is unlikely - not impossible, but unlikely - because they haven't done as well out of FF's discomfiture as might be expected. There are plenty of people who won't vote FF but who won't be able to bring themselves to vote FG. I'll be surprised if Labour do as well as the polls might suggest, and I'll also be surprised if Fianna Fáil do as badly as the polls might suggest. It's impossible not to recall that 2007 was supposed to be a Fine Gael landslide - I just don't think that anybody but Fine Gael think that the majority of Irish people will ever vote for Fine Gael. That's no reflection on Fine Gael's policy or people, I hasten to add.

As for Ruairi Quinn, I liked him as Minister for Finance under the Rainbow government. I am somewhat leery of a large Labour element in a coalition, given that there will be money on tap from the IMF/EFSF which could be used to prop up CS spending, and I tend to think of Quinn as someone who is somewhat less likely to go down that road.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Donal Og O Baelach

ardmacha wrote: »

FG have credible candidates in pretty much every constituency. Labour have problems in regions further from Dublin and can lose votes to SF, whereas FG lose few votes to SF.

Two words to prove this point beyond any doubt - "Frank" and "McBrearty".

gollem_1975

Are the bookies giving odds on FG going into gov with FF after the next election ?

gollem_1975

dlofnep wrote: »

Speak for yourself. I treated Polish people just fine.

+1

and unlike Ireland not every other country in the EU welcomed people from the accession states into their countries either.

Bob_Latchford

gollem_1975 wrote: »

Are the bookies giving odds on FG going into gov with FF after the next election ?

FG/Lab 1.08
FG/FF 23.00
FF/Lab 11.00
FF/FG/Lab 15.00
FG/Lab/Green 17.00
Technocratic Government 21.00
FG/FF 23.00
FG Minority Government 26.00
Lab/SF/Green 29.00
FF/Green/SF 41.00
FG/Green 41.00
FG Majority Government 41.00
FG/Lab/SF 51.00
Labour Minority 51.00
FF/SF 67.00
FF Minority Government 101.00


http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?aff_id=60001&ev_oc_grp_ids=46674

jmayo

Scofflaw wrote: »

The difference is that it's clearly marked as what it is - speculation based on rumour! I'm awfully sorry if it's insufficiently criticial of the current government for you to like it, though.

What you reckon I would be critical of the "government" ? :eek:

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'd say that's possible too - as I said, I'm in the pretty happy position of knowing that more or less whatever happens, my preferred party won't be forming part of the next government, and will be lucky to return anyone to the Dáil at all. I can't see why any of the Greens would leak it, though, whereas I can see why Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael might.

How you can still prefer the greens is beyond me ?
Even if they espouse some of your enviromental goals, they promptly sold some of them out, made a bags of the country and will never get a sniff of power again.
Well the greens performance this week did not make sense either so who knows if one of them leaked this ?

Scofflaw wrote: »

If you're under the impression that I'm trying to "pin" this on Fine Gael, I'm afraid you're entirely mistaken again. Currently, I'd prefer a strong Fine Gael-led coalition with a minority Labour component - about the relative strengths of the 1990's Rainbow Coalition - to any form of the reverse, although I'll be putting my number 2 to Ruairi Quinn despite that, since if there is to be a strong Labour component I'd want to see Ruairi Quinn in there.

Agreed IMHO Ruairi Quinn was good in his portfolios.
And Labour did very well in the governments of the 90s.
Only gripe I have of their time in government is they politised the civil service to a degree and they invented a new class of advisors in order to keep an eye on their ff colation partners.
Of course ff and bertie took this to new levels. :rolleyes:

Scofflaw wrote: »

Out of interest, then, are you rooting for Fine Gael?

Yes they would be my favoured party, as you know damm well.
And before some one starts about just wanting a Mayoman for taoiseach, politics is full of Mayo people.
Some are good and some are awful sleeveen gobsh**es.
BTW I don't think Kenny, Rabitte or Stagg are in the latter.
The flynns and creighton would be.

I have always given Labour no.2, but this time Gilmore scares me.
I would have preferred Rabitte, Quinn or Howlin was in charge.
Gilmore sadly strikes me as a principled and honest version of bertie, who wants to appeal to everyone.

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I am rooting for a full FG majority.

Agreed it would be best for the country.

Rubik. wrote: »

Whatever happens in the next General Election, there will not be a FG majority. John Drennan produced a supplement in The Sunday Independent, last month, with his seat by seat analysis of the outcome of the upcoming election.

His verdict - Labour 56, FG 54 and Fianna Fail 42. He may be wrong and it was pre-IMF so FF could well lose more seats, but the most likely outcome is a coalition of two parties of more or less the same size. Which is something we have never had before.

Jaysus dreenan the fanboy of old cj haughey.

Scofflaw wrote: »

I think a full FG majority is unlikely - not impossible, but unlikely - because they haven't done as well out of FF's discomfiture as might be expected. There are plenty of people who won't vote FF but who won't be able to bring themselves to vote FG. I'll be surprised if Labour do as well as the polls might suggest, and I'll also be surprised if Fianna Fáil do as badly as the polls might suggest. It's impossible not to recall that 2007 was supposed to be a Fine Gael landslide - I just don't think that anybody but Fine Gael think that the majority of Irish people will ever vote for Fine Gael. That's no reflection on Fine Gael's policy or people, I hasten to add.

As for Ruairi Quinn, I liked him as Minister for Finance under the Rainbow government. I am somewhat leery of a large Labour element in a coalition, given that there will be money on tap from the IMF/EFSF which could be used to prop up CS spending, and I tend to think of Quinn as someone who is somewhat less likely to go down that road.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I hope you are wrong on ff.
I think there are ffers who just won't vote rather than vote for a "blueshirt".
Hell their house could be burning after being torched by biffo and even if Kenny was leading the firebrigade they wouldn't vote for him.
They would rather burn to death.
I am not sure if Quinn would be one of the ones sidelined by Gilmore in a coalition with FG.
I know it would depend on the numbers, but he might be considered by leadership to be too close to a FG mindset ?

Scofflaw

jmayo wrote:

Yes they would be my favoured party, as you know damm well.

I've never seen you say it, and I wouldn't ever assume! You might, as I do generally, prefer coalitions.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Butch Cassidy

Scofflaw wrote: »

Did he now...that's interesting. Would make a classic Fine Gael tactic, since the chance of it backfiring badly is quite high. There's a lot of short-term political capital in issuing large numbers to make the government look bad, but if the government shows up with a lower number, that can be painted as a win for the government. However, that depends on how long the negotiations take - if there's more than a week or two to go, the anger will settle another fraction of a percent against voting Fianna Fáil, and the relief will take too long to arrive for the release to backfire.

intrigued,
Scofflaw

I don't want to make any assumptions but it's very interesting that a few days after FG meet the IMF and the day before a protest (itself a day before the actual figure is announced) this figure comes out and instantly Fine Gael have someone on hand to make a response (Varadkar) but Noonan also there to give press release....


This figure came from somewhere. I don't believe RTE would make it up - our media's pretty rubbish and has setting the agenda and is not completely unbiased imo - but this number clearly came from somewhere.

Inquitus

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

Festus

Inquitus wrote: »

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

What if your figures are wrong and it is not 90bn but 200bn, 300bn or as I read on the BBC 460bn?
We owe the British banks 140bn alone in what is mostly consumer debt but by making the bank debts here soverign debt we have no real knowledge of how deep the debt is and if borrowed by the banks with interest the debt is growing daily.

Nor do we know what positions the banks trading arms held on derivatives or other market bets.

We can't get out of the hole.

We have to recognise that the hole is there and put barriers and warnings around it. Any attempt to fill that hole in is too dangerous. The only thing that will help us is debt forgiveness.

ardmacha

and unlike Ireland not every other country in the EU welcomed people from the accession states into their countries either.

Germany did not allow Poles work there. Ireland contributed to binding the EU together by profiding employment for so many Eastern European. There were some cases of abuse but by and large this has been a positive exerience. Which is why Ireland needs to build a broader EU coalition for setting policy.

We owe the British banks 140bn alone in what is mostly consumer debt

That's not the government's problem. We have enough trouble without guaranteeing consumer debts to foreign banks. The British will just print the lost money.

Festus

Butch Cassidy wrote: »

This figure came from somewhere. I don't believe RTE would make it up - our media's pretty rubbish and has setting the agenda and is not completely unbiased imo - but this number clearly came from somewhere.

The have to regain some credibility after their recent fiascos.

But then again I regard RTE as having comparable competence to our government.

Festus

ardmacha wrote: »

That's not the government's problem. We have enough trouble without guaranteeing consumer debts to foreign banks

But we already have. Much of Anglo's debt is developer loans or loans to their own staff and directors. Is that not consumer debt that the governemnt has bought?

Scofflaw

Festus wrote: »

But we already have. Much of Anglo's debt is developer loans or loans to their own staff and directors. Is that not consumer debt that the governemnt has bought?

I'm not sure that the very large figures claimed to be owed by our banks to other nations' banks are actually anything of the kind. The figure for "exposure of UK banks to Irish debt" certainly isn't just loans from UK banks to Irish banks - it contains a very large amount (more than half, afaik) of loans from UK banks to Irish businesses and developers, as well as mortgages. RBS' exposure, for example, is €62bn in loans to Irish customers, not Irish banks. And RBS is owned by the British taxpayer since their bailout.

Similarly, the "loans from German banks" figure of €130bn is denied by the German banks, who say that €100bn of that is money in Irish subsidiaries of German banks and on loan outside Ireland.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Mister men

Inquitus wrote: »

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

No i don't think we can. Also the figures presented are best case scenario yes?

kaiser sauze

Festus wrote: »

What if your figures are wrong and it is not 90bn but 200bn, 300bn or as I read on the BBC 460bn?
We owe the British banks 140bn alone in what is mostly consumer debt but by making the bank debts here soverign debt we have no real knowledge of how deep the debt is and if borrowed by the banks with interest the debt is growing daily.

Nor do we know what positions the banks trading arms held on derivatives or other market bets.

We can't get out of the hole.

We have to recognise that the hole is there and put barriers and warnings around it. Any attempt to fill that hole in is too dangerous. The only thing that will help us is debt forgiveness.

No matter what way I scribble them down, I can't add them up to €460Bn. :eek:

BehindTheScenes

jmayo wrote: »

Yes they would be my favoured party, as you know damm well.
And before some one starts about just wanting a Mayoman for taoiseach, politics is full of Mayo people.
Some are good and some are awful sleeveen gobsh**es.
BTW I don't think Kenny, Rabitte or Stagg are in the latter.
The flynns and creighton would be.



I think there are ffers who just won't vote rather than vote for a "blueshirt".
Hell their house could be burning after being torched by biffo and even if Kenny was leading the firebrigade they wouldn't vote for him.
They would rather burn to death.
I am not sure if Quinn would be one of the ones sidelined by Gilmore in a coalition with FG.
I know it would depend on the numbers, but he might be considered by leadership to be too close to a FG mindset ?

Disagree with you about Stagg based on what he did to his brother Francis. Rabitte and Kenny come across as pretty good in their own unique ways.

My Grandad is one of those FFers by the way. Enda Kenny or Eamon Gilmore could lead Ireland to glorious times in the next two years and they would still be a blue shirt c**t and a commie dog. I kid you not.

Shame.

mike65

The deal has been done apparently and there will be an EU Finance ministers metting tomorrow. One can only suspect the worst deal has been struck if the have got this done 24 hours before they really needed it done.

flynnlives

I can will imagine biffo and lendahand deep in that hole and the IMF/EU dudes shouting down to them "dig up guys, dig up!"

biffo and lenadahand: "yessir!"


Anyways before i emigrate something after the election im going to spend all my spare time making sure Fianna Failure get annihalited!
I have a few plans to hatch...

Expect to see the dirtiest election in years!!

Scofflaw

mike65 wrote: »

The deal has been done apparently and there will be an EU Finance ministers metting tomorrow. One can only suspect the worst deal has been struck if the have got this done 24 hours before they really needed it done.

Finally, the dust will settle, and there will be a brief period before whatever has been agreed is spun in a million different directions to form a new cloud of dust. At least these days the actual details are likely to be available online somewhere pretty quickly.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Hayte

Phoenix Park wrote: »

Oh come on....it's cheaper than most credit cards!


Just

You ever tried to escape a credit card debt where the balance + interest per month is more than you earn in a month? You need to sell stuff so that whats coming in every month is more than whats going out every month. If you keep doing that until you have nothing left that you can sell for two s**ts then I believe the only way out is paddle + dingy + try to make it to Cuba.

RichardAnd

Inquitus wrote: »

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

I've totted up similar figures myself and I've come to much the same conclusion. We have a mountain of debt to climb and really, I don't think anyone really believes we'll reach the top of it. What I see happening is either long term debt servitude or a default and I'm not sure which would be worse.

We must remember that the EU aren't there to help us, if they wanted to help Ireland, they would have fixed the interest rate low so what we could pay off the loan and not the interest. It is blatantly obvious that the aim of the Europeans is to put us into into economic stagnation where we can be kept under control and never jeopardise the Euro zone again.

Granted, we are guilty in this in that we got ourselves into this mess but sadly, it is the case that, once again, the unlucky few pay for the sins of the masses.

Hayte

Or the unlucky masses pay for the sins of the lucky few.

Brussels Sprout

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

FG/Lab 1.08
FG/FF 23.00
FF/Lab 11.00
FF/FG/Lab 15.00
FG/Lab/Green 17.00
Technocratic Government 21.00
FG/FF 23.00
FG Minority Government 26.00
Lab/SF/Green 29.00
FF/Green/SF 41.00
FG/Green 41.00
FG Majority Government 41.00
FG/Lab/SF 51.00
Labour Minority 51.00
FF/SF 67.00
FF Minority Government 101.00


http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?aff_id=60001&ev_oc_grp_ids=46674

Intriguing

Festus

kaiser sauze wrote: »

No matter what way I scribble them down, I can't add them up to €460Bn. :eek:

Sorry, can't find the BBC source - found this though

http://chartingfinancials.wordpress.com/2010/05/06/europes-web-of-debt-who-owes-who-and-how-much/

Hayte

^^^ Thats like the axis of fiscal irresponsibility right there. We are probably better off forming an alliance and declaring war or something.

Bob_Latchford

you might be onto something, reminds me of opening credits to Dads Army

Hayte

^ I thought of Dad's Army too when I saw that picture.

adomino

gollem_1975 wrote: »

+1

and unlike Ireland not every other country in the EU welcomed people from the accession states into their countries either.

+10

Hayte

Sorry, how did Ireland welcome people from the accession states? Did I miss something?

Festus

Something funny in the chart...

We're owed from
Italy 46
Spain 30
Greece 8.5
Portugal 5.4

Total 90.4

Ok, we owe them some and its in dollars but it looks like the bailout facility is designed to negate only what they owe us and we own them.
It doesn't touch what we owe to Britain, Germany and France.

Looks like Greece's bail out does cover almost their full indebtedness and supposedly is noting to do with Mr Windsor being Greekish or Mrs Windsor being Germanic.

or am I just reading too much into it

Festus

kaiser sauze wrote: »

No matter what way I scribble them down, I can't add them up to €460Bn. :eek:

Danny boy reckons on €340bn - see National debt figure thread

Sand

@Hayte

^^^ Thats like the axis of fiscal irresponsibility right there. We are probably better off forming an alliance and declaring war or something.

Dunno if military alliances with Italy have ever led to great success.

Sorry, how did Ireland welcome people from the accession states? Did I miss something?

IIRC, when the EU absorped the Eastern European states back in 2004, many of the Western European countries feared a mass invasion of Polish plumbers. Several of the EU 15 put in place temporary bans on the free movement of people from these countries to ward off the feared human wave. Ireland did not, along with the UK and Sweden IIRC.

Hence Ireland relatively speaking had a fairly calm attitude to the accession states vs. the great fear which animated other member states.

gizmo555

Hayte wrote: »

Sorry, how did Ireland welcome people from the accession states? Did I miss something?

We allowed them unrestricted rights to move to Ireland and work here when their countries joined the EU. Many other countries put in place temporary restrictions, usually for a period of about seven years, IIRC.

Dannyboy83

Festus wrote: »

Danny boy reckons on €340bn - see National debt figure thread

Those are Brian Lucey's figures; See the Vincent Browne show here where he states it:
http://tv3.ie/shows.php?request=tonightwithvincentbrowne&tv3_preview=&video=29656

Mister men

It was a nice country whilst it lasted.

Kev_ps3

Im glad its 6.7%, wish it was higher to be honest. Now we can have a default;)

Bob_Latchford

was watching bbc news 24 last night and they went to economist in New York who had worked for IMF in the past. (sorry for sketchy details)

He reckoned it would be unlikely Ireland pay more than Greece.

Scofflaw

Sand wrote: »

@Hayte


Dunno if military alliances with Italy have ever led to great success.



IIRC, when the EU absorped the Eastern European states back in 2004, many of the Western European countries feared a mass invasion of Polish plumbers. Several of the EU 15 put in place temporary bans on the free movement of people from these countries to ward off the feared human wave. Ireland did not, along with the UK and Sweden IIRC.

Hence Ireland relatively speaking had a fairly calm attitude to the accession states vs. the great fear which animated other member states.

Part of the deal for accession was that the Member States didn't have to open their labour markets to the new members until 2011 at the outside. Neither Ireland nor the UK availed of the option, other countries did for varying periods. In Ireland's case it seems to have been largely a move to expand the labour market, which had already hit full employment at that point. To be fair, the majority of Irish people were pretty welcoming, although there was always a vocal anti-immigration brigade.

cordially,
Scofflaw

doc_17

We had a lot of people calling for the IMF to come in and I'm wondering if they are the same ones that are now calling for the default!

gonedrinking

Does there not need to be a vote in the dail about whether to agree to the bailout terms and conditions? Surely such a monumental decision for Ireland can't just be decided by the taoiseach alone?

ArtSmart

Ok. I'm gonna guess 5.4 %

The speil will be that the monies will be in three sections.

the IMF money first at IMF rate

then money at EU rate

then money from stability fund rate

no bond holder burning, though some 'restructuring' down the road hinted at.

Edit: if it's 5.8 (my other guess) it will included some time scale speil will be pushed to suggest it wont be for long - 'flexible rate' speil.

Bob_Latchford

Reckon it will be hard to understand the deal. Alot of emphasis will be on not knowing the amount drawn down and that it is just a facility etc.

just more opacity

RichardAnd

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Im glad its 6.7%, wish it was higher to be honest. Now we can have a default;)

Be careful what you wish for.

Butch Cassidy

gonedrinking wrote: »

Does there not need to be a vote in the dail about whether to agree to the bailout terms and conditions? Surely such a monumental decision for Ireland can't just be decided by the taoiseach alone?

Nope apparently not.

Bob_Latchford

Some interesting reading

http://www.humanrights.ie/index.php/2010/11/22/imf-conditionality-the-irish-constitution-and-the-need-for-a-dail-vote-on-the-bailout-agreement/

On Friday, the Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan commented that the Government does not “normally have to seek approval of parliament to borrow funds”, and, while noting the unusual nature of the events, stressed that he was seeking legal advice on the necessity of the vote.

The involvement of the IMF provoked questions in some quarters regarding the applicability of Article 29.5.2 of the Constitution to any agreement between Ireland and the IMF.
Article 29.5.2 provides that:

“The State shall not be bound by any international agreement involving a charge upon public funds unless the terms of the agreement shall have been approved by Dáil Éireann”.

you would have to be a laywer to unpick it I reckon

Bob_Latchford

My 2c, its clearly against the spirit of the constitution.

If FF had a clear majority it would be put to the vote, since they dont they will try without.

zig

This is interesting, I guess the words "shall have have been approved by Dail Eireann" could mean anything, i.e. The two Brians approving it is enough surely if you're talking in terms of the constitution? I don't know, as mentioned, you would need a lawyer.

zig

Bob_Latchford wrote: »

Some interesting reading

http://www.humanrights.ie/index.php/2010/11/22/imf-conditionality-the-irish-constitution-and-the-need-for-a-dail-vote-on-the-bailout-agreement/





you would have to be a laywer to unpick it I reckon

I think this post is important and this deserves its own thread.