6.7 % rate for the bailout.

ArtSmart

hopefully the rather excellent south park will end before the 11:50 news on rte.

Darlughda

Well if the Brians suggest in a couple of days that rate will only be 5%, will people go with this?

Are they trying to freak people with the rates and then claim they are the best negotiators on the planet and worked so HARD for the Irish people to get such reductions?

Scofflaw

Inquitus wrote: »

I hope you are right, but for our own national broadcaster to run it as fact as the second item on the news would be incredibly irresponsible were it not at least close to the truth.

Um...no. It would be perfectly within the reach of ordinary journalism for it to have no basis in reality whatsoever. To be fair to the TV media, they can get information of very great moment a very short time before major news slots, and they have to take a pretty snappy decision on it rather than be scooped by everyone else from blogs to local radio. They'd usually judge on the reliability of the source...

cordially,
Scofflaw

Bob_Latchford

neilster wrote: »

has anyone thought that mayb the 6.7% rate is due to percieved risk

Just my 2c, again if this is 6.7 figure is true

I guess the cost to insure this against Irish default is priced in. it looks like IMF/ECB are just borrowing from same markets with wholesale German/American rates, taking the cut and passing it on. If Ireland cant pay this debt back they will just claim on the insurance.

The issue is there in no help here. No faith that with help we can turn this around. Its just a commercial venture. IMF/ECB are taking no risk that we wont default.

Citizen_Cutback

Scofflaw wrote: »

Did he now...that's interesting. Would make a classic Fine Gael tactic, since the chance of it backfiring badly is quite high. There's a lot of short-term political capital in issuing large numbers to make the government look bad, but if the government shows up with a lower number, that can be painted as a win for the government. However, that depends on how long the negotiations take - if there's more than a week or two to go, the anger will settle another fraction of a percent against voting Fianna Fáil, and the relief will take too long to arrive for the release to backfire.

intrigued,
Scofflaw

The Government also includes the Greens.

Every which way the Greens are toast!

Inquitus

Scofflaw wrote: »

Um...no. It would be perfectly within the reach of ordinary journalism for it to have no basis in reality whatsoever. To be fair to the TV media, they can get information of very great moment a very short time before major news slots, and they have to take a pretty snappy decision on it rather than be scooped by everyone else from blogs to local radio. They'd usually judge on the reliability of the source...

cordially,
Scofflaw

I hope you are right, but in this regard I don't think you are.

jpfahy

I posted a link to a youtube video at 23.40 and it was taken down almost immediately. Is there censorship here on boards?????

gsxr1

Paleface wrote: »

They can f*ck off. We should default!

As someone who just listens to the news and does not fully understand the world of finance.

What are the pros and cons of defaulting on our debt ? In laymen terms

Scofflaw

Citizen_Cutback wrote: »

The Government also includes the Greens.

Every which way the Greens are toast!

Yes, I'm in the lucky position of being able to view the political arena with a certain detachment, since the party I prefer are definitely pulling out of government, and almost certain to be wiped out at the subsequent election.

Inquitus wrote:

I hope you are right, but in this regard I don't think you are.

Such are the risks of speculation! However, I'm not commenting on whether the figure is credible, only that RTE putting it up is no particular guarantee of credibility.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Drumpot

jpfahy wrote: »

I posted a link to a youtube video at 23.40 and it was taken down almost immediately. Is there censorship here on boards?????

Was wondering what happened to that . . I actually thanked you ! !

bleg

gsxr1 wrote: »

As someone who just listens to the news and does not fully understand the world of finance.

What are the pros and cons of defaulting on our debt ? In laymen terms

In layman's terms, we're ****ed either way.

jpfahy

Drumpot wrote: »

Was wondering what happened to that . . I actually thanked you ! !

The two Brians have agents on Boards, all is lost......

Scofflaw

jpfahy wrote: »

I posted a link to a youtube video at 23.40 and it was taken down almost immediately. Is there censorship here on boards?????

Yes - see the "[Mod Warning] Video Only Posts" sticky in the main forum for details of how we censor "argument by Youtube".

[EDIT]and posting it again was patently stupid, since the post was obviously deleted by a moderator if you didn't do it yourself[/EDIT]

moderately,
Scofflaw

Idbatterim

The 85 billion isnt a bailout, its 85 billion of more and expensive debt.

Lets hope Geldof can rally the African nations and do a "Live Aid" for Ireland! Bono could maybe appeal for debt forgiveness on our behalf too!

ArtSmart

Idbatterim wrote: »

The 85 billion isnt a bailout, its 85 billion of more and expensive debt.

Lets hope Geldof can rally the African nations and do a "Live Aid" for Ireland! Bono could maybe appeal for debt forgiveness on our behalf too!

or pay his taxes.

hotmail.com

Scofflaw wrote: »

Yes, I'm in the lucky position of being able to view the political arena with a certain detachment, since the party I prefer are definitely pulling out of government, and almost certain to be wiped out at the subsequent election.



Such are the risks of speculation! However, I'm not commenting on whether the figure is credible, only that RTE putting it up is no particular guarantee of credibility.

cordially,
Scofflaw

RTE is pretty credible in relation to breaking big stuff like this. This is why I want to know who leaked this story, knowing full well, it will be the top news story.

Was it a political stroke to divert attention away from the SF byelection victory?

I'm just very suspicious and cynical about politics at the moment and I'm sick of these leaks and kites.

ArtSmart

yep, they're repeating it (RTE)

yeah, looking real alright.

Bob_Latchford

Leo Varadkar if 6.7% is true saying Fine Gael in Government wil

Burn the bondholders and burn them severly

:eek: dont like it when it gets heated

Cookie_Monster

I don't understand how we are supposed to find the money not only to pay the huge interest on this but also to pay it back in 9 years. 8bn interest a year is whats being thrown around and another 8bn to pay back every year. where the **** are we going to get 16bn a year

Scofflaw

hotmail.com wrote: »

RTE is pretty credible in relation to breaking big stuff like this. This is why I want to know who leaked this story, knowing full well, it will be the top news story.

Was it a political stroke to divert attention away from the SF byelection victory?

I'm just very suspicious and cynical about politics at the moment and I'm sick of these leaks and kites.

That's pretty much what I'm saying - that if RTE were the first with it, then it has to not have had a very long lead time. If it didn't have much lead time, then RTE will have only taken it on board if the source was very credible - they wouldn't have run it from some randomer phoning in.

That, in turn, suggests a political manoeuvre - unfortunately, there's something to be gained for both FF and FG here, but the fact that Noonan had a release ready to go suggests the source was known to him, or that someone at RTE leaked it back to him. I'm not suggesting that he arranged it, but he may have lent it credibility, and he certainly intended to make political capital from it.

With the fate of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael currently at stake (the latter because if they can't win this election convincingly then they're barely credible as an opposition) I would be even more sceptical than usual of what appears in the media.

cordially,
Scofflaw

whysomoody

Scofflaw wrote: »

Except that last time we looked, the most respectable moneylenders were charging north of 8%.

That's a higher figure than might have been expected, but one thing it does is make us reluctant to actually use the facility, and keen to get back into the bond markets, because the minute the bond rates drop below 6.7% it makes no sense to draw against the facility any more.

Won't make sense if we're paying interest on the mere existence of the facility, though, and pretty bad if we have to draw down most or all of the facility.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sand wrote: »

The "markets" will understand, its what they would do under similar circumstances - theyll probably welcome the surprising outbreak of common sense.

They will understand but they won't lend to us.

Scofflaw wrote: »

That makes more sense, since the EU member states are drumming the money up from other investors and their own sovereign funds. Still, unless the EU rate is much much higher than 5.2%, you're still not going to get within touching distance of 6.7% for the combination. Assuming two-thirds of the bailout is provided by the EU and by the member states, you'd need them to charge 7.83% on their portion to hit 6.7% overall, which is a figure you wouldn't bother describing as "averaging more than 5.2%".

I wonder if Fine Gael would "leak" scary numbers to damage the government...

cordially,
Scofflaw

Your posts are by far the most sensible on here. Good work.

ArtSmart

whysomoody wrote: »

They will understand but they won't lend to us.



Your posts are by far the most sensible on here. Good work.

well, the most measured in tone anyway...

ArtSmart

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/it%E2%80%99s-not-ireland-that-needs-a-bailout-%E2%80%93-it%E2%80%99s-the-european-lender-of-last-resort-the-ecb/

bit of a radical take, but what the heck at this stage...

Scofflaw

ArtSmart wrote: »

well, the most measured in tone anyway...

Me and Brian Lenihan both...

amused,
Scofflaw

hotmail.com

IF FG did leak this, why haven't the Government commented on the reports and made a vague statement that goes like " nothing has been decided, we're still in negotiations, going forward" - the usual mantra.

They've had several hours to address the reports and they've decided to let this story run.

ArtSmart

hotmail.com wrote: »

IF FG did leak this, why haven't the Government commented on the reports and made a vague statement that goes like " nothing has been decided, we're still in negotiations, going forward" - the usual mantra.

They've had several hours to address the reports and they've decided to let this story run.

xactly. RTE aint exactly small fry.

lightspeed

I have to ask the question of could ireland survive if we did not take this bail out from the IMF and let the bon holders go and f**k themselves.
Im guessing it would ultimately lead to ireland getting kicked out of the eu
but given the circumstances would that be so bad?
I found it interesting when RTE interviewed reporters that were in dublin when the IMF arrived. They were talking to a guy from switzerland and he said that it was interesting for them cause it makes him think what they might be like if they joined the EU.
Switzerland , Norway and i think Denamark are not in the EU. Norway had two referendums and said no but times.
So can we not default and adjust to live like the swiss?

th3 s1aught3r

I assume the people who are currently negotiating this on our behalf are the same people who brought us the banking guarantee "the cheapest ever" and the last 2 years of "green shoots". Surely these people have zero credability

Rubik.

Scofflaw wrote: »

That's pretty much what I'm saying - that if RTE were the first with it, then it has to not have had a very long lead time. If it didn't have much lead time, then RTE will have only taken it on board if the source was very credible - they wouldn't have run it from some randomer phoning in.

That, in turn, suggests a political manoeuvre - unfortunately, there's something to be gained for both FF and FG here, but the fact that Noonan had a release ready to go suggests the source was known to him, or that someone at RTE leaked it back to him. I'm not suggesting that he arranged it, but he may have lent it credibility, and he certainly intended to make political capital from it.

With the fate of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael currently at stake (the latter because if they can't win this election convincingly then they're barely credible as an opposition) I would be even more sceptical than usual of what appears in the media.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I wouldn't of thought RTE would run with this unless it came from a very senior Government source. Whoever leaked it would have known full well the public and media outcry that would follow, which might be of use around the negotiation table. Whether this would have any sway with the EU and particularly the IMF, I have my doubts.

ArtSmart

well, i'm beat. tomorrow is another day. em, hopefully.