6.7 % rate for the bailout.

sollar

bleg wrote: »

Roller coasters are fun

not if your on one for 9 years

dlofnep

mark5 wrote: »

were not liked look at the way we treated the polish people when they came over here to look for work and got jobs on the building sites and in shops

Speak for yourself. I treated Polish people just fine.

gandalf

The BBC are reporting the 6.7% rate this morning as well. Looks like the Government have failed to represent and fight for the Irish people yet again, so no surprise there.

whysomoody

Scofflaw wrote: »

That sounds like a facility which we can dip into for loans repayable over different periods - so we could take out, say, €5bn over two years at 5%, and/or another €5bn at 5.5% over 6 years, and/or another €5bn over nine years at 6.25%.

That looks unsurprisingly like the standard way government debt is issued. If that's what's on offer, it's essentially a private bond market, with the usual rate differences between 2-year bonds and other periods, maximum of €85bn in the kitty (possibly renegotiable) - we don't need to go the bond markets unless they're offering us a better rate, so essentially what the facility does is cap the maximum we have to pay on debt, because if the two-year spread on the open market rises above what's on offer from our private bond market, we just say "no thanks" and borrow from it instead.

Truth is often stranger than fiction...although this is, of course, only speculation on my part. Still, I can't see any reason why it wouldn't make sense.

cordially,
Scofflaw

That would seem to the case all right, it must surely be the case that the duration of the bond will make a huge difference. I wonder if we take out X amount over Y years will we be able to call it early? I wouldn't like to take say 5 years then be forced to continue with it even after we didnt need it. Obviously though the early call option would cost more so maybe best not to.

jmayo

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm not sure - except that I can understand: (a) that the money is being borrowed partly from other lenders in the first place, and it's uncertain what rate they're charging; (b) that this is supposed to be a backstop solution that the government claims they don't need (unless they've retracted that claim); and (c) that given Ireland's track record, making the rate on the facility too attractive would tempt the government in the next four years to avail of it to prop up current spending.

Still, it could be a kite, it could simply be inaccurate, it could be a piece of political chicanery - I know Fianna Fáil will fly a kite to see the reaction, and pull its horns back in if it sees too negative a reaction. In this case, though, it makes more sense for them to leak any higher rates in order to put public pressure on their side - they can say "look, people won't accept this".

cordially,
Scofflaw

Why do I think someone is clutcthing at straws ?

puppetmaster wrote: »

...
Aswell as listening to the FF Idiots and their underhand tactics, why havent we heard any constructive response from the other Dips**ts. Do they now think that they should be a shoe in Cause FF has destroyed us. If thats the thinking, God help us all.

Obviously you haven't noticed Bruton, Varadker and Noonan out hinting that the bondholders must be made carry some of the can ?

jpfahy wrote: »

I posted a link to a youtube video at 23.40 and it was taken down almost immediately. Is there censorship here on boards?????

hmmmm.

Scofflaw wrote: »

...

That, in turn, suggests a political manoeuvre - unfortunately, there's something to be gained for both FF and FG here, but the fact that Noonan had a release ready to go suggests the source was known to him, or that someone at RTE leaked it back to him. I'm not suggesting that he arranged it, but he may have lent it credibility, and he certainly intended to make political capital from it.

With the fate of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael currently at stake (the latter because if they can't win this election convincingly then they're barely credible as an opposition) I would be even more sceptical than usual of what appears in the media.

cordially,
Scofflaw

For someone that chastises the rest of us for speculation and posting rumours you are not too bad at it yourself. :rolleyes:

You are over numerous posts giving legs to the rumour that FG have been involved in this leak and are doignit for political gain.

BTW I have through a source been hearing rumours out of the Dept of Finance and if I am able to manage that, why is it so inconceivable that well connected people in RTE and FG aren't getting information.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Personally, I would say "unless it came from a senior political source" - whether that senior political source is associated with the current government or with the government expected to be in office in a few months. As I said, I wouldn't care to lay money either way, because I know Fianna Fáil do this kind of thing, and I can see that Noonan's recent media behaviour follows an equally hard-nosed pattern.

cordially,
Scofflaw

And here we go again. :rolleyes:
What if I was to say it is senator boyle, yellow party finance spokesperson, that is leaking the information ?

Scofflaw

jmayo wrote: »

Why do I think someone is clutcthing at straws ?

Obviously you haven't noticed Bruton, Varadker and Noonan out hinting that the bondholders must be made carry some of the can ?

hmmmm.

For someone that chastises the rest of us for speculation and posting rumours you are not too bad at it yourself. :rolleyes:

The difference is that it's clearly marked as what it is - speculation based on rumour! I'm awfully sorry if it's insufficiently criticial of the current government for you to like it, though.

jmayo wrote: »

You are over numerous posts giving legs to the rumour that FG have been involved in this leak and are doignit for political gain.

BTW I have through a source been hearing rumours out of the Dept of Finance and if I am able to manage that, why is it so inconceivable that well connected people in RTE and FG aren't getting information.

And here we go again. :rolleyes:
What if I was to say it is senator boyle, yellow party finance spokesperson, that is leaking the information ?

I'd say that's possible too - as I said, I'm in the pretty happy position of knowing that more or less whatever happens, my preferred party won't be forming part of the next government, and will be lucky to return anyone to the Dáil at all. I can't see why any of the Greens would leak it, though, whereas I can see why Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael might.

If you're under the impression that I'm trying to "pin" this on Fine Gael, I'm afraid you're entirely mistaken again. Currently, I'd prefer a strong Fine Gael-led coalition with a minority Labour component - about the relative strengths of the 1990's Rainbow Coalition - to any form of the reverse, although I'll be putting my number 2 to Ruairi Quinn despite that, since if there is to be a strong Labour component I'd want to see Ruairi Quinn in there.

Out of interest, then, are you rooting for Fine Gael?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Dannyboy83

I am rooting for a full FG majority.

Scofflaw - any particular reason why would you prefer to see Ruari Quinn involved?
And why do you want a Labour minority (or it simply that you think FG cannot have a full majority?)

ardmacha

While in one sense unfit for election owing to his previous penchant for drunk driving, Quinn was sensible enough as Minister of Finance. I also seem to recall an initiative for Public Service 2010 which aimed to make the PS the best in Europe by 2010. Now you can be cynical about the actual probablility of achieving this, but articulating the need is half the battle and there is little to suggest that subsequent FF ministers even saw this as desireable.

Rubik.

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I am rooting for a full FG majority.

Scofflaw - any particular reason why would you prefer to see Ruari Quinn involved?
And why do you want a Labour minority (or it simply that you think FG cannot have a full majority?)

Whatever happens in the next General Election, there will not be a FG majority. John Drennan produced a supplement in The Sunday Independent, last month, with his seat by seat analysis of the outcome of the upcoming election.

His verdict - Labour 56, FG 54 and Fianna Fail 42. He may be wrong and it was pre-IMF so FF could well lose more seats, but the most likely outcome is a coalition of two parties of more or less the same size. Which is something we have never had before.

ardmacha

His verdict - Labour 56, FG 54 and Fianna Fail 42. He may be wrong

FG have credible candidates in pretty much every constituency. Labour have problems in regions further from Dublin and can lose votes to SF, whereas FG lose few votes to SF.

Rubik.

ardmacha wrote: »

FG have credible candidates in pretty much every constituency. Labour have problems in regions further from Dublin and can lose votes to SF, whereas FG lose few votes to SF.

I would agree that FG will be the larger of the two parties, but we will have more equal coalition partners than we have had before.

Scofflaw

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I am rooting for a full FG majority.

Scofflaw - any particular reason why would you prefer to see Ruari Quinn involved?
And why do you want a Labour minority (or it simply that you think FG cannot have a full majority?)

I think a full FG majority is unlikely - not impossible, but unlikely - because they haven't done as well out of FF's discomfiture as might be expected. There are plenty of people who won't vote FF but who won't be able to bring themselves to vote FG. I'll be surprised if Labour do as well as the polls might suggest, and I'll also be surprised if Fianna Fáil do as badly as the polls might suggest. It's impossible not to recall that 2007 was supposed to be a Fine Gael landslide - I just don't think that anybody but Fine Gael think that the majority of Irish people will ever vote for Fine Gael. That's no reflection on Fine Gael's policy or people, I hasten to add.

As for Ruairi Quinn, I liked him as Minister for Finance under the Rainbow government. I am somewhat leery of a large Labour element in a coalition, given that there will be money on tap from the IMF/EFSF which could be used to prop up CS spending, and I tend to think of Quinn as someone who is somewhat less likely to go down that road.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Donal Og O Baelach

ardmacha wrote: »

FG have credible candidates in pretty much every constituency. Labour have problems in regions further from Dublin and can lose votes to SF, whereas FG lose few votes to SF.

Two words to prove this point beyond any doubt - "Frank" and "McBrearty".

gollem_1975

Are the bookies giving odds on FG going into gov with FF after the next election ?

gollem_1975

dlofnep wrote: »

Speak for yourself. I treated Polish people just fine.

+1

and unlike Ireland not every other country in the EU welcomed people from the accession states into their countries either.

Bob_Latchford

gollem_1975 wrote: »

Are the bookies giving odds on FG going into gov with FF after the next election ?

FG/Lab 1.08
FG/FF 23.00
FF/Lab 11.00
FF/FG/Lab 15.00
FG/Lab/Green 17.00
Technocratic Government 21.00
FG/FF 23.00
FG Minority Government 26.00
Lab/SF/Green 29.00
FF/Green/SF 41.00
FG/Green 41.00
FG Majority Government 41.00
FG/Lab/SF 51.00
Labour Minority 51.00
FF/SF 67.00
FF Minority Government 101.00


http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?aff_id=60001&ev_oc_grp_ids=46674

jmayo

Scofflaw wrote: »

The difference is that it's clearly marked as what it is - speculation based on rumour! I'm awfully sorry if it's insufficiently criticial of the current government for you to like it, though.

What you reckon I would be critical of the "government" ? :eek:

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'd say that's possible too - as I said, I'm in the pretty happy position of knowing that more or less whatever happens, my preferred party won't be forming part of the next government, and will be lucky to return anyone to the Dáil at all. I can't see why any of the Greens would leak it, though, whereas I can see why Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael might.

How you can still prefer the greens is beyond me ?
Even if they espouse some of your enviromental goals, they promptly sold some of them out, made a bags of the country and will never get a sniff of power again.
Well the greens performance this week did not make sense either so who knows if one of them leaked this ?

Scofflaw wrote: »

If you're under the impression that I'm trying to "pin" this on Fine Gael, I'm afraid you're entirely mistaken again. Currently, I'd prefer a strong Fine Gael-led coalition with a minority Labour component - about the relative strengths of the 1990's Rainbow Coalition - to any form of the reverse, although I'll be putting my number 2 to Ruairi Quinn despite that, since if there is to be a strong Labour component I'd want to see Ruairi Quinn in there.

Agreed IMHO Ruairi Quinn was good in his portfolios.
And Labour did very well in the governments of the 90s.
Only gripe I have of their time in government is they politised the civil service to a degree and they invented a new class of advisors in order to keep an eye on their ff colation partners.
Of course ff and bertie took this to new levels. :rolleyes:

Scofflaw wrote: »

Out of interest, then, are you rooting for Fine Gael?

Yes they would be my favoured party, as you know damm well.
And before some one starts about just wanting a Mayoman for taoiseach, politics is full of Mayo people.
Some are good and some are awful sleeveen gobsh**es.
BTW I don't think Kenny, Rabitte or Stagg are in the latter.
The flynns and creighton would be.

I have always given Labour no.2, but this time Gilmore scares me.
I would have preferred Rabitte, Quinn or Howlin was in charge.
Gilmore sadly strikes me as a principled and honest version of bertie, who wants to appeal to everyone.

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I am rooting for a full FG majority.

Agreed it would be best for the country.

Rubik. wrote: »

Whatever happens in the next General Election, there will not be a FG majority. John Drennan produced a supplement in The Sunday Independent, last month, with his seat by seat analysis of the outcome of the upcoming election.

His verdict - Labour 56, FG 54 and Fianna Fail 42. He may be wrong and it was pre-IMF so FF could well lose more seats, but the most likely outcome is a coalition of two parties of more or less the same size. Which is something we have never had before.

Jaysus dreenan the fanboy of old cj haughey.

Scofflaw wrote: »

I think a full FG majority is unlikely - not impossible, but unlikely - because they haven't done as well out of FF's discomfiture as might be expected. There are plenty of people who won't vote FF but who won't be able to bring themselves to vote FG. I'll be surprised if Labour do as well as the polls might suggest, and I'll also be surprised if Fianna Fáil do as badly as the polls might suggest. It's impossible not to recall that 2007 was supposed to be a Fine Gael landslide - I just don't think that anybody but Fine Gael think that the majority of Irish people will ever vote for Fine Gael. That's no reflection on Fine Gael's policy or people, I hasten to add.

As for Ruairi Quinn, I liked him as Minister for Finance under the Rainbow government. I am somewhat leery of a large Labour element in a coalition, given that there will be money on tap from the IMF/EFSF which could be used to prop up CS spending, and I tend to think of Quinn as someone who is somewhat less likely to go down that road.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I hope you are wrong on ff.
I think there are ffers who just won't vote rather than vote for a "blueshirt".
Hell their house could be burning after being torched by biffo and even if Kenny was leading the firebrigade they wouldn't vote for him.
They would rather burn to death.
I am not sure if Quinn would be one of the ones sidelined by Gilmore in a coalition with FG.
I know it would depend on the numbers, but he might be considered by leadership to be too close to a FG mindset ?

Scofflaw

jmayo wrote:

Yes they would be my favoured party, as you know damm well.

I've never seen you say it, and I wouldn't ever assume! You might, as I do generally, prefer coalitions.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Butch Cassidy

Scofflaw wrote: »

Did he now...that's interesting. Would make a classic Fine Gael tactic, since the chance of it backfiring badly is quite high. There's a lot of short-term political capital in issuing large numbers to make the government look bad, but if the government shows up with a lower number, that can be painted as a win for the government. However, that depends on how long the negotiations take - if there's more than a week or two to go, the anger will settle another fraction of a percent against voting Fianna Fáil, and the relief will take too long to arrive for the release to backfire.

intrigued,
Scofflaw

I don't want to make any assumptions but it's very interesting that a few days after FG meet the IMF and the day before a protest (itself a day before the actual figure is announced) this figure comes out and instantly Fine Gael have someone on hand to make a response (Varadkar) but Noonan also there to give press release....


This figure came from somewhere. I don't believe RTE would make it up - our media's pretty rubbish and has setting the agenda and is not completely unbiased imo - but this number clearly came from somewhere.

Inquitus

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

Festus

Inquitus wrote: »

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

What if your figures are wrong and it is not 90bn but 200bn, 300bn or as I read on the BBC 460bn?
We owe the British banks 140bn alone in what is mostly consumer debt but by making the bank debts here soverign debt we have no real knowledge of how deep the debt is and if borrowed by the banks with interest the debt is growing daily.

Nor do we know what positions the banks trading arms held on derivatives or other market bets.

We can't get out of the hole.

We have to recognise that the hole is there and put barriers and warnings around it. Any attempt to fill that hole in is too dangerous. The only thing that will help us is debt forgiveness.

ardmacha

and unlike Ireland not every other country in the EU welcomed people from the accession states into their countries either.

Germany did not allow Poles work there. Ireland contributed to binding the EU together by profiding employment for so many Eastern European. There were some cases of abuse but by and large this has been a positive exerience. Which is why Ireland needs to build a broader EU coalition for setting policy.

We owe the British banks 140bn alone in what is mostly consumer debt

That's not the government's problem. We have enough trouble without guaranteeing consumer debts to foreign banks. The British will just print the lost money.

Festus

Butch Cassidy wrote: »

This figure came from somewhere. I don't believe RTE would make it up - our media's pretty rubbish and has setting the agenda and is not completely unbiased imo - but this number clearly came from somewhere.

The have to regain some credibility after their recent fiascos.

But then again I regard RTE as having comparable competence to our government.

Festus

ardmacha wrote: »

That's not the government's problem. We have enough trouble without guaranteeing consumer debts to foreign banks

But we already have. Much of Anglo's debt is developer loans or loans to their own staff and directors. Is that not consumer debt that the governemnt has bought?

Scofflaw

Festus wrote: »

But we already have. Much of Anglo's debt is developer loans or loans to their own staff and directors. Is that not consumer debt that the governemnt has bought?

I'm not sure that the very large figures claimed to be owed by our banks to other nations' banks are actually anything of the kind. The figure for "exposure of UK banks to Irish debt" certainly isn't just loans from UK banks to Irish banks - it contains a very large amount (more than half, afaik) of loans from UK banks to Irish businesses and developers, as well as mortgages. RBS' exposure, for example, is €62bn in loans to Irish customers, not Irish banks. And RBS is owned by the British taxpayer since their bailout.

Similarly, the "loans from German banks" figure of €130bn is denied by the German banks, who say that €100bn of that is money in Irish subsidiaries of German banks and on loan outside Ireland.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Mister men

Inquitus wrote: »

I believe we currently owe around 90bn, and I guestimate an average rate on that of around 4%. Then we have this additional facility of 85bn at a quoted 6.7%. This brings us to an average rate of around 5.3% on the full 175bn. Thats 9.3bn a year in interest. Granted we don't have to draw down on the full 85bn immediately, but its likely we will have to draw down around 40bn immediately to recapitalise the banks. On my back of a fag packet maths that means we are saddled with 6.3bn in interest from day 1 which is 20% of current revenues. How can anyone think that is sustainable, or indeed that it's in our interests to sign up to this? The debt will also only shrink organically if our economy's growth + inflation exceeds 5.3% which given the nature of the Austerity program is highly doubtful.

Does anyone on here actually think we can get out of this hole?

No i don't think we can. Also the figures presented are best case scenario yes?

kaiser sauze

Festus wrote: »

What if your figures are wrong and it is not 90bn but 200bn, 300bn or as I read on the BBC 460bn?
We owe the British banks 140bn alone in what is mostly consumer debt but by making the bank debts here soverign debt we have no real knowledge of how deep the debt is and if borrowed by the banks with interest the debt is growing daily.

Nor do we know what positions the banks trading arms held on derivatives or other market bets.

We can't get out of the hole.

We have to recognise that the hole is there and put barriers and warnings around it. Any attempt to fill that hole in is too dangerous. The only thing that will help us is debt forgiveness.

No matter what way I scribble them down, I can't add them up to €460Bn. :eek:

BehindTheScenes

jmayo wrote: »

Yes they would be my favoured party, as you know damm well.
And before some one starts about just wanting a Mayoman for taoiseach, politics is full of Mayo people.
Some are good and some are awful sleeveen gobsh**es.
BTW I don't think Kenny, Rabitte or Stagg are in the latter.
The flynns and creighton would be.



I think there are ffers who just won't vote rather than vote for a "blueshirt".
Hell their house could be burning after being torched by biffo and even if Kenny was leading the firebrigade they wouldn't vote for him.
They would rather burn to death.
I am not sure if Quinn would be one of the ones sidelined by Gilmore in a coalition with FG.
I know it would depend on the numbers, but he might be considered by leadership to be too close to a FG mindset ?

Disagree with you about Stagg based on what he did to his brother Francis. Rabitte and Kenny come across as pretty good in their own unique ways.

My Grandad is one of those FFers by the way. Enda Kenny or Eamon Gilmore could lead Ireland to glorious times in the next two years and they would still be a blue shirt c**t and a commie dog. I kid you not.

Shame.

mike65

The deal has been done apparently and there will be an EU Finance ministers metting tomorrow. One can only suspect the worst deal has been struck if the have got this done 24 hours before they really needed it done.

flynnlives

I can will imagine biffo and lendahand deep in that hole and the IMF/EU dudes shouting down to them "dig up guys, dig up!"

biffo and lenadahand: "yessir!"


Anyways before i emigrate something after the election im going to spend all my spare time making sure Fianna Failure get annihalited!
I have a few plans to hatch...

Expect to see the dirtiest election in years!!