Cold Spell Chart, Forecast Analysis & Warnings- 29/11/2010 onwards

Nemesis

Look at how the Isle of man and Anglesea block the streamers.!

hotwhiskey

Looking at the charts for next week the cold returns after a few days of milder temperatures, I say mild but 4-6 deg is still below the average for this time of year.

I was listening to Met Eireann and the were saying the cold snap will end next week. So i was looking up the GFS and ECM charts and the are much in agreement but a day out or so. I know its a bit far out but if Met Eireann use the ECM has a guide why are the saying we will return to milder conditions next week.

Take a look!!

GFS



ECM

nacho libre

I was listening to Met Eireann and the were saying the cold snap will end next week. So i was looking up the GFS and ECM charts and the are much in agreement but a day out or so. I know its a bit far out but if Met Eireann use the ECM has a guide why are the saying we will return to milder conditions next week.

Take a look!!

GFS



ECM

[/QUOTE]

well it would be more accurate for them to say it will become relatively milder, because in a normal situation they would be describing maximum temperatures of 6-7c as average.
the teleconnections look good for continue heights in the north atlantic. so what we can say is there is no signal for raging zonality to return anytime soon. however there is a danger that any high pressure in the north Atlantic will be too close to us, or worse still sink in over us, which will lead to cold nights and average day time temperatures. ideally a high would ridge back up towards greenland and then we press the reload button:)


so in conclusion it is safe to say there certainly isn't any real sign of 13-14 degrees celsius, with system after system sweeping across the country in the forseeable future.

Mayo Exile

Isle of Man leaves a gap!


EDIT: M2 buoy dewpoint has gone from -0.6 at 1400 to -1.8 at 1500. A nice drop!

TheMilkyPirate

It'll be much the same tonight in the east as it was on friday and saturday yeah?

Vizual Pics

What are the experts views on the weak front that may possibly push in from the West over the next few days? I'm not sure who mentioned it earlier today but do you think that this weak front could bring any snow to the West once it hits the cold air? Everyone seems to be focusing on whats coming from the east at the moment and just wondering are any of the experts tracking anything that could potentially come from the Atlantic and meet the cold air and cause a widespread event..I'm thinking along the lines of 1947 here where there was weeks of cold temps from the east and then a front approached from the West hitting the cold air...Let me know what you think?

baraca

baraca wrote: »

It'll be much the same tonight in the east as it was on friday and saturday yeah?

These things have a habit of coming back and biting me in the face lol
I may jinx it by commenting but..the gfs 12z suggest huge convective activity hitting the East coast tonight,tomorrow and even thursday.
Though their precip predictions I usually only look at up to +12hrs at most as I find them unreliable after that.
Hirlam updates sometime after five and it has had a good handle on precip amounts and locations during this spell in the short term.
It's current output has heavy precip at various locations from time to time ,all up and down the East coast and reaching the midlands at times.
So it's all ahead of us really [/jinx]

Newtown90

Timistry wrote: »

Kerry has the front and back door open and the snow just does not want to come in to say hi!

There is a fair bit of snow at home in North Kerry!!

Looking at the charts think Cork shall get a few showers again possibly:D

nacho libre

Vizual Pics wrote: »

What are the experts views on the weak front that may possibly push in from the West over the next few days? I'm not sure who mentioned it earlier today but do you think that this weak front could bring any snow to the West once it hits the cold air? Everyone seems to be focusing on whats coming from the east at the moment and just wondering are any of the experts tracking anything that could potentially come from the Atlantic and meet the cold air and cause a widespread event..I'm thinking along the lines of 1947 here where there was weeks of cold temps from the east and then a front approached from the West hitting the cold air...Let me know what you think?

unfortunately it will most likely be rain or sleet for those in the west. those further inland and to the east have a chance of some snow, due to the exceptionally cold air at the surface- although freezing rain is actually more likely than snow even in these areas.
it's very annoying that a weak warm front can make things marginal for us with such entrenched cold over us, but that's the way it goes having the atlantic close by.

cherryghost

Friday looks very interesting. It's going to very much a now cast come Thursday night. Charts would suggest that the DP may hold out for the west and Midlands area. The south and east look less likely to get snow, more rain/sleety than anything

Iancar29

cherryghost wrote: »

Friday looks very interesting. It's going to very much a now cast come Thursday night. Charts would suggest that the DP may hold out for the west and Midlands area. The south and east look less likely to get snow, more rain/sleety than anything

My guess for friday is when the front moves across the country it'll fall as snow at first as the cold air in front, but then slowly start turning into sleet and possibly rain. But for high grounds specially in the west its looking like a real good day for snow. 10-20cms id say.

Edit: Thunderstorms could also develope off the SW coast heading towards kerry, cork and waterford as the Jet stream over the S increases upward convection and instabiblity.

munsterlegend

Glenviewjf wrote: »

There is a fair bit of snow at home in North Kerry!!

Looking at the charts think Cork shall get a few showers again possibly:D

which charts?!

Drakmord

Bastardi seems to think that the cold snap is coming to an end.
It'll be gone my the 5th apparently.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

thetonynator

Drakmord wrote: »

Bastardi seems to think that the cold snap is coming to an end.
It'll be gone my the 5th apparently.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

bastardi is desperate for this cold snap to end because it will prove his winter forecast wrong if it continues. Personally, i think it will last a bit longer than the fifth, but think about it, this time last year we still had floods and absolutely on sign of cold weather ahead. And look what happened then! And there is also m.t. 's winter forecast, if you want a bit of optimism!

IvySlayer

Drakmord wrote: »

Bastardi seems to think that the cold snap is coming to an end.
It'll be gone my the 5th apparently.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Yeah, cos he's been perfectly right about everything so far :pac:

Gremlin

Does a cold spell like this had repercussions later in the winter? For example does it take heat from the sea thereby making a similar event say in January more likely to produce snow?

nacho libre

Based on Gerry Murphy's forecast there seems to be a window of opportunity tomorrow night and some of Thursday for the west and northwest, as the winds swing around to the north- north east. That seems to be a new development. He also stated the midlands and east are most likely to see any snow on Friday.
I fear those of us further west may have to contend with freezing rain. Which will make it very tricky for driving Friday night and Saturday morning.

Eastcoastryan

Lads, is anyone else on the East Coast worried about the temps for tonight? I thought we were supposed to be gripped by Bitterly cold air, has this arrived already or is it on the way? The reason I ask, here in Bray the temp has risen to 3.5C and the DP is -0.4, this is marginal at best, anyone know if thats set to change? On Fri and Sat night when we got alot of snow, the temp and DP was much lower!!

Cionád

At 7pm, M2 databuoy DP up slightly to 0.1c, but temperature plummeted to 2.5 (from 4.8 at 6pm)

Defcol

Navan is teetering on the edge! Are the streamers coming off the top of the Isle of Man likely to get bigger as the night goes on?

redsteveireland

nacho libre wrote: »

Based on Gerry Murphy's forecast there seems to be a window of opportunity tomorrow night and some of Thursday for the west and northwest, as the winds swing around to the north- north east. That seems to be a new development. He also stated the midlands and east are most likely to see any snow on Friday.
I fear those of us further west may have to contend with freezing rain. Which will make it very tricky for driving Friday night and Saturday morning.

I was thinking the same, freezing rain looks most likely. That's one thing I find annoying with the met eireann 5 day forecast, the precipitation is off the west coast at 6am but then when you slide it on to 6pm it has broken up. What happens between those 12 hours?
I'm still hopeful for some of the showers to have enough power to push all the way across the country like they did this morning. the more likely outcome is for them to break up across the midlands.

pistolpetes11

Any of the experts care to explain why the M2 buoy is having a little dp temp rise now 0.7 and temp 3.3

Su Campu

Amazing to see the effect of the Isle of Mann on our weather. With the streamers following the 850hPa wind vectors, and these vectors not going to change direction in the next 24hrs, the places that are getting snow will continue to, and that clear area from north Dublin through Kildare (it's a clear night here!) may get very little. With higher level winds strengthening overnight, we may see these showers beef up and really dump several more inches.

So the current radar image can pretty much act as a precipitation forecast model for the next day too!

Iancar29

ANyone know if the winds are due to go easterly !?... i was asleep earlier when the 6 one weather was on...

SIck of these clear skies in N dublin now (

pistolpetes11

Dont think so , the North easterly s are due to go slack as the night goes on , which might help

Elmo5

Su Campu, winds do change though and rarely stay completely on the same course for so long. Are you sure that there won't be any change in direction?

Su Campu

Elmo5 wrote: »

Su Campu, winds do change though and rarely stay completely on the same course for so long. Are you sure that there won't be any change in direction?

The models aren't showing any change in steering winds over the next 24 hours....

MT said that we could possibly see a change. So Im just going to try stay optimistic. Seems like anything could happen.

No disrepect to your knowledge Su.

heres the quote. Boards are slow so posting here so people dont have to trawl to search ;

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium
I see what you mean, two things perhaps in your favour, one is that winds rarely stay exactly oriented the same way hour after hour so there is bound to be some oscillation of the streamers but also, as I posted in another thread, I see signs of colder air settling into the central and western counties that may drop temperatures there significantly by midnight, and this may have the effect of slowing down the surface E-NE winds and setting up that mesoscale wind boundary that we saw the other night, so don't be surprised if these streamers actually get heavier this evening and through the night, and develop a lot more thunder again


Sounds hopeful to me anyway

Clutching at straws

Su Campu

Jake1 wrote: »

heres the quote. Boards are slow so posting here so people dont have to trawl to search ;

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium
I see what you mean, two things perhaps in your favour, one is that winds rarely stay exactly oriented the same way hour after hour so there is bound to be some oscillation of the streamers but also, as I posted in another thread, I see signs of colder air settling into the central and western counties that may drop temperatures there significantly by midnight, and this may have the effect of slowing down the surface E-NE winds and setting up that mesoscale wind boundary that we saw the other night, so don't be surprised if these streamers actually get heavier this evening and through the night, and develop a lot more thunder again


Sounds hopeful to me anyway

Clutching at straws

Believe me, being stuck right in the middle of that clear slot, I'd love him to be right! He has much more experience than anyone here so let's all clutch to the Canadian Straw!