Cold Spell Chart, Forecast Analysis & Warnings- 29/11/2010 onwards

Cú Giobach

Discodog wrote: »

MODS: Please can we have a thread or edit this one so that is only for forecast/analysis.

It might be better to start again & really stress the rules.

+1
I'm glad for the folks in the East getting snow, but it's getting annoying that they're going on about it everywhere on here.

pistolpetes11

Out to 120 hours we still have -5 uppers over us and the wind coming from a Arctic Flow (Northerly) if I am looking at these charts correctly

lucernarian

The situation currently, the so-called shadow's being shifted northwards somewhat. There are going to be some fluctuations of this but the trend is now in place. As the winds are more stiff, the radar is not so much of a guide due to the speed of convection and how the showers beef up much more before hitting land. Here's a link for satellite pictures from the last hour or so: http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop


Now, what's forecast from lunch until tonight:

A definite change of wind, subtle but meaning that places that haven't received so much snow are more in with a chance along the east coast. It may mean that the amounts of snow for more southern Wicklow may die down as the day goes on however. It depends a lot on if the showers hold together past Angelsea, and they've done that so far. As we all can see, it's been tricky making calls for the east coast so far.

Not much joy for snow lovers beyond Leinster. I suppose Waterford is in with a good chance throughout the day

lucernarian

I should point out that the winds get a more northerly aspect after that! By about midnight or so, they become NNE. Though that does mean that parts of North county Dublin are in with a shout, along with the south Louth and Meath coasts. But I'm hopeful for Dublin city over the course of the afternoon:)

force eleven

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

GFS still going for sub-zero max temperatures quite widely on Monday.

force eleven

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.png

In the interests of fairness to those who dislike cold weather, I give you this.... please note the date though and take a pinch shovel load of salt with it....

amacachi

When's the latest estimate for a proper end to this? I've been hearing Friday and Monday from different places.

snaps

amacachi wrote: »

When's the latest estimate for a proper end to this? I've been hearing Friday and Monday from different places.

2nd Friday in January!

Would say certain parts of my garden will be frozen for months to come like last year, as it doesnt get any sun.

Dotsie~tmp

Wrong thread

metrovelvet

Does anyone know when and if there will be a thaw next week?

Gremlin

metrovelvet wrote: »

Does anyone know when and if there will be a thaw next week?

The latest forecast models;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Suggest that there will not be a major improvement until 9/10th December.

Also pay heed to saturdays 06Z chart looks like its going to get even colder then. Interesting thing is there is a weather front due on Friday. Maybe the first predictions of a frontal snow event?

thetonynator

metrovelvet wrote: »

Does anyone know when and if there will be a thaw next week?

Not really there might be rain and a slight thaw tomorrow, maybe a bit of a thaw on sunday as well, but no real end in sight until after next week anyway.

inabina

siobhan ryan just on radio there - talking about the chance of "serious" snowfall for the east on friday

cherryghost

I think Friday's forecast is very underrated. I reckon most of the country will get some cover. DP is still very low and temperatures, although warmer than recent days, is still more than cold enough for snowfall

thetonynator

cherryghost wrote: »

I think Friday's forecast is very underrated. I reckon most of the country will get some cover. DP is still very low and temperatures, although warmer than recent days, is still more than cold enough for snowfall

And temps will be even colder by friday with -13 forecast for friday night.

nacho libre

just saw the bbc weather

first the good news:
on the precipitation chart it showed snow falling about 50 miles inland from the coast on Friday.
He(Tomas) also said temperatures could get down to as low as -30 on thursday in parts of Scotland- that would break records.

the bad news: is that he indicated it may get "warmer" over the weekend. perhaps that was just a fig leaf to those who want to see an end to the snow and cold or perhaps a new trend?

nacho libre

cherryghost wrote: »

I think Friday's forecast is very underrated. I reckon most of the country will get some cover. DP is still very low and temperatures, although warmer than recent days, is still more than cold enough for snowfall

well you, and those further east and to the north, say cavan, meath, monagahan are in the best position. i think will be knife edge stuff for anyone west of Athlone

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

just saw the bbc weather

first the good news:
on the precipitation chart it showed snow falling about 50 miles inland from the coast on Friday.
He(Tomas) also said temperatures could get down to as low as -30 on thursday in parts of Scotland- that would break records.

the bad news: is that he indicated it may get "warmer" over the weekend. perhaps that was just a fig leaf to those who want to see an end to the snow and cold or perhaps a new trend?

Half a degree warmer is still "warmer". Covering his ass I'd say, but he could be right. Then again it could get colder. Would depend on where you live I suppose.

leahyl

This front that's coming in from the Atlantic on Friday - how likely would it be that Cork would see some snow from this?

cherryghost

leahyl wrote: »

This front that's coming in from the Atlantic on Friday - how likely would it be that Cork would see some snow from this?

50/50 maybe snow, but will fall as sleet more than likely. Things will be clearer Thursday night so keep an eye on the forecasters here :pac:

snowstreams

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Just looking ahead to the end of the cold spell. From that chart from 8th/9th of december. What is the likelyhood that the high pressure in the chart wont actually cause us to warm up very much. i.e we just get sunny days but still have frosty nights, and so the snow doesnt melt very fast.
The only reason i ask, is i was wondering will the snow in the mountains last a long time after the cold spell. At the end of last years cold spell there was a warm blast of rain that melted alot of the snow in the mountains very quickly.

leahyl

cherryghost wrote: »

50/50 maybe snow, but will fall as sleet more than likely. Things will be clearer Thursday night so keep an eye on the forecasters here :pac:

Will do thanks cherrghost! This is seriously exciting stuff:)

Gonzo

back in the middle of the Isle Of Man shadow here for past few hours. I always seem to be in a prime location for it every cold spell, at least this time it's been drifting in and out of it as the wind direction changes slightly between east and north-east.

Scubadevils

Gonzo wrote: »

back in the middle of the Isle Of Man shadow here for past few hours. I always seem to be in a prime location for it every cold spell, at least this time it's been drifting in and out of it as the wind direction changes slightly between east and north-east.

I'm constantly in the shadow here in Lusk - been blue sky and sunshine all bloody day!

I swear, you couldn't make it up - years hoping for a decent snow and then the last two years deliver but not to my area. A pity there is nowhere you can complain to :pac:

nacho libre

.

nacho libre

snowstreams wrote: »

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Just looking ahead to the end of the cold spell. From that chart from 8th/9th of december. What is the likelyhood that the high pressure in the chart wont actually cause us to warm up very much. i.e we just get sunny days but still have frosty nights, and so the snow doesnt melt very fast.
The only reason i ask, is i was wondering will the snow in the mountains last a long time after the cold spell. At the end of last years cold spell there was a warm blast of rain that melted alot of the snow in the mountains very quickly.

that chart is so far away it's not possible to know if it will verify, but let's say it does, temperatures will improve at best to 5-8c by day. This will obviously be sufficient for a rapid thaw at lower levels, but with so much snow on the wicklow mountains it will take a long time to shift it, provided temperatures stay in that range and it stays dry.
Bear in mind also if it's six-seven degree celsius at sea level, it will be at least 2-3 degrees colder at the top of the Wicklow Mountains.

GavinH

Just watched sky news weather. They predict a breakdown at the weekend with warmer air moving in from the south. Some temps in sw England to go to 9c. South of Ireland to have 6c on Sunday. Anybody care to comment?

eigrod

Anglesea has been like one of those bubble machines all day....just keeps on generating the stuff and blowing it over here.

snowstreams

nacho libre wrote: »

that chart is so far away it's not possible to know if it will verify, but let's say it does, temperatures will improve at best to 5-8c by day. This will obviously be sufficient for a rapid thaw at lower levels, but with so much snow on the wicklow mountains it will take a long time to shift it, provided temperatures stay in that range and it stays dry.
Bear in mind also if it's six-seven degree celsius at sea level, it will be at least 2-3 degrees colder at the top of the Wicklow Mountains.

Hopefully there could be some night frosts too, that would help to keep the snow cold and solid and potentially even more than 3c colder than sea level?
Sure its too early to know yet anyway. Thanks.

pistolpetes11

GavinH wrote: »

Just watched sky news weather. They predict a breakdown at the weekend with warmer air moving in from the south. Some temps in sw England to go to 9c. South of Ireland to have 6c on Sunday. Anybody care to comment?

Dont worry about Sky news , There does seem to be some slight warming but its not nailed on yet and can still change so far out.