Ballina TD in next goverment - Michelle Mulherin

hsi

am i bovvered wrote: »

don't know what you mean by interesting.

Lots of people in Ireland just like Dara have worked hard over the last few years, and now they are out of a job........... because of Fianna Fail

My choice would be both to get in and I will vote 1-2, whats so wrong about michelle getting a run at it, she seems perfectly capable to me.

I think a lot of People gave Dara 1 and Michelle 2 in the last election, So I think she could swing it this time.

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

Looking from the outside in, Calleary appears to have aligned himself with the Albert Reynolds old gang known as the country and western set, now led by Brian Cowen. The opposite side of this grouping is the Dublin set which is headed up by a diminished Brian Lenihan and Mary Hanafin.

Calleary has benefited from Cowen's country and western set as he's minister of state for labour affairs, and in his first outing in the Dail! Very difficult to strip the few successes he has (trying to think of them, :rolleyes:) with the manner in which FF have handled the overall handlin of the economy. Whatever about the events and mismanagement over the last month, its the Bertie years that did the real damage.

Interested to hear what posters think are the real issues for the people of North Mayo in this election? Given the tied purse strings, how can major infrastructural improvements be secured?

My top list of issues are as follows;

• Improving the Strokestown to Ballaghderen road (Most important issue, IMO)
• IDA park for Ballina
• Supports for long term unemployed re training, lifestyle enhancement, productivity, time mangement etc as Ballina is an unemployement black spot this may become a bigger issue over time leading to anti social behavior, criminality etc.
• Reverting to old traffic flow system in Ballina
• Securing new industries for North Mayo to help employment
• Getting the Ballina to Balla road plan back on track with the bypass of Foxford.
• Improved corprate governance in MCC/Town councils e.g. the digging in of officials regarding the traffic system.
• Support for planning for one off housing on their own land. The law was changed on this recently by John Gormley and I appreciate it is an issue within MCC and the councillors.

Note that this is parochial and if Ballina/North Mayo returns a TD these are some of the issues that need addressing, IMO. Note that it is not exhaustive so please feel free to add to the issues and once Michelle gets elected we can measure her performance on her deliverance. :P

Go Shell, Go......:rolleyes:

I agree that all those are important issues, the IDA Park I know has such a lot of issues around it, Calleary has worked hard on trying to resolve them but they are complex.

I know for a fact that he is unhappy with the traffic system.

He did a lot of work on the Hollister investement.

The N26 was a major disappointment and no elected official can do anything about the muppets who sit on an Bord Pleanala.

I seriously would worry about Michelles ability to deliver, what has she achieved as a member of the Town Council/County Council? Getting involved in a daft row over the naming of the Bridge to Nowhere isn't an achievement.

Monty Burnz

You would think that people had learned a lesson about putting local interests ahead of national interests when the last 2 governments bankrupted the country.

alex73

Monty Burnz wrote: »

You would think that people had learned a lesson about putting local interests ahead of national interests when the last 2 governments bankrupted the country.

Problem is unless there is focus on the west the east gets the money, its great to have a luas and metro, but to the ordinary person in mayo its little good. We need people in power to protect our region

Monty Burnz

alex73 wrote: »

Problem is unless there is focus on the west the east gets the money, its great to have a luas and metro, but to the ordinary person in mayo its little good. We need people in power to protect our region

Nonsense. There is a decent sized city in the East - that's why it has 2 tramlines. Similar sized cities in other places have metro systems. Do you really expect a Mayo Metro?

This is exactly the kind of stuff that makes me despair of the Irish electorate. Too many people are happy to vote in gombeens like Jackie Healy Rae or corrupt clowns like Michael Lowry because they are promised a few bob for some pork-barrel project. Then they are astonished when a government made up of these funeral-attending, back-scratching morons has the whole country (including their particular parish) crawling on its hands and knees to the IMF, who will tell us how many hospitals must be closed and how many public services cut. Short-term, short-sighted, and bog-ignorant. We need to change the system so it can't happen again.

And I agree 100% that the country as a whole needs to be looked after, not just South Dublin. That's just more local gombeenism.

dicknorris

alex73 wrote: »

No, just someone who wants to see Ballina on the Map in the next Dail. (and not sitting on the opposition benches)



I am sure he did, just not the estate where I live, we got 2 FF guys canvassing for him.

The fact that your location says Wicklow maybe thats the reason he did'nt canvass your estate

finisklin

All politics is local and I can see the point about the luas, metro etc. However if Michelle is canvassing for improving infrastructure in other parts of the state then she may not make it!:eek:

We can only use the deck of cards that we, the electorate have been given, and until a better proposal comes along we are stuck with what we have. It is clear there are major problems with the political system, and especially the turkeys in the system, however implementing Fintan O'Toole's initiatives is difficult. Why? Turkeys don't vote for Xmas.

Maybe Monty Burnz you have concrete proposals to change the system that will ensure a balanced approach and rid us of gombeenism. However, getting the turkeys to change it is another thing all together. :mad:

alex73

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Nonsense. There is a decent sized city in the East - that's why it has 2 tramlines. Similar sized cities in other places have metro systems. Do you really expect a Mayo Metro?

This is exactly the kind of stuff that makes me despair of the Irish electorate. Too many people are happy to vote in gombeens like Jackie Healy Rae or corrupt clowns like Michael Lowry because they are promised a few bob for some pork-barrel project. Then they are astonished when a government made up of these funeral-attending, back-scratching morons has the whole country (including their particular parish) crawling on its hands and knees to the IMF, who will tell us how many hospitals must be closed and how many public services cut. Short-term, short-sighted, and bog-ignorant. We need to change the system so it can't happen again.

And I agree 100% that the country as a whole needs to be looked after, not just South Dublin. That's just more local gombeenism.

People may not realise it but Ballina is the only town in Ireland that have a Freight Rail head and line.(I stand corrected) If it also had a decent road to connect bypass foxford/Swinford even better. There are a lot of big companies that any country in Europe would love to have.

One this is the big picture, but if nobody fights for the local issues then we get nowhere and forgotten in the big picture.

Thats why we need a local TD in the ruling party who can fight for local issues.

Maybe if the west had better infrastructure you would see more investment.

hsi

Monty Burnz wrote: »

And I agree 100% that the country as a whole needs to be looked after, not just South Dublin. That's just more local gombeenism.

What is Politics other than "local gombeenism" The only way that a party can govern is if they have local support to get TD's elected.

Maybe we need to reform the electoral system. As it stands we have what we have.

Monty Burnz

finisklin wrote: »

Maybe Monty Burnz you have concrete proposals to change the system that will ensure a balanced approach and rid us of gombeenism. However, getting the turkeys to change it is another thing all together. :mad:

You are dead right, and so is HSI above - it's the electoral system that needs reform to compensate for our tendency to vote for the local clown who promises the world. The only concrete proposal I have is to start a conversation about that reform, push for it, ask tell your local politicians that you want it, and take part in discussions about it. Hopefully between us we can force the turkeys to do the right thing :rolleyes:

hsi

This is the view in Mayonews,

http://www.mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11447:ready-to-battle-in-2011&catid=3:news-features&Itemid=29

alex73

hsi wrote: »

This is the view in Mayonews,

http://www.mayonews.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11447:ready-to-battle-in-2011&catid=3:news-features&Itemid=29

It will be interesting to see what the Flynn and Calleary dynasties do, I think there will be a hard fight to get both elected.

Avns1s

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

I agree that all those are important issues, the IDA Park I know has such a lot of issues around it, Calleary has worked hard on trying to resolve them but they are complex.

I know for a fact that he is unhappy with the traffic system.

He did a lot of work on the Hollister investement.

The N26 was a major disappointment and no elected official can do anything about the muppets who sit on an Bord Pleanala.

I seriously would worry about Michelles ability to deliver, what has she achieved as a member of the Town Council/County Council? Getting involved in a daft row over the naming of the Bridge to Nowhere isn't an achievement.

I would love to see a list of things that Dara did deliver. I think it would be short to be honest and if you excluded Ballina from it, it would be able to be written on the back of a stamp. And before anyone goes off on a tangent, Dara is there to represent the county or if you want to be pedantic about it an take the FF view of the county, then he is there to represent the North and East while Flynn has the South and West. Calleary will need far more votes than he will get in Ballina to be re-elected. Pity he didn't think of that during his term.

On the Hollister investment, if truth be told Dara's role in it was minimal. On the N26, I agree that Bord Pleanala are total Muppets with an urban and green mentaility, but Dara was part of the government and the Cabinet so turf the muppets out. Change it, ABP is a total impediment to any kind of development, another quango!

I wouldn't have any doubt about Michelles ability to deliver. She is tough in a reasoned way, an absolute tiger and one who will do what is right rather than follow the sheep. I am saying this looking in from the outside, I am not a member of any party, nor have I ever met Michelle. I think she would be head and shoulders above Dara.

And one further point, Dara got his reward for his time in this Dail. He got paid and regardless of what he delivered, if he loses his seat, he is owed nothing. He has been paid handsomely. This is one of the fundamental points that many in this government forgot, they are PAID SERVANTS of the people of this country, not controllers and dictators, which was precisely the way they behaved, and their arrogance based on this self opinion, is what has this country in the Sh**e it's in!


Rant over, God that feels so much better!! :):)

alex73

I don't think I would apply the work arrogant to Calleary, He does not come across as such.

I think once Mulherin gets her footing she will show she is well able to deliver. She has a lot going for her, and the tide now is in her favor.

Kristopherus

hsi wrote: »

Jobs Jobs Jobs... I think this is the essential #1 message that any candidate for Dail should note.

I moved here 10 years ago and even then there was considerable unemployment in Ballina, however at the same time there was lots of Jobs if people wanted them. (over a thousand polish imigrants did find employment). I know today things are tighter, but I think there are a lot of people long term unemployed who are nearly unemployable.

There has to be a move to get unemployed out to train and to work for the dole. I mean and I don't want to belittle anyone, but they could clear the paths of snow or tidy the town, work there is and 16 hours of service a week of dole payment should be motted. As things stand we have been paying dole to people who have not worked for years.

That will be a monumental challenge in Ballina. I had a very good friend who moved to Ballina to workin the late seventies. He was then working as an
insurance agent, which then meant calling door to door to tout for business. He was telling me thet he went into houses in 2 particular estates and there were 3 generations of men, none of whom had ever worked a day in their lives.That affected him for years afterwards, as he had come for a background with a very strong work ethic. There is still a lot of that cohort living in those estates. I would hope that that situation would be rectified, but what with the current recession, i fear there will be no quick fix there.Not even by a combined Dara & Michelle effort.

finisklin

Avns1s wrote: »

I wouldn't have any doubt about Michelles ability to deliver. She is tough in a reasoned way, an absolute tiger and one who will do what is right rather than follow the sheep. I am saying this looking in from the outside, I am not a member of any party, nor have I ever met Michelle. I think she would be head and shoulders above Dara.

I respect your opinion and like you I have no politcal allegiance to party or candidate. However your description of Michelle as an absolute tiger and in a previous post as a terrier falls way short of my experience as an outside observer, like you looking in but grounded from first hand experience. That is to say I have seen her in action in the council chamber (as an obsever from the viewing gallery) and though sharp procedurally and au fait with rattling her fine gael sabre agin the FFers etc I didn't see substance in her debating, influencing manner that marked her out as a robust politician that has the skillset to actually deliver. There was a timidness to her that was uninspiring, IMHO. :rolleyes:

This judgement is based on what I actually saw and experienced and not the smoke and mirrors that you read or listen to in the Western People, MWR. For example, making Liam and Noel Gallagher first citizens of Mayo (from what I can remember) is a populist, headline grabbing endeavour from a media savvy county councillor that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, frankly. These qualities are also similiar in her leader, Inda, looks great and sounds alright (not consistently) but would I have confidence in managing the country? Nope.

I think Michelle will get a seat, her challenge will be how she can negotiate with her other Mayo FG colleagues in ensuring that investment goes into the North of the county as opposed to the South and East Mayo. In that challenge she is up agin the formidable Michael Ring who is miles ahead of O'Mahony and Kenny ability wise. Plus he will have a ministry under his belt as well. The latter may help him getting round to even more funeral's given that he will have a driver and state car. :cool:

The election campaign may throw up some excitement in how she manages O'Mahony camping and infringing in her back yard..........:pac:........

I am sure her relationship with him is not that well developed due to the manner in which he carried out his campaign last time. Looking forward to another clash here.....but will be expecting Michelle to be more organised.

The county's political junkies will be lapping it up......:p:D:p

hsi

in 2002 there was aprox 10,000 people in Ballina. 15% were unemployed, so that is 1500 people.

From 2003-2007 about 2000 Eastern Europeans arrived and found work, none were entitled to Dole payments.
Today they are working in Delis,Pubs,Petrol stations, Stores, factories. Hotels, Farms. I estimate about 1000 remain in Ballina, ( After all there are 4 Polish shops in the town!)

So its a major failure of Fianna Fail not to have tackled the Irish unemployed who for years have made no efforts to work. Because jobs there obviously were in ballina for 80% of those on the dole in 2000. It was fine during the Boom as we could afford the social welfare, today we can't.

There is a certain council estate in ballina with new houses that have Solar Panels, far better houses than the one I had to buy. I don't begrudge them the houses, but they have been handed to them on a plate, they paid no taxes or PRSI. Whats worse is to see the new houses that are no even respected, horses outside the door along with other rubbish.

I go running a lot around Ballina and I am still amazed how much rubbish is in the hedges and ditchs, Even along the Moy. Why are we paying the guts of €300,000 a week to long term unemployed in Ballina without any social dividend for the community!!,,

Its a point that really annoys me, Thank God I personally never claimed dole, If I were unemployed I would, But I could never sit and not try and find work. But there is a sector in Ballina who see social welfare as a normal state of existing, they teach it to their kids and they all play the system to the max.

Avns1s

alex73 wrote: »

I don't think I would apply the work arrogant to Calleary, He does not come across as such.

I think once Mulherin gets her footing she will show she is well able to deliver. She has a lot going for her, and the tide now is in her favor.

I would agree that Dara is not the most arrogant of them, I will admit I had others in mind when I made that comment. I would however apply the term "disinterested" to a lot of the stuff that was brought to his attention looking for action and support. I would have thought it deserved much more than his response considering some of the stuff involved job creation in his constituency, albeit not in Ballina. I can point to 100 jobs that are not in Mayo as we speak, due to the arrogance of a certain Minister in FF and Dara wasn't able to stand up to that minister.

He is a "nice fella" but far less effective that many would have thought, in the pre last election context.

hsi

Avns1s wrote: »

I would agree that Dara is not the most arrogant of them, I will admit I had others in mind when I made that comment. I would however apply the term "disinterested" to a lot of the stuff that was brought to his attention looking for action and support. I would have thought it deserved much more than his response considering some of the stuff involved job creation in his constituency, albeit not in Ballina. I can point to 100 jobs that are not in Mayo as we speak, due to the arrogance of a certain Minister in FF and Dara wasn't able to stand up to that minister.

He is a "nice fella" but far less effective that many would have thought, in the pre last election context.

Agree with all the above. Nice guy, but being part of FF is now a major liability for him. He really needed to focus on the people who will elect him, since he was made junior Minster Ballina took 2nd stage.

Avns1s

finisklin wrote: »

I respect your opinion and like you I have no politcal allegiance to party or candidate. However your description of Michelle as an absolute tiger and in a previous post as a terrier falls way short of my experience as an outside observer, like you looking in but grounded from first hand experience. That is to say I have seen her in action in the council chamber (as an obsever from the viewing gallery) and though sharp procedurally and au fait with rattling her fine gael sabre agin the FFers etc I didn't see substance in her debating, influencing manner that marked her out as a robust politician that has the skillset to actually deliver. There was a timidness to her that was uninspiring, IMHO. :rolleyes:

This judgement is based on what I actually saw and experienced and not the smoke and mirrors that you read or listen to in the Western People, MWR. For example, making Liam and Noel Gallagher first citizens of Mayo (from what I can remember) is a populist, headline grabbing endeavour from a media savvy county councillor that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, frankly. These qualities are also similiar in her leader, Inda, looks great and sounds alright (not consistently) but would I have confidence in managing the country? Nope.

I think Michelle will get a seat, her challenge will be how she can negotiate with her other Mayo FG colleagues in ensuring that investment goes into the North of the county as opposed to the South and East Mayo. In that challenge she is up agin the formidable Michael Ring who is miles ahead of O'Mahony and Kenny ability wise. Plus he will have a ministry under his belt as well. The latter may help him getting round to even more funeral's given that he will have a driver and state car. :cool:

The election campaign may throw up some excitement in how she manages O'Mahony camping and infringing in her back yard..........:pac:........

I am sure her relationship with him is not that well developed due to the manner in which he carried out his campaign last time. Looking forward to another clash here.....but will be expecting Michelle to be more organised.

The county's political junkies will be lapping it up......:p:D:p

I'd agree with a lot in your post. I do think that Michelle is up and coming and will stand by right without being browbeaten. As an example, where was Beverley and Dara when the cancer services were being removed from Mayo General. I think Michelle would have stood up and been counted in a situation like that.

I don't think it was John O Mahony that created that rumpus about territory last time rather some of the FG machine. I do hope that he does retain his seat. He has shown himself to be a fine politician and would deserve a chance in government to see what he is made of.

I wouldn't quite put Ring on the pedestal of being miles ahead of the rest, he is astute at getting votes by being populist and dealing with what people need, the potholes, bushes on the road, medical cards and so on and on, but that arguably is a major part of what is wrong with Irish politics. He will do well again and fair play, but he has to be recognised as what he is.

I object to the term "Inda". I think it's very derogratory to someone who had the political wisdom and commitment to turn a party from being dead to being the post popular party in the state according to the polls. He has also been quite astute in continuing to be leader of FG after the well documented heave. He will be the next Taoiseach, barring an unfortunate miracle. He does have shortcomings, but he has a great team which he can lead well. I think he's a bit like a good football manager. The football manager has a key role but the players in each position have their roles too and should be allowed to fluorish in them. If Enda cracks this and knows how to use his team then he will make a great Taoiseach, not that you might see as much of him as we did of that clown Ahern. Enough said on that I think!!

HarryPotter41

Avns1s wrote: »

I'd agree with a lot in your post. I do think that Michelle is up and coming and will stand by right without being browbeaten. As an example, where was Beverley and Dara when the cancer services were being removed from Mayo General. I think Michelle would have stood up and been counted in a situation like that.

I don't think it was John O Mahony that created that rumpus about territory last time rather some of the FG machine. I do hope that he does retain his seat. He has shown himself to be a fine politician and would deserve a chance in government to see what he is made of.

I wouldn't quite put Ring on the pedestal of being miles ahead of the rest, he is astute at getting votes by being populist and dealing with what people need, the potholes, bushes on the road, medical cards and so on and on, but that arguably is a major part of what is wrong with Irish politics. He will do well again and fair play, but he has to be recognised as what he is.

I object to the term "Inda". I think it's very derogratory to someone who had the political wisdom and commitment to turn a party from being dead to being the post popular party in the state according to the polls. He has also been quite astute in continuing to be leader of FG after the well documented heave. He will be the next Taoiseach, barring an unfortunate miracle. He does have shortcomings, but he has a great team which he can lead well. I think he's a bit like a good football manager. The football manager has a key role but the players in each position have their roles too and should be allowed to fluorish in them. If Enda cracks this and knows how to use his team then he will make a great Taoiseach, not that you might see as much of him as we did of that clown Ahern. Enough said on that I think!!

First of all I have no idea what you think John O'Mahoney has achieved in his time in politics, an extremely personable fellow and thats about it. I find not a lot of substance to Michelle but would have her miles ahead of O'Mahoney.While I agree Enda has turned Fine Gael around, with Fianna Fail polling 13% can it really be considered an achievement to have Fine Gael hovering around what was always considered their base vote?? I don't think so. I dislike criticising the man as he is one of the finest gentlemen I have ever met, but Fine Gael should be streets ahead at a time like this.The thing with a good football manager is that he has to lead by example, so I don't know if that could be the case here. I may be proven wrong.

finisklin

Avns1s wrote: »

I object to the term "Inda". I think it's very derogratory to someone who had the political wisdom and commitment to turn a party from being dead to being the post popular party in the state according to the polls.

I am a fan of satire, enjoying Gift Grub and Nob Nation's in particular. These portrayals of Inda have rubbed off on me, probably because of my cynicism to politics and the me fein, cavalier attitude adopted by many TDs etc. I think though some of the portrayal's can be good and over exaggerated for effect. Inda's does ring through.....

Avns1s wrote: »

He does have shortcomings, but he has a great team which he can lead well. I think he's a bit like a good football manager. The football manager has a key role but the players in each position have their roles too and should be allowed to fluorish in them. If Enda cracks this and knows how to use his team then he will make a great Taoiseach,

I hope your not suggessting that O'Mahony may be a Taoiseach in waiting too!?! :rolleyes: Though his recent form as a manager was a disaster and one in which he should never have entered!

The one thing that has offered potential to Inda and shown a glimpse of his fortitude is the manner in which he saw off Richard Bruton and the rest of the merchant princes for the leadership of the party. He was actually tough and stood up and was counted....you can argue that this may have been for self preservation measures but he held onto the leadership. IMHO this is his only saving grace in which I will afford him the opportunity to wait and see....

In relation to the FG team, something is niggling inside me saying that there is a time bomb inside the party waiting to explode. The leadership contest may be one symtom of this. The fact that they can smell power, and its in their grasp and with expectations high for individual TDs etc that when the trappings are distributed their may be some disgruntled TDs. The fact that Inda has kept Bruton as a front bencher may be his undoing. Though I think that Bruton has missed the boat. Watch out for Varadkar and Hayes.;)

I am also cynical about Inda's handlng of the turnaround of the FG party from rock bottom. You could argue that no matter who ever went in the only way was up. That's how low it was.

FG in power means more ammo for Gift Grub and Nob nation.....bring it on.

finisklin

Avns1s wrote: »

And one further point, Dara got his reward for his time in this Dail. He got paid and regardless of what he delivered, if he loses his seat, he is owed nothing. He has been paid handsomely. This is one of the fundamental points that many in this government forgot, they are PAID SERVANTS of the people of this country, not controllers and dictators, which was precisely the way they behaved, and their arrogance based on this self opinion, is what has this country in the Sh**e it's in!

This is a STRONG statement and though there is some merit in it, I think it ignores serious shortcoming in the public service and the manner in which the senior mandarins actually ran the country, as distinct from their political masters. The cavalier approach in which they increased their own remunerations and in cases significantly higher than the private sector.

There was largely driven by the civil servants themselves but faciliated by Bertie who was more than happy to facilitate to hang onto power. Look at this example from the times...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1204/1224284774152.html?via=mr

A pianist employed by the Royal Irish academy of music getting €225,000 pa. stretches the imagination about how these bodies conduct their business and add value to the state. :pac:......

To close on your quote, they, unlike the politicians, ministers etc who may not be getting paid after the next general election, will still be getting paid their fat cat salaries etc. Also reminds me of why did the former county manager, the longest serving in the state at the time, and probably on over €250k pa retire before last years budget? He's was 62 or 63 at the time. The wily campaigner saw this coming and got out while he could secure his entitlements. He's sitting pretty tight now on an untouchable 6 figure pension. Plus he working as a consultant and is in and out of the council on a on going basis. :cool:

Rant over......

finisklin

Looks like FG are only running 4 candidates and not 5 as previous reported. Ja Munnelly withdrew his name from the convention.

Details here.....

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/item/1983-endas-mayo-team-ready-for-election.html

hsi

finisklin wrote: »

Looks like FG are only running 4 candidates and not 5 as previous reported. Ja Munnelly withdrew his name from the convention.

Details here.....

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/item/1983-endas-mayo-team-ready-for-election.html

So are we going to see the Battle of the Flynn/Calleary dynasties for 5th place?

Pity Jarlath did not run, FG could have managed to get all 5 seats.

HarryPotter41

hsi wrote: »

So are we going to see the Battle of the Flynn/Calleary dynasties for 5th place?

Pity Jarlath did not run, FG could have managed to get all 5 seats.

Mathematically impossible

finisklin

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Mathematically impossible

What level of support are you assuming for FF?

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

What level of support are you assuming for FF?

Even somewhere in the region of 10% to 15% and then include votes for Labour, Independents, Sinn Fein it is mathematically impossible for any party to take all the seats in the constituency.

hsi

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Even somewhere in the region of 10% to 15% and then include votes for Labour, Independents, Sinn Fein it is mathematically impossible for any party to take all the seats in the constituency.

All depends on the candidates the other parties will field. I think there is a Fianna Fail Vote the comes out regardless of who is running. For some voting for a particular party is like religion, the never change.

oscarBravo

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Even somewhere in the region of 10% to 15% and then include votes for Labour, Independents, Sinn Fein it is mathematically impossible for any party to take all the seats in the constituency.

Mathematically impossible, no. To take an extreme example: if one-fifth of the voters in the constituency gave each of five FG candidates their first preference vote, then FG would win all five seats.

Now, is it likely? No. The chances of five FG candidates winning five seats are small - perhaps vanishingly small - but the amateur mathematician in me objects to the term "mathematically impossible" to describe this.

Even taking your numbers above - if every one of the voters you've described gave a FG candidate a lower preference, it's still mathematically possible on transfers.

But not likely.