Ballina TD in next goverment - Michelle Mulherin

HarryPotter41

oscarBravo wrote: »

Mathematically impossible, no. To take an extreme example: if one-fifth of the voters in the constituency gave each of five FG candidates their first preference vote, then FG would win all five seats.

Now, is it likely? No. The chances of five FG candidates winning five seats are small - perhaps vanishingly small - but the amateur mathematician in me objects to the term "mathematically impossible" to describe this.

Even taking your numbers above - if every one of the voters you've described gave a FG candidate a lower preference, it's still mathematically possible on transfers.

But not likely.

I am talking mathematical terms as regards politics which is a field I am well familiar with. When you factor in that they will not get all the votes and that all votes will not transfer to FG and that some votes will be non transferable it is and will remain a mathematical impossibility in political terms.

oscarBravo

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

...a mathematical impossibility in political terms.

The phrase you're looking for is "a political impossibility".

HarryPotter41

oscarBravo wrote: »

The phrase you're looking for is "a political impossibility".

Not at all, I am cold calculating politico, if biased!!

alex73

Quiet a plea from cowen on primetime today, could he be looking to rally the troops?

nuac

IMHO both Mulherin and Calleary are able young candidates with a lot to offer. I hope both of them are elected.

Avns1s

nuac wrote: »

IMHO both Mulherin and Calleary are able young candidates with a lot to offer. I hope both of them are elected.

Again this while not mathematically impossible, is certainly politically unlikely.

HarryPotter41

Avns1s wrote: »

Again this while not mathematically impossible, is certainly politically unlikely.

Not entirely unlikely, could have happened at the last election, Calleary has a good base, Mulhern needs to add very little to her previous vote to put her close to the line. Ballina had two TD's for years and that was in the old East Mayo without the Belmullet hinterland.

Avns1s

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

Not entirely unlikely, could have happened at the last election, Calleary has a good base, Mulhern needs to add very little to her previous vote to put her close to the line. Ballina had two TD's for years and that was in the old East Mayo without the Belmullet hinterland.

You're right, it is possible but not likely in my opinion.

I think the FG vote will be managed tightly in terms of areas which will keep Michelle once more reliant on the Ballina + district vote. There is a possibility that people will see the value of having a Government TD versus an opposition TD which could reduce Dara's vote. Further, my opinion is that given the apathy towards FF and Daras limited delivery to anywhere outside Ballina (and imo his delivery to Ballina is also not fantastic) will leave his vote well down.

Hence I dont believe that both will get elected thought theoretically it would be possible.

finisklin

Game on.....

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/ballina-news/item/2001-lack-of-justice-driving-people-crazy-says-mulherin.html

Michelle wants more power for local councillors to hold officials accountable despite the McCarthy report recommending the abolition of town councils and amalgamation of county councils.......:rolleyes:

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

Game on.....

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/ballina-news/item/2001-lack-of-justice-driving-people-crazy-says-mulherin.html

Michelle wants more power for local councillors to hold officials accountable despite the McCarthy report recommending the abolition of town councils and amalgamation of county councils.......:rolleyes:

The report calls it wide ranging, no offence to poor Michelle, but rambling would be more appropriate.

finisklin

See Ring is sticking the knife into Calleary with his question of funding for St. Josephs National School in Bonniconlon. Something wrong somewhere if a FG TD from South of the county is challenging a sitting FF junior minister regarding funding for an area which is a traditional, FF heartland.

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/ballina-news/item/2003-bonnincolon-school-wait-continues.html

Close to the bone for Calleary given that he had Cowen out there a few months for some other school opening......:pac:.......:D

HarryPotter41

finisklin wrote: »

See Ring is sticking the knife into Calleary with his question of funding for St. Josephs National School in Bonniconlon. Something wrong somewhere if a FG TD from South of the county is challenging a sitting FF junior minister regarding funding for an area which is a traditional, FF heartland.

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/ballina-news/item/2003-bonnincolon-school-wait-continues.html

Close to the bone for Calleary given that he had Cowen out there a few months for some other school opening......:pac:.......:D

To the best of my knowledge Westport is still in the West of the county, not the south . Ring sticks the knife into everyone, including his own so no great shocker.

alex73

finisklin wrote: »

See Ring is sticking the knife into Calleary with his question of funding for St. Josephs National School in Bonniconlon. Something wrong somewhere if a FG TD from South of the county is challenging a sitting FF junior minister regarding funding for an area which is a traditional, FF heartland.

http://mayotoday.ie/index.php/local-news/ballina-news/item/2003-bonnincolon-school-wait-continues.html

Close to the bone for Calleary given that he had Cowen out there a few months for some other school opening......:pac:.......:D

Well the primary school that Dara went to did get an extension (not prefabs) not sure how much was down to him. Certainly in Ballina I see a lot of other overcrowded primary schools with prefabs.

finisklin

HarryPotter41 wrote: »

To the best of my knowledge Westport is still in the West of the county, not the south .

Didn't know the geography police were this vigilant on boards.....must go stand in the corner. :cool:

Avns1s

finisklin wrote: »

Didn't know the geography police were this vigilant on boards.....must go stand in the corner. :cool:

Nothing to do with the geography police but the county = the constituency and Ring for all his faults is one of the most astute of the sitting TDs at spotting and opportunity to pick up votes outside his nominal area, and going for it.

All of the county is fair game for them all! Pity they forget that and also that all of the county is their responsibility!!

hsi

Nice bump on the Polls for FG, let hope it carries to the ballot.

alex73

hsi wrote: »

Nice bump on the Polls for FG, let hope it carries to the ballot.

HOME

Flynn will not stand in election
21:16

MARY MINIHAN and STEPHEN COLLINS

Mayo Fianna Fáil TD Beverley Flynn has surprised colleagues by deciding not to contest the forthcoming general election.

Ms Flynn has been embroiled in controversy during her 13 years in the Dáil and was expelled from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party on three occasions.

A daughter of the former Minister and EU Commissioner Padraig Flynn, she first ran for the Dáil in 1994 in a byelection to fill the vacancy created by the departure of her father from the Dáil to take up the Commissioner’s post in Brussels. However, she lost to Michael Ring of Fine Gael.

Ms Flynn was elected to the Dáil in the general election of 1997 and was widely tipped for rapid promotion. However, two years later she ran into conflict with her party over a Dáil motion asking her father to clarify allegations about his receipt of a financial contribution from developer Tom Gilmartin. Ms Flynn voted against the motion and was expelled from the parliamentary party as a result.

She was accepted back into the parliamentary party within a year but was again expelled as a result of a failed libel action against RTÉ for a report on her activities while she worked for National Irish Bank.

She was again accepted back into the parliamentary party and ran successfully as a Fianna Fáil candidate in the 2002 general election.

In 2004 she was again expelled from the parliamentary party and also from the Fianna Fáil organisation when the Supreme Court upheld the High Court judgement in the libel case. She subsequently settled a court case with RTÉ over the €2.4 million costs of her libel action.

Ms Flynn was elected as an Independent in the 2007 general election but voted for the election of Bertie Ahern as taoiseach and was later accepted back into Fianna Fáil.

PogMoThoin

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1216/politics1.html

Life would be so tough in the opposition, best retire and get a nice pension

Connacht

Now that Flynn is gone, I would think Calleary is safe. I cannot see Mayo returning 0 FF TDs, much as I'd love to ...

hsi

Connacht wrote: »

Now that Flynn is gone, I would think Calleary is safe. I cannot see Mayo returning 0 FF TDs, much as I'd love to ...

Great news for Ballina to have 2 TD's in the Dail,,, But given the state of FF I don;t think Calleary can take his seat for granted..

hsi

So who are the 2 FF candidates for Mayo? with beverly out

http://www.westernpeople.ie/news/story/?trs=eyqlsnqley&cat=news

nuac

Re FF Castlebar based candidate - Blackie Gavin's hour has come - the only FF County Councillor living in Castlebar town.

HarryPotter41

nuac wrote: »

Re FF Castlebar based candidate - Blackie Gavin's hour has come - the only FF County Councillor living in Castlebar town.

Sweet God, please tell me you are joking.

nuac

HP1 - Blackie is as intelligent as many T.D.s, and he won his County Council seat in a hotly contested election.

HarryPotter41

nuac wrote: »

HP1 - B lackie is as intelligent as many T.D.s, and he won his County Council seat in a hotley contested election.

Please tell me you're still j0oking

minstrel_boy

Is there a list of candidates available anywhere?
I think Fine Gael have nominated there runners with the same 4 as last election

HarryPotter41

minstrel_boy wrote: »

Is there a list of candidates available anywhere?
I think Fine Gael have nominated there runners with the same 4 as last election

At the moment there are the same 4 Fine Gael candidates as the last time, Jerry Cowley for Labour. Sinn Fein will most likely pick two candidates from Rose Conway-Walsh, therese Ruane and Gerry Murray. Fianna Fail are in a slight heap at the moment with Bev pulling out. The candidates nominated for convention at the moment are Dara Calleary, Michael Smyth and John Carty. Most likely FF HQ will allow a Castlebar candidate to be nominated prior to the convention.

hsi

I see Dara is putting is name in the hat for FF leader.. Certainly with give him a boost (and FF in Mayo)

Cosmo Kramer

hsi wrote: »

I see Dara is putting is name in the hat for FF leader.. Certainly with give him a boost (and FF in Mayo)

Good tactics there, the lad hasn't a hope of being leader but he needs something to bring to people's doorsteps on the campaign trail, the 'Taoiseach and the leader of the opposition to be from Mayo' line is a nice one to offer local voters (I remember Enda offering a similar 'Taoiseach and Tanaiste (Pat Rabbitte) both from Mayo' line last time around).

Indeed with the next Taoiseach likely to be from Castlebar, Ballina will need something big to get anything worthwhile up that end of the county in the next few years.

finisklin

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Indeed with the next Taoiseach likely to be from Castlebar, Ballina will need something big to get anything worthwhile up that end of the county in the next few years.

Michelle Mulhearn :rolleyes: