The MAJOR property crash is coming

ei.sdraob

Sticky_Fingers wrote: »

Good luck finding anyone willing to do that, all the politicians and MoF bods see is an increase in revenue as fuel prices increase, they are too myopic to see that the high cost of energy in this country is going to cripple us even further, just as long as the freakshow has enough cash to stumble a little further down the road they will be happy.

At least the Greens will not be in power over the next few years, those limp wrists would probably applaud the cutting of our carbon footprint by the enforced fuel poverty placed on the population by excessive taxation while at the same time trying to ram their badger tax through the Dail.

If people make an issue of it on their doorsteps politicians will take note,

then again not many people realise why the fuel prices are so expensive in first place, sure its all the fault of da Arabs aint it :P

Dannyboy83

Permanent TSB is to increase its fixed interest rates for mortgage holders from today.

Anyone with an existing fixed-rate mortgage will not be affected.

For new fixed-rate mortgages, the two-year rate rises from 5.25% to 7.25%.

The five-year rate goes from 5.75% to 8.75%, while the seven- and 10-year rates both rise from 6.1% to 9.1%.

It means those with a five-year fixed rate mortgage at €250,000, will now have to pay an extra €500 per month.

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ptsb-to-increase-fixed-rate-mortgages-by-2-and-3-493045.html#ixzz1De81EuXJ

rodento

Was this in the pipeline or a direct result of FG stating that they were going to do something about interest rates when they get into power

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

dan_d

Following PTSB announcement today, I wholly agree with the OP.

I'm not saying it's right or wrong, simply that it was an invevitability from when it became clear how badly screwed the banks were. The only way interest rates are going is up....watch this space.

This will in turn, drive property prices down even further, particularly if more banks follow the lead of PTSB.

The annoying part in all this is that this is what they should have been doing for the last 10 years (among other things), which would have contained the bubble. It's infuriating to see them all scampering back into their little holes and realising that accountancy and economic rules exist for a reason, when they've blatantly ignored them for the last decade.

I am one very annoyed individual here. Not because I'm affected, or because I'm worried about my house price or anything like that. I'm just infuriated that they took the Irish economy for a ride for the last 10 years, they still aren't paying for it, but they expect their customers to.There's no fair division of the consequences here at all - it's entirely on the consumer and the banks get off scott free.

Very annoying.

tommy21

But won't this raise and as the rest follow, just result in more defaults on mortgages (as the previous poster said brought in over time it might have contained the bubble, but it certainly cannot contain the collateral damage now).

Essexboy

This is not an analysis which is shared by local politicians! :rolleyes:

Sligo County Council is currently discussing a new County Plan and, although the county has a surplus of houses and has zoned more land for housing than the new regional guidelines allow, the politicians are falling over themselves to rezone yet more land. Sinn Féin's councillor is particularly vociferous in this cause.

Sadly, I magine other areas have a similar story.

alejandro1977

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

These 2 articles show the future of what is to come with the property market in Ireland.
We are on the cusp of THE major crash.
Personally I believe it will be less than 12 months until the major crash really happens, at which stage Irish house prices will return to 2.5 to 3x the average industrial wage MAX.
It's likely many, many houses will fall far below that as properties will be bought and sold for cash.

It's a catch 22 situation. There is no exit.

Fair Play to you Danny.

You've come a long way.:)

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=65265476&postcount=1

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I know plenty of people who would happily buy a house with a 100% mortgage, but they cannot possibly get the deposit together in this climate.
Is it designed like this to prevent an Israel/Palestine type situation?
It makes sense for investment properties, but why use this system for primary residences?

whiteonion

Why should people be allowed to have 100% mortgages and not pay a single cent in deposits themselves? You don't think this amount of leverage is very risky?

rodento

Not if you factor in some banks were giving out multi million euro loans on the back of idle promises and in one case a 100 euro despoit :eek:

Here's the link, just shows how crazy it got

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/builder-sued-over-836419m-land-deal-sealed-with-8364100-deposit-1442490.html

Dannyboy83

alejandro1977 wrote: »

Fair Play to you Danny.

You've come a long way.:)

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=65265476&postcount=1

Thank you.
I've learned a lot since I started participating on this board and educated myself as much as possible.

Now I'm trying to share what I've learned with friends and whoever is willing to listen, to prevent them walking into a trap I very nearly could have walked into.
(I was offered a 300k mortgage in 2008 but rejected it as I wouldn't be able to repay it, then myself and my partner were refused a 180k mortgage in Sep 2010:rolleyes:)

It's really not difficult to see how people got into this mess.
Most people really understand virtually nothing about this.
It's not enough to simply blame people for their stupidity and ignorance, I genuinely believe that the Irish government have betrayed the Irish people for allowing all this to happen.

It makes me wonder why kids are forced to learn the Irish language in school yet nothing like this is ever covered - things which will change their entire lives.

For the record tho, this is such a catastrophe that many people with an 80% mortgage are going to be equally as screwed as people with a 100% mortgage.

Once you're fcuked, you're fcuked.
The degree of fcukedness is of little consequence.

Dannyboy83

whiteonion wrote: »

Why should people be allowed to have 100% mortgages and not pay a single cent in deposits themselves? You don't think this amount of leverage is very risky?

It is risky. In Ireland. In present day Ireland.
He's referring to thread a wrote a year ago, when I was ignorant of the reality of the situation.
Thankfully I'm not as ignorant as I used to be.

Do I think it's hugely risky in all situations or countries?
Nope.

Some people with 100% mortgages will be fine, while others with 60% mortgages will be screwed.
Percentages are not the problem.............Percentages don't tell you much.
If couple A has 100% mortgage for 3 times their income and person B has a 60% mortgage for 8x times their income, well, person B is liable to be in a lot more trouble.
I digress.

Fact is, this is Ireland and we are in a fairly unprecedented situation.
The perfect sh1tstorm.
And the reality is that a 60% mortgage could be considered risky in Ireland, depending on the actual figures behind those percentages.

tommy21

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Once you're fcuked, you're fcuked.
The degree of fcukedness is of little consequence.

I disagree with you on that. If some gets fcuked over - and let's leave aside the blame for this for a second - it is all relative! If they can see a way out in 5-10 years in terms of being able to pay off enough to keep the house and have some form of a life, then they are fckued but chances are they will swim rather than sink.

If someone has a gigantic mortgage on their hands, has been made redundant and the area they are working in has little chance of recovery in the future, than they are fckued to a greater degree. If someone is unable to see a way out, they may do one of several things - default on their mortgage and get on with life in debt, the same but emigrate, or as I believe will increasingly happen the suicide rate will rocket.

Dannyboy83

tommy21 wrote: »

I disagree with you on that. If some gets fcuked over - and let's leave aside the blame for this for a second - it is all relative! If they can see a way out in 5-10 years in terms of being able to pay off enough to keep the house and have some form of a life, then they are fckued but chances are they will swim rather than sink.

If someone has a gigantic mortgage on their hands, has been made redundant and the area they are working in has little chance of recovery in the future, than they are fckued to a greater degree. If someone is unable to see a way out, they may do one of several things - default on their mortgage and get on with life in debt, the same but emigrate, or as I believe will increasingly happen the suicide rate will rocket.

What if the first individual couldn't bear the fact that they were within a hair's breadth of actually pulling through and topped themselves, while the second individual shrugged their shoulders and figures they never could have repaid it all anyway so who cares.
That's all down to the individual imo.

I do see your point of course, and I agree with you on the suicide rate - it is reported to be climbing already.

I guess I should say :
The outcome is the same, either way you still end up fcuked.

Say in a normal economy, when things go awry, you can to go the end of the spectrum and count 10% backward, that's the risky category, then write all those people off.
In the current situation in Ireland, it looks like you could go to the end of the spectrum and count 40% backward, THAT'S the risky category.

People who thought they were being responsible with a 75% mortgage may be totally wiped out.

Or how about if we lose our CRT and default somewhere down the road?
Anyway, I'm going off topic now.

Pain lieth yonder.

JustinDee

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Pain lieth yonder.

Yes, so you keep saying.

Dannyboy83

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0304/1224291283180.html?via=mr
Cut-price auction offers Temple Bar flat for €80,000


PROPERTY OWNERS and auctioneers alike may well choke on their porridge this morning when they see that house prices have dropped even further overnight.

The news comes with the publication of the catalogue of Ireland’s first sale of distressed property to be held by British auctioneer Allsops, which specialises in selling properties held by banks, receivers and homeowners needing to sell quickly.

The cheapest property being put on the block is a two-bedroom tenanted apartment in Portlaoise with a top reserve of €35,000. A similar apartment in the same development, Bridle Walk, is listed for sale elsewhere at €170,000.

In Rathfarnham, a two-bedroom penthouse has a maximum reserve of €145,000 in the Allsops auction. A two-bedroom ground-floor unit in the same scheme is listed on myhome.ie for €275,000.

More than 80 properties in Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway will be offered at the auction in the Shelbourne Hotel on April 15th, which is being organised by Dublin estate agent Stephen McCarthy of Space, in alliance with Allsop, one of the largest auction houses in Britain.

Some interesting comparisons there between the realistic price and the price still being looked for.

Each property carries a maximum reserve price. However, according to McCarthy, the actual reserve prices may well be less on the day, depending on demand. However, the reserve set nearer or on the day will not exceed the published maximum reserves.

Details of properties seen by The Irish Times show these maximum reserves are well below current asking prices for similar homes.

A detached four-bedroom house on a large site in Churchtown, close to Milltown Golf Course, has a maximum reserve of €400,000 – less than three-bedroom homes are making nearby.

A large mews house on a laneway in Ballsbridge has a maximum reserve of €600,000. While there is no similar home for sale nearby, refurbished homes of a similar size in the neighbourhood have been trading around the €1 million mark.

In Temple Bar, a studio apartment on Essex Street has a maximum reserve of €80,000, a price likely to strike fear into the heart of investors with property in the area where slightly larger units trade for upwards of €140,000.

The prices are likely to shock estate agents trying to shift property in a dormant market. However, Mr McCarthy said the auction would benefit the property trade by establishing a floor from which people could build.

Gradually moving back to reality.
These prices are just about affordable to a person on the average industrial wage when you factor in interest rates.

Although it does show just how far out of touch some property agents still are.

rodento

Any word how it went

Inquitus

rodento wrote: »

Any word how it went

More than 80 properties in Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway will be offered at the auction in the Shelbourne Hotel on April 15th

GSF

Interesting lot details

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/onlineCatalogue.asp

whiteonion

Just wait until NAMA will be forced to start the fire sales. Prices have only one way to go, down like an asian hooker on a Saturday night in Bangkok!

dan_d

Anyone read the descriptions of the properties?
It's a nice change to read a description of a property that simply states the facts, rather than every second word being a gushing adjective like "fabulous" "amazing" "extensive" "superb"....
Interesting price tags too...
The individual vacant flats....where are they coming from? I know they are selling on the instructions of receivers, but who is in receivership on these? Individuals who dabbled in property investments, or small companies??And have they basically declared themselves bankrupt for their properties to end up in this sale?

clinvestor

All of the properties at the auction in the Shelbourne next month are BoSI properties. They have put in a mix of premises in the auction to test what the market is willing to purchase. Moving distressed properties off their books is their first priority, even more so that recouping outstanding finance. They are planning a follow up auction in the next few months and I am sure that this first auction will have an influence on future auctions.

professore

Highly Salami wrote: »

Banks/building societies.
Irish banks have been massively capatalised recently. If you still don't think they will lend, there are always foreign banks (National Irish Bank are owned by Danske Bank).

HAHAAAHHAAAAHHHAAAAAA !!!! Best joke I heard this year so far !

ei.sdraob

http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/0312/media-2923177.html#

well so here we have a firesale, doesnt seem like the end of the world as we where told before :rolleyes:

clinvestor

ei.sdraob wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/0312/media-2923177.html#

well so here we have a firesale, doesnt seem like the end of the world as we where told before :rolleyes:

This is not really a firesale. It is a bank that has a lot of distressed properties on its books and this particular bank is trying to get out of Ireland. It is looking at the most efficient way to clear its books of all these properties. If you look at the diversity of prices, types of properties and locations it shows that they are looking to see the profile of properties that will sell at this type of auction.

TKline

Property bubbles are bursting all over the world. Ireland, UK, USA, Spain, and now the Australian bubble is finally at bursting point, and WILL collapse this year...

Bubblepedia - The truth about Aussie house prices – and how the property industry has covered it up

Now they’re panicking.

They’re panicking because they’ve known all along that the housing shortage claim was just a massive hoax. And now it’s been exposed.

Spread by every vested interest going around – the real estate industry, the property spruikers, the overleveraged property investors, the over-leveraged banks, those allied to the property industry. You name them, they’ve all had their nose in the housing shortage trough. Conning buyers into paying top-dollar for a super risky asset.

But as owners realise their mistake they’ll start to sell. That’s when you get the real flood of sellers, not a piddly 400 extra ones. Sellers who are eager to get out before everyone else have the same idea.

You see this kind of price action on the stock market all the time as sellers leapfrog to get out of a position. They do the same to get into a position. That’s how the bubble forms. The rush to get out pushes the prices even lower until the price is oversold.

The only – and it is the only – difference is that because housing is less liquid than share trading it takes longer for this effect to occur. It doesn’t happen on a second-by-second or minute-by-minute basis like the stock market. It happens over the course of many months.

And perhaps, just perhaps, the first stage of the flood is beginning. You can see the impact that just 400 extra house sales is having on the psyche of property spruikers, just wait until that trickle becomes a real flood.

But still the excuses come.

That’s all they are, excuses. Nothing the spruikers or bankers come up with has any basis in fact or logic. It’s a constant stream of excuses. They know that each one only has a limited shelf life and so they have to quickly think up another.’

soontobesmokin

Dannyboy83 , a legend !

Watch that space !

Johnny Derpp

Would love to see how it turns out.

rodento

Interesting dilemma

Buy now and get mortgage relief worth 30000 or spend 30000 in rent and buy when the price drops 30% but you wont get mortgage relief and interest rates will have rocketed

djmcr

rodento wrote: »

Interesting dilemma

interest rates will have rocketed

You will still have to pay the higher interest rates or fix now at a much higher rate

gurramok

djmcr wrote: »

You will still have to pay the higher interest rates or fix now at a much higher rate

And every buyer(FTB) is in the same boat. More downward pressure on prices.