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Betting Systems?

1356

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    Reminds me of a story of a son heading off to vegas to test out his new betting system with a stake from his father.

    Several weeks later his father received a telegram.

    "System working great, send more money"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Technically, you could say that a player that picks the £250,000 box four times in a row has as much "chance" of picking it a fifth time, but the probability (the true odds) of them doing so, are very slim indeed.

    How do you work out the true odds though?

    I mean if I flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads every time what are the true odds of tails now?

    And what about following the rush? Could you not say it's on a rush of heads you should bet heads? :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 388 ✭✭gondorff


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Technically, you could say that a player that picks the £250,000 box four times in a row has as much "chance" of picking it a fifth time, but the probability (the true odds) of them doing so, are very slim indeed.

    I don't watch the show, I think there are 15 boxes to begin with?

    Then granted, the "true odds" of picking this box five times in a row are prohibitive (1/759375) but...

    Let's say a player has been lucky enough to have made the right selection four times in a row... Are you making him a worse than 1/15 chance to choose correctly a 5th time?

    If so, your neural pathways are fundamentally hardwired to misunderstand mathematical logic.

    Any amount of persuasive discussion will not convince you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    How do you work out the true odds though?

    Well, first if all - we are using words where the meanings are objective to some degree and so I think it's more important to try and see each other's points.

    Let's take a horse race of 10 runners, if you just used mathematics, each horse would be 9/1. They are not though as they fluctuate as other factors that are taken into consideration other than statistical probability. So odds are not always based on just mathematics.

    There are bets such as Blackjack where there the "fixed odds" do not always reflect the "true odds".

    You say how can they be worked out, well - that's the million dollar question. Some players card count, some attempt to use instinct and some use probability and play the percentages.
    I mean if I flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads every time what are the true odds of tails now?

    Well, the true odds of Heads coming up another ten times in a row, are a hell of lot less than they were to begin with as obviousily, the chances/probability of 10 Heads coming up in a row is less than the chances of 20 Heads coming out.
    And what about following the rush? Could you not say it's on a rush of heads you should bet heads? :confused:

    You could, but after a streak of Ten heads, my money is going to be on Tails coming out at some point in the next ten spins.
    gondorff wrote: »
    Let's say a player has been lucky enough to have made the right selection four times in a row... Are you making him a worse than 1/15 chance to choose correctly a 5th time?

    Yes.
    gondorff wrote: »
    If so, your neural pathways are fundamentally hardwired to misunderstand mathematical logic.

    No sir, if you think the chances or probability of someone picking the £250,000 box four times in a row, is precisely the same as them picking it 5 times in a row, then it is your mathematical logic that is flawed not mine.
    gondorff wrote: »
    Any amount of persuasive discussion will not convince you.

    Ditto.

    The fixed mathematical odds of last week's six numbers coming out again in this weeks Lottery are the precisily as they were.

    Do you think the chances / probability of those same six numbers coming out again are the same??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Well, the true odds of Heads coming up another ten times in a row, are a hell of lot less than they were to begin with as obviousily, the chances/probability of 10 Heads coming up in a row is less than the chances of 20 Heads coming out.
    :confused:

    but what about before the 10 in a row. What about if it was 10 in a row tails, are we back to 50/50 then?

    Really, you're saying, it's only 50/50 when it's straight out of the mint. Or does the 50/50 start just when you begin to observe the object?

    Anyway, since you mentioned them, I'm off to find some racehorses that haven't won in a long time, they're obviously due to come up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Look, we are ALWAYS at 50/50, please stop suggesting that what I am saying goes against the mathematical odds.

    What I am talking about is probability and that changes, whether you want to accept it or not.

    :confused:

    I thought the probability was 50/50?
    please stop suggesting that what I am saying goes against the mathematical odds.

    I have to say I'm confused. You're saying it's still 50/50, but at the same time it's not? When does it stop being 50% chance?

    OutlawPete wrote: »

    But hey, why let what I actually said get in the way of you wanting to be trite.

    Hmm, can horses not be due to come up too? Or is it just roulette?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    I have to say I'm confused. You're saying it's still 50/50, but at the same time it's not?

    It is ALWAYS 50/50 because there are only two possible outcomes!

    If you go into Paddy Power tomorrow and tell him you are going flip a coin and you want odds on it landing Heads 5th times in a row, you will get different odds than if you asked him to quote you on it landing Heads 10 times in a row.

    Why, when according to you - they should be the same.

    When a gambler interjects at the 6th flip and intends to keep placing bets (possible ten) right through to the 15th flip, he is still using the same difference in proabilty/chance that Paddy Power used when giving different quotes when the two scenarios were presented to him.

    The only difference is, that one bet is placed before the action commences and the other, in running.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    It is ALWAYS 50/50 because there are only two possible outcomes!

    If you go into Paddy Power tomorrow and tell him you are going flip a coin and you want odds on it landing Heads 5th times in a row, you will get different odds than if you asked him to quote you on it landing Heads 10 times in a row.

    Why, when according to you - they should be the same.

    When a gambler interjects at the 6th flip and intends to keep placing bets (possible ten) right through to the 15th flip, he is still using the same difference in proabilty/chance that Paddy Power used when giving different quotes when the two scenarios were presented to him.

    The only difference is, that one bet is placed before the action commences and the other, in running.

    I have to say you've lost me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Hmm, can horses not be due to come up too? Or is it just roulette?

    There are far to many factors involved in horse racing to just say that one horse has to win eventually.
    but what about before the 10 in a row. What about if it was 10 in a row tails, are we back to 50/50 then?

    Look, we are ALWAYS at 50/50, please stop suggesting that what I am saying goes against the mathematical odds.

    What I am talking about is probability and that changes, whether you want to accept it or not.
    Anyway, since you mentioned them, I'm off to find some racehorses that haven't won in a long time, they're obviously due to come up.

    That is in direct contradiction to what I said above, did you miss:
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Let's take a horse race of 10 runners, if you just used mathematics, each horse would be 9/1. They are not though as they fluctuate as other factors that are taken into consideration other than statistical probability. So odds are not always based on just mathematics.

    But hey, why let what I actually said get in the way of you wanting to be trite.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Look, we are ALWAYS at 50/50, please stop suggesting that what I am saying goes against the mathematical odds.

    What I am talking about is probability and that changes, whether you want to accept it or not.


    So probability isn't about mathematical odds? :confused:

    Sorry if it seems like I'm being obtuse. I'm just trying to grasp how this works before implementing my martingale system.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Sorry if it seems like I'm being obtuse. I'm just trying to grasp how this works before implementing my martingale system.

    More triteness.

    I am NOT recommending the Matingale system and have given examples of how it can bankrupt someone.

    I said it is mathematically foolproof though when it comes to 50/50 betting scenarios, which it is.
    I have to say you've lost me.

    Christ man.

    Let say I am going to flip a coin.

    I want you to give me odds on it coming out 'Heads up' 5 times in a row.

    I also want you to give me odds of it coming out 'Heads up' 10 times in a row.

    You are going to give me two different odds, right.

    Now tell me why.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Christ man.

    Let say I am going to flip a coin.

    I want you to give me odds on it coming out 'Heads up' 5 times in a row.

    I also want you to give me odds of it coming out 'Heads up' 10 times in a row.

    You are going to give me two different odds, right.

    Now tell me why.

    1/2^5
    1/2^10

    it's 50% of heads each time?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,151 ✭✭✭BQQ


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    It is ALWAYS 50/50 because there are only two possible outcomes!

    If you go into Paddy Power tomorrow and tell him you are going flip a coin and you want odds on it landing Heads 5th times in a row, you will get different odds than if you asked him to quote you on it landing Heads 10 times in a row.

    Why, when according to you - they should be the same.

    No, he's not saying they should be the same. obviously a 10 bet accumulator will be bigger odds than a 5-bet accumulator.

    He's saying paddypower would give the same odds on 10 heads in a row as they would give on 5 heads in a row and any specific combination of 5 heads/tails.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    1/2^5
    1/2^10

    it's 50% of heads each time?

    Precisely.

    And interjecting when the coin has landed 'Heads Up' 5 times in a row and placing bets until the 15th flip (if needs be) plays on the fact the odds of each scenario happening, are different.

    This is why, when you are at a Blackjack table.

    The higher the maximum bet, the higher the minimum is also, as it stifles progressive betting systems.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    And interjecting when the coin has landed 'Heads Up' 5 times in a row and placing bets until the 15th flip (if needs be) plays on the fact the odds of each scenario happening, are different.

    Yeah but what happens if some other guy at the table has bet on it going HHHHHTHHHH, which is also 1/2^10, now we're back to 50/50 again?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,151 ✭✭✭BQQ


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Precisely.

    And interjecting when the coin has landed 'Heads Up' 5 times in a row and placing bets until the 15th flip (if needs be) plays on the fact the odds of each scenario happening, are different.

    Again its the different number of events that make the odds different.
    HHHHHHHHHH has the same odds as HHHHHTTTTT which has the same odds as HHHHHHTTHT and so on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Yeah but what happens if some other guy at the table has bet on it going HHHHHTHHHH, which is also 1/2^10, now we're back to 50/50 again?

    You keep on saying that we are "back at 50/50".

    We are ALWAYS at 50/50.

    What progressive systems are betting on is WHEN the 50/50 will go the opposite way to which it is currently, with regards to roulette.

    American roulette wheels have 00 and 0 to give the house the edge and so gamblers are NEVER getting true odds there anyway on any bet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    You keep on saying that we are "back at 50/50".

    We are ALWAYS at 50/50.

    What progressive systems are betting on is WHEN the 50/50 will go the opposite way to which it is currently, with regards to roulette.

    American roulette wheels have 00 and 0 to give the house the edge and so gamblers are NEVER getting true odds there anyway on any bet.

    how can 50/50 go in any way other than 50/50?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    BQQ wrote: »
    Again its the different number of events that make the odds different.
    HHHHHHHHHH has the same odds as HHHHHTTTTT which has the same odds as HHHHHHTTHT and so on.

    Of course, but it is completely different to what I am talking about.

    The odds of predicting that any set of outcomes (with coin flips) will be the same, if the number of flips are the same.

    We are specifically talking about the same side of a 50/50 bet coming up consecutively.

    The mathematical odds are the same, but the 'chances' are not.

    As in my example of lottery numbers.

    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »

    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    how can 50/50 go in any way other than 50/50?

    It can't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    It can't.
    that progressive systems are betting on is WHEN the 50/50 will go the opposite way to which it is currently

    So...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    :pac:

    So, with this laugh, you are saying that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks running are the same?

    So, if a newsreader comes on tomorrow's news and says:

    "Last weeks numbers are the same as this weeks. what are the chances?"

    You will laugh at him and say the chances are the same?? :p
    So...

    What do you mean "So".

    You said: "Now we're back to 50/50 again" ..

    .. and I'm pointing out that the bet is always based on the 50/50 principal.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    So, with this laugh, you are saying that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks running are the same?

    As long as no one tells the numbers; then yeah?

    OutlawPete wrote: »

    What do you mean "So".

    You said: "Now we're back to 50/50 again" ..

    .. and I'm pointing out that the bet is always based on 50/50.

    Just pointing out you're not making any sense?
    that progressive systems are betting on is WHEN the 50/50 will go the opposite way to which it is currently
    how can 50/50 go in any way other than 50/50?
    It can't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,151 ✭✭✭BQQ


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The mathematical odds are the same, but the 'chances' are not.

    As in my example of lottery numbers.

    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.


    I don't get what the difference is between odds and probability in your example.
    the odds of any 6 numbers coming out is, let's say, 10 million to one.
    the odds of the same numbers coming out the next week is, as you say, the same.

    So, what's the probability that's different from 10 million to one?:confused:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Just pointing out you're not making any sense?

    You're not pointing out anything.

    The fixed mathematical odds of a single coin flip don't change, the probability does.

    Flipping a coin is ALWAYS 50/50.

    If you want to take the stance that the probability of 5 Heads coming up in a row and 15 coming up in a row - are somehow the same, that's fine.

    It's just it's a nonsensical stance, that's all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The fixed mathematical odds of a single coin flip don't change, the probability does.

    What does probability mean?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,049 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Even though instinctively I'd agree with Pete and I'd probably be backing red if black had come up 5 times in a row, when you think about it, it's exactly the same, eg. HHHHHHH has exactly the same odds of coming up as HHHHHHT, so it shouldn't really influence your decision.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    What does probability mean?

    Read Games, Gods and Gambling.

    A classic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »

    can you not just tell me :confused:

    also is the "probability" of HHHHHHT different to HHHHHHH?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    can you not just tell me :confused:

    I think it is very obvious what I mean when I say 'chance' and 'probability'.

    I have given many examples at this stage.

    Do you think that there is a roulette table in the world that has hit Black two hundred times in a row?

    If not, why not?
    ..also is the "probability" of HHHHHHT different to HHHHHHH?

    To close to call.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    I think it is very obvious what I mean when I say 'chance' and 'probability'.

    Not when you say things like:
    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    OutlawPete wrote: »
    To close to call.

    lolz. but they are different?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    lolz. but they are different?

    Of course they are different, extremely.

    Are you really comparing one coin coming up Tails, after a sequence of coming up Heads six times - to the same six numbers in the lottery coming out two weeks in a row??

    :p

    Please.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Of course they are different, extremely.

    Are you really comparing one coin coming up Tails, after a sequence of coming up Heads six times - to the same six numbers in the lottery coming out two weeks in a row??

    :p

    Please.

    nah i was comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    nah i was comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH?

    Yes and you quoted me referring to the lotto numbers and said:
    lolz. but they are different?

    You're waffling now, good luck.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    I was replying to two different points. Sorry if you couldn't grasp that.
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    You're waffling now, good luck.


    lolz.


    just one last question before you go. if we repainted the lotto balls so they're all randomised again would that reset the probability and make last weeks numbers just as likely? or how does that work? do they still have a memory? or is it the actual digit themselves that matter?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    I was replying to two different points. Sorry if you couldn't grasp that.

    You weren't.

    You were comparing me saying that the probability HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH was too close to call and my also saying, that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row wasn't.

    When I laughed at that, you then say you were just comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH.

    Laughable again.
    .. just one last question before you go. if we repainted the lotto balls so they're all randomised again would that reset the probability and make last weeks numbers just as likely? or how does that work? do they still have a memory? or is it the actual digit themselves that matter?

    You are building up an argument and implying it is one I subscribe too, just so you can knock it down.

    No roulette table, no lottery machine and no coin has a memory and suggesting that I think it does, just shows that you fail to grasp the point.

    I see you conveniently never answered my question, I'll repeat it:

    Do you think that there is a roulette table in the world that has hit a sequence of one hundred or more Blacks or Reds in a row?

    If not, why not?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    I actually thought you were trolling up until a few posts ago, but you actually genuinely believe in this :confused:
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    You weren't.

    You were comparing me saying that the probability HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH was too close to call and my also saying, that the probability of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row wasn't.

    When I laughed at that, you then say you were just comparing HHHHHHT to HHHHHHH.

    Laughable again.

    Pretty laughable that either you're really delusional or you lack reading comprehension skills imo. I was laughing at the fact you think that the probability of HHHHHHT was different to HHHHHHH.

    I was also pointing out I've no idea what you mean by probability because it's completely different to everyone elses!

    OutlawPete wrote: »
    No roulette table, no lottery machine and no coin has a memory and suggesting that I think it does, just shows that you fail to grasp the point.

    You're point is after a certain amount of heads come up tails is more likely to come up? Even though that's totally illogical?


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    I see you conveniently never answered my question, I'll repeat it:

    Do you think that there is a roulette table in the world that has hit a sequence of one hundred or more Blacks or Reds in a row?

    If not, why not?

    I've no idea if it has. At 1/2^100 it's improbable but not impossible. But even if it did happen the probability of black or red for the next spin would be exactly the same as any point along that sequence.

    Now I've answered your question, could you please tell me what you mean by probability?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    I actually thought you were trolling up until a few posts ago, but you actually genuinely believe in this :confused:

    Yeah, I signed up five years ago just so I could troll this thread.
    Pretty laughable that either you're really delusional or you lack reading comprehension skills imo. I was laughing at the fact you think that the probability of HHHHHHT was different to HHHHHHH.

    I NEVER said it was "different", it is your "comprehension skills" that ain't up too much.

    I said it was "too close to call".

    You then quoted that answer and included my comments re: Lottery numbers, so you were suggesting that the two answers contradicted each other, they didn't.
    You're point is after a certain amount of heads come up tails is more likely to come up?

    It's is inevitable that Tails will come up eventually and the more time that passes.
    Even though that's totally illogical?

    To you it is.
    I've no idea if it has. At 1/2^100 it's improbable but not impossible.

    Not impossible? :p

    Who said it was?

    Mathematically, when someone flips a coin - there is no guarantee which way it will land, right? So, mathematically there is also no guarantee that it will ever land either tails or heads.

    It is however, IMPROBABLE!!

    It's not impossible that you will never win another hand of Poker, but you still play it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    I'll write two separate posts so as not to confuse you.
    I said it was "too close to call".

    What does that mean exactly? Are you saying they're not the same? If so why?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    It's is inevitable that Tails will come up eventually and the more time that passes.

    My coin has come up heads ten times in a row. In percentage terms how likely is tails to come up on the next toss?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    I'll write two separate posts so as not to confuse you.

    Why are you being so condescending exactly?
    What does that mean exactly? Are you saying they're not the same? If so why?

    It means it is too close to call.

    If I was with someone and they flipped a coin and it landed six times 'Heads up' - I would think it too close to call as to which way it was going to go and would not have a 'single' bet on it.

    I would however use progressive betting there for sure.
    My coin has come up heads ten times in a row. In percentage terms how likely is tails to come up on the next toss?

    50%.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    Why are you being so condescending exactly?

    I was just trying to be helpful.
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    50%.

    So how is HHHHHHHHHHT not exactly the same as HHHHHHHHHHH?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    I was just trying to be helpful.

    No, you were being condescending by suggesting that I would be confused by two questions within the one post.
    So how is HHHHHHHHHHT not exactly the same as HHHHHHHHHHH?

    The "same" in what way?

    I have said now many many many times that the "odds" of a coin landing Tails or Heads is ALWAYS 50/50, I am not going to keep repeating this.

    It's the probability that the outcome will eventually go Tails after a long sequence of Heads that is the position I am taking.

    Mathematics tells us that it is not impossible for a coin to infinitely land heads up, observation tells us otherwise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,895 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    No, you were being condescending by suggesting that I would be confused by two questions within the one post.

    Just didn't want it to happen a second time.
    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The "same" in what way?

    I have said now many many many times that the "odds" of a coin landing Tails or Heads is ALWAYS 50/50, I am not going to keep repeating this.

    It's the that the outcome will eventually go Tails after a long sequence of Heads that is the position I am taking.

    Mathematics tells us that it is not impossible for a coin to infinitely land heads up, observation tells us otherwise.

    Kinda bored now so I think I'm done. I just find it strange that you understand that each toss if 50/50 yet you seem to have created a new meaning for probability in your head where it's not the same as odds and instead after a certain sequence certain things while still being 50/50 are more likely.
    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    I mean, wtf does this mean.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,226 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    OutlawPete wrote: »
    The odds of the same six numbers coming out two weeks in a row are the same, the probability is not.

    Do you realise that you can calculate odds from probabilities and vice versa?

    So if the odds are the same then it follows that the probability is also the same.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Just didn't want it to happen a second time.

    You thought it happened, it didn't - as I showed.

    Which you confirmed with you reply, so going back and suggesting the same again, is amusing.
    I just find it strange that you understand that each toss if 50/50 yet you seem to have created a new meaning for probability in your head where it's not the same as odds and instead after a certain sequence certain things while still being 50/50 are more likely.

    No, I haven't changed any meaning.

    We are dealing with terms here that are objective.

    Casinos will give Odds on events that are not the true 'odds' at all for instance.

    When it comes to probability, I am refering to it as such, because they are events which are improbable based on human observation - so a very apt word as it goes.
    I mean, wtf does this mean.

    It means that it is highly improbable that the same six numbers will come out in the Lottery, two weeks running - yet the mathematical odds of it happening are the same.

    Just as it is highly improbable that a coin will land 'Heads Up' twenty times in a row, yet the odds of it happening are just the same as any other random sequence.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,689 ✭✭✭✭OutlawPete


    Pherekydes wrote: »
    Do you realise that you can calculate odds from probabilities and vice versa?

    Yes, but we are talking about specific situations where that is not done.

    Coin tossing and Roulette being used as examples.

    Card counting is an effort at working out 'true odds' based on probability - in a situation where 'fixed odds' are only available.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 388 ✭✭gondorff


    gondorff wrote: »
    Any amount of persuasive discussion will not convince you.

    1236166573_steven_seagal_shooting_kids.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,749 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Out of interest if you tossed a coin 10000 times, what would you guys expect the longest successive sequence of Heads or Tails to be?

    Gut instinct guess?
    I'll sim it and report back in 20 mins.


This discussion has been closed.
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