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The Freeze bites back -6th December onwards (All discussion here please)
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ECM from Sunday on (120hrs) is extraordinary for people who like the current sort of weather
Very cold at night - frost and ice - not too cold be day, 5 or 6C.
Monday 144hrs
Slack Easterly established again. Getting increasingly cold with wintry showers into the East
Tuesday 168hrs
More hail/sleet showers in the East turning to snow. Temperatures struggling 2 - 4C. Dry in most places though but very frosty and icy inland.
Wednesday 192hrs
Heavier snow showers in the east and north and further inland - temperatures not getting above freezing by day in many places like recently. Again ice and frost an issue. Not too windy though so windchill not too bad.
After that it goes a bit mad in terms of cold for later next week - may aswell post but won't bother commenting
216hrs
240hrs
It's just a possibility at this stage. Not certain by any means.
where did you get these charts?0 -
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This spell equals jan '87.Elmer Blooker wrote: »What about the heavy fall of Jan 1987? Anyone old enough to remember 1982 should be able to remember 1987.
Of course the reason why 82 is still fondly remembered is the big freeze that followed. The 1987 fall thawed almost immediately and is now more or less forgotten.
In terms of longevity,it's not equalling 1982 yet,simply because preceding jan 82 there was december 81 when there were a lot of snowfalls and prolonged perishing cold.
The snowfall of this current spell has came nowhere near the 3 day blizzard of jan '82 where if memory serves a ship sank in the irish sea due to the strong seas and the weight of snow on board...and we had drifts 10ft high at sea level.
Snow drifts at croghan on the wicklow wexford border on high ground reached the tops of the tree's in the woods,and thats over 30 feet.
There were helicopter food drops to rural areas in the hills of Dublin and wicklow as roads had disappeared under the massive drifts.
As a child,it's something I'll never forget.
Yes this current snow as impressive as it is for recent years is still only a baby snow compared to january '82
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Pity you couldn't predict a 30+ degrees summer
Reminding myself of MT's winter forecast... spot on so far I think!
"Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.
Pity you couldn't predict a 30+ degrees summer
My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.
Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the
U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in
December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before
Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.
The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.
February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.
Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.
In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.
One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.
In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.
Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.
Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November."
Posted on Nov 15th.0 -
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Flan_Da_Man125 wrote: »ok.. im new to this so there is no need to be so harsh about it. its not the end of the world either... calm down. i know for future now thanks
You're grand, I just have a particular hatred for txtspk. Apologies for the abruptness!
In anwer to your question by the way I'd say it's way too early to tell whether or not there'll be snow down south in a week or two. Accurately forcasting snow is hard enough for Met.ie on the same bloody day! :P0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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