The Mini Ice Age Starts Here

th3 s1aught3r

Discodog wrote: »

The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html#ixzz17L2KFCXB

So should we be making preparations for colder winters ?

Has the emphasis on global warning ignored a potentially more serious issue for Ireland ?

Stopped reading when I saw it was in the Daily Mail

sh1tstirrer

Bjorn Bored. wrote: »

we are not running out of oil,thats another load of cobblers.

Back in the 70's we were told that oil was running out fast and it would become scarce. There is a lot of it burnt since then and it keeps coming.

Godge

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055544236

The above thread should answer some of your questions about the mini ice-age

Discodog

Pangea wrote: »

Ok the day before the budget and the week after the IMF forces us to loan 85 Billion and you talk about the cold spell costing us a lot . Its nothing compared to what those feckers in the Dail are gona put us through at least with snow it gives people some joy. :pac:

Joy for a very few & abject misery for most. Does your definition of joy include more accidents/injuries, hugely increased journey times, higher fuel bills etc etc. ?.

I have always fancied going on a storm chasing trip but I wonder how I would cope with the joy of seeing a tornado & balancing it against wrecked lives.

Btw the way the IMF haven't forced us - we managed it all by ourselves.

Mmcd

Discodog wrote: »

Joy for a very few & abject misery for most. Does your definition of joy include more accidents/injuries, hugely increased journey times, higher fuel bills etc etc. ?.

I have always fancied going on a storm chasing trip but I wonder how I would cope with the joy of seeing a tornado & balancing it against wrecked lives.

Btw the way the IMF haven't forced us - we managed it all by ourselves.

If you can't change the outcome of something it really is irrelevant how you feel about it. In fact I would go as far as to say I feel sorry for someone who can't see it for its beauty. Two people can experience the same hardship etc.. but one still gets to marvel at it. I know which one I'd rather be!

Discodog

Mmcd wrote: »

If you can't change the outcome of something it really is irrelevant how you feel about it. In fact I would go as far as to say I feel sorry for someone who can't see it for its beauty. Two people can experience the same hardship etc.. but one still gets to marvel at it. I know which one I'd rather be!

Well I would not recommend asking someone who has had their house wiped out by a tornado or who has lost a loved one on a snowy road if the weather is beautiful & marvellous.

Of course even the most adverse weather has a beauty unless one is on the receiving end.

BEASTERLY

Discodog wrote: »

Well I would not recommend asking someone who has had their house wiped out by a tornado or who has lost a loved one on a snowy road that the weather is beautiful & marvellous.

Of course even the most adverse weather has a beauty unless one is on the receiving end.

Correct me if im wrong but there hasnt been any fatal road accidents since the snow began two weeks ago. I know there was a related death in carlow this morning alright. The roads have actually become safer due to lower speeds etc. So if on fatal crash is caused by snow 5 more could have been prevented by it. The alternative is rain and strong winds which can be responsible for plenty more road deaths than snowy conditions.

And as was said before, its out of our control, we may aswell enjoy it.

''nothing is good or bad, but thinking makes it so''

Discodog

How many successive cold winters would it take to justify the idea of a mini ice age ?.

isle of man

Discodog wrote: »

How many successive cold winters would it take to justify the idea of a mini ice age ?.

when theres real proof of it.
2 cold winters does not make it a mini ice age

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

''nothing is good or bad, but thinking makes it so''

Shakespeare fan?! :P

Discodog

Discodog wrote: »

How many successive cold winters would it take to justify the idea of a mini ice age ?.

isle of man wrote: »

when theres real proof of it.
2 cold winters does not make it a mini ice age

What proof and how long?

I would expect to see polar ice extending beyond it's 20th century average extent as an indicator of a long term cooling trend.

But I don't think it's a mini ice age as such, more a change of weather patttern, if it is linked to solar activity, then we can expect a decade or two (or more) of colder winters, but no ice age*

*no glaciers forming on the shannon.

Discodog

So we have some cold winters & governments, especially the Scots, are under pressure to buy proper snow clearing equipment. When can you reasonable state that we are facing colder winters ?.

A decade or two of colder winters has immense implications. If we were to have regular winters like last year it would necessitate a totally different approach to snow & ice.

gbee

Discodog wrote: »

A decade or two of colder winters has immense implications. If we were to have regular winters like last year it would necessitate a totally different approach to snow & ice.

Yes, mind you we used be better prepared for cold winters in Ireland, but for the last 50 years or more it was becoming a rare necessity.

Also a big change has taken place in local authorities, Health & Safety, work practices, budgets and bureaucracy.

When I was a boy, anyone with drivers licence could drive a council digger or scraper [excellent snow ploughs BTW] and they got a few bob in the hand and a pint or a drop, job done!

This year we have councils threatening legal action because people want to throw grit on the ice and the councils say they need permits and a safety course ........... BONKERS.

I welcome our new snow overlords!

gothwalk

In my opinion, if the rest of this winter brings more snow and ice, and 2011/2012 is similar, then it'll be time to start changing the policies and recognising that we need the infrastructure to handle colder weather. This basically comes down to there being plans in place for local authorities to clear snow and grit roads, and whatever changes need to be made to keep the buses running.

It may, of course, all change again, even after three in a row, but it's beyond coincidence and happenstance at that point.

gbee wrote: »

This year we have councils threatening legal action because people want to throw grit on the ice and the councils say they need permits and a safety course ........... BONKERS.

At the moment, that's happening because it's exceptional. If it becomes ordinary, things will adjust, and there'll be some middle ground whereby people are expected to clear their own driveways (as in most countries where winter has an impact) and local authorities will deal with public areas.

dloob

drdeadlift wrote: »

I didnt know the earth stopped producing oil,i thought the oil from the deepwaterhorizon was a continuous flow as the oil was/is being produced right now.Cant find the name fro that type of oil.

It's called abiotic oil, how much oil is produced that way is a bit of a heated topic.
Current thinking is very little, a few dissagree of course.

As for the mini ice age I heard a bit about it on the radio recently.
A climatologist from Galway mentioned that the liffey was frozen over one year on june 23rd.
I'm afraid can't remember what year they said it was.
During that time there were also hard frosts and snow in August.

gothwalk

dloob wrote: »

As for the mini ice age I heard a bit about it on the radio recently.
A climatologist from Galway mentioned that the liffey was frozen over one year on june 23rd.
I'm afraid can't remember what year they said it was.
During that time there were also hard frosts and snow in August.

He was either smoking something or talking about the real ice age. The Liffey has not frozen in June any time since records or even history began, and indeed, if it did, we'd have a record of it as "that year everyone in Ireland died".

In order for the Liffey to freeze over, it would take sustained sub-zero temperatures for days. That would assure that every crop in the country - and in June, that's all of them - was dead, and without modern shipping, everybody in the country would starve to death over the following months.

Snow in August is possible. I've seen a few snow-flakes in July, in the foothills of the Wicklow Mountains a bit west of Bray. Of course, it melted as soon as it appeared, and lasted for about 30 seconds in total. You won't get more than that.

A hard frost in August is less likely; as before, you'd need sustained cold for hours for that to happen, and clear skies - pretty much necessary for frost in all but the very coldest of periods - mean that the land is getting well warmed by the sun for all the long hours of daylight.

So I think you must have missed some context.

Panrich

For people advocating deeper drilling etc. as an answer to a shortage of easily available land based supply, I would urge an exploration of the term ERoEI.

Speak Now

Discodog wrote: »

How many successive cold winters would it take to justify the idea of a mini ice age ?.

Well the little ice age was from the 16th to 19th Centurys

Panrich

gothwalk wrote: »

He was either smoking something or talking about the real ice age. The Liffey has not frozen in June any time since records or even history began, and indeed, if it did, we'd have a record of it as "that year everyone in Ireland died".

In order for the Liffey to freeze over, it would take sustained sub-zero temperatures for days. That would assure that every crop in the country - and in June, that's all of them - was dead, and without modern shipping, everybody in the country would starve to death over the following months.

Snow in August is possible. I've seen a few snow-flakes in July, in the foothills of the Wicklow Mountains a bit west of Bray. Of course, it melted as soon as it appeared, and lasted for about 30 seconds in total. You won't get more than that.

A hard frost in August is less likely; as before, you'd need sustained cold for hours for that to happen, and clear skies - pretty much necessary for frost in all but the very coldest of periods - mean that the land is getting well warmed by the sun for all the long hours of daylight.

So I think you must have missed some context.

The mount tambura earthquake in 1816 caused major problems globally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

gothwalk

Panrich wrote: »

The mount tambura earthquake in 1816 caused major problems globally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Yes, it did. It lowered global temperatures by a small amount, and caused some unseasonal frost and snow in North America. And there wasn't much sunshine to be had anywhere. Even that amount of change brought about crop failures in Ireland.

It did not, and could not, cause the Liffey to freeze in June.

dloob

gothwalk wrote: »

He was either smoking something or talking about the real ice age. The Liffey has not frozen in June any time since records or even history began, and indeed, if it did, we'd have a record of it as "that year everyone in Ireland died".

In order for the Liffey to freeze over, it would take sustained sub-zero temperatures for days. That would assure that every crop in the country - and in June, that's all of them - was dead, and without modern shipping, everybody in the country would starve to death over the following months.

Snow in August is possible. I've seen a few snow-flakes in July, in the foothills of the Wicklow Mountains a bit west of Bray. Of course, it melted as soon as it appeared, and lasted for about 30 seconds in total. You won't get more than that.

A hard frost in August is less likely; as before, you'd need sustained cold for hours for that to happen, and clear skies - pretty much necessary for frost in all but the very coldest of periods - mean that the land is getting well warmed by the sun for all the long hours of daylight.

So I think you must have missed some context.

It was Kieran Hickey a lecturer at NUIG on the Marian Finucane show.
It seems to be from Dr John Ruttys history of weather and seasons in dublin.
The year was 1728, but what it says is that ice was found in the liffey on june 23rd rather than it was frozen over, which is what I think they said on the radio.
google books

Elmer Blooker

gothwalk wrote: »

He was either smoking something or talking about the real ice age. The Liffey has not frozen in June any time since records or even history began, and indeed, if it did, we'd have a record of it as "that year everyone in Ireland died".

In order for the Liffey to freeze over, it would take sustained sub-zero temperatures for days. That would assure that every crop in the country - and in June, that's all of them - was dead, and without modern shipping, everybody in the country would starve to death over the following months.

The Liffey was frozen for weeks in the winter of 1739-40. Jonathan Swift (Gulliver's Travels) mentions walking on the river in his memoirs.
I have a book somewhere called "Arctic Ireland, The Forgotten Famine" which claims up to 400,000 died from as a result of that winter.

thetonynator

gothwalk wrote: »

A hard frost in August is less likely; as before, you'd need sustained cold for hours for that to happen, and clear skies - pretty much necessary for frost in all but the very coldest of periods - mean that the land is getting well warmed by the sun for all the long hours of daylight.

So I think you must have missed some context.

I don't think sub zero temps have ever been recorded in ireland in july or august, or if they have then only -0.1 or -0.2. We came close this year (gurteen got to 0.5 in august) but hard frosts really font happen in those months. Maybe in frost hollows, but not generally.

gothwalk

dloob wrote: »

It was Kieran Hickey a lecturer at NUIG on the Marian Finucane show.
It seems to be from Dr John Ruttys history of weather and seasons in dublin.
The year was 1728, but what it says is that ice was found in the liffey on june 23rd rather than it was frozen over, which is what I think they said on the radio.
google books

That's a rather different kettle of fish! And nice work on tracking it down.

gothwalk

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The Liffey was frozen for weeks in the winter of 1739-40. Jonathan Swift (Gulliver's Travels) mentions walking on the river in his memoirs.
I have a book somewhere called "Arctic Ireland, The Forgotten Famine" which claims up to 400,000 died from as a result of that winter.

I'm not surprised. That would be kind of terrifying, although I'll admit I've glanced at the river each morning for the last couple as the DART goes over. Just in case, like.

th3 s1aught3r

How cold would it have to get for the Liffey to freeze over

gothwalk

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

How cold would it have to get for the Liffey to freeze over

Well, if the temperature plunged straight to, say -60C, it'd freeze over pretty quickly. But that's nigh-on impossible on an island in the Atlantic.

There's a dependency on things like depth, speed of flow, and so on, as well, which makes it hard to work out, and once there's a thin covering of ice, it's much easier for it to thicken than it is for the initial freeze to happen. And added to that, the Liffey in Dublin is tidal, so the water level varies.

I'll take a bit of a stab in the dark and say that if we got temperatures not rising above -6C for two weeks, the Liffey might freeze in places. Smaller rivers like the Dodder and the Tolka could well freeze before that.