Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

lucy2010

lucy2010 wrote: »

Jesus- Now you've put the wind up me BB... I trust you ,MT, WC ,Wolfe & SC more than I trust myself at the moment . I thought papa was raving again ...

Also the reminder to keep an eye on the old folks & kiddies. Ive a little tiny thing with pneumonia now as I couldnt get out to the doc & put it down to a dose .. Ill be checking in every day ... Thanks again guys...;)

Just to clarify,this is only guessing.It might pan out different but as theres definitely 4 or 5 dry days ahead,it's no harm to use them to good effect!
Current trends suggest things getting very problematical come the weekend,but trends and specefics can change.

NickDrake

As much as I love snow. With Christmas coming up and people having to travel it is not really welcome.

It is easy for those who do not have to travel to work etc or travel home for Christmas.

Furthermore this country cannot handly snow and the councils cannot cope.

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS paints an interesting picture for next weekend, almost all areas could be at risk for some snowfall at times.







Of course it's still a week away and there could and probably will be very significant changes by then, so its utterly pointless to say which counties may or may not see any significant snow at this stage.

Stay tuned, things will be clearer by the middle of the week.

Looking at those charts this would provide the perfect scenario for us in Waterford to get snow. All the snow we got in the past spell was from streamers developing in the Irish sea and pushing in a SW direction towards us, but I guess most of the country would be at risk looking at those charts

mickger844posts

Would be interesting to say the least if this came off next weekend

TheMilkyPirate

I appreciate the fact most people here wouldn't be gamblers but if the models start to show the cold stickin in a bit longer the odds of snow falling at various locations in ireland on christmas day are quite good tbh.

Dublin: 11/4
Cork:9/2
Derry:5/1
Belfast 5/2

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/weather/white-christmas-2003

maquiladora

baraca wrote: »

I appreciate the fact most people here wouldn't be gamblers but if the models start to show the cold stickin in a bit longer the odds of snow falling at various locations in ireland on christmas day are quite good tbh.

Dublin: 11/4
Cork:9/2
Derry:5/1
Belfast 5/2

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/weather/white-christmas-2003

There are indications that the upcoming potential cold spell could be shorter than the last one we just had. Chances are it could be milder again just before Xmas, but there is still a good deal of uncertainty.

WolfeIRE

Next friday snow risk chart.

Pangea

For a moment there I thought the South West was getting the heaviest snow because of the alarming colours ,Just realised that the rest of the countrys calmer colours is actually heavier snow

WolfeIRE

the arctic airmass extends further into the atlantic than previous run

wicklowdub

Good Lord

cherryghost

I'm staying reserved until Tuesday/Wednesday. Not trusting the models atm as anything can change in the next 6 days. Midweek next week should give us a clearer indication of what's to come.

I really hope that the forecasts stay solid though, would be awesome.

WolfeIRE

they have been consistent regarding next friday though for the past 72 hrs or so. But you are right Cherryghost

TheMilkyPirate

If what the models are showing atm happened would the temps stay cold enough for the snow to still be lying on christmas day?

Pangea

Is that depth measured in millimeters? As CherryGhost said it will be interesting to see if the charts stay the same.

WolfeIRE

baraca wrote: »

If what the models are showing atm happened would the temps stay cold enough for the snow to still be lying on christmas day?

latest gfs shows cold staying in place until 27 dec.

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

Is that depth measured in millimeters? As CherryGhost said it will be interesting to see if the charts stay the same.

The numbers are showing the snow level I think

The snow chart means nothing this far out though, just looking at the above its gone from 100% to less than 50% the border area in the space of 3 hours. If the charts turn out to be accurate then any precipitation will likely fall as snow but to my knowledge theres no way to know how much there'll be yet

maquiladora

Interesting 12Z GFS. Good snow potential for northern to southwestern areas later in the week on that run, still too far off though and precip amounts are always going to change a lot from run to run this far out.
As a bonus, nice to see a white christmas deep in FI.

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

The numbers are showing the snow level I think

The snow chart means nothing this far out though, just looking at the above its gone from 100% to less than 50% the border area in the space of 3 hours. If the charts turn out to be accurate then any precipitation will likely fall as snow but to my knowledge theres no way to know how much there'll be yet

Those snow charts are useless beyond about 36-48 hours tbh, and even in the short term I'd take them with a pinch of grit.

WolfeIRE

Any estimation regarding exact precipitation amounts should not be made until 3-4 days out as Maq said but it must be stated the models are coming more in line with the likely scenario come Friday. The most interesting and admittedly troubling runs I have seen in a long time. SHould they transpire then I would be concerned for our capacity to keep the country moving in the period up to Christmas.

patneve2

All we can say about the precipitation at this stage is that Northern and Western areas will be favoured (as always is the case in Northerlies/NWesterlies). The models will never be reliable regarding the formation on troughs and other systems, making this a wonderful nowcast event. Let's just hope the ECM doesn't spoil it all. The overall trend is great at the moment.

sean555

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Any estimation regarding exact precipitation amounts should not be made until 3-4 days out as Maq said but it must be stated the models are coming more in line with the likely scenario come Friday. The most interesting and admittedly troubling runs I have seen in a long time. SHould they transpire then I would be concerned for our capacity to keep the country moving in the period up to Christmas.

Very difficult to remember when we had such consistently cold and snowy runs from nearly all the models {NOGAPS being something of an exception} , hopefully they continue on the same road.

Min

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Latest ECM weather model from Meteociel has cold and snow lasting through to at least Dec 27th

That would be a nice warm up, a bit like after Christmas last year though it was temporary.

hotwhiskey

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Any estimation regarding exact precipitation amounts should not be made until 3-4 days out as Maq said but it must be stated the models are coming more in line with the likely scenario come Friday. The most interesting and admittedly troubling runs I have seen in a long time. SHould they transpire then I would be concerned for our capacity to keep the country moving in the period up to Christmas.

Yes Wolfe if this transpires we are looking at a serious situation, butting the cold and freezing conditions to one side in this part of the woods the council has ran out of salt not getting any in until the 18 Dec this was mentioned on the local radio Tuesday when conditions were still very bad.

I wonder has Santa any extra Sleighs.:D

snow ghost

Some very interesting and exciting possibilities coming from the models.

As an aside to the scientific-based potentials, I’ve been observing the wildlife to see if they are giving any indications of things to come.

The most noticeable thing has been birds singing and chirping throughout the whole of the night for the last two nights - this is quite unusual, and something I also noticed prior to the cold snap last winter. At first I put this latest nightime activility down to them making the most of feeding opportunities once the thaw set in, as they were probably hungry, but as it has continued for a couple of nights I believe they are preparing for what is to come, by essentially ‘stocking up’ while it is mild.

I’ve also noticed the shags coming closer to civilisation, to feed, which they tend to do when severe cold is on its way.

I haven’t noticed much from the mammals, but will be keeping an eye out next week, to see if the otters and foxes are onto anything.
　

pegasus1

Brenireland wrote: »

Stock up for?,Look once a thaw sets in after a cold 2/3 weeks of the start of a very cold winter You can safely say that their will NOT be anymore Snow/or temps below -10 until next winter.

how on earth did you come up with this idea! hogwash i say hogwash !!

patneve2

the latest ECM just shows us that there still is enormous uncertainty on which route the displaced polar vortex is going to take. Much more west on the latest ECM compared to the 12Z GFS. The only certainty is that it will be cold in a weeks time

200motels

pegasus1 wrote: »

how on earth did you come up with this idea! hogwash i say hogwash !!

+1

pauldry

Think Thursday night is the start of all this snow thingimijig isnt it?

After that we wait and see. I dont see temps as low as minus 16.4c (Mount Juliet) but certainly Minus 10 is a possibility and snow on Christmas Day looks more than 50/50 though the mild air may intrude just by then.

Basing this on my own opinions and all my looks on the different websites and guesswork really so feel free to disagree.;)

irish1967

Ahem. Don't feed the....

Birdnuts

patneve2 wrote: »

the latest ECM just shows us that there still is enormous uncertainty on which route the displaced polar vortex is going to take. Much more west on the latest ECM compared to the 12Z GFS. The only certainty is that it will be cold in a weeks time

ECM have been all over the place recently - not very impressed:(