Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

Musicman2000

GFS rolling out and UKMO not looking bad at all

BEASTERLY

Musicman2000 wrote: »

GFS rolling out and UKMO not looking bad at all

Looks like the east could get a hammering on saturday so?

Musicman2000

Looks like a low running accross the south, it could bring plenty of snow, still a bit far out yet

NIALL D

wow, that looks savage....:):D

little bess

If this hits the UK and Ireland at the weekend will we be looking at airport closures , specifically dublin and birmingham or is it too early to tell ? I have family who have to travel , hope they are able to get their flights !

nacho libre

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

In this case, I'm not so worried about modification as the airmass really is awfully cold. With a nice difference in temperatures between an atlantic ocean at about 10-11 degrees and a very cold polar airmass, it will only aid convection which will bring widespread snow showers to much of Ireland. That's mainly what I'm expecting for Thursday and Friday.

so with the airmass being so cold, and the wind being fairly strong, coastal areas on along the north and north west, are you saying these areas could experience something akin to lake effect snow?

jon burrows

if the charts above deliver, what is the worst case scenario (or for snow lovers best case) with regard to snow depth? Are we talking 10 inches+ ??

nacho libre

jon burrows wrote: »

if the charts above deliver, what is the worst case scenario (or for snow lovers best case) with regard to snow depth? Are we talking 10 inches+ ??

in the north of ireland there should at least be 6-8 inches on lower ground. otherwise it's nothing out of the ordinary. in 2000 when the charts were not as impressive, there was a foot of snow in parts of the north and north west.

lucernarian

nacho libre wrote: »

so with the airmass being so cold, and the wind being fairly strong, coastal areas on along the north and north west, are you saying these areas could experience something akin to lake effect snow?

I would expect that, much like there was snow in the NW around Friday 2 weeks ago. Though coastal fringes in Donegal and Mayo could very well be marginal in the daytime.

Wish out weather folks got this excited !!!! Check this guys RAMPING. jebus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_z_7zUGjJc&feature=related

th3 s1aught3r

zerks wrote: »

I know it's the Daily Mail who can be sensationalist and a UK centric article but it makes interesting reading nonetheless.They have nailed their colours with regards to a Winter storm and very cold spell.Here's the link(article too long to qoute here) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1337904/Return-big-freeze-Another-EIGHT-inches-snow-hit-Britain-week.html

Complete rag and, as you say, known for sensationalist headlines
Even if it is true

th3 s1aught3r

Anyone know how many inches of snow fell in the Dublin region recently ?

patneve2

When looking at Northerlies, I never really get excited, they rarely deliver that much here on the SE Dublin Coast. I often remember staring in sadness at the radar seeing showers smash into northern and western coasts and readily dying out 40/50km outside Dublin on previous occasions :rolleyes: However, these synoptics are truly amazing! The only similar analogy I can find in the last 10-15 years is the end of December 2000 event (which looks quite tame in comparison-Greenland heights much less impressive then and 850hpa once again less impressive then). On that occasion Dublin just saw a few inches escaping the worst, but most of the country was absolutely plastered by heavy snow showers, troughs.
Anyway, I seriously think that there will be great accumulations from this upcoming cold spell in the North and West. However, the orientation and shape of that low is key, if it changes its positioning/shape different areas will get snow. A NE flow from the low coming down from the arctic is quite plausible if it positions itself over Wales. What I really do hope is that the strong flow will at least generate troughs and bands of showers that make it right across the country, if not even polar lows. Interesting days ahead hopefully.

patneve2

nacho libre wrote: »

in the north of ireland there should at least be 6-8 inches on lower ground. otherwise it's nothing out of the ordinary. in 2000 when the charts were not as impressive, there was a foot of snow in parts of the north and north west.

Just posted the end of Dec 2000 chart. Over a foot of snow in parts of Donegal, Leitrim, Northern Ireland, Mayo.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=1105

BEASTERLY

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Anyone know how many inches of snow fell in the Dublin region recently ?

Here in wexford it was 12-16 inches so i presume something similar in dublin.

Calibos

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Here in wexford it was 12-16 inches so i presume something similar in dublin.

.....and 12 miles south of Dublin in Bray.
2 (Sat 28th) +1 (Sun 29th) = 3 -1.5 (Thaw Mon/Tues) + 1 Wed

:rolleyes:

All I can say is there better be another easterly with streamers with Bray under the train or frontal snow this time or I won't be a happy snow bunny at all.

boardgirl

Hi Lads, Just lookng for a bit of advice on travel plans during this winter storm. I'm getting a filight from Shnnon at 16.30 on Friday the 17th and returning at 14.30 on Monday the 20th from CDG.. What do you think the chances are of airport closures/delays? I understand it's difficult to predict this far out but any help would be much appreciated as I need to book accomodation soon and it's non refundable.:o thanks!

Aquals

Found this on irishweatheronline.com. Not sure if it's reliable but it sounds exciting!

The high pressure system which made way for the thaw and is now slowly chilling overhead is stretched out and destroyed by sudden events to the north where the Greenland high captures the height anomaly from the eastern Atlantic, and a huge polar hurricane (can't describe it as anything less) forms near Svalbard and drops rapidly south.


This will have to be watched because as impressive as the current maps appear, if this feature were to hold together somewhat longer it would engulf Britain and Ireland in a very strong northerly of sub-freezing temperatures which is almost what the maps show now ... the only difference being that the northerly is rather strong instead of very strong.

I can't stress strongly enough that this will be a major winter weather onslaught and not just a drop in temperatures with a few local flurries.

This is like turning the eastern Atlantic into the Great Lakes, almost, when you have this much cold air rushing south this fast, it overcomes the normal tendencies of the Atlantic to modify air masses and turn streamers to mush. This setup could give blizzard like conditions even with winds somewhat west of due north, in many parts of Ireland. And we aren't that confident that the setup is perfectly modelled yet, what's probably equally likely at this point is that the polar low will drop into the North Sea and pull Siberian air across into the N-NE flow on following days. There is also a lot of super-cold air waiting to head west from central to northwest Russia and around Novaya Zemlya.

When this polar hurricane develops, winds are going to be 50-70 knots around Jan Mayen (volcanic island 1000 km west of Norway, 600 km north of Iceland) with temperatures of -12 C ... the ice margin will probably shift south in this period to reach limits not seen in recent years, and the Baltic Sea is rapidly freezing and spilling out 0-2 C water into the North Sea.


All of these factors are building blocks towards what may become an epochal cold spell for Ireland and Britain in the next 20-30 day interval.

nacho libre

i'm almost dreading looking at the charts and this site in the next couple of days. it would be good if we could just fast forward to thursday at this stage

greysides

Aquals wrote: »

Found this on irishweatheronline.com. Not sure if it's reliable but it sounds exciting!

About as reliable as MTC's forecasts.

Harps

Yeah I keep expecting a downgrade every time I come on here but so far so good. In fact reading MT's update last night has heightened my expectations if anything

snow ghost

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm almost dreading looking at the charts and this site in the next couple of days. it would be good if we could just fast forward to thursday at this stage

If that megacryometeor shower hits East Mayo on Thursday you may regret fast-forwarding Nacho.

But don't worry, I suspect it will push southwards towards Tuam. :pac:

John mac

greysides wrote: »

About as reliable as MTC's forecasts.

maybe written by the same person :D:D

amacachi

Once I get home without too much hassle on Friday I don't care how cold it is or how many ice storms we have after that :P

Snowman10

Personally I dont think think will be a widespread event.... I just dont see Ireland getting plastered again in a matter of weeks.... whats the odds on that happening?? Dont get me wrong I would love to see it happen as much as you guys but the reason i am skeptic is that I just have never witnessed it i suppose. anyone agree???

Pangea

Countryfile is on BBC1 at the moment, I didnt even know that programme was still going ,I thought it was renamed to Countrytracks, but it seems that its a seperate programme with a different time slot.
Anyways Countryfiles forecast for the whole week ahead will be coming up in the next 20 mins, so give it a watch, should be interesting.

downwiththatsor

You just beat me to it, the sister countrytracks programme this morning had a lot of snow for the North and western fringes for Friday, hopefully they go a bit further on this one.

Pangea wrote: »

Countryfile is on BBC1 at the moment, I didnt even know that programme was still going ,I thought it was renamed to Countrytracks, but it seems that its a seperate programme with a different time slot.
Anyways Countryfiles forecast for the whole week ahead will be coming up in the next 20 mins, so give it a watch, should be interesting.

Brenireland

nothing but rain forcasted new it.:(

pistolpetes11

Brenireland wrote: »

nothing but rain forcasted new it.:(

?

Pangea

Bren is a troll that comes out of the woods at a particular time of the day to annoy people ,just ignore it.