Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

123balltv

Should I stock up for Christmas now
I'm one of these last minute shoppers is the cold snap coming back before
Christmas.Everyone I meet are commenting on next week being as bad as last week there all panicking :eek:

Musicman2000

123balltv wrote: »

Should I stock up for Christmas now
I'm one of these last minute shoppers is the cold snap coming back before
Christmas.Everyone I meet are commenting on next week being as bad as last week there all panicking :eek:

I wouldnt panic just yet, wait a few more days:) dont think it will be as bad as the last cold snap

v10

Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold

123balltv

v10 wrote: »

Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold

Cheers :eek: shocking forecast is he usually right?

jarvis

Anyone interested in us all putting a Euro in a pot (PayPal) on a White Xmas and calling on Paddy Power for enhanced odds. Then give any winnings to a charity ?????(Vote for charity)????
These threads had over 700 users at times last week. Wouldn't it be Fvcking class to win the money and also give it to someone in need. Maybe a homeless charity????

I'm serious by the way! There has to be a way for a mod or someone trustworthy to gather the funds!
I'd give more than the Euro but try get everyone to commit one euro!!

What do ye think? Mods?

Standard Odds for Dublin 11/4.

pauldry

Think from early next week until Christmas will be cold and very cold some days with a lot of frosty nights and snow in the North and East, sometimes over the Northwest.

The period of about December 18th - 20th looks interesting countrywide but there is a potential for snow before this in Eastern areas.

However I dont think it will be as cold as the minus 16.4c in Mount Juliet during the last spell. (Could be about -4 to -10 by night)

After Christmas could be milder and the West and South will probably be the mildest places in the period up to Christmas

This is just an opinion so prepare to slate it

jebus, getting chugged on the boards now too .

I was in town today, I counted 17 different people who asked me for money for charity.

personally I think it should just remain a weather thread.

( awaits roars of Scrooge, boo hiss...) :P;)

M.T. Cranium

Folks, use this mild spell and the open conditions (even when it turns a bit colder early next week, it won't be very wintry as such) to get yourselves well prepared, because I think a real blast of winter is coming back with a vengeance around the 16th or 17th, and here's what I just posted on another forum:

---

I think the eventual outcome will be closer to GFS than ECM in the day 8 to 12 time frame, but taken together it shows the potential in this situation for a massive arctic outbreak with a cyclonic disturbance embedded. I would take that as the main theme and given the energy peak at 20-21 Dec, a plausible outcome would be for cold to sweep south, create a vast pool of sub-freezing air mass, then create a storm at the maritime boundary somewhere west of France that would try to move east along the southern boundary of the cold air mass at that time. Could spell snowstorm or even blizzard potential for the UK and Ireland around that time frame, and as for any push back of mild air afterwards, that's likely down to the GFS tendency to try to return to zonal default. The signal is so persistent and so strong (and so well-timed with the retrograde index peak on 20 Dec from my research) that I have to say, word to the wise, there could be a very disruptive period ahead from about Thursday 16th on, use these mild and open days while you have them especially if you're in a location or situation that is prone to travel disruptions.

---

Just to give boards readers some extra thoughts on this, the models at day 8 and beyond can only be taken as general indicators. Some of the details especially the location and intensity of actual storm systems, often come into focus only by about day 4-5. This is why I try to blend my research with the model output in forecasting, because on a statistical basis, the research is actually more likely to verify in gross terms than the model output at day 8 and beyond. Now there's quite a difference in the ECM and GFS at present, but they share the common theme of massive retrogression (that being the westward shift of high pressure next week) and large-scale cold outflow from the arctic towards Europe. If I blend that general foundation and take some of the shaping of each model, then factor in my research data, I see every possibility of winter storm conditions developing some time during the period and most likely around 20-21 Dec but certainly within the larger time frame of 18-23 Dec. As to any milder push back around Christmas, that so far is only based on the inevitable tendency of the GFS to start returning to default values -- you can pretty much sense as a weather watcher that the massive cold outbreak on the 18z run is being slowly dissolved into some artificial zero-anomaly grid, nature wouldn't just bring south all that potent cold air and have it decay over a five day period, it's much more likely to lead to active frontal boundary dramatics of some kind, especially with the major energy peak so conveniently timed.

Mayo Exile

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Folks, use this mild spell and the open conditions (even when it turns a bit colder early next week, it won't be very wintry as such) to get yourselves well prepared, because I think a real blast of winter is coming back with a vengeance around the 16th or 17th, and here's what I just posted on another forum:

---

I think the eventual outcome will be closer to GFS than ECM in the day 8 to 12 time frame, but taken together it shows the potential in this situation for a massive arctic outbreak with a cyclonic disturbance embedded. I would take that as the main theme and given the energy peak at 20-21 Dec, a plausible outcome would be for cold to sweep south, create a vast pool of sub-freezing air mass, then create a storm at the maritime boundary somewhere west of France that would try to move east along the southern boundary of the cold air mass at that time. Could spell snowstorm or even blizzard potential for the UK and Ireland around that time frame, and as for any push back of mild air afterwards, that's likely down to the GFS tendency to try to return to zonal default. The signal is so persistent and so strong (and so well-timed with the retrograde index peak on 20 Dec from my research) that I have to say, word to the wise, there could be a very disruptive period ahead from about Thursday 16th on, use these mild and open days while you have them especially if you're in a location or situation that is prone to travel disruptions.

---

Just to give boards readers some extra thoughts on this, the models at day 8 and beyond can only be taken as general indicators. Some of the details especially the location and intensity of actual storm systems, often come into focus only by about day 4-5. This is why I try to blend my research with the model output in forecasting, because on a statistical basis, the research is actually more likely to verify in gross terms than the model output at day 8 and beyond. Now there's quite a difference in the ECM and GFS at present, but they share the common theme of massive retrogression (that being the westward shift of high pressure next week) and large-scale cold outflow from the arctic towards Europe. If I blend that general foundation and take some of the shaping of each model, then factor in my research data, I see every possibility of winter storm conditions developing some time during the period and most likely around 20-21 Dec but certainly within the larger time frame of 18-23 Dec. As to any milder push back around Christmas, that so far is only based on the inevitable tendency of the GFS to start returning to default values -- you can pretty much sense as a weather watcher that the massive cold outbreak on the 18z run is being slowly dissolved into some artificial zero-anomaly grid, nature wouldn't just bring south all that potent cold air and have it decay over a five day period, it's much more likely to lead to active frontal boundary dramatics of some kind, especially with the major energy peak so conveniently timed.

"Bloody hell" is my initial reaction to that! Do they sell these here then:

123balltv

Cheers M.T I'm kindof looking forward to it
and dreading it at the same time I'm starting Christmas shopping very soon Thanks.

Pangea

Unreal forecast, These are exciting times indeed. I would love to get a foot of snowfall like some of yas got in the East but as long as its cold Il be happy enough.

ro_chez

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Folks, use this mild spell and the open conditions (even when it turns a bit colder early next week, it won't be very wintry as such) to get yourselves well prepared, because I think a real blast of winter is coming back with a vengeance around the 16th or 17th, and here's what I just posted on another forum:

---

I think the eventual outcome will be closer to GFS than ECM in the day 8 to 12 time frame, but taken together it shows the potential in this situation for a massive arctic outbreak with a cyclonic disturbance embedded. I would take that as the main theme and given the energy peak at 20-21 Dec, a plausible outcome would be for cold to sweep south, create a vast pool of sub-freezing air mass, then create a storm at the maritime boundary somewhere west of France that would try to move east along the southern boundary of the cold air mass at that time. Could spell snowstorm or even blizzard potential for the UK and Ireland around that time frame, and as for any push back of mild air afterwards, that's likely down to the GFS tendency to try to return to zonal default. The signal is so persistent and so strong (and so well-timed with the retrograde index peak on 20 Dec from my research) that I have to say, word to the wise, there could be a very disruptive period ahead from about Thursday 16th on, use these mild and open days while you have them especially if you're in a location or situation that is prone to travel disruptions.

---

Just to give boards readers some extra thoughts on this, the models at day 8 and beyond can only be taken as general indicators. Some of the details especially the location and intensity of actual storm systems, often come into focus only by about day 4-5. This is why I try to blend my research with the model output in forecasting, because on a statistical basis, the research is actually more likely to verify in gross terms than the model output at day 8 and beyond. Now there's quite a difference in the ECM and GFS at present, but they share the common theme of massive retrogression (that being the westward shift of high pressure next week) and large-scale cold outflow from the arctic towards Europe. If I blend that general foundation and take some of the shaping of each model, then factor in my research data, I see every possibility of winter storm conditions developing some time during the period and most likely around 20-21 Dec but certainly within the larger time frame of 18-23 Dec. As to any milder push back around Christmas, that so far is only based on the inevitable tendency of the GFS to start returning to default values -- you can pretty much sense as a weather watcher that the massive cold outbreak on the 18z run is being slowly dissolved into some artificial zero-anomaly grid, nature wouldn't just bring south all that potent cold air and have it decay over a five day period, it's much more likely to lead to active frontal boundary dramatics of some kind, especially with the major energy peak so conveniently timed.

FreudianSlippers

I have a flight at 1pm on the 17th. So long as the snow doesn't start until after that I'll be ok

Birdnuts

ro_chez wrote: »

Is that man watching Mary Byrne??;)

Calibos

ro_chez wrote: »

LMFAO!! :D Arcticfornication :D

isle of man

well now MT has said it i belive it more so than before.

Mt the uppers look around the -8 -10, which we had in the last spell.

So apart from the storm bit your feel is coming.

what will make this event colder than the last few weeks.

thanks

Jonnykitedude

MT I think I just wet myself reading that! Awesome is all I can say!!

Goes to insulate pipes some more

pistolpetes11

isle of man wrote: »

well now MT has said it i belive it more so than before.

Mt the uppers look around the -8 -10, which we had in the last spell.

So apart from the storm bit your feel is coming.

what will make this event colder than the last few weeks.

thanks

I think he feels that the models are not really reading this event correctly at the moment , and he can see it been very cold

Sierra Oscar

Wow, cheers for the forecast M.T. . . . looks like there is a disruptive spell of weather ahead then!

Just to add, maybe its been posted already . . .

Bastardi: Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold

df1985

when people say be prepared/stock up, what exactly are you referring to,the obvious things like food/heating oil etc or am i missing something. I know its probably a dumb question but first xmas at home this year where im "in charge" of the house, dont want to be stuck.

isle of man

so what temps can we expect from this

snow ghost

df1985 wrote: »

when people say be prepared/stock up, what exactly are you referring to,the obvious things like food/heating oil etc or am i missing something. I know its probably a dumb question but first xmas at home this year where im "in charge" of the house, dont want to be stuck.

Yeah, food and heating would be the main things and anything else you may need if you can't get out for a while due to being snowed in, the roads being a disaster or the shops not getting supplies.

For example, some people may need medicine / prescriptions. A bag of griitting salt might also be useful (for the car if you get stuck, or on your driveway/pavement).

It's no harm to be prepared, just in case.

stevoslice

Liamario wrote: »

So basically we are talking about the start of the third ice age?

[geek]
there has been at least 5 major ice ages, and we're actually still in one...
[/geek]

El Horseboxo

Have a feeling this is another big hyped one with a lot of knowledgeable heads on board that just doesn't pan out as expected.

fizzycyst

MT, thanks for such detailed information, I learn so much from reading your posts. Your forecasts don't just tell me what might happen, but also why you think they might happen, much appreciated.

Time to get some supplies in

snow ghost

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Have a feeling this is another big hyped one with a lot of knowledgeable heads on board that just doesn't pan out as expected.

That's what the Aztecs said when the Incas told them the Spanish were coming to wipe them out.

pauldry

Just an idea...no not a charity .. but do you think if we all got our hairdryers plugged in around 17th December and stuck them out the window would the warm air turn the snow back to rain ? ....not forgetting to switch them on of course

snow ghost

pauldry wrote: »

Just an idea...no not a charity .. but do you think if we all got our hairdryers plugged in around 17th December and stuck them out the window would the warm air turn the snow back to rain ? ....not forgetting to switch them on of course

You have a hairdryer! :pac:

It would just blow all of the snow to Coleraine, the esb network would fail after being over-loaded and many men here would be beaten by our other halfs for burning the dryers out.

Best to just get snowed in and let the blizzard continue uninterupted.

wyndham

df1985 wrote: »

when people say be prepared/stock up, what exactly are you referring to,the obvious things like food/heating oil etc or am i missing something. I know its probably a dumb question but first xmas at home this year where im "in charge" of the house, dont want to be stuck.

Smokes and beer.

Mr Benevolent

Why are people so enthusiastic about a return to cold weather? It's the equivalent of celebrating the budget as a brilliant idea.

snow ghost

Confab wrote: »

Why are people so enthusiastic about a return to cold weather? It's the equivalent of celebrating the budget as a brilliant idea.

I think you'll find that the Brian Lenihan and Mother Nature have little in common confab. :rolleyes:

As for enthusiasm for cold weather, here's one very good reason:

'THE NUMBER OF DEATHS DUE TO COLD WEATHER FELL LAST YEAR'

http://www.manchesterwired.co.uk/news.php/110215-The-number-of-deaths-due-to-cold-weather-fell-last-year

And here's another:



You won't get that in the rain.

smashey

Jake1 wrote: »

jebus, getting chugged on the boards now too .

I was in town today, I counted 17 different people who asked me for money for charity.

personally I think it should just remain a weather thread.

( awaits roars of Scrooge, boo hiss...) :P;)

Scrooge.

Boooooo hisssssss

0lddog

snow ghost wrote: »

........................
And here's another:



You won't get that in the rain.

Thinks..................Must revise Safety Statement to include clause on appropriate clothing in winter conditions

maquiladora

GavinH

Saturday night will be cold and frosty again with lowest temperatures of -2 or -3 degrees generally and freezing fog will be widespread. It will be cold and frosty on Sunday morning too, but eventually temperatures will reach 4 or 5 degrees during the afternoon. And when the fog clears on Sunday, the weather will be bright and sunny for the few short hours of the day. The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low. After midweek there are signs that the winds will turn southerly in direction and this will end the severe night frosts and bring higher daytime temperatures.

Is this not contradictory to what the models show us for next week?

Thisnwas taken from ME.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Hi Maq, that would give easterly winds right ?

Can never work out what direction the wind goes !

WolfeIRE

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hi Maq, that would give easterly winds right ?

Can never work out what direction the wind goes !

area of low pressure centred over scotland would give us potentially a lot of snow tntn.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

WolfeIRE wrote: »

area of low pressure centred over scotland would give us potentially a lot of snow tntn.

Cheers Wolfe !

opr

WolfeIRE wrote: »

area of low pressure centred over scotland would give us potentially a lot of snow tntn.

Those charts would be incredible if they were to verify right ?

Opr

WolfeIRE

waiting for latest gfs to roll out. all models are, however, indicating a return to very cold weather by the end of next week.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

WolfeIRE wrote: »

waiting for latest gfs to roll out. all models are, however, indicating a return to very cold weather by the end of next week.

Its annoying clicking next hoping a picture will come up !:D

Remember,you need colder 850mb temps with atlantic polar maratime air to support sealevel coastal snow than you do with continental easterly air.
You also need lower dam thicknesses to compensate for the higher humidity brought about by the long sea track.

Belmullet and mallin head would have rain with -8 850 air probably [thats the temp of the air at 5000 ft asl in the charts maq posted above folks]

When I see -10 at that height or -11c or lower,then theres confidence.
It's a different strory for Scotland as theres less modification and for example places like Aberdeen will have the air dry out a bit humidity wise with a partial land track at times.

snowjon

GavinH wrote: »

Saturday night will be cold and frosty again with lowest temperatures of -2 or -3 degrees generally and freezing fog will be widespread. It will be cold and frosty on Sunday morning too, but eventually temperatures will reach 4 or 5 degrees during the afternoon. And when the fog clears on Sunday, the weather will be bright and sunny for the few short hours of the day. The continuing presence of an anticyclone close to Ireland will ensure dry weather for the first half of next week at least. But the nights on Monday and Tuesday will be particularly cold again with temperatures dropping down to -5 and -6 degrees in parts of the country. And daytime temperatures up to Wednesday will also be low. After midweek there are signs that the winds will turn southerly in direction and this will end the severe night frosts and bring higher daytime temperatures.

Is this not contradictory to what the models show us for next week?

Thisnwas taken from ME.

Yes - I just read the ME forecast and nearly fell off my chair - surely this is just completely wrong, given all the latest output for the last few days, EXCEPT last night's ECM. Surely this long-range forecast is based on more than just one off-kilter run. This morning, ECM is back to showing a northerly plunge at the end of next week with possible snow and severe frosts for Ireland. IMO, this is a very misleading forecast for ME to produce - shockingly poor effort

roryc1

Deleted User wrote: »

Remember,you need colder 850mb temps with atlantic polar maratime air to support sealevel coastal snow than you do with continental easterly air.
You also need lower dam thicknesses to compensate for the higher humidity brought about by the long sea track.

Belmullet and mallin head would have rain with -8 850 air probably [thats the temp of the air at 5000 ft asl in the charts maq posted above folks]

When I see -10 at that height or -11c or lower,then theres confidence.
It's a different strory for Scotland as theres less modification and for example places like Aberdeen will have the air dry out a bit humidity wise with a partial land track at times.

You want -10

Tom Cruises Left Nut

From latest GFS run, start of the cold air coming back in over us

WolfeIRE

Friday

GavinH

snowjon wrote: »

Yes - I just read the ME forecast and nearly fell off my chair - surely this is just completely wrong, given all the latest output for the last few days, EXCEPT last night's ECM. Surely this long-range forecast is based on more than just one off-kilter run. This morning, ECM is back to showing a northerly plunge at the end of next week with possible snow and severe frosts for Ireland. IMO, this is a very misleading forecast for ME to produce - shockingly poor effort

Ye thought in was seeing things. I know there was one ECM model that went wayward yesterday, but tis mornings one all line up again.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS at +192

acassells80

Hi

I am getting married on new years eve in Kilkenny- and guests travelling from Dublin. SO NO MORE SNOW PLEASE!!

WolfeIRE

gefs showing breakdown on 21/22