Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

laurence997

Sorry if Im a bit new to all this, but is there any site that will predict where snow/precipitation will fall in ireland in coming days? (I am keeping up to date with MT's forecasts )

Chicken Run

I'm doing my shopping this week.... quick learner, me !!!

Any chance we could put the East Clare snow shield up till Saturday night though please ?? Got a massive Christmas concert in Scarriff that's taken months of work for scores of people - be gutted if it was cancelled.

Su Campu

dragonkin wrote: »

According to the first alert today the low pressure system (purple one) would develop over svalbard (north Norway) and then head south westerly over ireland. But according to the synoptic analysis a different low pressure system developing over baffin bay is forced easterly and then southerly by a huge following high pressure system. Which of these two low pressure systems are responsible for the pressure system over Ireland on Thursday? Or am I missing something?

They are both the same low. It forms over northeastern Greenland/Svalbard in response to a cold upper trough that originates in northern Canada.

Pangea

WolfeIRE wrote: »

No pangea. No definite indication of an end to this cold spell yet. Fergal was referring to a NE stream of air being cut off. Weather models indicate cold will stay in place but not necessarily driven by a cold NE airmass

Thanks for clearing that up.

Iancar29

Im sure this mite hav been posted earlier... But anyways...
WATCH this!... yad think it was from a movie or something!

laurence997

Chicken Run wrote: »

I'm doing my shopping this week.... quick learner, me !!!

Any chance we could put the East Clare snow shield up till Saturday night though please ?? Got a massive Christmas concert in Scarriff that's taken months of work for scores of people - be gutted if it was cancelled.

Sure in Clare the snow shield seems to be up full time:rolleyes:. Hope it goes well for you:)

dragonkin

Su Campu wrote: »

They are both the same low. It forms over northeastern Greenland/Svalbard in response to a cold upper trough that originates in northern Canada.

I really don't understand this but this chart from the synoptic analysis seems to indicate that there are two separate system (one left of greenland and one to the right)



and look at this notice the small purple patch around Baffin bay (top left corner) and the other low pressure region near svalbard.



My understanding is that the system left of greenland is being referred to in the synoptic analysis and in the first alert the system right of greenland.

snow ghost

Deleted User wrote: »

The snow wont get as bad as this!

That is an unwise place to park one's car - it looks like a real dodgy housing block - a heinous habitation if I ever I saw one - it's a wonder the wheels were left on.

th3 s1aught3r

snow ghost wrote: »

That is an unwise place to park one's car - it looks like a real dodgy housing block - a heinous habitation if I ever I saw one - it's a wonder the wheels were left on.

Haha. The car under all the snow is probably the safest of them all

th3 s1aught3r

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Haha. The car under all the snow is probably the safest of them all

I'd like to see someone try to steal it, bet it'll get a parking ticket!

91011

the latest report from met eireann suggests the event has changed with rain & temps of 5-8 thurs, then freezing but mainly dry for weekend and then back to a milder spell middle of following week

mickger844posts

91011 wrote: »

the latest report from met eireann suggests the event has changed with rain & temps of 5-8 thurs, then freezing but mainly dry for weekend and then back to a milder spell middle of following week

Where you getting this from? There is no mention of this on the latest Met Eireann Forecast. Thats complete rubbish and is not going to happen.

. THURSDAY: Rather windy on Thursday with rain in many areas for a time but clearing southwards with very cold wintry conditions following later Thursday and the rain could well turn to sleet or snow in places before finally clearing.

Pangea

Does look nice ,although I do detect that the intensity of the upcoming weather has been played down a bit in recent days , talks of snowmaggadon a few days ago and getting people to stock up because of major disruption seems to have dissapearred , was beginning to think this was going to be the big winter event we have all been waiting for.
Also MTs forecasts dont appear to be as potent as before either.
Time will tell I guess, still only sunday night.

M.T. Cranium

That Minnesota snow shield is going to need some work -- good job the game wasn't on Saturday (actually the NFL game was going to be postponed anyway because the New York Giants team couldn't get into MSP, now the plan is to play the game at Detroit's stadium on Monday where they also have a roof, but one that works.

The term "Greenland Express" is something that just came to me looking at the tremendous northerly gradient that develops on Tuesday up there, the GFS is showing a 1076 mb high over Greenland which is almost unprecedented, and a 980 mb low near Svalbard. Interesting times ahead, this situation could upgrade as easily as it could downgrade, remember how the first cold wave actually played out.

Mayo Exile

Pangea wrote: »

So since the cold air is going to be cut off once the coldest air comes here ,where does that leave us all, will that mean a shortish cold period?
Im detecting downgrades

18Z GFS for the 23rd Dec. A long way off yet though. Maybe the "happy thaw thread" people might like it! This is the day I have to travel across country as well!

Pangea

Mayo Exile wrote: »

18Z GFS for the 23rd Dec. A long way off yet though. Maybe the "happy thaw thread" people might like it! This is the day I have to travel across country as well!

Imigh leat! :P

mickger844posts

Some nice 850 uppers for Thursday, just to get the positivity back in here

123balltv

bring on the positivity

dsmythy

Mayo Exile wrote: »

18Z GFS for the 23rd Dec. A long way off yet though. Maybe the "happy thaw thread" people might like it! This is the day I have to travel across country as well!

Now that's my kind of chart. A long way off but hints at least at the possibility of the cold snap not lasting through Christmas. I shall be getting everything ready for Christmas by Thursday regardless though.

mickger844posts

A look at that amazing Greenland high pressure thats going to bring us on the express of Thursday

pauldry

Its a delicate situation and balancing act really but it will be very cold whatever happens and surely some snow will follow. Still looking mild for Xmas in my view but I may eat me words.

mickger844posts

dsmythy wrote: »

Now that's my kind of chart. A long way off but hints at least at the possibility of the cold snap not lasting through Christmas. I shall be getting everything ready for Christmas by Thursday regardless though.

Dont get your hopes up as MT has said that GFS always default to break down these cold spells within a certain time frame.

pauldry

by the way ..wouldnt it be mighty if the 1076mb High came down for Christmas Day. What would that do. Would the country blow up?!!

maquiladora

Daytime maximum temps of -8 in parts of Scotland on Friday?



Brrrr....

pistolpetes11

Breakdown pushed out to the 28th now (WaY out in FI )

It was at first the 23rd , then 25th ,then 27th and now the 28th

Timistry

mickger844posts wrote: »

A look at that amazing Greenland high pressure thats going to bring us on the express of Thursday

:eek: thats just incredible. This chart really drives home the extinct of the blocking and the presense of a 1072mb artic high that will take some shifting! No wonder M.T coined this the Greenland express, the source of the Northerly winds is deep inside the artic circle. If this set-up can be sustained for a few days there is every possibility of an epic battleground situation being set-up. 1982 part 2 anyone?:D

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

by the way ..wouldnt it be mighty if the 1076mb High came down for Christmas Day. What would that do. Would the country blow up?!!

No, but your double glazing units might! :eek:

snow ghost

Timistry wrote: »

:eek:1982 part 2 anyone?:D

Followed swiftly by The Night of the Big Wind part 2 X 2. :eek:

gally74

I love the smell of gfs charts in the morning......

Charlie don't like snow.....

M.T. Cranium

Just for the record, the Greenland high is somewhat of an artificial construct, pressures reduced to sea level from conditions on top of a 3,000m a.s.l. ice plateau. But still, the highest I've seen before in these Greenland highs would be around 1068 mbs. And the sea level pressure really does get up almost that high near sea level in Greenland. Highs like this are almost always products of retrogression of Atlantic highs, they wouldn't migrate south very often. Usually they would sit there for a while, pulsating, and there would be further retrogression until the main centre was off in Baffin Island, then the Greenland high would fade. That's what usually happens to them. But on the larger scale, if they get linked to Scandinavian highs, it can set up a long-lasting block for Ireland and the U.K.

To show how extreme this high would be (if it verifies) the highest pressure in Europe in the past two centuries appears to be 1067 mbs and similar for North America, while eastern Siberia has probably exceeded 1080 mbs a few times. I believe the highest ever recorded in Ireland is about 1052 mbs.