Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

maiden

Wolfe, what do you predict the lowest temp will be for Clare next week and what are the chances of snow???

Musicman2000

maiden wrote: »

Wolfe, what do you predict the lowest temp will be for Clare next week and what are the chances of snow???

Come back tue or wen and ask that question, models are still changing:)

Birdnuts

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Come back tue or wen and ask that question, models are still changing:)

Yep - increased uncertainty tonight, arctic plunge could stall to our North leaving us in no-mans land:(

patneve2

ECM 12Z is actually starting to worry me! I know its still far out but it seems to be picking up on a far more westward movement of the polar vortex...dunno, all i can do is pray to the GFS gods...

M.T. Cranium

The fact that the Canadian GEM model is closer to the GFS although like a blend of GFS and ECM demonstrates that North American based models are generally picking up less of a retrograde signal in this evolution. Since they are generally stronger in the Canadian arctic sector, this is probably a good sign although a blend of GFS and ECM would actually be better for snow in Ireland than any other solution at present. As I continue to say, watch the period 19-22 Dec for greater development in general as we get closer to the time. This is where a battleground scenario between the potent cold outbreak and what's left of the milder pattern near Iberia and the Azores may come into play. I doubt that we will see realistic depictions of this eventual outcome on any model before about Wed 15th.

Iancar29

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

As I continue to say, watch the period 19-22 Dec for greater development in general as we get closer to the time. This is where a battleground scenario between the potent cold outbreak and what's left of the milder pattern near Iberia and the Azores may come into play..

LEt the atmospheric war begin!

goosey93

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6813


I thought this might interest some of you!

Iancar29

goosey93 wrote: »

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6813


I thought this might interest some of you!

It raised an eye for me but i think its a bit generalised.
I dont think myself its gonna get much colder than we had here last week , but hey , im in dublin , we only got -5,6 here while other places got -12,14 so ye i dont want to start warning my friends and family until theres some agreement and some expeceted temps.

OR SHOULD I ?:rolleyes::rolleyes:

snow ghost

Iancar29 wrote: »

i dont want to start warning my friends and family until theres some agreement and some expeceted temps.

OR SHOULD I ?:rolleyes::rolleyes:

You could always warn them of the potential, with the caveat that it may not happen.

But yeah, just in case Satan, high on snow, does ride out of Hell on a horned polar bear next weekend, it's probably best to give friends and relatives the heads-up that an icy Rapture could be upon us. Just try to remain calm and say it with words that don't cause unnecessary alarm or panic.
　

JJJJNR

Iancar29 wrote: »

LEt the atmospheric war begin!

Battle of the bulge!

Duiske

goosey93 wrote: »

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6813


I thought this might interest some of you!

Just found an interesting link on that site.

35,000 DEATHS FEAR IN NEW ARCTIC BLIZZARDS

That paper is prone to "slight" exaggeration though, so a few pinch's of salt required when reading. I especially love the following :

Britons face spiralling energy bills while the death toll this winter could reach 35,000.
There are also fears some mail may not reach its destination by Christmas Day because of the freeze.

What ? Delayed christmas cards ?? Now that's just horrific !!

derekon

The latest GFS issued at 1800 hours this evening is still on track in respect of bitter arctic air flooding south over Ireland & Britain

It is due to kick in around 7pm Thursday evening. By Friday midday, -12oC upper 850hPA temperatures are spreading across the island. Cold enough for snow.

What is really interesting about this run is that it gets particularly cold in Ireland from the 19th December right up to the 27th December. Previous GFS runs had indicated Ireland would return to a milder pattern around Christmas Eve.

I realise this is all FI at the moment however we are now getting closer to the "reliable timeframe" for very cold air this Thursday 16/12/2010.

My wife is going to love this (she hates the snow!)

Not that I ever doubted him, but I am beginning to take seriously the latest forecast from MT. I think Ireland could be about to enter a very cold period from the end of next week for at least a timeframe of 10 days.

A White Christmas is now looking very likely for Ireland

Link to latest GFS attached......(I found the GFS to be pretty reliable during the recent very cold spell)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

Diddler1977

Duiske wrote: »

What ? Delayed christmas cards ?? Now that's just horrific !!

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: OH NO! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

snow ghost

Diddler1977 wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: OH NO! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

It's that Donegal Postman's fault.

Iancar29

snow ghost wrote: »

You could always warn them of the potential, with the caveat that it may not happen.

But yeah, just in case Satan, high on snow, does ride out of Hell on a horned polar bear next weekend, it's probably best to give friends and relatives the heads-up that an icy Rapture could be upon us. Just try to remain calm and say it with words that don't cause unnecessary alarm or panic.
　

Ill just run around the house so wit this printed out on A1 size paper stuck to me! ...
... While Silently coughing " poetentially"

Birdnuts

derekon wrote: »

The latest GFS issued at 1800 hours this evening is still on track in respect of bitter arctic air flooding south over Ireland & Britain

It is due to kick in around 7pm Thursday evening. By Friday midday, -12oC upper 850hPA temperatures are spreading across the island. Cold enough for snow.

What is really interesting about this run is that it gets particularly cold in Ireland from the 19th December right up to the 27th December. Previous GFS runs had indicated Ireland would return to a milder pattern around Christmas Eve.

I realise this is all FI at the moment however we are now getting closer to the "reliable timeframe" for very cold air this Thursday 16/12/2010.

My wife is going to love this (she hates the snow!)

Not that I ever doubted him, but I am beginning to take seriously the latest forecast from MT. I think Ireland could be about to enter a very cold period from the end of next week for at least a timeframe of 10 days.

A White Christmas is now looking very likely for Ireland

Link to latest GFS attached......(I found the GFS to be pretty reliable during the recent very cold spell)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

The latest British Met 120hr fax chart supports the above too:)

Iancar29

Everyone look at this an get ur equipment togther!

Ya never know....;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOJQPz1s-1c

BEASTERLY

:eek:18z GFS is showing a b'easterly(hence my name) from friday night onwards, the east is back in for snow from friday night onwards.

Youd swear that they were replaying the model runs from this day 3 weeks ago. Benn on this rollercoaster have the photos:D. Hopefully theres even more snow this time.

lucy2010

Beasterly, what are the charts showing in terms of volumn of snow at this moment... I know they are unrelible but is last weeks snow a dusting in comparison to whats due ?

BEASTERLY

lucy2010 wrote: »

Beasterly, what are the charts showing in terms of volumn of snow at this moment... I know they are unrelible but is last weeks snow a dusting in comparison to whats due ?

Well the 18z GFS is showing something similar to the first weekend of this snow for next weekend(anything up to a foot). But of course at this stage that is totaly unreliable and will change countless times betwween now and then. A slight change in the postioning of the low and the east could get nothing at all(tonights ECM).

We should know by thursday, for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!:D

up for anything

BEASTERLY wrote: »

for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!:D

Be careful of what you pray for!

Iancar29

BEASTERLY wrote: »

We should know by thursday, for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!

SVPL!..... I LIKE IT ! :D:D:D

BEASTERLY

Iancar29 wrote: »

SVPL!..... I LIKE IT ! :D:D:D

Support our annual appeal for the SVPL:D

thetonynator

I honestly think, much as i love snow, that the last thing this country needs at the moment is a polar low of any kind, not to mention a super vicious one. . :P

Iancar29

thetonynator wrote: »

I honestly think, much as i love snow, that the last thing this country needs at the moment is a polar low of any kind, not to mention a super vicious one. . :P

Ah ok then.... just have a MSVPL.... ( mini super vicious polar low) right over my house so! :D:D

snow ghost

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well the 18z GFS is showing something similar to the first weekend of this snow for next weekend(anything up to a foot). But of course at this stage that is totaly unreliable and will change countless times betwween now and then. A slight change in the postioning of the low and the east could get nothing at all(tonights ECM).

We should know by thursday, for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!:D

Wait till we get a Cataclysmic-super-vicious-apoca-polar-low-maggedon-alypse, then we'll have to pray. :eek:

Mental Mickey

I dont want ****ing snow!!!!!

Mmcd

Is there anything to be said for way the models are putting back any mild air returning after this more and more a bit like the last spell?

BEASTERLY

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I dont want ****ing snow!!!!!

But I do.

BEASTERLY

snow ghost wrote: »

Wait till we get a Cataclysmic-super-vicious-apoca-polar-low-maggedon-alypse, then we'll have to pray. :eek:

Where do I but one of these?

Sierra Oscar

I have exams next Friday and Saturday in Dublin . . . ill be following this thread eagerly over the next few days!

snow ghost

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I dont want ****ing snow!!!!!

Not even a little-bitty blizzard?

You may be in luck Mental Mickey, it may come in mega-proportions but not stay around too long, that way you could enjoy its glory for a couple of days and then be able to still get around easily enough afterwards.

stupidusername

The thought of this happening all over again makes me want to cry. And I don't even have to drive / walk in it.

wouldn't mind some rain right about now.

snow ghost

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Where do I but one of these?

Straight on the nose, when it comes for you.

littlefriend

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I have exams next Friday and Saturday in Dublin . . . ill be following this thread eagerly over the next few days!

Haha same! Was just about to post something similar. Wouldn't mind getting Fridays one out of the way and then Saturday to be cancelled. I'd like to know on Friday though that Saturday is cancelled rather than just finding out in the morning! Fingers crossed hey

Sierra Oscar

littlefriend wrote: »

Haha same! Was just about to post something similar. Wouldn't mind getting Fridays one out of the way and then Saturday to be cancelled. I'd like to know on Friday though that Saturday is cancelled rather than just finding out in the morning! Fingers crossed hey

Hehe yeah, should be interesting. Mine are on in the RDS for UCD - I wonder if they have ever had to cancel exams due to bad weather in the past . . . I guess there is always a first! :eek:

thetonynator

I wish it would just wait until christmas when we could have a couple of inchs of snow and more through the day which would then feck off and not come back until mid january or so when i'll want it again!

angelfire9

Ah lads no please no
I'm due a baby on Dec 19th
Spent the first week of December PRAYING that nothing would happen during the cold snap
The last few days of the thaw thanking God that the worst was over and i'd be ok
Now ye're telling me more bloody frost etc on the way
I wanna cry

gally74

hello all,

this does feel like 4 weeks ago when the first predictions came, in

first things first,

1. the pipe at my front wall didnt freeze, i buried it 4 weeks ago based on boards predictions. so thanks to all,

2. iNot surprised were in for another cold one, its just one of those winters,

.....solar cycle having an impact?

Harps

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Hehe yeah, should be interesting. Mine are on in the RDS for UCD - I wonder if they have ever had to cancel exams due to bad weather in the past . . . I guess there is always a first! :eek:

We had our exams cancelled last January, conveniently we had our first one just when the government ordered all the schools to close so they postponed them all for 10 days or so

Unfortunately as I mentioned earlier, I'm planning on going home next weekend so significant snow and I'll be stranded for a few days probably cause I have to cross the mountains to get out west

th3 s1aught3r

Snows cool. But the ice that comes after it is a nightmare, specially the footpaths and minor roads that arent treated
Still hoping it snows though:D

gally74

http://dld.bz/Apvx

Check it out

M.T. Cranium

Have been posting somewhat in error on the winter thread and not this more focused thread ... so this is the most recent of my posts and I will stay here now for these updates.

---

(comment in response to people on netweather saying GFS run "downgrades" the arctic blast) ... There are some people on netweather who could downgrade the Daniel Defoe storm to a light breeze. Really, the 00z GFS run has a huge blast of frigid air heading for the U.K. and Ireland on Thursday, and it digs in hard on Friday. I am going back over to see what the model run does beyond that, but the general idea is that it would have to be sub-freezing with the thickness contours as low as shown, plus the -10 C 850 mb covers the entire region and even the -15 C contour is in play. These are pretty robust looking maps, and we know that details can't be nailed down this far in advance, so wouldn't want to speculate on who gets how much snow.

M.T. Cranium

GFS run keeps very cold air around without much further cyclonic development to about 23 Dec then goes into default mode. I would expect more development in any case.

Next up was GEM (CMC) model, showing about the same as GFS out to 144h where it terminates. Will comment on ECM and UKMO when they update later.

The most certain thing so far is that it will turn very cold again and that some snow will occur (by Thursday-Friday). There is potential for heavy snow in the north and east, it all depends on the details now.

gbee

angelfire9 wrote: »

Ah lads no please no
I'm due a baby on Dec 19th
Spent the first week of December PRAYING that nothing would happen during the cold snap
The last few days of the thaw thanking God that the worst was over and i'd be ok
Now ye're telling me more bloody frost etc on the way
I wanna cry

In all fairness there is no need to be blaming God for not answering your prayers, isn't it God's will be done afterall, not the other way around.

You might at least pray to the ancient weather God's, we survived some massive weather shifts in the past, long before the Christian God came to our shores, maybe they are feeling a little left out, they haven't gone away you know.

gbee

gally74 wrote: »

hello all, .....solar cycle having an impact?

We are having impacts from several sources, all contributing. Perhaps the biggest influence is jet stream, followed by the flow rate or lack thereof of the usually warmer gulf stream.

Then we have the La Nina cold effect and the Gulf Of Mexico oil spill and oceanic effect. Combine that with a natural cooling cycle and all the effects add up to a considerable event or series of events.

M.T. Cranium

Had the impression the UKMO had fallen in line with the GFS. Meanwhile, the ECM has also shifted in the first part of the sequence to a stronger arctic push, then it seems to backtrack to the previous solution. Looks a bit wonky to me. Anyway, I continue to think all the models have a tendency to underplay the severity of this spell, past about Sunday 19th. This seems normal to me, the last ten-day severe period had premature endings suggested on various models before they got the hang of the situation.

Also,typically and a feature of northerlies,I don't like off the atlantic,this spell is preceded thursday by rain.

Redsunset

INCOMING!!!!!:D



Look like im going to be needing one of these to get around.

Su Campu

To what degree do you think forcings from your research will impact this system MT? You had penciled in a strong storm for around late next weekend. Do you reckon the models haven't latched onto that idea yet and are therefore underplaying things?