Will it be a white Christmas

jimmynokia

hello all there is too many threads here with the weather outlooks
so this one is for the topic title
will it be a white Christmas?
post all updates here and weather charts/photos/news etc... thanks:D:D:D:D:D

snow ghost

jimmynokia wrote: »

will it be a white Christmas?

Is Rudolf a rednosed reindeer!

jimmynokia

this thread would be for the more mature members

fizzycyst

I hope so but it looks like even next week won't be returning to cold like we previously thought, according to some of the experts anyway, I'm awaiting MT's next update :rolleyes:

Musicman2000

fizzycyst wrote: »

I hope so but it looks like even next week won't be returning to cold like we previously thought, according to some of the experts anyway, I'm awaiting MT's next update :rolleyes:

I wouldnt say wont be returning to cold, the models tonight are giving very confusing trends, should have a better idea towards the weekend

Ardennes1944

snow ghost wrote: »

Is Rudolf a rednosed reindeer!

Does a bear crap in the woods?:D

fizzycyst

I

wouldnt say wont be returning to cold, the models tonight are giving very confusing trends, should have a better idea towards the weekend

ah I see, I live in hope then

snow ghost

jimmynokia wrote: »

this thread would be for the more mature members

OK Grandad.

Elmer Blooker

Of course we wont get a white Christmas! This is Ireland, no matter how cold it might get between now and Christmas you'd bet your house that a thaw will set in on Dec 23 or 24.

Kippure

jimmynokia wrote: »

hello all there is too many threads here with the weather outlooks
so this one is for the topic title
will it be a white Christmas?
post all updates here and weather charts/photos/news etc... thanks:D:D:D:D:D

I assure you, it will be a white christmas

redsteveireland

Kippure wrote: »

I assure you, it will be a white christmas

That's because you are a mountain.

Pangea

jimmynokia wrote: »

will it be a white Christmas?:D:D

Yes.

desolate sun

If everybody closed their eyes on November 25th at 3pm* and wished for a White Christmas, then their wish will come true.









*I forgot to do this, but I am wishing everyday, so hopefully that will work!

nacho libre

I think there will be snow left on the ground, but we will have less cold conditions on Christmas day.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

I think there will be snow left on the ground, but we will have less cold conditions on Christmas day.

What makes you say that?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

What makes you say that?

well WolfeIRE mentioned on his website and on here that one of the models are showing a breakdown around that period, it has not been just one run either. I hope it's just the gfs reverting to mild zonal default in fi. they are notorious for it, but at the same time 8-9 days of cold sustained cold twice in one month in a climate like ours is very difficult to achieve.

Musicman2000

Lads its well in F1, we dont even have the new cold spell yet, anything could happen between now and then

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

well WolfeIRE mentioned on his website and on here that one of the models are showing a breakdown around that period, it has not been just one run either. I hope it's just the gfs reverting to mild zonal default in fi. they are notorious for it, but at the same time 8-9 days of cold sustained cold twice in one month in a climate like ours is very difficult to achieve.

Trying to be optimistic in our outlook with people like you in our country is very difficult to achieve also :P , still 2 weeks away everything to play for!

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Trying to be optimistic in our outlook with people like you in our country is very difficult to achieve also :P , still 2 weeks away everything to play for!

it's better to be realistic. it was unbridled optimism and not thinking of tomorrow that got us into trouble in the first place;)

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

it's better to be realistic. it was unbridled optimism and not thinking of tomorrow that got us into trouble in the first place;)

Whoever said optisimitic isnt realistic ? many a time your pessimism has not been realistic! The realism here is that there its 2 weeks away ,anything can happen.

WolfeIRE

latest gfs rolling out now but i would be inclined to stick with the ecm model in its next run. It has been consistent along with the UKMO in recent days. When these two are in line with each other I would not pay as much attention to GFS. ECM has cold lasting into stephens day at present. This i feel is more likely. This is not to discount the gfs but the latter has been upgrading and downgrading more than Fitch in the past 4-5 days.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Whoever said optisimitic isnt realistic ? many a time your pessimism has not been realistic! The realism here is that there its 2 weeks away ,anything can happen.

As you say it's two weeks away, so given our climate, the realism from my perspective is not discounting that it could get mild, at least temporarily, when there are already indications that it may. Being optimistic is fine, so long as you don't ignore these things and don't object to people giving different views.
There has been a consistent trend from one of the models showing a milder interlude around Christmas. Also weatheroutlooks Brian Gaze has hinted at a breakdown sometime around then too. I'd love if it didn't get milder but saying that it might isn't being overly pessimistic, it's being realistic. There is a difference.
I'll be as happy as anyone if we do infact get a white christmas.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

As you say it's two weeks away, so given our climate, the realism from my perspective is not discounting that it could get mild, at least temporarily, when there are already indications that it may. Being optimistic is fine, so long as you don't ignore these things and don't object to people giving different views.
There has been a consistent trend from one of the models showing a milder interlude around Christmas. Also weatheroutlooks Brian Gaze has hinted at a breakdown sometime around then too. I'd love if it didn't get milder but saying that it might isn't being overly pessimistic, it's being realistic. There is a difference.
I'll be as happy as anyone if we do infact get a white christmas.

You distinguished a difference between my view and your view . You said it was better to be realistic than having my point of view.
With all the snowmaggadon charts running around I would say its more realistic to say its gona be a cold xmas period than a mild one.
Just because Ireland has a mild climate does not make your view of a mild xmas realistic, we are easily influenced by the artic in these scenarios. Anything can happen with mother nature and I dont think saying it will be a cold xmas is unrealistic.
Also I never objected to anyone giving their view.

mike65

the GFS on wetterzentral shows double figures for Dec 25th/26th, but only 2-4 for 24th and colder before then.

Mobhi1

MT says in this morning's forecast that no matter what the models are saying the cold is likely to dig in for a while after next weekend and a white Christmas is likely!

BengaLover

No gerry ryan jokes please!!:D:D:D

pauldry

As I write me dew point has dipped to 3.3c after been at 5.4c this morning.

Anyways as for white christmas I would tend to agree(with nacho libre) that there will be snow lying on the ground at least but it may be milder at this stage , I hope not though.

Whatever happens the models (which I dont look into as I dont understand them much) are consistently bringing a very cold spell from next Friday onwards and it seems to last till Xmas.

At this time as if by some tease mild air would seem to be pushing up for Xmas day but well have to see if it has any yuletide joy in doing this.

M.T. Cranium

I think the betting shops require a report of falling snow to verify white Christmas bets, no? The chances of that are about 50-50 in my opinion. First of all, the chances of a conducive temperature at Dublin during the day appear to be about two in three. From that we have to apply the percentage chance of any precip which is also about two in three. That gives you 4/9 as the cumulative probability, or 44% ... just a rough estimate at this point.

If you can get white Christmas bets for locations in Scotland and northern or central England, I would suggest you try those, I would avoid London because of the reduced probability of both conducive temperature and precip there. Don't waste a bet on NYC, I think they will be around 10 C.

Can you still get odds on Dublin? I hope y'all placed yer bets in November.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

You distinguished a difference between my view and your view . You said it was better to be realistic than having my point of view.
With all the snowmaggadon charts running around I would say its more realistic to say its gona be a cold xmas period than a mild one.
Just because Ireland has a mild climate does not make your view of a mild xmas realistic, we are easily influenced by the artic in these scenarios. Anything can happen with mother nature and I dont think saying it will be a cold xmas is unrealistic.
Also I never objected to anyone giving their view.

Well since you expressed mild annoyance with my view, i thought it was fair to put forward the case for my point of view.
I do think i'm being realistic, and it's good to be that way, as past experience has shown that when snowmageddon is forecast more often than not it doesn't come to pass.
This is still six- seven days out. The coldest weather could end up being shunted out into the Atlantic or plunge down into Europe. You can view this as being needlessly pessimistic, but when it comes to cold weather nothing is a lock no matter what the charts presently show. Nevermind 14 days away.
I've often in the past seen significant snow forecasted only for things to not work out that way in the end. So, like i said, i'm not going to get carried away just yet.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

Well since you expressed mild annoyance with my view, i thought it was fair to put forward the case for my point of view.
I do think i'm being realistic, and it's good to be that way, as past experience has shown that when snowmageddon is forecast more often than not it doesn't come to pass.
This is still six- seven days out. The coldest weather could end up being shunted out into the Atlantic or plunge down into Europe. You can view this as being needlessly pessimistic, but when it comes to cold weather nothing is a lock no matter what the charts presently show. Nevermind 14 days away.
I've often in the past seen significant snow forecasted only for things to not work out that way in the end. So, like i said, i'm not going to get carried away just yet.

lol I was not annoyed at all, I dont know where you are getting that from ,I think you are the one showing mild annoyance because I said you where being pessimestic.
Fair enough it may be mild for xmas, all Im saying is you can never rule out anything. To say for example that we are never gona get a winter like the last one is being negative in my opinion, and the fact is that it happened already this winter. Sure its Ireland we can get a mild and wet xmas easy but other extremes can happen easily enough aswell. So to say that your view of a mild xmas at this stage is realistic doesnt ring true for me im afraid. I dont think my view of a cold christmas is unrealstic either. I think probable is a better word to use than realistic, the long term forecasts seem to think its more probable that it will be cold.
Lets agree to disagree on this one.

derekon

Pangea wrote: »

lol I was not annoyed at all, I dont know where you are getting that from ,I think you are the one showing mild annoyance because I said you where being pessimestic.
Fair enough it may be mild for xmas, all Im saying is you can never rule out anything. To say for example that we are never gona get a winter like the last one is being negative in my opinion, and the fact is that it happened already this winter. Sure its Ireland we can get a mild and wet xmas easy but other extremes can happen easily enough aswell. So to say that your view of a mild xmas at this stage is realistic doesnt ring true for me im afraid. I dont think my view of a cold christmas is unrealstic either. I think probable is a better word to use than realistic, the long term forecasts seem to think its more probable that it will be cold.
Lets agree to disagree on this one.

I would have to agree with Pangea on this one. Yes, it could turn out mild and wet for Ireland on Christmas Day.

However the models are now becoming very consistent in respect of the upcoming cold - nothing is ever certain and I understand the models in FI can go either way. However I think its fair to say that a White Christmas is more "likely" in Ireland this year than any other christmas over the past decade