Jive ~ All Sports

fkiely

jive wrote: »

Chelsea 2 - 0 Man City @ 13/2
Correct Score

Going to have a gamble on this because City are incredibly boring and Chelsea have been upping it a bit recently. I can see them beating City 2-0 and Paddy Power are doing a special where if Torres scores last or Tevez scores last then you get your money back if you don't get the correct score. I think if City score anything at Stamford Bridge it will probably be through Tevez. So hopefully Chelsea win 2-0 or Tevez/Torres gets the last! Worth the squeeze I think!

1 Point @ 13/2

Well done fella, very nice.

jive

fkiely wrote: »

Well done fella, very nice.

Cheers, thought I was on to a bit of a stinker when Tevez wasn't involved. Got lucky in the end but ya need a bit of luck

jive

jive wrote: »

Napoli v Cagliari @ 6/4
To Win to Nil

Udinese v Catania @ 7/5
To Win to Nil

2 Points @ 5/1

LOSE Udinese win 2-0 but Napoli won 2-1.

+4.5 points today

Profit +31.64

jive

Chelsea to win the Champions League @ 13/2
Chelsea seem to be coming back to form. The way I look at it is if they beat United they will make the final. I don't rate Inter or Schalke too highly. Inter were good under Mourinho but they're not great this year. Chelsea have also had a relatively poor year but they seem to blow hot and cold every year. They have an easy run in in the league and a few wins on the trot will see Chelsea confident again and hopefully Torres will settle in. I think Torres will get a few goals in the next few games judging from the opposition they will be facing. The only downside is that Luiz won't be available for the Champions League matches.

United seem to do the same thing they do every year. Play fairly bog standard football and pull out results like they did against Bolton at the weekend. They are playing consistently OK and doing well as a result. The difference is I don't think United have anyone to turn to this year in the Champions League when the going gets tough. Rooney doesn't look half the man he was last year and I don't think he's going to find goals any time soon. He will just keep playing OK. Berba has gotten a few goals this year but he will struggle against Chelsea's defence imo. I just think Chelsea will have them beat over the 2 legs. They came from behind in the league to beat United 2-1 and that will be a mental boost for this fixture.

13/2 is just too big a price imo. United may well knock Chelsea out but based on current form I just have a fancy for Chelsea. Inter/Schalke will be beat by either of these over 2 legs imo. On the other side of the draw I fancy Barca/Madrid semi final with Barca making the final. This is an obvious prediction but it is one I think will happen. I don't think Barca are a certainty to beat Madrid though despite hammering the **** out of them earlier this year because Mourinho is a machine in the CL. You can't argue with his record. Spurs may well upset Madrid but over the course of 2 legs you have to fancy Madrid and Mourinho to go through.

I'm taking this as an E/W bet because if Chelsea go to the final it will be a toss up. I don't fancy Chelsea to beat Barca but if they were to meet Madrid then I'd expect them to take it. But remembering what happened the last time Chelsea played Barca makes me think that Chelsea could well go all the way this year if they hit a good spell now which it looks like they are going to do. This bet will provide me with 180 minutes of entertainment at the very least, hopefully more!

1.5 E/W @ 13/2 (3 points staked in total)

jive

Ireland, England, Spain and Greece to win @ 7/2
Enhanced special on Paddy Power. Saw this posted in the football tips thread and it works out at 2.13/1 originally. I'm not going to write in detail about each team but you have to fancy all of them. All fairly strong favourites and will hopefully get the job done. Can't say much more than that. While I fancy this I'm not going to have a big stake because it is 4 teams and with more teams brings a greater chance of one messing things up! The price does however represent good value in my eyes so it is worth taking a gamble at. It will also provide some entertainment because I probably won't be betting on any other international matches as they can be quite like cup matches and throw up some crazy results.

2 Points @ 7/2

jive

Brighton v Notts County @ 4/7

Leyton Orient v Dag&Red @ 10/11

Match Previews : http://www.skysports.com/football/match_preview/0,19764,11065_3354231,00.html
and
http://www.skysports.com/football/match_preview/0,19764,11065_3372294,00.html

No write up as I'm stuck for time I'm afraid. Previews above should suffice. Pretty much just going off of form as per usual.

1 Point Double @ 2/1 (bet365)

note: all my prices quoted are with paddy power unless stated otherwise. I thought i mentioned this in my first post of the log but have only just realised that I didn't!

jive

jive wrote: »

Brighton v Notts County @ 4/7

Leyton Orient v Dag&Red @ 10/11

Match Previews : http://www.skysports.com/football/match_preview/0,19764,11065_3354231,00.html
and
http://www.skysports.com/football/match_preview/0,19764,11065_3372294,00.html

No write up as I'm stuck for time I'm afraid. Previews above should suffice. Pretty much just going off of form as per usual.

1 Point Double @ 2/1 (bet365)

note: all my prices quoted are with paddy power unless stated otherwise. I thought i mentioned this in my first post of the log but have only just realised that I didn't!

LOSE
Brighton win 1-0 but the O's draw 1-1!

jive

jive wrote: »

Ireland, England, Spain and Greece to win @ 7/2
Enhanced special on Paddy Power. Saw this posted in the football tips thread and it works out at 2.13/1 originally. I'm not going to write in detail about each team but you have to fancy all of them. All fairly strong favourites and will hopefully get the job done. Can't say much more than that. While I fancy this I'm not going to have a big stake because it is 4 teams and with more teams brings a greater chance of one messing things up! The price does however represent good value in my eyes so it is worth taking a gamble at. It will also provide some entertainment because I probably won't be betting on any other international matches as they can be quite like cup matches and throw up some crazy results.

2 Points @ 7/2

England and Spain have won. And Armenia held Russia! And in the cricket Sri Lanka smashed England....

Greece and Ireland still to run! C'mon!

jive

jive wrote: »

Ireland, England, Spain and Greece to win @ 7/2

2 Points @ 7/2

Ireland 2 - 1 Macedonia
Wales 0 - 2 England
Spain 2 - 1 Czech Republic
Malta 0 - 1 Greece

The Greece match was unbelievable Geoff. Referee gave a straight red for a professional foul on the half way circle in the 84th minute leaving Greece to play with 10 men. They got a jammy winner then from a free kick in the 94th minute. Truth be told I threw a few real life euros on the draw (@ 5/2) in the Greek game when Ireland went 2-0 up. Put on exactly enough to match my stake for the 7/2 so I'd at least be even if Greece actually managed not to beat Malta (I mean MALTA. Conceded 9 in 4 games scoring just once. 0 points from 4 games. Greece had a mare - a win is a win though).

Profit +37.64

jive

Vettel to win the Australian grand prix @ evens (Enhanced Paddy Power Special)
Vettel is the world champion and was a different class in qualifying. He ended up 0.778s ahead of Hamilton in second. He's 4/6 in most bookies so this special represents a small bit of value. He's never won in Australia but was winning last year until his car failed.

I was going to back him to win the F1 season outright but he has since shortened to 11/10, best price available on betfair at 29/25. If he doesn't pick up many points in the first few races and begins to drift a bit I might have a look at him again.

I don't like betting large amounts on F1 because there are so many possibilities with crashes, technical errors, weather etc. all having a big part to play. I strongly fancy him to win this tomorrow but like I said, I don't like betting large amounts on F1!

1 Point win @ evens

jive

jive wrote: »

Vettel to win the Australian grand prix @ evens
1 Point win @ evens

WIN
Won easy 22.3 seconds ahead of second place and 30.5 seconds ahead of third. Lead from start to finish.

Profit +38.64

jive

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Holland v Hungary
29-03-2011 19:30
Alternative Handicap
Holland (-1.0) @ 2/5

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Sweden v Moldova
29-03-2011 18:00
Win-Draw-Win
Sweden @ 2/11

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Lithuania v Spain
29-03-2011 19:45
Win-Draw-Win
Spain @ 3/10

No time for an explanation I'm afraid but they are all pretty self explanatory. Holland have been hot in qualifying and the other 2 have too much class for their opponents.
2 Point Double @ 1.15/1

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Estonia v Serbia
29-03-2011 19:30
Win-Draw-Win
Draw @ 9/4

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Israel v Georgia
29-03-2011 18:05
Win-Draw-Win
Draw @ 12/5

Serbia not playing great and Georgia playing fairly well at the moment. Again, no time for proper explanation but a draw in these matches wouldn't surprise me.
0.2 Points double @ 10.05

jive

jive wrote: »

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Holland v Hungary
Holland (-1.0) @ 2/5

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Sweden v Moldova
Sweden @ 2/11

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Lithuania v Spain
Spain @ 3/10
2 Point Treble* @ 1.15/1

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Estonia v Serbia
Draw @ 9/4

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Israel v Georgia
Draw @ 12/5

0.2 Points double @ 10.05

WIN and LOSE
Sweden win 2-1, Holland 5-3 and Spain 3-1.

Estonia drew 1-1 with Serbia but Israel won 1-0. Pity I didnt throw N.I. in instead of the Israel match because it looks like they're on the way to a draw and I fancied them to draw as well. Hindsight is a great thing though because I fancied Israel to be held more so at the time!

Keeps me nicely ticking over anyway as the main bet came in. Slow and steady wins the race!

Profit +40.74

jive

Anthony Kim to win the Masters @ 66/1 (bet365)
He came came in the T20 in 2009 and 3rd in 2010. He's playing some good stuff today in Houston and based on his performance last year I think if he turns up he will have a chance. Last year i backed Mickelson and Westwood who finished 1 and 2. I did like the look of Kim though and although he can be inconsistent he has the ability to put in low rounds. Based on what I've seen from Houston he seems to be finding some form too and I don't expect this price to be around until the weekend. He will probably go off at less than 40 if he can keep performing over the weekend in Houston. So I'm going to have a nibble at this massively overpriced bet. He's already 40/1 with Paddy Power.

So in short, 66/1 for a top player who finished 3rd last year. Regardless of whether this comes in or not it is definitely overpriced and I'd be stupid not to have a bet on it. Golf can be a bit of a lottery at times so I'm not going to have a big bet. I may have a few more bets on this during the week as well. I won't be putting anything on unless I see something I like though.

0.25 Points e/w @ 66/1 (pays 1/4 odds, 5 places) (0.5 Point staked in total)

jive

1 more I'm going to take today:
Hunter Mahan to win the Masters @ 33/1 (bet365)
Finished T10 in 2009 and T8 in 2010 so for the last 2 years he has been there or thereabouts. He's been a bit inconsistent in 2011 but came second at Pebble Beach and has a few T10s under his belt so his confidence will be fine. His record shows that he's going from strength to strength in Augusta and fingers crossed he'll be in with a chance again this year.

Woods, Mickelson and Westwood lead the betting. None of them have set the world alight this year. Mickelson has been OK haven't seen much of Westwood at all. From what I've seen that gob****e Woods has been a disaster but I suppose you can never count him out. Hopefully a year where one of the 'outsiders' can come out on top at Augusta.

0.25 Points e/w @ 33/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)(0.5 Point staked in total)

jive

GAA Football Matches Dublin v Down
02-04-2011 19:30
Winning Margin
Down 1-3 pts @ 4/1

Dublin looked poor at the back the last day in the league and as a result have made 5 changes to their backline. Down haven't been great away from home this year but need to win this more than the Dubs. Dublin have won 5 in 5 and only need 1 more point to make it to the final. I think the weather will prove a great leveler. It was pissing down earlier on for the hurling and as a result the pitch obviously won't be in top condition. I think taking last years All Ireland finalists at 4/1 to win by 1-3 is a good bet because should they win it won't be by much. I think the same can be said for a Dublin win. I believe the weather will result in a tight affair and hopefully Down can just nick it. It's a 50/50 imo and as a result I see more value in Down taking the win by 1-3 points @ 4/1.

I was tempted to take under 33.5 points but it has gone into 4/6 so there's not much value there. Based on what happened in Croke Park the last day it's probably best to avoid it anyway.
0.5 Points @ 4/1

jive

jive wrote: »

GAA Football Matches Dublin v Down
02-04-2011 19:30
Winning Margin
Down 1-3 pts @ 4/1

0.5 Points @ 4/1

LOSE
Balls to that anyway. Down leading by a point going into the 70th minute then concede a goal and a point. Finished 2-10 to 0-13. Pity I didnt go for the points total in the end but hindsight is a great thing!

jive

Lee Westwood to win the Masters @ 16/1 (VC)
Probably going to be my last bet for the Masters. He finished 2nd last year and probably should have won it. That experience will serve him in good stead this year. I backed him at 18/1 last year and I still think he's great value at 16/1. He hit a 74 today in Houston and as a result has drifted a small bit so I'm going to take this price now. He's as consistent as they come for the last year. He came 2nd and 2 majors and is hopefully on the cusp of a win. I think he can do it this year if he performs to his ability. Mickelson again is probably the main danger and Woods is never too far away but I don't think Woods can put 4 decent rounds back to back at the minute (although he is awesome at the Masters so I could be wrong but I just don't see it happening right now - having said that he won't be far away!).

I'd like to go big on this one but Mickelson scares me (albeit he's far too short to take on) so I'm only going to have another small poke. Hopefully the other 2 (Kim and Mahan) will be in contention but if they aren't I am sure Westwood will be to provide some entertainment for the 4 days. I'm hoping McIlroy will be in with a shout but for the sake of $$$ I hope one of my three take it home. I have a good feeling that this may be Westwoods year as he's really at the peak of his career imo having hit #1 in the world not so long ago. Westwood is currently #2 in the world behind Kaymer but Kaymer has a poor record at Augusta so I don't expect much from him. Fingers crossed that Westwood will finally do the business.
0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 (1/4 odds 5 places)(1 point staked in total)

jive

Champions League Matches Barcelona v Shakhtar Donetsk
Barcelona @ 2/9
Short and simple - crap price but Barcelona should have too much for Shakhtar and assuming the other 3 come in it will provide some entertainment midweek!

Premier League Matches Fulham v Blackpool
Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7
Blackpool are nuts and while Fulham tend to be quite a difficult team to break down I just couldn't help but go for over 2.5 goals. Last game in craven cottage ended up 3-2 to Fulham against Blackburn. I fancy Blackpool to have a good go at it as per usual.

Serie A Matches Napoli v Lazio
Napoli @ 4/5
Napoli are great at home and Lazio are crap away. Napoli are in better form than Lazio at the minute and Cavani is playing nicely. Napoli will hopefully be too good for Lazio.

Serie A Matches Roma v Juventus
Roma @ 5/6
Roma are the in form team between these 2 and got a draw in Turin earlier this season. I think Roma will be too good for an injury riddled Juve team who are really struggling atm.

I rarely do accumulators but there isn't much on offer tomorrow and this will hopefully have a good run. I think it has a good chance of coming in as far as accumulators go. Due to it being an accum I'm just using a small stake.

0.8 Points @ 5.34/1

jive

jive wrote: »

Premier League Matches Fulham v Blackpool
Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7

Serie A Matches Napoli v Lazio
Napoli @ 4/5
Napoli are great at home and Lazio are crap away. Napoli are in better form than Lazio at the minute and Cavani is playing nicely. Napoli will hopefully be too good for Lazio.

0.8 Points @ 5.34/1

Cavani gets a hat trick and Napoli win 4-3 after being 2-0 down 2-0 to Fulham at half time in that match, bet looks safe

jive

jive wrote: »

Champions League Matches Barcelona v Shakhtar Donetsk
Barcelona @ 2/9
Premier League Matches Fulham v Blackpool
Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7
Serie A Matches Napoli v Lazio
Napoli @ 4/5
Serie A Matches Roma v Juventus
Roma @ 5/6.

0.8 Points @ 5.34/1

LOSE

First 2 bets come in (barcelona yet to run) but Roma are down 2 to Juve. Pity because it could have went either way! They just hit the bar there and were caught on the break to go 2 down. Oh well!

jive

Kilkenny to win the All Ireland Championship @ 13/8
Kilkenny are a class act and for some reason are 13/8 with Paddy Power to win the hurling. The only other team in the country who can match them are Tipp and the main reason I think Tipp won the final last year is due to Henry Shefflin being unfit. The only other team who -might- be capable of beating them is Waterford but I think Waterford are a team in transition and are trying to bring in some fresh blood so I don't think it'll be their year (again). This bet will provide good value for money anyway because Kilkenny will surely go all the way to September. They will be hungrier than ever to win the championship after being nipped at the post for the 5 in a row last year. I just think it's a great price. A team who were going for 5 in a row and were only beaten in the final last year. Hurling has been a 2 horse race at best in recent years and this year is no different. Kilkenny @ 13/8. Doesn't get much better than that given their record. Possibility of hedging the bet if they make it to the final but I don't even think that's necessary.

Kerry to win the All Ireland Championship @ 10/3
Kerry always seem to be there or thereabouts even though it pains me to see it. I think they'll be right up there again this year. Cork are a better team but even though they are the champions I still think they are well and truly able of bottling it in Croke Park. They didn't win convincingly last year and although they're a quality team I can see them getting beat this year. The football is really up in the air this year and thats why I think Kerry will win it. They have the experience required to go all the way. I reckon Galvin is going to have a big year this year again. He's a quality player and wasn't right on the money last year. There are other threats than Cork including Down, Dublin and Tyrone. I think Tyrone @ 8/1 look a good value bet(but I can't be having them until they come up against real opposition) given that this is a fairly open championship. They've been there before and know what it takes. I don't think Down are as good a team as the others listed here even though they made it to the final last year.

I hope Kerry avoid Tyrone if I'm honest because Tyrone seem to have the key to beat Kerry almost every time. Dublin are playing great stuff in the league but time will tell if they will be able to continue that all the way through to the end of the championship - I have my doubts as they are hyped up every year and never seem to deliver - much like Cork until last year.Kerry have been to the final 6 out of the last 7 years and they're not exactly a weekend team. 10/3 offers great value considering that record and if they do manage to make it to the final it will give me the option of hedging this bet. After being knocked out in the quarters last year they won't be happy and a year without winning the big one is a disappointment in Kerry. They'll be well up for it this year and they have the potential to go all the way. It is an open championship so while Kerry have shown they are still a solid outfit it certainly isn't set in stone. Given their record and the fact that they are certainly not a team in decline I'd snap up 10/3 all day and if the perform in Munster this year that price won't be around for long.

I'd like to invest a good bit in this but I don't like putting too much on long running bets such as these. The football championship is an open one but like I said I think Kerry have the tools to go all the way this year. It's certainly worthy of 2 points, however.

2 Points Double @ 10.38/1

jive

Tiger Woods to win the Masters @ 12/1
Woods has drifted out to 12/1 and I can't see that price lasting even if he is playing poorly. Last year he was playing worse than he is currently and still managed 4th. He's an animal on that course at 12/1 is bad value given how poor he has played over the last 2 years but history tends to repeat itself so I think it's worth a small bet. He's never too far away and there's a good chance of getting a return from this bet even if he doesn't win it. Mickelson has gone into a ridiculous 13/2 which has pushed out Woods to 12s. I believe he started at 8s.
0.25 Points E/W (Places 1-6) (0.5 Points staked in total)

jive

Real Madrid Over 1.5 Cards @ 5/6
Madrid are playing Spurs tonight in the quarters. Starts soon so going to keep this simple. Madrid don't have the greatest defensive wing backs in the game in Ramos and Marcelo who will be up against Bale and Lennon. Spurs will probably look to counter a bit tonight and I can see a bit of professional fouling going on!

1.5 Points @ 5/6

jive

jive wrote: »

Real Madrid Over 1.5 Cards @ 5/6
1.5 Points @ 5/6

WIN
Bet comes in after 36 minutes. Lennon didn't play (pulled out with sickness last minute) but Bale got Pepe booked in the 36th minute. Adebayor went in hard at ~10 minutes and got a booking for it. Easy money and great price. Spotted it in Football Tips thread, great spot by whoever saw it because I'd not have even looked at that market!

Profit +40.69

jive

Spanish Copa Del Rey Barcelona v Real Madrid - Mestella Stadium
20-04-2011 20:30
Barcelona @ evens

Taking this one early because I don't think Barcelona will be available at evens closer to the game. Short and simple Barcelona are the best team I've ever seen and I'd take them at evens at home or away to any team in the world. They beat Madrid 5-0 earlier this season which shows they have more quality than Madrid although the gap between the 2 teams may not be quite that big! Barca are special and if they perform they'll win comfortably.
Going to have a max bet on this one because I think it's smashing value.

5 Points @ evens

jive

Europa League Matches Porto v Spartak Moscow
Porto @ 4/11
Porto won the league at the weekend so all focus will be on the Europa League from now on. They are a quality team who have won all their home games this year. I expect more of the same tonight and I think they have a bit more class in the team than Spartak. Porto are no fools and will know that they will want to go to Moscow with at least a 1 goal win here because everyone knows that Russia is not an easy place to get anything from.

Europa League Matches Villarreal v FC Twente
Villarreal @ 4/6
Villarreal not doing too hot in La Liga at the minute but did hold Barca to 1 at the weekend. They could have easily gotten the draw in that match if it wasn't for Victor Valdes as well. I reckon they will find the going a lot easier at home tonight against Twente who are a good side but I don't think they have some of the quality players that Villarreal do have.

2 Points Double @ 1.27/1

jive

jive wrote: »

Europa League Matches Porto v Spartak Moscow
Porto @ 4/11

Europa League Matches Villarreal v FC Twente
Villarreal @ 4/6

2 Points Double @ 1.27/1

WIN

Easy wins for both. Porto won 5-1 and Villarreal 5-1. Pity I didn't take the minus 1 double which I was going to but I thought Moscow would put up more of a fight than they did. You always have to take into account that some teams will try to shut up shop when playing away from home in 2 leg matches which is why I didn't go for the minus 1 double in the end. But a win is a win Pity they all aren't that easy!

Profit +43.23

jive

hannover, udinese. 1 pt double nearly 4/1

in a rush so no reasoning!

jive

jive wrote: »

Chelsea to win the Champions League @ 13/2
1.5 E/W @ 13/2 (3 points staked in total)

LOSE Chelsea never found form and came against an in form United. Drogba didn't start the second leg, bit of a crap decision imo given he was coming in to form and he does well against united. Scored after coming on as a sub. I still think it has to be barca/madrid and it's hard to look passed barca.

jive wrote: »

Anthony Kim to win the Masters @ 66/1 (bet365)
0.25 Points e/w @ 66/1 (pays 1/4 odds, 5 places) (0.5 Point staked in total)

LOSE nowhere

jive wrote: »

1 more I'm going to take today:
Hunter Mahan to win the Masters @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25 Points e/w @ 33/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)(0.5 Point staked in total)

LOSE nowhere

jive wrote: »

Lee Westwood to win the Masters @ 16/1 (VC)
0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 (1/4 odds 5 places)(1 point staked in total)

LOSE T11

jive wrote: »

Tiger Woods to win the Masters @ 12/1
0.25 Points E/W (Places 1-6) (0.5 Points staked in total)

WIN Placed

jive wrote: »

hannover, udinese. 1 pt double nearly 4/1

LOSE Hannover 2-0 but Udinese got beat by Roma.

I had another bet on the golf that I seem to have forgotten to put up here Choi Top10 @ 6/1 (betfair). He came tied for 8th... I was sure I had it posted up... Oh well!! I was right in saying the golf could have been a bit of a lottery as well... certainly turned out that way. Tiger did well anyway thank God he was a bit overpriced because I certainly didn't fancy him. Good value bets prevail again

Pity about losing the 3 points on Chelsea but onwards and upwards. Only a minor setback. I don't know how that United team do it!! Could have been a different game had the penalty been given in the first leg. Given Chelsea's luck in recent years with decisions I don't know why I backed them :P

Profit +37.98