Severe weather: Snow and Ice and sub zero temperatures from Thursday

ro_chez

Well, I for one am glad that ME havent jumped on the hyperbole express yet.

I really dont want to be seeing empty shelves in the shops due to everyone panic buying because they think they wont get out of the house until the new year!

Its sure looking good though over the next week:D

irishmotorist

ro_chez wrote: »

I really dont want to be seeing empty shelves in the shops due to everyone panic buying because they think they wont get out of the house until the new year!

Cos of the time of year, panic buying is going to happen anyway. Shops are closed for 1 day, so better get 20 litres of milk, 10 sliced pans and half a pig worth of sossies!!! I reckon the shops are well stocked for it.

redsteveireland

darkman2 wrote: »

Anyways hope other forumers will give a chart by chart account of the 18z GFS run later (and post the new UK fax charts aswell for 96hrs and 120hrs). Exciting times ahead. Im off! Enjoy:)

When are they out? And who is going to step up to the plate?

Also I agree slightly with ro_chez, panic buying would be annoying, christmas shopping traffic is annoying enough already.

Brenireland

irishmotorist wrote: »

Cos of the time of year, panic buying is going to happen anyway. Shops are closed for 1 day, so better get 20 litres of milk, 10 sliced pans and half a pig worth of sossies!!! I reckon the shops are well stocked for it.

yum hungry now

ardmacha

half a pig worth of sossies

Being snowed in and munching on sassies.

Corkfeen

irishmotorist wrote: »

Cos of the time of year, panic buying is going to happen anyway. Shops are closed for 1 day, so better get 20 litres of milk, 10 sliced pans and half a pig worth of sossies!!! I reckon the shops are well stocked for it.

As long as we don't have a repeat of the pig crisis of 2008. It'll be like the famine all over again * Cue Joe Duffy Segment*

TheInquisitor

It has taken me quite a while this evening to find a place that gives historical sst's WITHOUT paying for the info. The best i could come up with was meteociel as it just about shows the irish sea.

I wonder is there any chance of some sea ice after the christmas period.

I mean a month ago everyone was worried about how high the SST's were compared to last year but now...wow are they lower and we're about to be hit by some extremly cold weather over the next few weeks.

Obviously 8-10 Degree SST's aren't going to give you anything. But what are peoples thoughts on us getting down to 0 Degree SST's by the end of winter? Last winter they got down to 0-1 degrees off the north coast of France. We're pretty close right now to where SST's were last february at their lowest.

Here's a comparison of charts from this year and last. Maybe im just being optimistic and completly wrong!

rilz

cabot wrote: »

UK sites are now reporting about the Arctic freeze and 50mph winds :eek:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8197479/The-Big-Freeze-set-to-return-to-deliver-white-Christmas.html

yer artic winds blowing us blizzard like conditions. Thursday for sure could be a fun day.

ro_chez

All this talk of blizzards, snowmaggedon etc is all well and good but I aint gonna be satisfied unless I get some thunder snow!

snow ghost

redsteveireland wrote: »

When are they out? And who is going to step up to the plate?

21:30-22:45 (GMT)

Not me, I'm slightly biased and any analysis I would put forward would be pure alarmist nonsense likely to create extreme panic and mass suicide. :pac:

rilz

ro_chez wrote: »

All this talk of blizzards, snowmaggedon etc is all well and good but I aint gonna be satisfied unless I get some thunder snow!

It could turn into a thundersnow event when the cold front passes south on Thursday.

patneve2

Looking at the latest GFS +96hrs, showers on Friday could be more widespread than people think (All over the country). Only a possibility though.

Rougies

TheInquisitor wrote: »

It has taken me quite a while this evening to find a place that gives historical sst's WITHOUT paying for the info. The best i could come up with was meteociel as it just about shows the irish sea.

I wonder is there any chance of some sea ice after the christmas period.

I mean a month ago everyone was worried about how high the SST's were compared to last year but now...wow are they lower and we're about to be hit by some extremly cold weather over the next few weeks.

Obviously 8-10 Degree SST's aren't going to give you anything. But what are peoples thoughts on us getting down to 0 Degree SST's by the end of winter? Last winter they got down to 0-1 degrees off the north coast of France. We're pretty close right now to where SST's were last february at their lowest.

Here's a comparison of charts from this year and last. Maybe im just being optimistic and completly wrong!

No chance! Even if the gulf stream was cut off we'd be unlikely to get sea ice at this latitude. We might get some ice in harbours and the likes where the water is quite still and shallow, especially where there's a river feeding unsalted water into it. Happened in Galway bay last January I think.

Where are you getting the 0-1 degrees off the north coast of france from?

sean555

Looks pretty cold for the weekend.

beagle001

Whats the outlook like for Galway fromt the 17th on?

Steopo

It's been fascinating & more than a bit addictive reading these threads over the last 3 weeks. So here's how I see it based on nothing more than reading these threads. Nearly 3 weeks ago during the Nov snow period MT flagged to watch the period of 18th - 20th Dec for potential winter storm based on a coming cold period and lots of lunar/solar activity around this time (forget all the technical detail).. maybe Jupiter & the moon been close together at the moment and lots of shooting stars tonight might have something to do with this but who knows. A week ago it became clear that there was a severe cold spell coming down from Greenland around Thurs 16th and the speed this was coming down was likely to bring severe winter weather. With a low below Ireland at the same time this would likely bring snow accumulations which could be significant (for Ireland my interpretation is that anything above 10cm is significant). More recently all models indicate that this cold spell is coming with possible rain preceding snow in the North/Northwest on thurs but turning to snow thurs/fri. Likely to bring snow to other areas of South & East later in the weekend. Wind direction, temp, positioning of lows etc.. will all play a part in where and how much snow will fall but until closer to the event nobody can predict what this will mean despite all the wishing for & against significant snow. Even then as can be seen for Nov/Dec snow it is never possible to completely pinpoint the level of accumulation & location of snowfall in Ireland. MT who frankly seems to have a remarkable knowledge combined with brilliant intuition & realism still seems to believe the 19th/20th will bring widespread snow in the form of a winter storm in a cold period that could last for 10 to 30 days. A lot of posts here are fun and great to read but pure speculation or wishful thinking. It will be a very interesting few days but people need to be real and don't expect a great night without a hangover so if this comes off it could be great for snow lovers like myself but be prepared for the hangover of transport chaos, lethal pavements, hearthbreaking Xmas stories etc.. Thanks to all for this insightful & entertaining forum

noworries

TheInquisitor wrote: »

It has taken me quite a while this evening to find a place that gives historical sst's WITHOUT paying for the info. The best i could come up with was meteociel as it just about shows the irish sea.

I wonder is there any chance of some sea ice after the christmas period.

I mean a month ago everyone was worried about how high the SST's were compared to last year but now...wow are they lower and we're about to be hit by some extremly cold weather over the next few weeks.

Obviously 8-10 Degree SST's aren't going to give you anything. But what are peoples thoughts on us getting down to 0 Degree SST's by the end of winter? Last winter they got down to 0-1 degrees off the north coast of France. We're pretty close right now to where SST's were last february at their lowest.

Here's a comparison of charts from this year and last. Maybe im just being optimistic and completly wrong!

The chances of 0 degree C this year are non-existent unless we get a Day After Tomorrow science fiction event. We are fortunate to have the North Atlantic drift just off our coast. THE coldest the waters get around Ireland are about 6-8 degrees C. With the East Coast being slightly cooler. So, no sea ice for us.

Now if the North Atlantic Drift were to 'switch off' as some researchers are pointing towards then maybe.... but not this year.

Pangea

Rougies wrote: »

We might get some ice in harbours and the likes where the water is quite still and shallow, especially where there's a river feeding unsalted water into it. Happened in Galway bay last January I think.

The harbour in Killybegs was totally frozen last christmas.
Also at the foot of the bay sea water was frozen again just last week, , about the size of a small lake.

Rodar08

Holy craaap!! I MAY have just gotten carried away!!! I just put 50 euro on a 7/2 bet on Paddypower that Derry will have a white Christmas!! I put one bet on in my life previous to this and I lost - it was the grand national. WHAT was I thinking? A moment of madness but .. meh I might get lucky!! lol bita craic I say, sure I'm skint anyway, what's a little skinter!:D

BTW I haven't commented for months but I've been reading away and just want to say thanks to all of my 'favourites' (no pun intented) on here who put so much effort in to forecasting. I love it :):)

Anybody have an inkling if I'm on to a goodn'? lol :cool:

kkontour

Rougies wrote: »

No chance! Even if the gulf stream was cut off we'd be unlikely to get sea ice at this latitude. We might get some ice in harbours and the likes where the water is quite still and shallow, especially where there's a river feeding unsalted water into it. Happened in Galway bay last January I think.

Where are you getting the 0-1 degrees off the north coast of france from?

Also happened in killybegs last winter
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055779103

delonglad

I'm flying into Dublin for Christmas on Friday evening it would want to hold off until I get to the pub!

Is it really going to be so bad?

Speak Now

North/west and south west should get plastered Thursday night/friday!

noworries

kkontour wrote: »

Also happened in killybegs last winter
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055779103

Fresh water has a lower density than sea water therefore it floats on top
of the sea water where it is very sheltered and litte 'mixing' taking place.

It may have frozen in Killybegs but I would be slow enough to don the ice skates

TheInquisitor

Rougies wrote: »

No chance! Even if the gulf stream was cut off we'd be unlikely to get sea ice at this latitude. We might get some ice in harbours and the likes where the water is quite still and shallow, especially where there's a river feeding unsalted water into it. Happened in Galway bay last January I think.

Where are you getting the 0-1 degrees off the north coast of france from?

I was meaning more towards ice in harbours etc and at the coast. I should have been more specific.

And on your question...France , Denmark...whats the differnce??

Rougies

Pangea wrote: »

The harbour in Killybegs was totally frozen last christmas.
Also at the foot of the bay sea water was frozen again just last week, , about the size of a small lake.

kkontour wrote: »

Also happened in killybegs last winter
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055779103

Ah yeah, that's the one I was thinking of. Thanks.

isle of man

so is the isle of man going to get plasted

TheMilkyPirate

Sunday could be interesting for the south east with that low passing just to the south.

Sponge Bob

Snow accumulation chart upgraded in 18z from 12z ( not where it was in the 06z though)

Rougies

TheInquisitor wrote: »

I was meaning more towards ice in harbours etc and at the coast. I should have been more specific.

And on your question...France , Denmark...whats the differnce??

Ah, ok I can see the little black bits in the sheltered bays on the north coast of France/Germany etc now (wasn't looking closely the first time )

Pangea

noworries wrote: »

Fresh water has a lower density than sea water therefore it floats on top
of the sea water where it is very sheltered and litte 'mixing' taking place.

It may have frozen in Killybegs but I would be slow enough to don the ice skates

Theres not much fresh water in killybegs harbour, its the atlantic through and through Only one small river that feeds into the bay from the other direction , and the harbour is still around 1 mile from so there so the fresh water is not even worth talking about.