Severe weather: Snow and Ice and sub zero temperatures from Thursday

Speak Now

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Coldest air appears to have shifted more east towards Britain in GFS now rolling out

ps...can we keep this thread more specific to analysis of the upcoming cold spell if possible. Maybe question regarding snow in specific locations and/or general comments about snow can be placed elsewhere. It's hard to keep track of the analysis otherwise.

Would be great alright, the last spell was impossible to follow with all the glory hunters asking would in show in my back yard :pac:
Seriously though i did notice a lot of the regular contributers disappeared during the last cold spell. Big migration to net weather i'd say.

GavinH

leahyl wrote: »

NOT liking the look of this although it is only for Thursday. The dreaded D word is also starting to make an appearance...

Friday looking alot better.

Speak Now

The dreaded motified air on Saturday

[URL="javascript: viewimage(1);"][/URL]

WolfeIRE

Hate to say it but as always it looks like a nowcasting situation come Thursday eve and Friday, as well as the weekend.

I just cannot see any consistency with these models. I am convinced some parts of Ireland will see some very heavy snowfall, particularly the areas I mentioned a few posts ago.

Come friday night and into the weekend snow could fall just about anywhere. I am looking at this gfs and it is one confused looking computer generated model at present. I am not going to comment on it any further.

Speak Now

We could really do with the low pressure over northern England moving much further south.

leahyl

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

The dreaded motified air on Saturday

[URL="javascript: viewimage(1);"][/URL]

Can you explain what this means?

WolfeIRE

leahyl wrote: »

Can you explain what this means?

not a million miles off what elmer was saying
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69551193&postcount=477

leahyl

WolfeIRE wrote: »

not a million miles off what elmer was saying
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69551193&postcount=477

Oh no.....not again:( This is one rollercoaster of a ride!

Pangea

Ah bollocks, I thought there was no end in sight to the cold spell, snow that doesnt last is not worth much in my opinion.

WolfeIRE

weatheronline.co.uk
Snow by the end of the week for most of the country, cold for all

Cold weather is going to be returning through the week. There could be some widespread snow through Thursday, with conditions then turning much colder. Staying cold through the weekend with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing. There will be some snow showers too, most on the coasts. Early next week presents the possibility of some more persistent snow, before a battle begins between warm air to the south and cold air to the north for Christmas.


We are watching Tuesday closely as this is the day when the weather we can expect through Christmas is likely to be decided. Warm air will be to the south and cold air to the north. There will be some rain, sleet and snow, although how far north the warm air extends will determine whether Christmas is mild or cold. Highs at 6C over southern England, -5C in central Scotland.

smokin ace

i know is a very long way away yet but whats the chances of snow falling or just being on the ground for christmas day

lucernarian

I never had much faith in northerly synoptics to deliver widespread snow in this country. I therefore still stick to my original conclusion that the usual NWerly suspects will be the ones to have lying snow over Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday are still proving to be nigh on impossible to predict definitively, but I get the feeling that snow will not be widespread and instead heavy amounts will be confined to certain areas.

Unless this setup can develop into a long-term cold spell, I think it will not surpass the previous 2 weeks in most areas. Corkonians should be most happy perhaps, as they have a chance of heavy snow and most of them saw feck-all up to now.

As far as Leinster is concerned, the only way to realistically exceed the foot of snow many places saw is to have a stalled attempt from the atlantic to push up some warmth over us. Those events are pretty rare, and I've never seen an Atlantic front stall over Ireland in my 6 years of following meteorology online.

So while this weekend is too uncertain to predict, precedence is on "cold but dry's" side (or indeed "cold rain's" side). Whenever I have seen shallow lows approach Ireland, those pesky warm sectors have spoiled the party consistently. I would reiterate that the NW of this island needs to prepare and prepare sharpish for this cold spell.

(Apologies, this looks awfully hunch-based when I read over it)

Brenireland

WolfeIRE wrote: »

weatheronline.co.uk
Snow by the end of the week for most of the country, cold for all

Cold weather is going to be returning through the week. There could be some widespread snow through Thursday, with conditions then turning much colder. Staying cold through the weekend with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing. There will be some snow showers too, most on the coasts. Early next week presents the possibility of some more persistent snow, before a battle begins between warm air to the south and cold air to the north for Christmas.


We are watching Tuesday closely as this is the day when the weather we can expect through Christmas is likely to be decided. Warm air will be to the south and cold air to the north. There will be some rain, sleet and snow, although how far north the warm air extends will determine whether Christmas is mild or cold. Highs at 6C over southern England, -5C in central Scotland.

& here is the mets outlook:

"Wednesday night will be dry over Munster and Leinster with clear spells and frost early in the night. Freshening westerly winds will mostly clear any frost overnight. It will be cloudier in Connacht and Ulster with some rain or drizzle near north and northwest coasts. This rain will become more persistent towards morning and will then spread southwards over the country on Thursday, possibly falling as sleet on high ground further south. It will clear later in the day and very cold air will follow with fresh northerly winds. This will mark the beginning of a cold spell for Thursday night, Friday, the weekend and the early days of next week. There'll be widespread sharp or severe frosts at night and temperatures by day won't rise much above zero. Wintry showers of rain, hail, sleet and possibly snow will affect northern, western and southwestern coastal counties on Thursday night and Friday with a risk of thunder. These wintry showers will become more widespread across the country over the weekend with a continued risk of thunder and a likelihood of accumulations of snow in places."

gbee

Pangea wrote: »

He didnt say south west :P
edit: just realised that cork is not really south west, my appauling knowdeldge of things down south has become apparent lol

Cork is the largest chunk of realestate in Ireland. It's about 50 miles north/south

And just short of 100 miles east/west. Cork City itself is just about on the pivotal dividing line east/west. It's on the coast and benefits from the warming effects of the Gulf Stream.

It's historically enjoyed good weather and an island in the harbour is called FOTA, that's from the Irish meaning warm turf, there is an exotic garden there as there are dotted along the SSW coast.

It was recently pointed out by another poster to these boards that Cork and the SSW coast may have been free of ice during the last ice age ~ and we have a unique species of frog.

Colm R

Been reading this thread for a while now. and getting nervous every day. I have to do a lot of driving from next week right through to New Years, with work and personal commitments.

Whilst I love snow, I'm incredibly nervous about it all.

gbee

sunbabe08 wrote: »

20 cm of snow for cork:eek::eek::eek:

You know that's only a few inches and it'll all be up in Knocka & Churchfield anyway.

Brenireland

gbee wrote: »

Cork is the largest chunk of realestate in Ireland. It's about 50 miles north/south

And just short of 100 miles east/west. Cork City itself is just about on the pivotal dividing line east/west. It's on the coast and benefits from the warming effects of the Gulf Stream.

It's historically enjoyed good weather and an island in the harbour is called FOTA, that's from the Irish meaning warm turf, there is an exotic garden there as there are dotted along the SSW coast.

It was recently pointed out by another poster to these boards that Cork and the SSW coast may have been free of ice during the last ice age ~ and we have a unique species of frog.

what is this species called?

leahyl

gbee wrote: »

You know that's only a few inches and it'll all be up in Knocka & Churchfield anyway.

God damn Knocka!:mad:

gbee

Brenireland wrote: »

what is this species called?

http://www.nature.com/hdy/journal/v102/n5/full/hdy2008133a.html

Above is the link that was posted for me earlier.

eigrod

Pangea wrote: »

Ah bollocks,

:D:D

Vudgie

I am not suggesting that there has been a complete downgrade but the broad view appears to be that the snow may not be as widespread as once thought. That is obviously not to say that there will be no snow of course.

Can someone explain to me what has actually changed between last night and now that may suggest this?

force eleven

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18617.png

A bit nippy over the snowfields in the midlands next week?

To be honest, as people have said, this must be almost a nowcast event for the weekend and we'll see what Christmas week shapes up like after that...:rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

Vudgie wrote: »

Can someone explain to me what has actually changed between last night and now that may suggest this?

i think the slight shift eastwards of the sweep of arctic air has brought the maritime influence of the atlantic more into play for Ireland. As easily as the models can downgrade snow potentila they can upgrade just as quickly in the next runs

sunbabe08

gbee wrote: »

You know that's only a few inches and it'll all be up in Knocka & Churchfield anyway.

fine by me, just around the corner from those two places anyway.

snaps

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think the slight shift eastwards of the sweep of arctic air has brought the maritime influence of the atlantic more into play for Ireland. As easily as the models can downgrade snow potentila they can upgrade just as quickly in the next runs

Oh dear.

WolfeIRE

remember what MT said this morning

Any organised milder trend may have to wait quite a while whatever the models may depict today, we can't totally trust these warming indications given the past history. And the large-scale pattern favours renewed cold outbreaks at frequent intervals even if one or two days do turn a bit milder.

Speak Now

snaps wrote: »

Oh dear.

You're still in the firing line.

snaps

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

You're still in the firing line.

Not if the Atlantic is coming into play. I remember last week when it turned, i could go 20kms east towards Claremorris and the weather was 5c colder during the day.

lucy2010

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think the slight shift eastwards of the sweep of arctic air has brought the maritime influence of the atlantic more into play for Ireland. As easily as the models can downgrade snow potentila they can upgrade just as quickly in the next runs

Hi WOlfe - I played the gfs earlier & it the purple band looked to be coming down NE from Scotland - If its moved more eastwwards than before does that mean we are at more of a threat on the east coast?

Monkaa

there was a guy from met eireann on east coast fm this morning who was saying this cold spell coming wont be as bad as the last cold spell and temperatures wont be as low....Im kinda beginning to think this wont be real bad this weekend...hopefully im proved wrong! It may snow but it prob wont last long