Severe weather: Snow and Ice and sub zero temperatures from Thursday

WolfeIRE

Monkaa wrote: »

there was a guy from met eireann on east coast fm this morning who was saying this cold spell coming wont be as bad as the last cold spell and temperatures wont be as low....Im kinda beginning to think this wont be real bad this weekend...hopefully im proved wrong! It may snow but it prob wont last long

Met Eireann were talking to Wicklow people on East Coast radio. It would be hard to top the one ft of snow in Wicklow. Hardly an earth shattering comment from ME.

The rest of the country is a different matter and very often overlooked by the media and ME alike. There is likely to be some very heavy snow in the NW and Ulster in particular between Thursday afternoon and Friday night. This is the very least of what can be expected from the upcoming cold spell. Expect significant snowfall in other areas between Thursday and Monday, which although hard to idenfity in terms of locarions is an inevitability

Vudgie

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think the slight shift eastwards of the sweep of arctic air has brought the maritime influence of the atlantic more into play for Ireland. As easily as the models can downgrade snow potentila they can upgrade just as quickly in the next runs

Thanks for the response, much appreciated.

I really find it incredible that our little country is so marginal and dependent on so many factors to bring snow. Long range forecasting appears to be almost impossible here.

Keep up the good work!

WolfeIRE

lucy2010 wrote: »

Hi WOlfe - I played the gfs earlier & it the purple band looked to be coming down NE from Scotland - If its moved more eastwwards than before does that mean we are at more of a threat on the east coast?

Hi Lucy.

I would be inclined to wait for the next GFS run as this one seems to have been all over the place. Very hard to read anything from it other than the fact that anything is possible. Sorry for being so vague but I am being as vague as that last run was.

leahyl

GFS still looking good for Saturday for Cork.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i think the slight shift eastwards of the sweep of arctic air has brought the maritime influence of the atlantic more into play for Ireland. As easily as the models can downgrade snow potentila they can upgrade just as quickly in the next runs

Guys-this is one model run...and worse it's the gfs that sometimes can throw up 3 different scenarios every day.
Theres absolutely no point in reams of posts on just one gfs model run.
Here are a few facts.
1.Cold is coming.
2.It will be here for the weekend
3.It will snow wherever theres precipitation,though possibly mixed with sleet at times near coasts but I doubt it.
4.We don't know the positioning of that low to our south yet which has a crucial bearing on what happens through the weekend , never mind next week.
5.RELAX.

Not

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Met Eireann were talking to Wicklow people on East Coast radio. It would be hard to top the one ft of snow in Wicklow. Hardly an earth shattering comment from ME.

The rest of the country is a different matter and very often overlooked by the media and ME alike. There is likely to be some very heavy snow in the NW and Ulster in particular between Thursday afternoon and Friday night. This is the very least of what can be expected from the upcoming cold spell. Expect significant snowfall in other areas between Thursday and Monday, which although hard to idenfity in terms of locarions is an inevitability

Surely Wicklow got more than 1 foot of snow in the last cold spell ? South Dublin got a foot of the stuff - and that's not South Dublin county, that's the south of the Dublin city council area !

WolfeIRE

Not wrote: »

Surely Wicklow got more than 1 foot of snow in the last cold spell ? South Dublin got a foot of the stuff - and that's not South Dublin county, that's the south of the Dublin city council area !

therefore hard to top that as ME pointed out.

nacho libre

any further shift eastwards and it's not great for those who were originally favourite to get plastered first. i was afraid this would happen I hope it's an abberration, rather than the start of a new trend.

snow ghost

snaps wrote: »

Not if the Atlantic is coming into play. I remember last week when it turned, i could go 20kms east towards Claremorris and the weather was 5c colder during the day.

That was a different scenario snaps.

It shouldn't be like that this time. Anywhere East of me should be grand, and most probably much further West too, with that Northerly flow.

lucy2010

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Hi Lucy.

I would be inclined to wait for the next GFS run as this one seems to have been all over the place. Very hard to read anything from it other than the fact that anything is possible. Sorry for being so vague but I am being as vague as that last run was.

Thanks wolfe

No it just thought it looked odd if the NW was to get plastered yet this had the purple coming NE down from Scotland. eitherways I think everyone is gonna get their fair taste of it this weekend. There is snow still lying here which means the ground is cold - so anything else adding to it IMO is gonna freeze. I dont mind the snow its the ice that seems to cause the chaos on the roads here.

WolfeIRE

I know they are only computer generated forecasts but I have never seen this for Ennis
http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Ennis-EIXX0016
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=EIXX0016
http://www.accuweather.com/forecast.aspx?partner=netweather&metric=0&loc=EUR|IE|EI003|ENNIS
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/city_weather.html?cityID=353X16&tx_mgcityweatherstatic_pi1[cityIDuse]=353X16

All is not lost until Mary Harney sings Danny Boy

davidsr20

People seem to be not as positive as they were last night so what has changed do ye think the midlands or galway is in for any snow?

snow ghost

WolfeIRE wrote: »

All is not lost until Mary Harney sings Danny Boy

It also must be factored in - for those getting nervy - that the best snow creeps up and pounces like a rabid siberian tiger, it doesn't sit in the open saying look at me I'm coming to get you, it often hides in the long grass untill the last moment to makes its play.

H2UMrsRobinson

DominoDub

kevinoconnor wrote: »

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snow ghost

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

:D:D

sunbabe08

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Cork-EIXX0011


me likes

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Met eireann seem to say there will be rain on thursday.
From MT.s forecast It looks to me like the heavy snow for northwest doesnt look to be as bad as others where saying? 4-9cm is hardly snowmaggadon.
With the heavier 20cm mentioned for the east and south over the weekend

you should only believe in snowmageddon when you see it happening outside your window

WolfeIRE

davidsr20 wrote: »

People seem to be not as positive as they were last night so what has changed do ye think the midlands or galway is in for any snow?

the mood has changed with the latest GFS model output.

I am as positive about the prospects for snow as I was yesterday or in the last few days.

One run of one model does not determine the final outcome, especially cosndiering we are still 48-60 hrs out from the arctic airmass pushing south. Most if not all of the country can expect to see snow between Thursday eve and Monday. Beyond this is uncertain as a low pressure system attempts to sweep NE across Ireland on Tuesday. This in itself presents us with a classic front battleground where heavy snowfall can occur as a front meets cold air. At this stage, I am leaning more towards milder air winning out. However, when questions remain over the intervening period it would be pointless to definitively call this one so far out.

Forum has gone quiet for now. Snowboardsies will be back on soon enough.

sunbabe08

sweet jaysus it's gonna be cold with that wind. :eek:

leahyl

snow ghost wrote: »

It also must be factored in - for those getting nervy - that the best snow creeps up and pounces like a rabid siberian tiger, it doesn't sit in the open saying look at me I'm coming to get you, it often hides in the long grass untill the last moment to makes its play.

Your posts are hilarious!!

Not

Not wrote: »

Surely Wicklow got more than 1 foot of snow in the last cold spell ? South Dublin got a foot of the stuff - and that's not South Dublin county, that's the south of the Dublin city council area !

Closer to 3 feet in a wide area from rathdrum/Glenealy across to Aughrim and Tinahely all in south and mid co wicklow

WolfeIRE

HIRLAM model illustrates expected precipitation on Thursday http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm Click on Nedbor

nacho libre

[QUOTE=To_be_confirmed;69551517. Those events are pretty rare, and I've never seen an Atlantic front stall over Ireland in my 6 years of following meteorology online.
)[/QUOTE]

it happened regularly in '47. there are some parallels between this year and that year. just sayin':p

WolfeIRE

Perfect storm en route to Ireland http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Perfect-storm-en-route-to-Ireland---SEE-PHOTOS-111840199.html

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

it happened regularly in '47. there are some parallels between this year and that year. just sayin':p

and '63

My father often told us about '47 and there was still snow up on the high ground at the start of june!
I know one thing,this is day 18 since the east snow started and we still have 3 inches of it in the field here.
No one under 60yrs of age round this part of coastal south wicklow can ever remember such prolonged continuous cover happening before-that one snowy period albeit with snowfall every day for 7 days and a total period of snow cover of 18days-it's not thawing much today either so it's likely to be still there on thursday for the rain to snow event.
That will be almost 3 weeks of continuous snow cover.
It's a sign and not a good one if you don't like snow.

vibe666

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Perfect storm en route to Ireland http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Perfect-storm-en-route-to-Ireland---SEE-PHOTOS-111840199.html

aren't those quotes from MT? Canadian based Irish meteorologist sounds like him?

maybe everyone knows this already and i'm just a bit slow.

irish1967

All snow fans (myself included) are quietly waiting. The temptation to go YEAHHHHHHH is strong but we all realise we could jinx it. This mornings uncertainty about amounts, timings and location of snow makes me feel like I am waiting on exam results.

Brenireland

vibe666 wrote: »

aren't those quotes from MT? Canadian based Irish meteorologist sounds like him?

maybe everyone knows this already and i'm just a bit slow.

Yeah I taught the same to be honest

Auvers

Now this what I call snow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_uscBJn0p0