Severe weather: Snow and Ice and sub zero temperatures from Thursday

Elnin09

Apologies if posted already !


Subject: Fwd: FW: Weather Update

Thursday 9th December www.irishcentral.com

Weather experts are no predicting that Ireland will get even colder next week as a "once-in-a-lifetime" Siberian weather event brings further freezing temperatures and another six inches of snow.

Brian Gaze, meteorologist with The Weather Outlook says next week will be even colder than the last with the cold snap stretching to beyond Christmas. He believes this is a freak cold spell and something we will not see repeated in our lifetimes.

"The prospects for a white Christmas are good. Christmas Day itself may be very cold, with snowfall in places, and other areas already having snow on the ground.

"The cold is expected to persist beyond Christmas Day, but to break - at least temporarily - in time for new year."

"It's very unusual to have such an intense and long-lasting cold spell, especially this early in the winter," said Gaze.

"This cold spell is a once-in-a-lifetime event. We'll probably never see it again. It's being caused by repeated high pressure north of Britain, blocking mild weather from the west and allowing bitterly cold air from Siberia and the Arctic to sweep across the country.

"This weather pattern means medium-range forecast confidence is high, and the cold looks locked in.

"It's increasingly likely it will get even worse later next week, persisting through Christmas week and bringing very wintry conditions.

"Cold weather is expected to affect Ireland, with a risk of snow showers and severe overnight frosts. Inland, parts of Ireland could fall as low as -10C [14F].

"During the Christmas period itself, Ireland is at risk of persistent snow as weather fronts bringing precipitation may push in from the Atlantic, bringing up to six inches of snow.

The public are now getting angry as Met Eireann, the national meteorological services, failed to predict that this Arctic weather would continue.

Although the majority of roads have now been cleared footpaths and lesser used roads remain dangerous and covered with ice. Also the low temperatures have meant difficulties with water supplies in Dublin and part of Kildare. This has meant that water is being shut off for 12 hours a day.

odyboody

WolfeIRE wrote: »

HIRLAM model illustrates expected precipitation on Thursday http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm Click on Nedbor

As far as I was aware the HIRLAM model was one of the main models used by the met office, (I definitely recall Evelyn showing the animation before), If ME turn out to be correct in their forecast fair play to them, Nobody else is showing the milder forecast that they are.

Personally I can see there being an inquiry called for as to why they left it so late to warn everybody;)

Vudgie

I have to say I have found MET Eireann fairly accurate this winter so far so I wouldn't write them off yet. Most people will notice how vague they are being about the weekend which is a little disappointing but otherwise I imagine they will have it right, as in nothing dramatic until later in the weekend.

th3 s1aught3r

Metoffice.gov.uk

Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow
Sat 18 DecFurther snow showers are likely in many parts of the UK, some of these heavy and prolonged, with southern and western areas likely to be most affected. Additionally, there will be a continuing risk of widespread ice affecting untreated surfaces.
Issued at: 0118 Tue 14 Dec

Vego

I love these "once in a" thing to describe the weather ...last years snow and ice once in 40 year thing , the floods in cork etc that was a "once in a" thing

WolfeIRE

JOE B (dont know what the dog references are about)

TUESDAY NOON YOU MIGHT HAVE THOUGHT I KICKED YOUR DOG.
I have been looking back on posts. Nov 10th I believe the shrill sound of the coming chill came out for you, and the recent mild spell was touted way in advance and the colder spell now evident also.
But you might have thought I kicked your dog because I said the cold will be fading around Christmas.
I think maritime air, rather than Arctic air, is starting to take control the last 10 days of the month. This doesn't mean it's going to be 10 above normal, it means what it says, that in the LARGE SENSE it's going to warm up. That this may ruin dreams of a white Christmas for some, not all, well I don't know what you want me to say.
But I think the last 10 days of the month, and I use London, as an example, will average within 2F of normal. That it's over 8 BELOW normal now, that is saying a lot. But if it's a degree or two below normal, that is not extraordinary.. 8 below normal for the first two weeks, and the cold of the coming week I think, is.
By the way I love dogs, so I would never kick yours.
Ciao for now.

leahyl

leahyl wrote: »

May i ask who gave this forecast? Was it Ms. Siobhan "in the mix" Ryan? If so then i shall take this with a pinch of salt - she seems to have been educated in the Gerry Murphy School of Meteorology:D

no t'was abetter looking wan with a cute black dress that was paaaaaaaaaaaainted on her.

Meanwhile,the forecast has not changed.
By the way,met Eireann no doubt do look at ALL models and share opinions from all weather services europe and world wide and provide/exchange their own opinion.

BUT for direct forcasts over 3 days and they rarely get specific beyond 3 days,they use the ecm as a base it's very reliable in the short term.
They'll tweak it then with consultations with other met services.
Beyond 3 days,you'll always see them say something like "indicative" as then you really are subject to change
So as I said earlier,lads dont get too concerned or exited by one run or the other.
Instead average out the trend in them.

tjbrosnan

Deleted User wrote: »

no t'was abetter looking wan with a cute black dress that was paaaaaaaaaaaainted on her.

Meanwhile,the forecast has not changed.
By the way,met Eireann no doubt do look at ALL models and share opinions from all weather services europe and world wide and provide/exchange their own opinion.

BUT for direct forcasts over 3 days and they rarely get specific beyond 3 days,they use the ecm as a base it's very reliable in the short term.
They'll tweak it then with consultations with other met services.
Beyond 3 days,you'll always see them say something like "indicative" as then you really are subject to change
So as I said earlier,lads dont get too concerned or exited by one run or the other.
Instead average out the trend in them.

I would say that this is partly because long range forecasts are an important revenue stream for them so it doesn't make sense for them to give away this sort of information for free...

WolfeIRE

netweather issues highest possible weather alert for northern ireland
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alert;reg=7

80% confidence

fits

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I think maritime air, rather than Arctic air, is starting to take control the last 10 days of the month. .

there is hope!

I do like a bit of snow but I've had enough for this winter now

ninebeanrows

What is this i hear about the latest run being a downgrade!?

The run is excellent and would indicate potential for heavy snow almost anywhere.

With the polar vortex pushing over the UK and Ireland it is making forecasting exact locations for snowfall to be extremely difficult, As multiple low centers develop across the region.

Widespread and disruptive snow is possible and likely across parts of the country from Friday right through until early next week and possibly beyond.

Thursday sees the 'Greenland Express' push quickly south across Ireland in the early afternoon. Dramatic drops in temperatures are expected during daytime hours with widespread squall showers of rain/hail/sleet and progressively snow spreading south. A dramatic temperature drop through the day will occur. Taking just as an example Dublin, a temperature of 7/8c is possible around 10am but by around 3-4pm the temperature will have fallen to 0c or -1c, so significant 9c temperature drops will happen in the space of just a few hours and probably occur more rapidly that that on the passage of the cold front which will have intense cold embedded behind.

Then for Thursday night, heavy snow showers will hit Northern Ireland and right down western areas. Just one or two showers making it across to the east.

Possibility of slight rise in temperatures in the west and southwest Friday AM as a feature builds to the northwest, bringing the possibility of widespread and heavy snow showers throughout the country.

By Saturday morning the polar vortex will be sitting on top of us. Temperatures will range from -3c to +2c with variable winds. At this stage more organized systems will be developing all around our coasts and pushing inland at times giving significant falls of snow. Pinpointing locations at this point is difficult. At the moment i would say initially more western regions at greater risk during Saturday with the risk transferring to the east during Sunday and Monday.

I would imagine that during the period from Friday - Wednesday, most areas will have received a significant fall of snow (>10cms).

Take care.

M.T. Cranium

Had a look at the 06z GFS and the only real change suggested there is to upgrade the severity of the outbreak on Friday with a fast-moving reinforcement of the Thursday initial blast. This may give a mechanism for snow showers to reach the east and south at times, rather than keeping most of the initial two days snow potential confined to the west and north.

Beyond that, enhanced potential for snowfalls of 5-20 cms through the weekend and Monday, and my usual cautionary comments about GFS warming trends past day seven.

Our readers in all parts of Ulster, Connacht and parts of West Munster, as well as now north and west Leinster, should be on alert for rapid onset of wintry conditions mid-day Thursday with several waves of heavy snow possible in some areas on strong NW winds. Don't be caught napping by the direction here, this air is super-cold and can withstand the Atlantic passage. There are sure to be reports of rain and hail at sea level where this sweeps in, but 90% of residents of the affected region are not at sea level, and even those who are may have to drive places.

I envisage a snowfall map by late Friday with 5-10 cms over a large part of inland Connacht, most of Ulster, and pockets of north Leinster, as well as some inland parts of Clare, Kerry and west Cork. Further east in Munster, it may be more hit and miss but these will be powerful streamers with potential to bring some snow almost across the country, and there will also be troughs embedded to promote some convection. Amounts of 2-5 cms could fall almost anywhere. For Dublin, the most likely amount by late Friday would be 1-3 cms coming from a few passing snow showers. Some places will get no covering but maybe fewer than we were speculating earlier.

Friday night and early Saturday could be bitterly cold with clearing skies following this fresh snow. Then outbreaks of snow appear likely through the weekend and these could even include normally temperate south coast regions because a lot of the emphasis will be on bands coming in from the southeast in association with low pressure circling around the west and later south coasts. But the whole country including the NI portions of Ulster are likely to be significantly affected with considerable snow potential extending across Britain also.

I would say the risk of disruptive amounts of snow is increasing with these model runs trending towards a snowy pattern. Will update my perspective after the 12z runs have come out.

leahyl

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Had a look at the 06z GFS and the only real change suggested there is to upgrade the severity of the outbreak on Friday with a fast-moving reinforcement of the Thursday initial blast. This may give a mechanism for snow showers to reach the east and south at times, rather than keeping most of the initial two days snow potential confined to the west and north.

Beyond that, enhanced potential for snowfalls of 5-20 cms through the weekend and Monday, and my usual cautionary comments about GFS warming trends past day seven.

Our readers in all parts of Ulster, Connacht and parts of West Munster, as well as now north and west Leinster, should be on alert for rapid onset of wintry conditions mid-day Thursday with several waves of heavy snow possible in some areas on strong NW winds. Don't be caught napping by the direction here, this air is super-cold and can withstand the Atlantic passage. There are sure to be reports of rain and hail at sea level where this sweeps in, but 90% of residents of the affected region are not at sea level, and even those who are may have to drive places.

I envisage a snowfall map by late Friday with 5-10 cms over a large part of inland Connacht, most of Ulster, and pockets of north Leinster, as well as some inland parts of Clare, Kerry and west Cork. Further east in Munster, it may be more hit and miss but these will be powerful streamers with potential to bring some snow almost across the country, and there will also be troughs embedded to promote some convection. Amounts of 2-5 cms could fall almost anywhere. For Dublin, the most likely amount by late Friday would be 1-3 cms coming from a few passing snow showers. Some places will get no covering but maybe fewer than we were speculating earlier.

Friday night and early Saturday could be bitterly cold with clearing skies following this fresh snow. Then outbreaks of snow appear likely through the weekend and these could even include normally temperate south coast regions because a lot of the emphasis will be on bands coming in from the southeast in association with low pressure circling around the west and later south coasts. But the whole country including the NI portions of Ulster are likely to be significantly affected with considerable snow potential extending across Britain also.

I would say the risk of disruptive amounts of snow is increasing with these model runs trending towards a snowy pattern. Will update my perspective after the 12z runs have come out.

No M.T. please don't say stuff like that.........i know you have to but....:D please let it be powerful enough to reach us in the real capital!

ciaranm

Now that's more like it.

thanks fellas

123balltv

Cheers M.T great info
I'm heading out for Christmas shopping im going to spread the good news

Tom Cruises Left Nut

123balltv wrote: »

Cheers M.T great info
I'm heading out for Christmas shopping im going to spread the good news

Careful, might get punched by snow haters in the street !!

Brenireland

t|nt|n wrote: »

Careful, might get punched by snow haters in the street !!

lol:D

123balltv

t|nt|n wrote: »

Careful, might get punched by snow haters in the street !!

I'll throw big, massive snowballs in their face nobody will spoil my fun
rub the snow in their face's

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

No M.T. please don't say stuff like that.........i know you have to but....:D please let it be powerful enough to reach us in the real capital!

....Sorry whats this now?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

....Sorry whats this now?

hahahaha

Winger_PL

Iancar29 wrote: »

....Sorry whats this now?

Warsaw?

leahyl

Iancar29 wrote: »

....Sorry whats this now?

You know i'm right!

premiercad

That's one mean looking cold front!

Vudgie

Hmmm it appears I may have been premature returning my father's shovel!!!!

If anything this incoming bad weather has forced me to buy my Christmas presents early which is a good thing!

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

You know i'm right!

Ah now for that... i hope dublin sees more snow than cork,... ONCE AGAIN ..:P

Iancar29

Winger_PL wrote: »

Warsaw?

YOu go away would ya!....haha :pac:

th3 s1aught3r

premiercad wrote: »

That's one mean looking cold front!

Is that depression over Scandenavia a Polar Low ?

ninebeanrows

I don't mean to be rude to anyone:D

However there is an increasing number of crappy posts on here, can people refrain from the 2 word posts etc and not have too many unrelated jokes and the likes!

Just makes finding the good, interesting posts much more difficult for all of us.

Try and make all your posts constructive Thanks!

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

I don't mean to be rude to anyone:D

However there is an increasing number of crappy posts on here, can people refrain from the 2 word posts etc and not have too many unrelated jokes and the likes!

Just makes finding the good, interesting posts much more difficult for all of us.

Try and make all your posts constructive Thanks!

Sorry Weathercheck - will try keep them to a minimum:o

Iancar29

K sorry... back on TOPIC!

Heres what the view for thursday-friday seems to be.
ANy corrections kindly taken