Severe weather: Snow and Ice and sub zero temperatures from Thursday

mvron

LOL - too true. However, at least it might put people on their guard in the event that it does happen

piskins72

DOCARCH wrote: »

Oh oh - that's the death knell!!! Remember the 'hurricane'?

and she said about the -10 temps

Brenireland

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1213/1224285404417.html

Yummy nice weather for N/NW

nacho libre

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Very supprised he said that,

true.
considering he said on a broadcast, around about this time last year, that when it comes to forecasting snow these things can come back to kick you in the teeth. it could be downgraded or upgraded between now and then, so it's unwise to be definitive about anything at this stage.

snow ghost

Brenireland wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1213/1224285404417.html

Yummy nice weather for N/NW

What's with all this 'yummy yummy' Bren, do you have a taste for yellow snow or something?

Trotter

Does he know something we dont? Its hard to see how his call on it, and the now famous 'epochal' description tie in together.

Brenireland

haha no I just love to see what reactions it gets sorry,although snow is yummy to im sure...

200motels

snow ghost wrote: »

What's with all this 'yummy yummy' Bren, do you have a taste for yellow snow or something?

Don't you eat that yellow snow watch out where those huskies go.

Villain

Trotter wrote: »

Does he know something we dont? Its hard to see how his call on it, and the now famous 'epochal' description tie in together.

I think the main difference is he is only looking as far as Friday Trotter.

mickger844posts

mvron wrote: »

Impending cold weather number 1 item on 5.30 TV3 news

Full ramp mode on TV3 news, they obviously look at the Weather Boards

mvron

Martin King only spoke of snow/ice for North & West on Thurs & Fri

darkman2

Well we can put an end to the pointless bickering because David Rogers just said on RTE radio what has been said here by us all day.

Disruptive snowfall possible everywhere by the weekend, mostly in the North and West on Thursday and Friday.

snaps

The reason why it wont be ramped up is because it wont affect Dublin to start off. If it was Dublin that was being affected, we wouldnt hear the last of it.

Villain

darkman2 wrote: »

Well we can put an end to the pointless bickering because David Rogers just said on RTE radio what has been said here by us all day.

Disruptive snowfall possible everywhere by the weekend, mostly in the North and West on Thursday and Friday.

Its not pointless bickering some people are been alarmist outside of reliable time frames.

I love Snow more than anyone but some people need to be realistic.

patneve2

I'm still quite uncertain on how far south the showers will push in on Friday. With such a strong flow and such low upper temps (at 500 hpa) wouldn't showers be able to travel right down the country? Anyone can help me? Troughs, more organized bands of showers?

darkman2

Villain wrote: »

Its not pointless bickering some people are been alarmist outside of reliable time frames.

I love Snow more than anyone but some people need to be realistic.

I don't know about anyone else but I have been very realistic about the forecast. Telling people it's going to be grand when it won't be is irresponsible. This is a severe cold period coming by Irish standards.

Villain

darkman2 wrote: »

I don't know about anyone else but I have been very realistic about the forecast. Telling people it's going to be grand when it won't be is irresponsible. This is a severe cold period coming by Irish standards.

I wasn't talking about your posts D2.

Iancar29

Jasus!.... when i heard " and more than 50cms of snow..."

I was like....:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

M.T. Cranium

This may tend to look like just a dry northerly with local wintry showers, but the depth of cold air in this "Greenland express" is the deal maker, and the transfer of the polar vortex southwest across Ireland towards Kerry is likely to turn the wind flow around into more of a southeast or easterly flow by Sunday ... so the main dynamics of this cold spell are likely to be

(a) initial blast of sudden cold, locally heavy snow in north and west, but some brief squally showers elsewhere (Thursday into early Friday)

(b) settling in of deep cold aided by new snow cover, slack winds, clearing skies, and feed from very cold pockets over Britain, possibly giving severe minimum temps (below -12 C) by Saturday morning ... this may continue in the north into Sunday morning.

(c) possible snowfall events of moderate or even heavy amounts, affecting the south and east, as lows form to the south of Ireland and interact with the deep cold in place.

Could also state that the GFS model has been almost routinely losing the plot after 6-8 days with its tendency to allow spurious mild rebounds from the southwest courtesy of deep lows that end up being much further south at event time. In other words, any depictions of sudden breakdowns and thaws have to be treated with caution. Sooner or later, one will happen (the recent mini-thaw was more of an anticylonic interval that was a necessary step in building up the Greenland block). Looking back at past "severe" or epochal type winters, the Greenland high tends to become semi-permanent so we have to factor in that with these synoptics, there has to be a reasonable chance of a long-lasting cold spell. There is even colder air waiting in parts of Russia to move towards Scandinavia and add a bitter continental feed to the mix, and then the North Sea is chilling rapidly thanks to the outpouring of near-freezing water from the Baltic and from rivers running into the North Sea. All the building blocks are in place for some very severe winter weather.

Any sort of responsible probability analysis would say that the chances of disruption from snow in Ireland and the southern U.K. must be higher than normal by a factor of five or even ten to one. But there is nothing quite carved in stone yet. I think the period Sunday to Tuesday is very likely to see snow in parts of Ireland, let's leave it at that for now. Potential amounts would range from slight to very considerable, won't speculate with numbers.

Gonzo

I get the feeling tho this cold spell wont be nearly as severe in terms of snow depth on the east and Dublin as the last one was. (still have lying snow from last cold spell)

Musicman2000

Gonzo wrote: »

I get the feeling tho this cold spell wont be nearly as severe in terms of snow depth on the east and Dublin as the last one was. (still have lying snow from last cold spell)

Nobody knows how much snowfall will hit. you could get more than the last time or less, Its a wait and see situation

H2UMrsRobinson

I've been here before so I'm going to be very patient and see what happens. I'm a little bit excited but I've seen it all fall apart in a matter of 24 hours.

I've warned a few of the girls in work to get all their Xmas shopping done this week as it will be "quite" cold at the weekend and we "may" get a bit of snow. I had to try really hard not to use the words snowmagedden or snowpocalypse. I also thought it best not to mention the speeding inbound express from Greenland arriving at Platform -10. It nearly killed me but I showed restraint...they already think I'm a bit of a nutter as it is, this would have confirmed it beyond all reasonable doubt.

M.T. Cranium

Just looking at the ECM coming in, and the UKMO finished to end of its run, both of these models have snowstorm potential for Ireland as early as Saturday (afternoon/evening) into Sunday. The GFS earlier was a bit slower to develop that potential. The GEM was looking similar to the above but appeared to be too weak on cold advection compared to previous runs and other models.

In other words, the prospect of a snowstorm is now emerging on 120-144h model maps and in fact Dublin could be right in the middle of the heaviest snow from this due to sea effect enhancement.

If these trends continue then I think forecasts will start to reflect this potential by tonight.

goat2

wildefalcon wrote: »

What IS it with Cork residents and snow? It seems like every weather thread is peppered with people asking

"will it snow in Corrk, boy?"

Yes, it will snow in Cork.

Happy?

it does not snow in cork, here we are no ice, no frost, just a beautiful sea breeze, cool but not cold, hoping to get a covering

maiden

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

I've been here before so I'm going to be very patient and see what happens. I'm a little bit excited but I've seen it all fall apart in a matter of 24 hours.

I've warned a few of the girls in work to get all their Xmas shopping done this week as it will be "quite" cold at the weekend and we "may" get a bit of snow. I had to try really hard not to use the words snowmagedden or snowpocalypse. I also thought it best not to mention the speeding inbound express from Greenland arriving at Platform -10. It nearly killed me but I showed restraint...they already think I'm a bit of a nutter as it is, this would have confirmed it beyond all reasonable doubt.

Well i did the opposite! Told all my friends this morn to get all their xmas shopping done before weds and what did they do??

They laughed at me!!!! Told me I had lost the plot!

And its all thanks to this thread that i have all my shopping done and am prepared

H2UMrsRobinson

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

in fact Dublin could be right in the middle of the heaviest snow from this due to sea effect enhancement.

MT - you rock !!! Now deep breaths and bring the blood pressure back down a notch

Trotter

I just want to thank MT, Maq and all the others who have done such a good job keeping us up to speed on this.

My better half is due to give birth to our first baby on Christmas day, and this info means I can be prepared and have relatives/friends with 4wd vehicles ready to help me out with the short spin to hospital if needs be.

Although it is essentially a 'hobby' for many, the info is doing some real good for me and 'the boss'.

We're in Waterford, so Im watching those south coast reports carefully.

So.. Thanks!

gally74

i think the mood in ireland tends to be that we dont get cold winters anymore, but i remeber the 80's as a kid and long periods of cold frost.

im sensing an upgrade in MT's forecast.

i think its unfair of met eir to not foreaorn people, at let them know it may come, i think the shops etc. must be putting pressure on as its a big weekend for shopping etc for Christmas. but its not fair eon people who could take a day off to travel or shop etc. on Thursday.

at least briquetts are cheaper this winter, 10 for 33 euro in galway

channaigh

so if it does start snowing say saturday/sunday is it going to last for a few days or up to xmas does anyone know?? i live on top of a hill should i go and get all the santa things in i wonder

Harps

UKMO showing -12 uppers for Ulster on Thursday!