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Lenihan chances of losing his seat in the General Election

Dots1982 · 2010-12-13 11:18:46

Hi All I'm wondering what people think of the possibility that Lenihan might lose his seat in the next general election. In 2007 he topped the poll ahead of Joan Burton and Leo Vadakhar and Joe Higgins lost his seat. I assume these will all be standing in the same constituency again (dublin west) and they are all strong…

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#32 15-12-2010 11:05am
Bottle_of_Smoke

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I don't think you understand the constituency - Lenihan gets his vote from the Castleknock area. So Lenihan voters are not likely to switch allegiance to SF. Labour's Joan Burton will pick up many of the disillusioned Lenihan supporters.

The SF traditional voters may come from the Mulhudart, Corduff, Ladyswell end of the constituency, but because this is the base of Joe Higgins, SF won't get a look in.

SF will improve their percentage share of the vote, but getting elected here is highly unlikely.

It all depends on what way Lenihan voters go. Probably toward FG/Labour and Higgins I'd suspect.

However, Sinn Fein have received a lot of national interest and support recently due to Pearse Doherty being articulate and forcing the election, as well as big Jarry entering Irish politics. They will work hard on the ground. If Joe higgins is in the public eye he could well win on a surplus, with transfers going to Sinn Fein.

The constituency is also changing, would be interesting to see who the new voters tended to go for in previous elections.

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