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question on ECM charts

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  • 13-12-2010 6:49pm
    #1
    inabina
    Registered Users Posts: 631 ✭✭✭


    http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php

    hi there

    what difference between "run deterministe" (deterministic?) and "run ensembliste" (Ensemble?) on the ecm charts?


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    #2
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Deterministic Forecast is the Operational run which is the main run. It's the main run because it is the highest resolution so it basically has the most detail.

    The ensembles are a collection of other lower resolution runs with their own preculiar biases run at the same time as the Operational run. Generally different outcomes are achieved the further out each run goes. When all the runs are completed they are gathered together to get a firmer understanding of the likelyhood of a particular scenario playing out. Basically when transferred to graphs each set can give an immediate idea of how likely a solution is. If all the lines for different variables like temperature or cloud cover or precipitation are clustered close together on the graph the likelyhood is high, when they spread out confidence is low. Each ensemble member can be viewed independently aswell.

    What you are asking about is the median run. It is the middle outcome of all the runs of a set of ensemble members so can give a good, allbeit vaguer, idea of what the most likely scenario is. Very useful and important in modern day forecasting.

    I hope that helps.


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